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Exploring the Trans-Neptunian Solar System

Exploring the
Trans-Neptunian Solar System




Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration

Space Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council




NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998


NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

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The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Support for this project was provided by Contract NASW 96013 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor.


International Standard Book Number 0-309-06041-9


Cover: Multiple views of the current configuration of NASA's proposed Pluto-Kuiper Express spacecraft. Courtesy of Robert Staehle and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.


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Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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COMMITTEE ON PLANETARY AND LUNAR EXPLORATION

RONALD GREELEY, Arizona State University, Chair

JAMES ARNOLD,* University of California, San Diego

FRANCES BAGENAL, University of Colorado

JEFFREY R. BARNES, Oregon State University

RICHARD BINZEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

WENDY CALVIN, U.S. Geological Survey

PHILIP R. CHRISTENSEN,* Arizona State University

RUSSELL DOOLITTLE, University of California, San Diego

HEIDI B. HAMMEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

LARRY HASKIN, Washington University

BRUCE JAKOSKY, University of Colorado

GEORGE McGILL, University of Massachusetts

HARRY McSWEEN, JR. University of Tennessee

TED ROUSH, San Francisco State University

JOHN RUMMEL, Marine Biological Laboratory

GERALD SCHUBERT, University of California, Los Angeles

EVERETT SHOCK, Washington University

EUGENE SHOEMAKER, Lowell Observatory

DARRELL F. STROBEL,* Johns Hopkins University

ALAN T. TOKUNAGA,* University of Hawaii

ROGER YELLE,* Boston University

MARIA T. ZUBER,* Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Staff

DAVID H. SMITH, Study Director

ALTORIA B. ROSS, Senior Program Assistant

ELAINE E. HARRIS, Interim Program Assistant

STEPHANIE ROY, Research Assistant

JACQUELINE D. ALLEN, Senior Program Assistant



*Former member.


SPACE STUDIES BOARD

CLAUDE R. CANIZARES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair

MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University

JOHN A. ARMSTRONG,* IBM Corporation

JAMES P. BAGIAN,* Environmental Protection Agency

DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado

LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Harvard University

DONALD E. BROWNLEE, University of Washington

JOHN J. DONEGAN,* John Donegan Associates, Inc.

GERARD W. ELVERUM, JR., TRW Space and Technology Group

ANTHONY W. ENGLAND, University of Michigan

DANIEL J. FINK,* D.J. Fink Associates, Inc., Potomac, Md.

MARILYN L. FOGEL, Carnegie Institution of Washington

MARTIN E. GLICKSMAN,* Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

RONALD GREELEY, Arizona State University

WILLIAM GREEN, former member, U.S. House of Representatives

NOEL W. HINNERS,* Lockheed Martin Astronautics

ANDREW H. KNOLL, Harvard University

JANET G. LUHMANN,* University of California, Berkeley

JOHN H. McELROY,* University of Texas, Arlington

ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, CIESIN

BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire

KENNETH H. NEALSON, University of Wisconsin

MARY JANE OSBORN, University of Connecticut Health Center

SIMON OSTRACH, Case Western Reserve University

MORTON B. PANISH, AT&T Bell Laboratories (retired)

CARLÉ M. PIETERS, Brown University

THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology

MARCIA J. RIEKE,* University of Arizona

PEDRO L. RUSTAN, JR., U.S. Air Force (retired)

ROLAND W. SCHMITT,* Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (retired)

JOHN A. SIMPSON, Enrico Fermi Institute

GEORGE L. SISCOE, Boston University

EDWARD M. STOLPER, California Institute of Technology

RAYMOND VISKANTA, Purdue University

ROBERT E. WILLIAMS, Space Telescope Science Institute


MARC S. ALLEN, Director (through December 12, 1997)

JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Director (as of February 17, 1998)



*Former member.


COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS

ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-chair

W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair

PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan

WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University

LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania

RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University

JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara

MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University

L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc.

JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University

CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company

PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.

KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota

KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory

MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles

DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company

MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania

NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory

CHANG-LIN TIEN, University of California at Berkeley


NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director


Foreword



At the distance of Neptune, the Sun is 900 times fainter than at Earth and only 400 times brighter than our full Moon. Beyond Neptune lies Pluto with its moon, Charon, and a vast frozen region that recent observations show is teeming with icy remnants of the nebula that formed the solar system, the Kuiper Belt. Although the intrepid Voyager 2 spacecraft zoomed past Neptune in 1989 and continues to send signals from several times that distance, its orbital dynamics did not allow a detailed inspection of Pluto or the Kuiper Belt.

