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Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

The Transportation Research Board is a division of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board’s mission is to promote innovation and progress in transportation by stimulating and conducting research, facilitating the dissemination of information, and encouraging the implementation of research results. The Board’s varied activities annually engage more than 4,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation.

This study was conducted in response to a congressional mandate, contained in the Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2001 (Public Law 106–346), which required the U.S. Department of Transportation to fund a study by the National Academy of Sciences

In response to a request from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Research Council (NRC) formed a committee of 13 members under the leadership of David Wormley, Dean of the College of Engineering at the Pennsylvania State University. Panel members have expertise in the following areas: mechanical engineering and vehicle dynamics; vehicle safety and testing; vehicle control systems; roadway and roadside design; statistics, econometrics, and data analysis; risk assessment and communication; public policy; consumer information; and human factors and driver behavior.

The committee met four times between April and October 2001. The first two meetings were devoted primarily to information gathering; details of invited presentations and participation in the open discussions are given in Appendix B. Additional information-gathering activities undertaken by committee members included visits to the Consumers Union Vehicle Test Facility in East Haddam, Connecticut, and site visits to Ford, General Motors, and DaimlerChrysler facilities in the Detroit area (see Appendix B). The third and fourth committee meetings were devoted to deliberative discussions and preparation of the committee’s final report. An interim report, issued in July 2001, presented the committee’s preliminary findings and identified outstanding issues to be addressed during the remainder of the study. To expedite the study process, the committee divided into three groups, each of which assumed primary responsibility for information gathering and

analyses in one of the major subject areas of the study—vehicle dynamics, statistics and data analysis, and consumer information. Contributions from each of the working groups were used by the committee as a whole to develop this consensus report.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: James W. Dally, University of Maryland, College Park; Thomas D. Gillespie, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Ann Arbor; Robert L. Mason, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas; M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Paul A. Ruud, University of California, Berkeley; John M. Starkey, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana; and Michael S. Wogalter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the committee’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Morris Tanenbaum, AT&T Corporation (retired), Short Hills, New Jersey, appointed by the Report Review Committee, and Lester A. Hoel, University of Virginia, Charlottesville; they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The committee wishes to thank the many individuals who contributed to this study through presentations at meetings, correspondence, and telephone calls. The assistance of Pat Boyd of NHTSA and Scott Schmidt of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers in arranging briefings and responding to committee requests for information is gratefully acknowledged. The committee also wishes to thank the representatives of Consumers Union, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, and DaimlerChrysler for hosting the visits to their facilities. Special appreciation is expressed to Sue Partyka at NHTSA for her timely responses to the committee’s requests for further statistical analyses of crash data, and to Simon Lee of the Department of Economics, University of Iowa, for statistical analyses in support of the study.

Jill Wilson managed the study under the supervision of Stephen R. Godwin, Director of Studies and Information Services. Suzanne Schneider, Associate Executive Director of TRB, managed the report review process. The report was edited by Rona Briere and prepared for publication under the supervision of Nancy A. Ackerman, Director of Reports and Editorial Services. Frances E. Holland assisted in logistics and communications with the committee, and Alisa Decatur provided assistance with word processing and production of the final manuscript.