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The Spent-Fuel Standard for
Disposition of Excess Weapon
Plutonium
Application to Current DOE Options
Panel to Review the Spent-Fuel Standard for Disposition of
Excess Weapons Plutonium
Committee on International Security and Arms Control
National Academy of Sciences
. -
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, DC
s
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C.20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Council of the
National Academy of Sciences. The members of the panel responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. N00014-98-1-0789 between the National Acad-
emy of Sciences and the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or
recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not neces-
sarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-07320-0
Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitu-
tion Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
(in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
;0-
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I, ~ ~
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National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
.
is/\ I in")
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating
society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research,
dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern-
ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding
engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its
members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages
education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers.
Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in
the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The
Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon
its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education.
Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of
Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with
the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov-
ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the
Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro-
viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering
communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the
Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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PANEL ON IMMOBILIZATION/MOX ASSESSMENT
JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Teresa and John Heinz Professor of
Environmental Policy & Director, Program in Science, Technology,
& Public Policy, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
JOHN F. AHEARNE, Adjunct Professor, Civil and Environmental
Engineering, and Lecturer in Public Policy, Duke University; Sigma
Xi, The Scientific Research Society, Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina
ALLISON MACFARLANE, Senior Research Associate, Security Studies
Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
MARVIN M. MILLER, Research Affiliate, Center for International
Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
ALBERT NARATH, President (retired), Energy and Environment
Sector, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico
WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY, Professor and Director Emeritus,
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, Stanford,
California
Study Staff
·3:
INTA BRIKOVSKIS, Director, Committee on International Security
and Arms Control (until 12/98)
JO L. HUSBANDS, Director, Committee on International Security and
Arms Control (from 12/98)
JOHN WILEY, Senior Program Officer, Board on Radioactive Waste
Management
GEOFFREY FRENCH, Research Associate (until 11/99)
LA'FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Administrative Associate
v
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COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
AND ARMS CONTROL
.~-
JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Teresa and lohn Heinz Professor of
Environmental Policy & Director, Program in Science, Technology,
& Public Policy, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
JOHN D. STEINBRUNER (Vice-Chair), Professor and Director, Center
for International Security Studies at Maryland, School of Public
Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
WILLIAM F. BURNS, Major General (USA, Ret.), Carlisle,
Pennsylvania
GEORGE LEE BUTLER, President, Second Chance Foundation,
Omaha, Nebraska
STEPHEN COHEN, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program,
The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (from July 2000)
PAUL M. DOTY, Professor Emeritus, Department of Molecular and
Cell Biology; and Director Emeritus, Center for Science and
International Affairs, Harvard University, Cambridge,
Massachusetts (until June 1999)
SUSAN EISENHOWER, The Nixon Center, Washington DC
STEVE FETTER, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland,
College Park, Maryland
ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense
Analyses, and Senior Fellow, National Academy of Engineering,
Washington DC
RICHARD L. GARWIN, Thomas I. Watson Research Center, IBM
Corporation, Yorktown Heights, New York
SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., President, Arms Control Association,
Washington DC
CATHERINE KELLEHER, Director, Aspen Institute Berlin, Berlin,
Germany
CHARLES LARSON, Admiral (USN, Ret.) U.S. Naval Academy,
Annapolis, Maryland
JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University Professor, The Rockefeller
University, New York, New York
MATTHEW MESELSON, Thomas Dudley Cabot Professor of the
Natural Sciences, Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ALBERT NARATH, President (retired), Energy and Environment
Sector, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Al
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WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY, Professor and Director Emeritus,
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, Stanford,
California
C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Professor, Department of Physics and
Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles
JONATHAN D. POLLACK, Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and
Director, Strategic Research, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode
Island
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, ex officio, Foreign Secretary, National
Academy of Sciences, Washington DC
. .
Vtl
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Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro-
cedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose
of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments
that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for
objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review
comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integ-
rity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following indi-
viduals for their review of this report:
Milton Levinson, Menlo Park, CA
David G. McAlees, Bellevue, WA
Alexandra Navrotsky, University of California, Davis
John J. Taylor, Palo Alto, CA
Frank Van Hippel, Princeton University
.¢
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc-
tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the con-
clusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report
before its release. The review of this report was overseen by, Harold K.
Forsen, National Academy of Engineering, appointed by the NRC's Report
Review Committee, who was responsible for making certain that an inde-
pendent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with
institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully
considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely
with the authoring committee and the institution.
1~
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background and Charge to the Panel
Summary of Principal Findings
CHARGE TO THE PANEL
BACKGROUND
CLARIFYING THE SPENT-FUEL STANDARD
.
The Standard as Originally Conceived
Dependence on intrinsic properties only
Further qualifications on the application of the standard
Application of the standard to final plutonium forms in
the initial CISAC study
Questions about the Spent-Fuel Standard
A Systematic Approach to Considering Compliance with
the Standard
Interactions of threats and barriers
Relative importance of threat categories
EVALUATING Pu DISPOSITION FORMS AGAINST
THE STANDARD
Basis of Comparisons
Comparison Matrices and Discussion
Alternatives to the Reference Can-in-Canister Configuration
Xl
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All
TABLES
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
APPENDIX A: CHARGE TO THE PANEL
APPENDIX B: PANEL MEETINGS, BRIEFINGS,
AND CONSULTANTS
Meetings and Briefings
Consultants
..`
CONTENTS
