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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version (2000)

Chapter: 1 Energy Setting for China and the United States

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Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 17
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 18
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 19
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 20
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 21
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 22
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 23
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 24
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 25
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 26
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 27
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 28
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 29
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 30
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 31
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 32
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 33
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 34
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 35
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 36
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 37
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 38
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 39
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 40
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 41
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 42
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 43
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 44
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
×
Page 45
Suggested Citation:"1 Energy Setting for China and the United States." National Research Council. 2000. Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States--Chinese Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Page 46

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fit 29 I~, ~~ T ~~, 1R Ok' ~~' ~I~, Do 1998 ~ 6 ~, ~'~V1~, ~~ ~~'~ 15~ T ~1 +~1l'~'~ (') ~~+ 1996 A, + ./!,, ~ ~~, A m~ );; 1997 $1~ 5 LIZ m3 into 2000 $~ 10 LIZ m3 (0.04EJ)' 3flJ 2010 $~ 1J 100 LIZ m3 (0.4EJ)o ];~;~, J~'~ 1.1 hi ~ AIR ( 1.2EJ ) '~t 6%O ~~ 11.5 OOZE (Ed, 1998)0 ~ 1- 1 A; TORI Ok ~ 1 - 1 ~~ ~ Ok ~~ ~ ~ a · I,,,; · ~ik~J~lY~I~ · '* . A · ~~ · ~~ =~1~* · ~~*~* —A* . ~,~'~ · ~,1~11~'~ ~,1~:~174 a ;~ ~p~'~*~ up ~~ jlIJ art, ~~f ~ it: pa/, O (LNG) ~N ',, ~~i~ ~-~5k~r~*v;~bt3~ rid, 1~1 am ;1~@ o IT IMPEL

30 7~ Into j~1~;~ 1~141;~ ~~4l~1~1~;~b] %~~/~'~1'~; ~1~, ~ I t t i ~1~; Hi ~~ ~ h~ ~~ LIME, ~~ —~ ~~ Let 74;i5i~7~f~ I \lit~ T'~\ll~o ~~34;fj[,F~ ~ ARES UP Ad 1~1~113~,~1~a~;~,l~o all GEE ~~, ~~ll~tt A, ~~, k1~— ELI ~ ~i'§flJ ~'~ o ~~, —~~fL~/~'~ ~~ Am 70~1~1~ [E~iE Do ~ij~IFi~f~T~lltiti7 (USDOE)` ~~ (EPA) ', + I~8J~;~;~lE ~~>lJ#~;~~ >f~1TiJ6~o D. ~'.~ 1) * 1997 $, ~1341~i~ 39EJ (37quads) ~1, fit 2020 $,~I'h~1~7~ 50EJ (48 quads)O YE~l]Ll~;~i'~ ~~ 15~}F)~k7~ 40%; 1~ ~~ ~;~1~1 ~bt~;~~ ~~I~llt~tl ~7~F Jo Fit ~i~li~, ~ h1~15i~)~;*~i~4Xi~ebj~;!~0o fIJ 2020 $,~~ E0~V~. 1% A, ICED 1SEJ (14 quads) ~~IJ 11 EJ (lO.S quads)O ~~*~ ~~, ~~, ~*~0 ~'~3~ ~ ~~ ~'~'~1~ ~ o

