Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter
·IV·
Continuing Research Progress
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Contract No. 68-C-98-003 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council
COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER
JONATHAN SAMET (Chair),
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
JUDITH CHOW,
Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
BART CROES,
California Air Resources Board, Sacramento
ROBERT FORSTER,
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
DANIEL GREENBAUM,
Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA
PHILIP HOPKE,
Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY
PETROS KOUTRAKIS,
Harvard University, Boston, MA
DANIEL KREWSKI,
University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON
PAUL LIOY,
University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway
JOE MAUDERLY,
Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM
ROGER MCCLELLAN,
Albuquerque, NM
GÜNTER OBERDÖRSTER,
University of Rochester, Rochester, NY
REBECCA PARKIN,
George Washington University Medical Center, Washington, DC
JOYCE PENNER,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD SCHLESINGER,
Pace University, New York, NY
FRANK SPEIZER,
Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
MARK UTELL,
University of Rochester, Rochester, NY
RONALD WHITE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
WARREN WHITE,
University of California, Davis
RONALD WYZGA,
Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA
TERRY YOSIE,
American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA
Project Staff
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Project Director
EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Staff Officer
KULBIR BAKSHI, Senior Staff Officer
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer
KARL GUSTAVSON, Staff Officer
AMANDA C. STAUDT, Staff Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Editor
RACHEL HOFFMAN, Intern
MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Research Assistant
EMILY L. BRADY, Senior Program Assistant
SAMMY BARDLEY, Library Assistant
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Members
JONATHAN M. SAMET (Chair),
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
DAVID ALLEN,
University of Texas, Austin
THOMAS BURKE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
JUDITH C. CHOW,
Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
COSTEL D. DENSON,
University of Delaware, Newark
E. DONALD ELLIOTT,
Yale Law School, New Haven, CT
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD,
Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, CA
WILLIAM H. GLAZE,
Oregon Health and Science University, Beaverton
SHERRI W. GOODMAN,
Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, VA
DANIEL S. GREENBAUM,
Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, MA
ROGENE HENDERSON,
Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM
CAROL HENRY,
American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA
ROBERT HUGGETT,
Michigan State University, East Lansing
BARRY L. JOHNSON
Emory University, Atlanta, GA
JAMES H. JOHNSON,
Howard University, Washington, DC
JUDITH L. MEYER,
University of Georgia, Athens
PATRICK V. O’BRIEN,
Chevron Research and Technology, Richmond, CA
DOROTHY E. PATTON,
International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, DC
STEWARD T.A. PICKETT,
Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY
ARMISTEAD G. RUSSELL,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
LOUISE M. RYAN,
Harvard University, Boston, MA
KIRK SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
LISA SPEER,
Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY
G. DAVID TILMAN,
University of Minnesota, St. Paul
CHRIS G. WHIPPLE,
Environ Incorporated, Emeryville, CA
LAUREN A. ZEISE,
California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland
Senior Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for Toxicology
ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer
SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Staff Officer
SUZANNE VAN DRUNICK, Senior Staff Officer
EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Staff Officer
ELLEN K. MANTUS, Senior Staff Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Managing Editor
OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Air Quality Management in the United States (2004)
Endangered and Threatened Species of the Platte River (2004)
Atlantic Salmon in Maine (2004)
Endangered and Threatened Fishes in the Klamath River Basin (2004)
Cumulative Environmental Effects of Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas Development (2003)
Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations (2002)
Biosolids Applied to Land: Advancing Standards and Practices (2002)
The Airliner Cabin Environment and Health of Passengers and Crew (2002)
Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001)
Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs (2001)
Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001)
A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001)
Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals (4 volumes, 2000-2004)
Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000)
Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2000)
Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000)
Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000)
Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999)
Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999)
Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter (4 volumes, 1998-2004)
The National Research Council’s Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997)
Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996)
Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996)
Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995)
Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995)
Biologic Markers (5 volumes, 1989-1995)
Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 volumes, 1994-1995)
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994)
Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993)
Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992)
Science and the National Parks (1992)
Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991)
Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991)
Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990)
Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academies Press
(800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
Dedication to the Memory of Professor Glen Cass (1947-2001)
We dedicate this report to the memory of our late colleague and fellow committee member, Professor Glen Cass. Glen represented superbly the multidisciplinary research approach that we advocate in this report. Over the past two decades, from his Ph.D. research on sulfates to subsequent work on ozone, nitrates, primary and secondary carbon, visibility reduction, and indoor air quality, Glen and his research group unraveled the sources, atmospheric processes, toxicity, and emission controls needed to curtail the detrimental impacts of particulate matter on public health and welfare. Glen had a unique ability to combine elegant scientific approaches with sound engineering judgment to arrive at practical solutions that have been incorporated into air quality management practices in Los Angeles, the northeastern United States, and Asia. His legacy includes a large body of research and a rigorous, yet practical, approach to training a generation of air pollution scientists, who continue to lay the foundation needed for science-based decisionmaking. As a colleague, a friend, and an inspiration, we all sorely miss him.
