MEASURING
THE 21ST CENTURY
SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
WORKFORCE POPULATION
EVOLVING NEEDS
Panel to Evaluate the National Center for
Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to
Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation (#SES-1024012). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-46913-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-46913-9
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24968
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2018). Measuring the 21st Century Science and Engineering Workforce Population: Evolving Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24968.
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PANEL TO EVALUATE THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING STATISTICS APPROACH TO MEASURING THE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING WORKFORCE
RITA COLWELL (Cochair), Department of Cell Biology and Molecular Genetics, University of Maryland and Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
JAMES S. HOUSE (Cochair), Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
JENNIFER SUE BOND, Council on Competitiveness
GEOFF DAVIS, Google, Inc.
DONALD DILLMAN, Department of Sociology, Washington State University
RICHARD FREEMAN, Department of Economics, Harvard University
JACK GAMBINO, Statistics Canada
MARESI NERAD, College of Education, University of Washington
RANDALL OLSEN, Department of Economics, Ohio State University
WILLIE PEARSON, JR., School of History, Technology, and Society, Georgia Institute of Technology
KEITH RUST, Westat
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Madison
JAMES WAGNER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
YU XIE, Department of Sociology, Princeton University
KRISZTINA MARTON, Study Director
ANTHONY MANN, Program Coordinator
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Office of the Provost, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, and Department of Sociology, Georgetown University
FRANCINE BLAU, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University
MARY ELLEN BOCK, Department of Statistics, Purdue University (emerita)
ANNE C. CASE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
MICHAEL CHERNEW, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
JANET CURRIE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
DONALD DILLMAN, Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, Washington State University
CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown University
JAMES S. HOUSE, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
THOMAS MESENBOURG, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)
SARAH NUSSER, Office of the Vice President for Research and Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
COLM O’MUIRCHEARTAIGH, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago
JEROME P. REITER, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University
ROBERTO RIGOBON, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JUDITH A. SELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles
EDWARD SHORTLIFFE, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University/Arizona State University
BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Director
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar
Acknowledgments
Personally, and on behalf of the Panel to Evaluate the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce, we wish to thank all those who contributed their time and expertise to inform the panel’s work. The study was initiated by the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) under the guidance of director John Gawalt and deputy director Emilda Rivers. The panel would like to thank the NSF staff who assisted the panel with presentations and background materials, including Mark Fiegener, Beethika Khan, and Kelly Phou from NCSES and Matthew Wilson from the National Science Board Office. Throughout the course of the study, the panel especially benefited from the able and very generous assistance provided by John Finamore, program director of the NSF Human Resources Statistics Program.
The panel’s understanding of the needs of data users was greatly expanded by the presentations at a public workshop of William Bonvillian, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Lisa Frehill, Energetics Technology Center; Fernando Galindo-Rueda, OECD, France; Donna Ginther, University of Kansas; William Harris, Science Foundation Arizona; Kaye Husbands Fealing, Georgia Institute of Technology; Janet Metcalfe, Vitae, United Kingdom; Leigh Ann Pennington, Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education; Michael Roach, Cornell University; Neil Ruiz, George Washington University; Beate Scholz, independent consultant, Germany; John Skrentny, University of California, San Diego; Tobin Smith, Association of American Universities; Andrea Stith, BioFrontiers, University of Colorado Boulder; Prasanna Tambe, New York University; Yu Tao, Stevens Institute
of Technology; Michael Teitelbaum, Harvard University; and Brian Yoder, American Society for Engineering Education.
The panel’s work was supported by the capable staff of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Brian Harris-Kojetin, director, and Connie Citro, former director, Committee on National Statistics, provided institutional leadership. Krisztina Marton superbly directed the study. Kirsten Sampson-Snyder, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, oversaw the report review process. The report also greatly benefited from the meticulous editing provided by Rona Briere of Briere Associates, Inc. We also thank program associate Anthony Mann for very friendly and efficient logistical support for the panel’s meetings.