31 1997 At, ~~'t'~'~,0~—A, If 2020 A, ~,0~,~ 2/30 1997 A, ~~,~'~ i] 1000 /, Id 2020 ~~IJ 1600 To ~~'~ ~~P~;~n~35~,~ 1gg7 $~ 39% 2020 ~~ ~50%(EIA, 1999)0,~nni~(ti~ ~~,tD, ~1997$~J11% JIJ 2020 Ebb] 20%~i~ 30%, i~Pi~'~ ~~ ~0 2) *to I 7~81 ~~ 17%~lt1384l4, 1997 $, .607 I (7.1EJ), ~0 If, 1993 $, +~ ~ lo, 1996 $, +~n lo, ~dflJ 2000 $, I 5000 ~~ (2.1EJ) A;'' I 2020 $, In JO /;~] 2.2 ~Z~(9.2EJ)~' ~a~i~[l 1.3 ~Z~(6EJ)~o ill:, 19,000 I; (ail 70%~'~l) Eli emit, ~~P)c~Ul?~b~l~i`~ To I :~'~ ', Do H at, ~P@11~1b~l]5~ nn 60%~ 30%~7k~ 10%~;i~ 3) ~18~*t~t5z9tl^~ 74~ ~~-~,gt`~ytJ~ TAR T ~, ~ ~~ 2020 $~lT 1/3 Do I~l¢5i~~i~$0i~~itil~~i¢~;tl;~~ to ~ @~7'~ "LEA A" ELF 46 EJ(44quads)7IJ "i~i~£/li]:i'~ 14 ;~f~,~,~ ,,, i, T~,~bElBi~i'~o

32 {fir" IBM 56EJ(~ 53quads)0 ART, find 2020 I, ~1'1 `~4i`~ 8%O )~lJl5~ ~~+,~I]~l~'~k~ 1~1.8(Z~(~1997 ~)0 +~'741~'~'~'~0 h~ ~~'/~ ~#, For ~~!t ~~ f l;~;t~*~.~ o l~;i5~ ~n I HE {Eii~;i~# bowl, If, ~l~l0~T`11 ?t'~§u~`I `1k ~~,~ ~~%IJ~,~ o 74 + ~~ ~ JO = 8~, ~IJ 2020 ~7'~ ( 1000 /) ~~ 400 to 4) ~8IJ~i=~ft ~~'~T ~~ ~ ~~` ~* 1~, k1~ "I ~~` ~1~ ~ Hi" (I; C~IItl~;t~i~ 1997)o ~5I7~;~~k~ELl5I. Al I P] ~ o up ~15~ T ~i;] ~~ 40 ~ ~e: ~~;h ~~'~ ~~ 1~15~Ti1kb9~4~*~)~O ~ 1-2 ~Ii11~J4 it T~5~` IF~71to *~,~`, t4~flJ 07k~o 1-2rp~l]5~j~Tillr~,~* 4b~ · ~~'~N . At' ~~ ~~ ~~ soon ~1~'~ · ~~'~` ~1

33 · ~'~'~'~'74~ · ,~` A' · · ' · · ' · ~~ · ~~* · ' · ''I ~: ~~, ~~* · ~~7k~'~m~7k~ (-art` ma) Act' ~~* · -c Am · 1~'~ ~~'~'~-~* · '* · '''* · ~~ffl~ · '~1+ ~*` '~1 · I'* · ~~* · ~~* · ~7k~J~t'~ Hi · i'* · ~~* · ~~* ,J>~UK~* · ' (amp) ~~*

34 E. ~~ 1) * A,~ +, ~14$ 05 Do ~1'~, ~1~1~t~Eh 1997 ~1 99GW, ei\`hA'~l~l/1 18%, Tl3$71d 2020 ~~J 50GW, ~kt;t],~1~1 7°/0 (EIA, 1998)o 4;lE2 5;~1`bli~1~ 65 J~O ~~ 2003 ~75~f~;~j~:~ ant; o ~;~:~ ~1~1~;~(NRC)~1 7~3iIJi4:~] 20 ~'bJ14~i~, e'~1~7 Rio 1998 ~~, ~+tW~F~ 1~ A, ~~ Id, if jE~+ ED ~ o IBM, ~~ ~~*~ ~;~ o ~ T~;~ t~ §1~1 {~5iJ~, ~@~;77~ is WE 1996 ~1 75°/0 |31fIJ 2020 Alit 85% O ~~ ti~1~, Fuji ~~YE~lL4lfit~it~;i~ lull Jo 75J7 L'1~1~ , T~3:,~11Fttl1l~o ,, 74~f~r~17~# be Job; o {_iil~i I ME ~i~47~h-;!~;tl,4, ~~74C)t~l~ti~i$to leg Ace, X, ~~+~`o T~Tt4~ ~ o Hi, Ok, ~~ - '7

