FUNDING  A REVOLUTION
Government Support for Computing Research

Committee on Innovations in Computing and Communications: Lessons from History,
National Research Council

Contents

Title Page and Notice

NAS Statement

Committee, Board, and Commission Members

Preface

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

Executive Summary

Part I: The Federal Role in Computing Research

1 Introduction

    Using History as a Guide
    The Computing Revolution
      Effects on the Economy
      Technological Roots
    Sources of U.S. Success
      Research and Technological Innovation
      Federal Policy Toward Research Funding
      Other Mechanisms for Federal Support of Innovation
    Issues Related to Federal Support of Research
    Organization of This Report
    Notes

2 Economic Perspectives on Public Support for Research

    The Economic Rationale for Public Support of Civilian R&D
      Information and Knowledge as Commodities
      Capturing the Benefits of Research Investments
      Technical Standards as Public Goods
      Secrecy and Intellectual Property Rights
      Common Pool Problems, Patent Races, and Potential Overinvestment in R&D
    The Benefits of Public Support of Research
      Direct Contributions to the Scientific Knowledge Base
      Indirect Effects of Government-sponsored Research
        Intellectual Assistance
        Research as Training
    Notes

3 Federal Support for Research Infrastructure

    Federal Research Funding
      Levels of Federal Support
      Sources of Federal Support
      Comparisons to Industrial Research Funding
    Human Resources
    Computer Facilities
      University Computing Centers
      Departmental Computing
      High-performance Computing
      Network Infrastructure
    Effects of Federal Investments in Research Infrastructure
    Conclusion
    Notes

4 The Organization of Federal Support: A Historical Review

    1945-1960: Era of Government Computers
      The Government's Early Role
      Establishment of Organizations
        Military Research Offices
        National Bureau of Standards
        Atomic Energy Commission
        Private Organizations
      Observations
    1960-1970: Supporting a Continuing Revolution
      Maturing of a Commercial Industry
      The Changing Federal Role
        The Advanced Research Projects Agency
          ARPA and Information Technology
          ARPA's Management Style
        National Science Foundation
    1970-1990: Retrenching and International Competition
      Computer Science, Computer Technology
      The Changing Political Context
        Science and Politics in the 1970s: A Changed Climate
        Policy for the 1980s: Industrial Research and Competitiveness
      Changes in the Organization of Federal Research Support
        Changes at ARPA
          Very Large Scale Integrated Circuits
          Strategic Computing Initiative
        Making a Science, Funding a Science: The NSF in the 1970s and 1980s
        Other Federal Agencies in the 1970s and 1980s
        SEMATECH
        High-performance Computing
    1990 and Beyond
    Notes

5 Lessons from History

    The Benefits of Federal Research Investments
      Providing the Technology Base for Growing Industries
      Maintaining University Research Capabilities
      Creating Human Resources
      Accomplishing Federal Missions
    Characteristics of Effective Federal Support
      Support for Long-range, Fundamental Research
      Support for Efforts to Build Large Systems
      Building on Industrial Research
      Diverse Sources of Government Support
      Strong Program Managers and Flexible Management Structures
      Industry-University Collaboration
      Organizational Innovation and Adaptation
    Concluding Remarks
    Notes

Part II: Case Studies in Computing Research

6 The Rise of Relational Databases

    Background
      Emergence of Computerized Databases
      Early Efforts at Standardization
    Emergence of the Relational Model
      Codd's Vision
      System R
      Ingres
    Diffusion and Commercialization of Relational Databases
    Lessons from History
    Notes

7 Development of the Internet and the World Wide Web

    Early Steps: 1960-1970
    Expansion of the ARPANET: 1970-1980
      From ARPANET to Internet
      Local Area Networks
      Integrated Networking
      Standards and Management
      Closing the Decade
    The NSFNET Years: 1980-1990
    Emergence of the Web: 1990 to the Present
    Lessons from History
    Notes

8 Theoretical Research: Intangible Cornerstone of Computer Science

    Machine Models: State Machines
    Computational Complexity
    Verifying Program Correctness
    Cryptography
    Lessons from History
    Notes

9 Developments in Artificial Intelligence

    The Private Sector Launches the Field
    The Government Steps In
    DARPA's Pivotal Role
    Success in Speech Recognition
    Shift to Applied Research Increases Investment
    Artificial Intelligence in the 1990s
    Lessons from History
    Notes

10 Virtual Reality Comes of Age

    Launching the Graphics and Virtual Reality Revolution
    Seeding the Academic Talent Pool
    Virtual Reality in the Private Sector: Approach with Caution
    Synergy Launches the Quest for the "Holy Grail,"
    Graphics Hardware: RISC Technology
    Biomedical Applications
    Virtual Reality and Entertainment: Toward a Commercial Industry
    The Right Mix: Virtual Reality in the 1990s
    Lessons from History
    Notes

Bibliography

Appendix: Committee Biographies




Boxes, Figures, and Tables

Boxes

ES.1 Why a Historical Approach?

