Understanding the
Long-Term Evolution of the
Coupled Natural-Human
Coastal System
THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. GULF COAST
Committee on Long-Term Coastal Zone Dynamics: Interactions and Feedbacks
Between Natural and Human Processes Along the U.S. Gulf Coast
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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This activity was supported by the Gulf Research Program. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-47584-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-47584-8
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25108
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast: Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25108.
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COMMITTEE ON LONG-TERM COASTAL ZONE DYNAMICS: INTERACTIONS AND FEEDBACKS BETWEEN NATURAL AND HUMAN PROCESSES ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST
TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER (Chair), Oregon State University
GREGORY A. CARTER, University of Southern Mississippi
JUST CEBRIAN, Dauphin Island Sea Lab and University of South Alabama
ROBERT (TONY) A. DALRYMPLE (NAE1), Johns Hopkins University
JORDAN R. FISCHBACH, Water and Climate Resilience Center and RAND Corporation
JENNIFER L. IRISH, Virginia Tech
ALEXANDER S. KOLKER, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium and Tulane University
SHUBHRA MISRA, Chevron Energy Technology Company (until May 2018)
LAURA J. MOORE, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University
TORBJÖRN E. TÖRNQVIST, Tulane University
GABRIELLE WONG-PARODI, Carnegie Mellon University
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer
HEATHER KREIDLER, Associate Program Officer
COURTNEY DEVANE, Administrative Coordinator
JAMES HEISS, Postdoctoral Fellow
___________________
1 National Academy of Engineering.
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
GENE WHITNEY (Chair), Congressional Research Service (Retired)
R. LYNDON ARSCOTT (NAE1), International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (Retired)
BRENDA B. BOWEN, The University of Utah
CHRISTOPHER CAMERON, GeoLogical Consulting, LLC
RODNEY C. EWING, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford University
CAROL P. HARDEN, Department of Geography, University of Tennessee
THORNE LAY (NAS2), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz
ANN S. MAEST, Buka Environmental
ZELMA MAINE-JACKSON, Washington State Department of Ecology, Nuclear Waste Program
MARTIN W. McCANN, Jack R. Benjamin and Associates and Stanford University
JAMES M. ROBERTSON, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (Retired)
JEFFREY N. RUBIN, Tualatin Valley Fire and Rescue
JAMES A. SLUTZ, National Petroleum Council
SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
ELIZABETH J. WILSON, Dartmouth College
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
ELIZABETH EIDE, Director
ANNE LINN, Scholar
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer
SAMMANTHA MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer
COURTNEY DEVANE, Administrative Coordinator
NICHOLAS ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate
CARLY BRODY, Senior Program Assistant
RAYMOND (REMY) CHAPPETTA, Senior Program Assistant
ERIC EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
___________________
1 National Academy of Engineering.
2 National Academy of Sciences.
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
LARRY A. MAYER (Chair), University of New Hampshire
E. VIRGINIA ARMBRUST, University of Washington
KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University
CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina
THOMAS S. CHANCE, ASV Global, LLC
RITA R. COLWELL (NAS1), University of Maryland
SARAH W. COOKSEY, The Nature Conservancy
JAMES A. ESTES (NAS1), University of California, Santa Cruz
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
PATRICK HEIMBACH, The University of Texas at Austin
SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
BONNIE J. McCAY (NAE2), Rutgers University (Retired)
S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
STEVEN A. MURAWSKI, University of South Florida
JOHN A. ORCUTT (NAE2), Scripps Institute of Oceanography and University of California, San Diego
TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University
RUTH M. PERRY, Shell Exploration & Production Company
MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University
MARK J. SPALDING, The Ocean Foundation
MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium
DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University
LISA D. WHITE, San Francisco State University and University of California, Berkeley
ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Technological University
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
CONSTANCE KARRAS, Program Officer
EMILY TWIGG, Associate Program Officer
JAMES HEISS, Postdoctoral Fellow
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
TRENT CUMMINGS, Program Assistant
___________________
1 National Academy of Sciences.
2 National Academy of Engineering.
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), University of Washington
JOSEPH L. ARVAI, University of Michigan
HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University
LORI M. HUNTER, University of Colorado Boulder
KATHARINE L. JACOBS, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions and University of Arizona
MICHAEL ANTHONY MENDEZ, Yale University
RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future
MARY D. NICHOLS, California Air Resources Board
JONATHAN T. OVERPECK, University of Michigan
ASEEM PRAKASH, University of Washington
MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Honeywell, Inc. (Retired)
MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University Law School
JALONNE L. WHITE-NEWSOME, The Kresge Foundation
ROBYN S. WILSON, The Ohio State University
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
TOBY WARDEN, Board Director
HEATHER KREIDLER, Associate Program Officer
JORDYN WHITE, Program Officer
TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator
LETICIA GARCILAZO GREEN, Senior Program Assistant
Acknowledgments
This Consensus Study Report was greatly enhanced by the participants of meetings held as part of this study. The committee acknowledges those who gave presentations at or participated in committee meetings: Damarys Acevedo-Mackey (U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center), Mead Allison (The Water Institute of the Gulf), Phil Berke (Texas A&M University), Carl Bernier (Rice University), Cas Bridge (Chevron), Joe Calantoni (Naval Research Laboratory), Noreen Clancy (RAND Corporation), Craig Colten (Louisiana State University), Brady Couvillion (U.S. Geological Survey), Don Danmeier (Chevron), David Dismukes (Louisiana State University), Tom Drake (Office of Naval Research), Nicole Elko (American Shore and Beach Preservation Association), Carl Ferraro (Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources), Angelina Freeman (Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority), Mathew Hauer (University of Georgia), David Kidwell (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), Maria Lemos (University of Michigan), Kelli Levy (Environmental Management Division Director, Pinellas County), Tucker Mahoney (Federal Emergency Management Agency), John Alex McCorquodale (University of New Orleans), Ehab Meselhe (The Water Institute of the Gulf), Shahzaad Mohammed (Cheniere LNG), Ryan Moyer (Florida Department of Environmental Protection), Brad Murray (Duke University), Ray Newby (Texas General Land Office), Natalie Peyronnin (Environmental Defense Fund), George Ramseur (Mississippi Department of Marine Resources), Denise Reed (The Water Institute of the Gulf), Hugh Roberts (ARCADIS), Dano Roelvink (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education), Julie Dean Rosati (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory), Jim Schock (Florida Building Commission), Hilary Stockdon (U.S. Geological Survey), Ariana Sutton-Grier (University of Maryland), LaDon Swann (Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium), Sherri Swanson (HDR Engineering, Inc.), Jason Theriot (historian and author), Elizabeth Vargas (Texas General Land Office), Jenneke Visser (University of Louisiana at Lafayette), Ian Voparil (Shell Deepwater Gulf of Mexico), George Voulgaris
(National Science Foundation), Ty Wamsley (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), and Eric White (The Water Institute of the Gulf).
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
John Anderson, Rice University
R. Lyndon Arscott, International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (Retired)
Craig Colten, Louisiana State University
Jamie Kruse, East Carolina University
Nirnimesh Kumar, University of Washington
Maria Carmen Lemos, University of Michigan
Allen Marr, Geocomp Corporation
Bonnie McCay (NAS1), Rutgers University
Richard McLaughlin, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi
Denise Reed, University of New Orleans
Mark Stacey, University of California, Berkeley
Ariana Sutton-Grier, The Nature Conservancy
Robert Weisberg, University of South Florida
Although the reviewers provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Michael C. Kavanaugh (NAE2), Geosyntec Consultants, and Linda K. Blum, University of Virginia. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
___________________
1 National Academy of Sciences.
2 National Academy of Engineering.
Contents
Study Scope and Report Approach
2 BACKGROUND OF THE GULF COAST SYSTEM
The Coupled Natural-Human System
Feedbacks Within the Coupled Natural-Human System
The Coupled Natural-Human System
Feedbacks Within the Coupled Natural-Human System
4 BARRIERS TO EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN SCIENTISTS AND STAKEHOLDERS