t~ (MOX) bins 35 2) ~~*~ ~;lJ~]I~+J(t~lt o ~ ~~J~ ~ 300~ ~7k~ ~T 1991 To ~~ (~ I 900MW raked ~ 1994 ~~ ~s~153o ~ IBM 2.IGW ;1~'-~- ij~ 1.3% ~,0 6.4GW ~~ ~~: ~~ ~ ~~—~ ( ~~ + Dicta 600 1~7k~) ~1~ 2002 ~~ 2003 ~~; ~~ (it Act, ~~ 900~7k~) ~~T 2002 $~ 2003 $~; ( ~~ 700~ C^DU ~7k~ ) ~~+ 2003 $ ~; I (~1,000MW~7k~) ~12004 2005 Do ~~+ ~~tiJ~iJ'~, THEY'D I, my' to ~~ Ji;Vi~}~o WAVE ~ it 13000MW ~7k~)~b]~k~o !~1 )~, 1tH~p~E0~;%J 2010 $~ 20GW' ~I] 2020 $ 40GWo ,—l IE~i~o +~;~m~3~ MOX imp it o m~e`~:~l~+lz~R;~I~il~m,1 :£i~, 74~if~1~1~Ll~EEI to m ~ ( IAEA ) ~ o + ~~l7~ ~~ ~ ED o UP IBM At (WANG) ~~kl~i£~ Do

36 3) ~~k 74~'~7RT, art Do ~~,~, IN 2020 'I'm 4~450 ~ 4,800TWh +, ~~ 360 ~ 3751Who 021, A, fl0;~to JE~ (Clean Air Act) ~~, E;' NOX ~ SO2 ~~, IBM ;= ED ~ 20 ~3~btilF IRE o ma ~]El~lQi~J~ ~7 $)U I 2020 ~ P1~ ~~ O ~1~3~b]~T, SEMI co2 or ~~I0~$I]~, ~~ At c02 ~~ o + ~ ~ ~~V CO2 ~~ + ~ ~ ~ )~ CO2 ~~ $ Fill;~o i~ JP~ED~~J~li~j~h Hi Hal o YE~6l~ I¢]ilE~ lk1~1~~ ~*1~bt~J6~1J3t~W O ales HI ~ ~~ ~ ~~(IIASA)~8Bi~ ~ ( WEC ) J'~+—At: ~+ ;t—I: ~;~:~btnu'i~`, I; (i* ), ~~ ~~ l~ ~~ ~~ (150~300MW ~~) ~4~ ~~ ~ ~'~1~, ~~ *I ~ ~P~idlLo 4) 'em +~ 1997 ~~i'J~*~t~, 74 ok; ~~ ~~i~ ~~ Ail; ~

Ad' 37 ~; ({l~l~I~;~;~IF~) IBM T war rP ~ *I ~~*~/~l,~*~1'~ (PCAST) I ~~ (to *, )~` ~~ ~1'~, Act ~~: Am; ~~6b'~; ~~$n I i£iJ~ ~i~i~ 1~1~3~*` ~~iiQ~F;~o 74,51~, It I, ~11~* F~` ~~, <~In~`n Anal I ~~*V1~1~thk~o iNt~;idI;i;d ~~i~)~TV1~o I ( TYPO ) 54~Y[I~i~ al ;~;~I~J~fiLl#~F)i~l7~ A. o ~it'~;~i~, $~ i ;~ ./!,.< ik53~'~u'~, ~~ (NRC) T Alto ~~;~th~ (WANG) ~~~~, ;~1~;~b]—~~;o~=~fj~ (LAEA)~ ~l~74l~ ~t;kili~4J1~, ~3 demo ~=~/~/q~f V, I- 0~, ,, Jo +~ (MESA) ~~ (USNRC) ~1 ~~+ 1984 Hi, hlN~11` ~~` Do `i~ ~ pa ~ Fi`~;~t~h~ ~ ~~ ball o BENT ~~+ ~~l~iE;i T~~~b!1~o ~'J'1'1~7k~ ~ ~~v a, ~~t ~ Vlr£7~*o