Preface
Under the Clean Air Act, particulate matter (PM) is one of the major air pollutants for which National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) are to be established on the basis of the scientific evidence on risks to human health. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), other federal and state government agencies, and nongovernment organizations are conducting a major multiyear research effort to improve scientific understanding of airborne PM and its effects on human health. An overall objective is to reduce uncertainties in the scientific evidence used to set the NAAQS for airborne PM in the United States. At the request of Congress and EPA, the National Research Council's Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter was established in 1998 and given the charge of developing a research agenda for this purpose and then monitoring research progress. Biosketches of the committee members are presented in Appendix A. This report, the committee’s fourth, comes 6 years after its first report, which proposed a 13-year research portfolio. This report evaluates research progress since the first report, evaluates possible barriers to continued progress, and makes recommendations for future research directions and research management.
The first of the committee's four planned reports, Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio, was published in 1998. It identified 10 high-priority research topics linked to key policy-related scientific uncertainties and presented a 13-year "research investment portfolio" containing recommended short-term and long-term phasing and estimated costs of research on each topic. Congress, EPA, and the scientific community gave strong support to the committee's recommendations and implemented substantial changes in research efforts in response to them.
The committee’s second report, Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: II. Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio, published in 1999, described the committee’s plans for monitoring the progress of research. In addition, the research recommendations from the committee’s first report were updated, and recommendations related to emissions and air quality models were substantially revised.
The committee’s third report, published in 2001, monitored the prog-
ress of the research begun in 1998 or later to address the priority research topics identified by the committee. Although much research had been initiated, not enough time had elapsed by then for many of the projects to be completed and their results reported. The third report should be viewed as a preliminary assessment of research progress.
In this final report, the committee faced the challenge of gauging research progress on each of its 10 research topics. It developed an approach for characterizing the degree to which new evidence has reduced uncertainty and then gathered and evaluated the evidence coming from research over 5 years since the first report. The committee was assisted by the many individuals (listed below) who participated in workshops and public sessions of committee meetings held for the purpose of learning about relevant findings. Research progress reflects not only the creativity and efforts of researchers but also the efficiency of research management. This report also provides recommendations for future consideration of research on PM, as this committee’s work is now finished.
The committee received oral or written presentations or both from the following individuals:
John Bachmann, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Tina Bahadori, American Chemistry Council; John Bailar, University of Chicago; David V. Bates, University of British Columbia; William Bennett, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Michael Brauer, University of British Columbia; Richard Burnett, Health Canada; Lilian Calderon-Garciduenas, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Aaron Cohen, Health Effects Institute; Daniel Costa, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Robin Dennis, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Robert Devlin, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Douglas Dockery, Harvard School of Public Health; Francesca Dominici, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Ed Edney, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Mark Frampton, University of Rochester; John Froines, University of California at Los Angeles; Patrick Gaffney, California Air Resources Board; Chris Geron, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Frank Gilliland, University of Southern California; Ian Gilmour, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; John Godleski, Harvard School of Public Health; Judy Graham, while at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, currently at the American Chemistry Council; Jack Harkema, Michigan State University; Bruce Harris, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; James Hogg, University of British Columbia; Patrick Kinney, Columbia University School of Public Health; Michael Kleinman, University of California at Irvine; Jane Koenig, University of Washington; Timothy Larson, University of Washington; Allen Lefohn, A.S.L. & Associates; Chuck Lewis, U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency; Joellen Lewtas, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Morton Lippmann, New York University School of Medicine; Phillip Lorang, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Robert Mason, National Jewish Medical and Research Center; Andrew Miller, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Fred Miller, CIIT Centers for Health Research; David Mobley, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; D. Warner North, NorthWorks; William Ollison, American Petroleum Institute; Wayne Ott, Stanford University; Pedro Oyola, Chilean National Commission for the Environment; Joseph Paisie, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Giovanni Parmigiani, Johns Hopkins University; Robert Phalen, University of California at Irvine; C. Arden Pope III, Brigham Young University; Peter Preuss, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Charles Rodes, Research Triangle Institute; Joseph Rodricks, ENVIRON International Corporation; Armistead Russell, Georgia Institute of Technology; Richard Scheffe, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Kenneth Schere, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; John Seitz, while at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, currently at Sonnenschein, Nath & Rosenthal, LLP; Linda Sheldon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Lianne Sheppard, University of Washington; Dean Smith, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Paul Solomon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Helen Suh, Harvard School of Public Health; Joseph Tikvart, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Paige Tolbert, Emory University; Sverre Vedal, National Jewish Medical and Research Center; James Vickery, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Russell Weiner, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Ronald Williams, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; William Wilson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and Denis Zmirou, French Institute of Health and Medical Research.
We are grateful for the assistance of the NRC staff in preparing the report. We wish to thank Raymond Wassel, project director, and James Reisa, director of BEST. Scientific and technical information was provided by Eileen Abt, Kulbir Bakshi, K. John Holmes, Karl Gustavson, Amanda Staudt, Mirsada Karalic-Loncarevic, and Rachel Hoffman. Invaluable logistical support was provided by Emily Brady. The report was ably edited by Ruth Crossgrove.
Finally, I would like to thank all the members of the committee for their dedicated efforts throughout the development of this report.
Jonathan Samet, Chair
Committee on Research Priorities for
Airborne Particulate Matter
Acknowledgment of Review Participants
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Carol Henry, American Chemistry Council; George Hidy, ENVAIR; Morton Lippmann, New York University Medical Center; Ronald Low, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey; D. Warner North, NorthWorks; Robert Phalen, University of California at Irvine; C. Arden Pope, Brigham Young University; and Armistead Russell, Georgia Institute of Technology.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Annetta Watson, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Appointed by the NRC she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.