The committee developed the workshop agenda and invited leading sea ice scientists, experts, and stakeholders to identify obstacles impeding progress in the prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal to decadal timescales, and to explore strategies to mitigate those obstacles. To address its task, the committee developed several fundamental working guidelines. The committee considered ice conditions during all seasons within the whole Arctic marine environment (i.e., Arctic Ocean and the subpolar seas, including the seasonal sea ice zone). The committee also provided the participants with a background document that summarized insights and information gained from previously related efforts and published works (see Appendix A). Challenges and strategies were identified during this workshop through presentations, breakout group discussions, and plenary summaries.
Workshop Agenda
May 9-10, 2012
University of Colorado Boulder, East Campus
Administrative and Research Center (ARC)
Boulder, CO
Workshop Goals: Arctic sea ice plays a number of important roles in moderating global climate and influencing oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Recent observed changes in the characteristics of the sea ice cover have various direct and indirect scientific, technological, and societal impacts such as the planning of new shipping ports, oil and gas exploration, increased marine transportation, as well as local and global climate and ecological changes. Currently, our limited understanding of the coupled and complex interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and atmosphere hinders our ability to predict the rate and magnitude of future change. Enhancements of our theoretical, observing, and modeling capabilities will be essential for advancing the understanding and prediction of sea ice over seasonal to decadal timescales. The goal of the workshop is to foster a dialogue between polar scientists, agency representatives, and stakeholders to explore the current major challenges, with a focus on whether there are new methods, observations, and technologies that might advance our predictive capabilities through improved understanding of seasonal to decadal sea ice variations. This dialogue will provide expert information for the preparation of a National Research Council report.
Overarching Questions: What is limiting advancements in sea ice predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales? How can these limitations be overcome to realize necessary advancements?
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
**A shuttle will pick up workshop participants from the Boulder Marriott on Canyon Blvd at 7:50 A.M., though participants may walk if they wish.**
| Room: ARC 620 | |||
| 8:00 A.M. | Breakfast | ||
| 8:30 A.M. | WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION Purpose of the Study and the Workshop |
Jackie Richter-Menge & John Walsh Cochairs |
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| 9:00 A.M. | STAKEHOLDER PANEL Gary Hufford, NOAA/NWS Vera Metcalf, Eskimo Walrus Commission LCDR Kenneth Boda, US Coast Guard Michael Terminel, Edison Chouest Offshore |
Lawson Brigham, Moderator | |
| Key questions for the panelists: | |||
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- What are the key questions you need answers to (and on what timescales?) |
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- What information, beyond what is currently available to you, do you need to help make decisions? |
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- What information are you receiving now that is useful to you? |
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| 9:35 A.M. | DISCUSSION | ||
| 10:15 A.M. | Break | ||
| SESSION 1 - OBSERVATIONS | |||
| 10:30 A.M. | OBSERVATIONS PANEL Hajo Eicken, UAF Walt Meier, NSIDC Ron Lindsay, UW Key questions for the panelists: |
Rebecca Woodgate, Moderator | |
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- What are the key gaps in our understanding? |
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- What are the key observational challenges in the next five years? |
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- What advances in observations could address these issues? |
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- What interactions with modelers and stakeholders would benefit these goals? |
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| 10:55 A.M. | DISCUSSION | ||
| 11:30 A.M. | BREAKOUTS | ||
| Questions for breakout group discussion: | |||
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- What are the key challenges and questions? |
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- What are strategies for addressing these challenges? |
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- What are the next steps that should be taken? |
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| Blue Group Leader: Jennifer Francis Staff: Katie Thomas Rapporteur: Don Perovich Room # ARC446 |
Green Group Leader: Robert Raye Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring Rapporteur: Ignatius Rigor Room # ARC248 |
| Red Group Leader: Son Nghiem Staff: Deb Glickson Rapporteur: Ron Kwok Room # RL233 |
Black Group Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge Staff: Lauren Brown Rapporteur: Jim Maslanik Room # RL269 |
| 12:30 P.M. | Lunch | ||
| 1:45 P.M. | REPORT BACK | ||
| 2:45 P.M. | Break | ||
| SESSION 2 - MODELING | |||
| 3:15 P.M. | MODELING PANEL Cecilia Bitz, UW Elizabeth Hunke, LANL Andrey Proshutinsky, WHOI Key questions for the panelists: |
Marika Holland, Moderator | |
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- What are the key gaps in our understanding? |
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- What are the key modeling challenges in the next five years? |
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- What advances in modeling could address these issues? |