38 Fib F. ~~ 1) * 1998 4~~ ,,~111~1~1 778GW, ~~ ~,~8u 3~620TWho 1998 4~i£~,~: ~~it 52%, ~~ 18%, , 15%, 7]CE~, 9%, ~'~:~, 4%~,l~'i~ Et,§~ 2%O fi] 2020 ~~b]E~;/J~3~;~iI] 4' 345 TWho ~F~ 363GW imp, 126GW ~~fl>~Tt~l~lPl~, ~ 237GW ~~tINIJ ;~ o ~~:~ ;- chin, ~~ ~*0 ~~~ £, Ail ~~ tn~ Ace I~nI~4k~ ,>~i£~k~,~bb ions ~ 2020 WE'LL ~,Ril~J§~TF~ I%o ~~ 2020 ~1~ '~ ~\lit~\ll/,~ Lo 1997 tori 15% 20%l5O ~~' ~m, 1980 ~~ 1996 ~1'~, ~~+ ~7 To ~I'~, ~~ ~ ~tt~tD, ; ~~;itt7~l~ 1 ill ~~)~ ;~~b] 1984 T~T 25%O 2) * +~_~v, 1997 fIJ 250GW, ~~u 1,081 to ~w At, I 15 Do ~~' ~~ ~~*~-~

39 To/ Is Leo --of p]~ ~10~ ~;~;~ ~ ~~;~ o It iB 1~1, m ~3~ Eh-tJ Vl~3~!637~Dllt~l~ ~ Vito ~~ltJ~ 1rt;kllb) ~ ~~L~ 2000 ~ 290 GW; 2010 I 500 GW (~7k~ 115 GW' ~~ 20 GW); 2020 I 700 GWo lH~, ~1~ ~~V {~ ~ Its It's al OF ~;/J It;klJi~`l9~l~ o I 14 Id ~7k~ill~11tE~:71~o 1998 ~7kit#F;;~ I; 8 4TWho ~;~3~11 +~7k~ ~~ o In= Q 18 GW Of ask ~~ I (DP7k~L') I*~;~P~o +~i~ 33Ok~, §~ 10%O ~ FEZ ~ 1 ~'~4 (, 70%) ~V)~lu'~~o 1998 it 4 +~ ( as, 1999)0 Id, ~~l to +~A~V1 Jo jiiIJ~'~`~t ice ~ Ad; o ~ E~ 3J~ ~ Fb] {I 1~ 1 ~1~1 ft 1~1 4;d ~ ~ m ~ ~ ~ ~ ( / \ ~ ;~;~1Ll4~'~) baa, ~i~ I, ~~, ~'~41M il~i~ edit ~ ~—~ o $~, ~;~$~$n 14%~ 18%, ,; by i; Jim o ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~1 ~75~;~`o ~ li!3th]~~~iF~i;~ Bide 2000 I ffi~#JJ (~9 240 <Z~)o T(~bil~ 1981 $~1 9%F~ 1990 $~ 8%, ~~ 71 l~1 ~J6~;~ 7-8 l~,~0 >~r~ ~~;~'J~

40 h'~ 75%%lJ~O ~~fIJ~I'~, ~, ~~, ~~, ~~25%l60 3) ~~*~ En art, ~~ ~l~llJ my o is T~¢J~;t~;~~.~, $~ 45°/0, ~~ 600/00 ~~ ~~ ~~%IJ 2020 ~ ~~ i~it 350TWhl70 ~1~1412~1bj~'~6ui~, ~;8lJ~TJ ~~ () 72~f~;~ CBM (~10 F,f,5~) ~~ HE o ~11 tt iIl~:b]~#b)'l~7R~;'~ ( T~ be' ) O ,~ a, tPI~14!,~b]~ !J~YE 2020 $1~;~1J 700GW ;, ~'~ F~0 4) ~'~q~ +~l~-o ~f~i (IG~]~Li/1;i<~ ~, ~ ~lilJ~Eti~i~l~ o Ida `~1~l~l1`Fll\5~<,6 swell o ~7~. ~~, ~~y ~~-~ ( ;~ ) BILL Woo J~;~llib~i1~l\5;ithpit~tLt~l~i~o emit imps I bay WE Am ~ jglJ~ ~J~ ~ b]~>J~I~ o DOE b\1~ al: 6 ~~, ~,#~r~ 5%' ~~ ~~5°/O 7% 7 ~~ipi~~ ~~i~;~l~l~tR;~ GDP ~~ 2.6%~ ~~,~ ~;~ 2.~%o

