REVIEW OF THE
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM’S
UPDATE TO THE
STRATEGIC PLAN DOCUMENT
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW •Washington, DC 20001
This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under award numbers NNH14CK78B and NNH14CK79D. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-43746-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-43746-6
DOI: 10.17226/23396
Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; Internet, http://www.nap.edu/.
Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Update to the Strategic Plan (USP) Document. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. DOI: 10.17226/23396.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the Nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the Nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the Nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the Nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org.
This page intentionally left blank.
COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
WARREN WASHINGTON (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KAI LEE (Vice Chair), David and Lucile Packard Foundation (ret.), Los Altos, California
DOUG ARENT, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado
SUSAN AVERY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Massachusetts
ARRIETTA CHAKOS, Urban Resilience Strategies, Berkeley, CA
PETER DASZAK, EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York
THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University, East Lansing
KRISTIE L. EBI, University of Washington, Seattle
BARUCH FISCHHOFF, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
NANCY B. GRIMM, Arizona State University, Tempe
HENRY D. JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
ANTHONY C. JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts
HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey
RICHARD H. MOSS, University of Maryland, College Park
IAN NOBLE, ND-GAIN, Vienna, Virginia
MARGO OGE, Environmental Protection Agency (ret.), Maclean, Virginia
KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut, Storrs
KATHLEEN TIERNEY, University of Colorado, Boulder
CHARLES J. VÖRÖSMARTY, City University of New York, New York
National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine Staff:
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
PAUL STERN, Senior Scholar, Board on Environmental Change and Society
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany
MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida
HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
PAMELA EMCH, Northrup Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California
ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
MAURA HAGAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts
EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, New York
RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina
JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Kresge Foundation, Troy, Michigan
JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson
ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn
S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
Ocean Studies Board Liaison
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
Polar Research Board Liaison
JENNIFER FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, Massachusetts
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer
ALISON MACALADY, Associate Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer
ALEX MORGAN, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
RICHARD H. MOSS (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
JOSEPH ARVAI, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada
ANTHONY J. BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
WILLIAM U. CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland
F. STUART CHAPIN III, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, New York
KRISTIE L. EBI, University of Washington, Seattle
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD NEWELL, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
DENNIS OJIMA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson
STEPHEN POLASKY, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Honeywell, Inc. (Retired), Los Angeles, California
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
MARY ELLEN O’CONNELL, Acting Director
PAUL C. STERN, Senior Scholar
JENNY HEIMBERG, Senior Program Officer
HEATHER BREINER, Associate Program Officer
TINA LATIMER, Program Coordinator
MARY GHITELMAN, Program Assistant
This page intentionally left blank.
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:
PETER BACKLUND, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas, Austin
DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, University of California, Los Angeles
J. MICHAEL MCQUADE, United Technologies Corporation, East Hartford, CT
ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marvin A. Geller, Emeritus, Stony Brook University, Sarasota, Florida, and David M. Karl, University of Hawaii at Manoa. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
This page intentionally left blank.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview
Chapter 2: Setting Priorities for Global Change Research
2.1 Recognition of the Role of USGCRP as a Facilitator of Boundary Spanning
2.2 Articulation of Research Accomplishments
2.3 Better Process for Developing Priorities and Learning from Stakeholder Engagement
Process for Developing Priorities
What Has Been Learned from Users and Researchers?
2.4 Better Articulation of Priorities
How Do the Identified Objectives Fit Together?
Describing Near-Term Priorities Within the Context of Sustained Long-Term Commitments
Chapter 3: Science Focus and Scope
3.1 Template for Consistent Presentation of Targeted Research Challenges and Topics
3.2 Earth System Understanding (Objective 1.1)
3.3 Science for Adaptation and Mitigation (Objective 1.2)
3.4 Integrated Observations (Objective 1.3)
3.5 Integrated Modeling (Objective 1.4)
3.6 Information Management (Objective 1.5)
Chapter 4: Review of Decision Support Objectives and Plans
4.1 Research on Decision Support and Assessment Processes
4.3 Conduct Sustained Assessment (Goal 3)
4.4 Communicate and Educate (Goal 4)
4.5 International Cooperation (Chapter IV)
Chapter 5: Concluding Comments
Appendix A: Statement of Task for This Report
Appendix B: Overall Charge for the Advisory Committee to the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Appendix C: Committee Biographies
Appendix D: Line-by-line Comments Submitted by Committee Members
Appendix E: Goals and Objectives in the 2012 USGCRP Strategic Plan
This page intentionally left blank.