ES.2 Case Studies of Innovation in Computing

1.1 Drawing Conclusions from Case Studies

1.2 Analogy in Technological Innovation

1.3 Early Industrial Efforts in Computing

4.1 Project Whirlwind and SAGE

4.2 Project MAC and Computer Time-sharing

4.3 Roots of the Personal Computer

4.4 Accomplishments of DARPA's Very Large Scale Integrated Circuit Program

4.5 Computer Engineering at the National Science Foundation

8.1 The Formal Verification Process

8.2 Rivest-Shamir-Adleman Cryptography

9.1 The Development and Influence of LISP

9.2 Dragon Systems Profits from Success in Speech Recognition

9.3 Pioneering Expert Systems

9.4 DARPA's Current Artificial Intelligence Program

10.1 What Is Virtual Reality?

10.2 Community Building

10.3 The Rise and Fall of Atari

10.4 Real3D Emerges from Military-Commercial Linkage

Figures

ES.1 Federal and industry funding for computing research, 1977-1996

1.1 Illustrations of the role of government-sponsored computing research and development

3.1 Federal funding for research in computer science, 1976-1995

3.2 Federal funding for research in electrical engineering, 1971-1995

3.3 Federal funding for scientific research, 1974-1995

3.4 Federal funding for research in computer science by agency, 1976-1995

3.5 Federal funding for research in electrical engineering by agency, 1972-1995

3.6 Federal funding for basic research in computer science by agency, 1976-1995

3.7 Federal funding for basic research in electrical engineering by agency, 1972-1995

3.8 Federal and industrial funding for computing research, 1977-1996

3.9 R&D intensity in computer-related industries, 1975-1996

3.10 Bachelor's degrees awarded by field, 1966-1995

3.11 Master's degrees awarded by field, 1966-1995

3.12 Doctoral degrees awarded by field, 1966-1995

3.13 Federal funding for university research in computer science, 1976-1995

3.14 Federal funding for university research in electrical engineering, 1975-1995

3.15 Portion of university research funding provided by the federal government, 1973-1995

3.16 Computer science and electrical engineering graduate students supported by the federal government, 1985-1996

3.17 Expenditures for research equipment in computer science, 1981-1995

3.18 Expenditures for research equipment in electrical engineering, 1981-1995

8.1 Simplified state diagram for supervising a telephone line

9.1 Artificial-intelligence-related patents awarded per year, 1976-1996

9.2 Ph.D. dissertations submitted annually in artificial intelligence and related fields, 1956-1995

9.3 Number of Ph.D. dissertations submitted annually in AI and related fields and in computer science, 1956-1995

Tables

1.1 Worldwide Deployment of Computers in 1995

1.2 Sales and Employment in the Information Technology Industry, 1996

1.3 Historical Improvement in Microprocessors and Memories

3.1 Funding for Industrial R&D and Research in Office and Computing Equipment, 1975-1979

3.2 Funding for Industrial R&D and Research in Communications Equipment, 1965-1990

3.3 Employment, by Sector, for New Ph.D. Recipients in Computer Science and Engineering, 1970-1995

3.4 University Expenditures for Computing Equipment, Maintenance, and Operations (in millions of dollars), 1988

3.5 National Science Foundation Obligations for Institutional Computing Services (in thousands of dollars)

3.6 National Science Foundation Expenditures on the Coordinated Experimental Research and Computing Research Equipment Programs (in millions of dollars), 1977-1985

3.7 Authorship and Source of Financial Support for Computer-related Papers Cited in U.S. Patents Granted in 1993-1994

4.1 Computing and Related Equipment as a Share of the National Economy

4.2 Representative VLSI Technologies and Resulting Commercial Products

4.3 Growth in the National Science Foundation's Computer and Information Sciences and Engineering Directorate Budget (millions of dollars), 1987-1996

9.1 Total Federal Funding for Artificial Intelligence Research (in millions of dollars), 1984-1988

9.2 Federal Funding for Basic Research in Artificial Intelligence by Agency (in millions of dollars), 1984-1988

9.3 Federal Funding for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence by Agency (in millions of dollars), 1984-1988

9.4 Leading Holders of Patents Related to Artificial Intelligence, 1976-1997

10.1 Select Alumni of the University of Utah's Computer Graphics Program


Copyright 1999 National Academy Press