Fib 41 b'~'~ o FIJI ~54 ~1'1~, ,0~- (EPIC) , + Do G. I 1) ~~7k6~,~ 1997 ~~ 2% 1~2020~l3o/oo ~2020~, ~~ 013 (i~;01120%, fit 9OTWh)~ ~~ ( ij~ 50%), ;~;~1~1~1 (id 30 TWh) Ida ;tl, tilted, @, {E114 1998 ~7=F/ln.~Rl~ I 1997 ~ 1.88 GW ally ,RlEt,~ 2000 ~~1J[I§¢ lGW' 11~§ 3°/O~, ~ 2020 Hi 3.60 GWo l~i~,t§:~l, it (EPRI/DOE, 1997), ~~ ~ , ~1~ biro ~~' i~Eh+~t1~1`ti§~i~, :; ,, Vl~;~hEl6~;§l~lh~~J~li~;, PI I ~3~, T~ 2020 ~1~, ~tt);~Eh, O 1997 ~~H 72~ 10% (3601Wh) ~~6LbJ7kJJ~it, ~;~ 2020 I 7% (330TWh) 0 I, me 7k~P9b5~J~lLi~l}8 limb FUJI 1997 ~~ 12% 2020 orb 10%O ;~ 1-2 +~~ I,,; 1997 2020 ~3~ 1O

42 ;~ 1-2~'~ ~~ ( GW) it's 1997~ 2020 ~ ~7k~ 77 78 3 3.s ~;~ 3.4 4.3 *~ I.7 5.6 ;; 0.4 0.5 0.01 0.6 u I.9 3.6 88 97 2) ~~ i)tl~, +~Wi,~%'J7~ ~;~ Em ~~ a, ~~ ~ BEAT Id kilo ~iJ~t~$b~l~;~, ~~ 7~ Into ~~, ~ 2020 $ i~ui~tt;~;l~liLit~F~l~rP~t~ limbo ~ 1-3 rP3;J ~~, ~ 1-4 I 2020 $ 'to ;~ 1-3~ ~~ ~~'~J~ (~) it's ~n T~ ~1~ `~ §t 5,250,000 ^, 1.47 x lO9m3/$ ;~ it 540 ~/~ 74<~ ~~ >60,000,1~, ,~ 17,000 MW 34.3 ~Wh f~b ~~ 8~, Il u ~~ 5 by, 28.78 ~ ~~ 1.6981 X 104 TJ/$ J7l§b Am 150,000 I, 15 7~ >2000 I, 2.11 ~~ 19 ah, 167 1

-- b ~~ - 8.8 ~ ~7k~ - 5,000,000 m2 2,700,000 m2 342,000 I 7~ 20,000 m2 I; 150,000 43 ~~@~;~~ +@~Ehb)~/J>~ to 1998$;~ ~~ 240 I, 1997 ~~ 167 I, 1996 ~~ 57 to ~9 17 MW Jo A, ;~7F~ FIJI; 250 GWEN 31~;~;~;~J~ +~6~ IS;~;o ;~1~5~ tot 3-8 GWo ~l6bb~i`~—~71F~T ~, k1~l~o APIA ti~7k~;~ll~~ M;~{(if;ito 1996; I 5 ~77 m2 b]~7k$o j;1~titi~ii1J~Itl;~Ilt ~;~J);;13El~~ll;l~)do ~ lift T~;~Fi~if, 1996 ~~ 8.8 MWp (it ) ~1~`f~o 32~R~ - ill' Ill, ;~bJ/;~rh~3hrb ~! No Do t'J, k1 '~.~ 7~EL,~, +~i~,~05i~J~*~ T~;;~;t~o 1996~ 6~J't`~;it9.0EJ' ~90%V1 1~1~ i~l~~ Rio Rib ~# i]~r IN -l, iEI~'E)i'~37!~Tt~o ~ 1996 It 3 EJ rP, 75 %~l~~llt!~,~, 22%~l~O ~1~ 27%~ql1!3~*~~Ei]~~O ;~ 1-4~ TJ~;~O~3 (~) lit 1990 2000 2010 1 2020 . *IEI~J~ ~7k~ Mm2 1.5 9.0 15.0 30.0 Mm2 1 o4 1 1o.t 1 20.0 1 100.0