Finally, and most important, we greatly appreciated the work of our fellow panel members, whose dedication, patience, and commitment made this report possible: Jennifer Bond, Council on Competitiveness; Geoff Davis, Google, Inc.; Don Dillman, Washington State University; Richard Freeman, Harvard University; Jack Gambino, Statistics Canada; Maresi Nerad, University of Washington; Randy Olsen, Ohio State University; Willie Pearson, Georgia Institute of Technology; Keith Rust, Westat; Nora Cate Schaeffer, University of Wisconsin–Madison; James Wagner, University of Michigan; and Yu Xie, Princeton University. Panel members were chosen for their expertise, subject matter knowledge, and varied perspectives, serving on the panel as individuals, not as representatives of their employers or organizations. They were a pleasure to work with, increasingly becoming a very intellectually and scientifically engaged and opinionated group, and a quite cohesive one as well.
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Norman M. Bradburn, senior fellow at NORC at the University of Chicago; Patrick J. Cantwell, Decennial Statistical Studies Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Bonnie J. Dunbar, Aerospace Engineering, TEES Institute for Engineering Education and Innovation, Texas A&M; John L. Eltinge, Research and Methodology, U.S. Census Bureau; Donna K. Ginther, Department of Economics, University of Kansas; Richard C. Larson, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Shirley M. Malcom, Directorate for Education and Human Resources Programs, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Kristen Olson,
Department of Sociology, University of Nebraska–Lincoln; and Brady T. West, Survey Methodology Program, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by report review coordinator V. Joseph Hotz, Department of Economics, Duke University, and report review monitor Kenneth Wachter, Departments of Demography and Statistics (emeritus), University of California, Berkeley. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. The quality of the report has been enhanced by the entire review process. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
Rita Colwell (Cochair), University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University
James S. House (Cochair), University of Michigan Panel to Evaluate the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce
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Acronyms and Abbreviations
ACS | American Community Survey |
CARRA | Census Bureau’s Center for Administrative Records Research and Applications |
ECDS | Early Career Doctorates Survey |
ED | U.S. Department of Education |
EIN | employer identification number |
FFRDC | Federally Funded Research and Development Center |
FSRDC | Federal Statistical Research Data Center |
GSS | Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering |
IRS | Internal Revenue Service |
LEHD | Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Program |
NASA | National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
NCES | National Center for Education Statistics |
NCSES | National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics |
NIH | National Institutes of Health |
NIH IRP | National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program |
NSCG | National Survey of College Graduates |
NSF | National Science Foundation |
NSRCG | National Survey of Recent College Graduates |
SDR | Survey of Doctorate Recipients |
SED | Survey of Earned Doctorates |
SEI | Science and Engineering Indicators report |
S&E | science and engineering |
SSA | Social Security Administration |
UI earnings | unemployment insurance earnings |
USDA | U.S. Department of Agriculture |
WMPD | Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering report |
Contents
1 INTRODUCTION AND FRAMEWORK FOR THE FUTURE
NCSES’s Current Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce
An Aspirational Framework for the Future
The NCSES Human Resources Statistics Program
Prior Committee on National Statistics Studies
International Mobility and Comparisons
Work Activities, Training, and Skills
Employment Outcomes, Research Productivity, and Entrepreneurship
Work Environments and Work–Life Balance
Possible Strategies for Expanding Data on the Science and Engineering Workforce
International Efforts and Collaborations to Expand Science and Engineering Workforce Data
Monitoring of Future Data Needs
4 SAMPLE DESIGN AND ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
5 DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING
Overview of Data Collection Procedures for the Workforce Surveys
Maintaining Panel Participation and Response Rates
6 DATA ANALYSIS, DISSEMINATION, AND OUTREACH
B Questionnaire Content Crosswalk
C Workshop on Data Needs Agenda
D Potential Uses of Unemployment Insurance Earnings Data to Enhance Longitudinal Data
Figures, Tables, and Boxes
FIGURES
4-1 Sample design of the National Survey of College Graduates
5-1 Sample member contact strategy for the National Survey of College Graduates
5-2 Sample member contact strategy for the Survey of Doctorate Recipients
5-3 Sample member contact strategy for the Early Career Doctorates Survey
TABLES
4-1 Sample of the 2015 Survey of Doctorate Recipients, by Cohort
5-1 Key Data Collection Characteristics of the NCSES Education and Workforce Surveys
5-2 National Survey of College Graduates Web Survey Response by Device, 2013 and 2015
BOXES
2-1 Main Topics in the Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering
2-2 Main Topics in the Survey of Earned Doctorates
2-3 Main Topics in the National Survey of College Graduates