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Global Change Ecosystems Research Ecosystems Panel Oversight Group for the Ecosystems Panel National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, n.c

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject ofthis report was approved by the Governing Board ofthe National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members ofthe committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Contract No.20-DKNA-7-90052 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Commerce, and was supported by Grant No. OCE-9800841 from the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-07148-8 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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ECOSYSTEMS PANEL PAUL G. RISSER (Chair9, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon JEANNE N. CLARKE, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona VIRGINIA DALE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee CHRISTOPHER FIELD, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, California WILLIAM M. LEWIS, JR., University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado JANE LUBCHENCO, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon MICHAEL LYNCH, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon JAMES I. MCCARTHY, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts WALTER C. OECHEL, San Diego State University, San Diego, California DAVID S. SCHIMEL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado DANIEL S. SIMBERLOFF, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey MONICA TURNER, University of Wisconsin-Madison SUSAN USTIN, University of California, Davis, California Stay DAVID ]. POLICANSKY, Project Director LEE PAULSON, Editor JAMIE YOUNG, Research Associate LEAH PROBST, Senior Project Assistant v

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OVERSIGHT GROUP FOR THE ECOSYSTEMS PANEL GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle MICHAEL T. CLEGG, University of California, Riverside GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville T. KENT KIRK, University of Wisconsin, Madison PAMELA MATSON, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California Staff WARREN R. MUIR, Executive Director Al

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Acknowledgments THIS report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manu- script remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin-Madison F. Stuart Chapin, Ill, University of Alaska Fairbanks James Galloway, University of Virginia Pamela Matson, Stanford University Rosamond Naylor, Stanford University Gordon Orians, University of Washington William Schlesinger, Duke University Fred Wendorf, Southern Methodist University Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Paine, University of Washington, appointed by the Oversight Group for the Ecosystems Panel, . . V11

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ACKNOWLEGMENTS who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content ofthis report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC. The Ecosystems Panel is also "rate fuT to the workshop participants, particularly the presenters and responders, for their thoughtful and construc- tive contributions. They are listed in the Appendix. . . . v'''

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 TN TROD UC TION The USGCRP, 5 The National Research Council Study, 6 2 DEFINITIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE THE SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS Conceptual Model, ~ ~ Criteria for Identifying the Questions, 15 4 THE PANEL'S ADVICE TO THE USGCRP Cycles, 18 Habitat: Land Use and Land Cover, 25 Changed Biotic Mix, 3 Implementation, 36 REFERENCES APPENDIX: PARTICIPANTS IN ECOSYSTEM PANEL'S WORKSHOP IX 1 5 8 11 16 38 47

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G/o~d/ Change Ecosystems ~esearr~h

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