44 GW TWIT 0.1 1 1 1 0.2 * GW TWh 0.002 0.015 0.05 GW TWh _ I mice TWh I* mice ~~* it* GW TWh 2.0 4.0 0.3 0.9 0.02 0.05 0.35 0.1 , _ 263 262 1 0.35 0.95 0.8 0.3 1.1 3.0 2.0 0.5 3.0 7.0 6.0 17.4 6.0 1.0 240 236 4 0.05 0.2 260 240 20 0.3 1.2 290 200 90 12 ~ GW TWh At mice GW TWO 0.01 264 0.04 0.15 0.05 0.1 242 0.5 1.6 0.6 1.6 296 2.6 7.6 15 315 20.0 60.4 3) ~i4~*~!b0 ~~b'~'~ ~~u'~'~ ~ t~, ttYttt'ttttt~to l>~J~6L~?W$Si'JlQi9JE§~; item jet o ~~:~6L i~ 18:;~ b:~;l;;Y~; n 7~, V1~1~1~3~;~-'~l~;tbt~.~-o

4s ~ffl~7Rf, 1~/J' (USA, 1995 )o ~~, ~~, *I Id'* )h (A 2050 I) ~~, 1_~, Ad, art, ~~*~lJ~o ~~, To, ~7 ~~'~'~ hi, ilJ20204~6o/oo ~~tJ~, Its 20 GW L>~, ~~ 1-2 I 3.60 GWo ~~, ,it~;~- 7000 Aft, §~ 3.5°/°~ T~ ° ~~fIJ~\'Jo 1997 hi; ~ It ~ -~;~6~ ~ ~ HI o +1~1 1996-2010 ~~1~)~J~ ~6Li~Nl~7J~l 2 mice ~7JCT~;0W~ 2020 ~;~it 120 mtCel8 ~~:~u ( §9 90 mice), ~~;~$JJ~ ( Aft 8.5 mice), ~~u (6mtce), ~ii6~ (5mtce) ~~ltk~u (A 2.50 mtce)O 4) ~~Nq~lgi= ~P~@~;~*~ui~ 1995 ~~Li~5 #~i~/\~6g~ ~~lL~ ~iL~ I ;~[j~ it ~ ~~ =~ ~ o 1998 ~ ~ ~1~ ~1 t 100 h~~ lo 40-60 77~Jf~5;~0o `~;~i~ by In, If@; n IZ~=I~ ~~ts~+~§b'~ ii ~ ~ o ( ~~tt'J +~ H ~~' 18 ~~ I ME mono ~~ Coo mtceO

46 1) 19 ;~:~'~: · 1~/~: 1996 ~~ (~290 I) ~~, ,~d 4 CZAR · ~~: 1996 · ~ ~ n~ ~3~ ~ ~ ~~ n Am 1 ~~ ('to (LIP) /~(GEF)~ Hi: ~~ 2 ~ 5 Chit, ~~' ~~ ~ Me All ~~ t nb~ ~~` 'I · ~~: §~ 1 ~~+'~] ~~, I' Ad-' my' ~~* 44171J~ ~lb~*~1~1~1~1 o ~l:f'J316~E~I~ ~~t'1~ (AMP) Do 19 3~;ti~1J~lt~t~l~6t ~;~5~o I; t,!~.o

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