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- What interactions with observationalists and stakeholders would benefit these goals? |
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| 3:40 P.M. | DISCUSSION | ||
| 4:15 P.M. | BREAKOUTS | ||
| Questions for breakout group discussion: | |||
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- What are the key challenges and questions? |
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- What are strategies for addressing these challenges? |
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- What are the next steps that should be taken? |
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| Blue Group Leader: Jennifer Francis Staff: Katie Thomas |
Green Group Leader: Robert Raye Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring |
| Rapporteur: Sinead Farrell Room # ARC446 |
Rapporteur: Alex Jahn Room # ARC248 |
| Red Group Leader: Son Nghiem Staff: Deb Glickson Rapporteur: Wieslaw Maslowski Room # RL233 |
Black Group Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge Staff: Lauren Brown Rapporteur: Jenny Hutchings Room # RL269 |
| 5:30 P.M. | Adjourn | ||
| **Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.** | |||
Thursday, May 10, 2012
**Shuttle will pick up workshop participants from the Boulder Marriott on Canyon Blvd at 7:50 A.M., though participants may walk if they wish.**
Room: ARC 620
| 8:00 A.M. | Breakfast | ||
| 8:30 A.M. | REPORT BACK | ||
| SESSION 3—CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES | |||
| 9:30 A.M. | CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES PANEL Jim Overland, NOAA/PMEL Brendan Kelly, IARPC Pablo Clemente-Colón, NOAA/National Ice Center Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie |
John Walsh, Moderator | |
| Key questions for the panelists: | |||
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- What gaps or questions in sea ice prediction have not yet been addressed in previous efforts or reports? |
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- What are some cross-cutting issues with observation and modeling interactions? |
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- How can the various communities (observationalists, modelers, stakeholders) better coordinate? |
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| 10:05 A.M. | DISCUSSION | ||
| 10:30 A.M. | Break | ||
| 11:00 A.M. | BREAKOUTS | ||
| Questions for breakout group discussion: | |||
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- What are the key challenges and questions? |
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- What are strategies for addressing these challenges? |
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- What are the next steps that should be taken? |
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| Blue Group Leader: Jennifer Francis Staff: Katie Thomas Rapporteur: Molly McCammon Room # ARC446 |
Green Group Leader: Robert Raye Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring Rapporteur: Peter Wadhams Room # ARC248 |
| Red Group Leader: Son Nghiem Staff: Deb Glickson Rapporteur: Justin Wettstein Room # RL233 |
Black Group Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge Staff: Lauren Brown Rapporteur: Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth Room # RL269M |
| 12:15 P.M. | Lunch | ||
| 1:15 P.M. | REPORT BACK | ||
| 2:15 P.M. | WRAP-UP AND FINAL REMARKS | Jackie Richter-Menge & John Walsh Cochairs | |
| 3:00 P.M. | Adjourn | ||
| **Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.** | |||
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Participant List
Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington
Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington
LCDR Ken Boda, U.S. Coast Guard
Lawson Brigham, University of Alaska
Lauren Brown, National Research Council
Pablo Clemente-Colon, NOAA National Ice Center
Hajo Eicken, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Chris Elfring, National Research Council
John Farrell, U.S. Arctic Research Commission
Sinead Farrell, University of Maryland
Jennifer Francis, Rutgers University
Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie
Deb Glickson, National Research Council
Jeff Gossett, USN Arctic Submarine Laboratory
Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Amy Holman, NOAA National Ocean Service
Gary Hufford, National Weather Service—Alaska Region
Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Jenny Hutchings, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Janet Intrieri, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Alexandra Jahn, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Brendan Kelly, Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee
Ron Kwok, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Ron Lindsay, University of Washington
Jim Maslanik, University of Colorado, Boulder
Wieslaw Maslowski, Naval Postgrad School
Larry Mayer, University of New Hampshire
LCDR Blake McBride, U.S. Navy
Molly McCammon, Alaska Ocean Observing System
Walt Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center
Vera Metcalf, Eskimo Walrus Commission
Son Nghiem, Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech
Jim Overland, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Don Perovich, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
Andrey Proshutinsky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Amanda Purcell, National Research Council
Robert Raye, Shell Projects and Technology
Jackie Richter-Menge, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
Ignatius Rigor, University of Washington
Mike Terminel, Edison Chouest Offshore
Katie Thomas, National Research Council
Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge
John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Justin Wettstein, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Jim White, University of Colorado, Boulder
Rebecca Woodgate, University of Washington
Jinlun Zhang, University of Washington