This report considers the scientific imperatives and priorities for further study of the trans-neptunian system, including Neptune's own moon Triton. It considers both ground-based observations and space missions. The report recognizes that technology is the key to cost-effective, in situ exploration of Pluto, Charon, and the Kuiper Belt. Studying these remote objects requires small spacecraft, lightweight enough to be boosted to the outer solar system with modest-sized rockets yet suitably instrumented to perform meaningful science when they arrive.

The trans-neptunian system contains the most primitive and undisturbed remnant of the material from which our planet formed. A major reward for studying and exploring these distant regions is the understanding it can give about the origin and evolution of our home in the solar system.


Claude R. Canizares, Chair
Space Studies Board


Preface



In the last decade, our knowledge of the outer solar system has been transformed as a result of the Voyager 2 encounter with Neptune and its satellite Triton and from Earth-based observations of the Pluto-Charon system. However, the planetary system does not simply end at the distance of Pluto and Neptune. In the past few years, dozens of bodies have been discovered in near-circular, low inclination orbits near or beyond the orbit of Neptune. These bodies are now believed to be directly related to each other and to Pluto, Charon, and Triton. As a class they define and occupy the inner boundary of a hitherto unexplored component of the solar system, the trans-neptunian region.

We have just begun to characterize the nearest and larger members of the population of bodies beyond Neptune to at least 100 AU, known as the Kuiper Belt. These bodies have low albedos, are about a hundred to a few hundred kilometers in diameter, and number in the tens of thousands. Smaller Kuiper Belt objects are presumably vastly more numerous. Because the inner part of the Kuiper Belt is unstable with respect to gravitational perturbations by Neptune, the smaller objects are suspected to be the major source for short-period comets that enter regions closer to the Sun and that can collide with the planets. The largest known comet, Chiron, orbits between Saturn and Uranus. It is about 170 km across, has low albedo, and exhibits a complex coma and jet structure. Its orbit strongly suggests that it is a former Kuiper Belt object, and its size indicates that it is similar to those objects recently discovered beyond Neptune. The sizes of the largest Kuiper Belt objects are unknown, but it is likely that the Pluto-Charon system, stabilized in a gravitational orbital resonance with Neptune at the inner edge of the Kuiper Belt, is a large surviving member of the primordial Kuiper Belt population.

Exploration of the Pluto-Charon system by spacecraft is a prime objective of NASA's planetary and lunar exploration program in the 21st century. NASA's present plan is to study and design an integrated instrument suite and spacecraft to explore Pluto-Charon under extreme cost constraints. Mission development is closely connected to the New Millennium advanced spacecraft technology development program and will aim for a new start in FY 2000.

Neptune's Triton is very similar to Pluto in size, density, and surface and atmospheric composition. Although Triton is a planetary satellite, it was probably captured and thus may be related in origin to Pluto and Kuiper Belt objects. The Voyager flyby of Triton revealed it to be a geologically and meteorologically remarkable body. It exhibits a wide array of geological terrains, present-day geological activity, and a variety of atmospheric and seasonal processes that imply dramatic climatic variations on longer time scales. Although NASA has no planned missions to return to the Neptune system, Pluto-Charon and Triton could be studied synergistically to great effect.

As a result of these developments, the Space Studies Board charged COMPLEX to review the state of scientific knowledge of the trans-neptunian region of the solar system and address the following questions:

    • What is the present understanding of the origin, composition, and physical characteristics of these bodies and the interrelationships among Kuiper Belt objects, Chiron, the Pluto-Charon system, and Triton?

    • What ground-based and Earth-orbiting telescopic observations are needed to characterize the Kuiper Belt and the complex worlds, Pluto-Charon and Triton?

    • What observations would clarify the highest-priority scientific questions concerning Pluto-Charon and Triton, and would identify new targets of high scientific interest?

    • What are the likely opportunities for relatively inexpensive flyby or rendezvous missions to Pluto-Charon, Triton, Chiron, or Kuiper Belt bodies?

    • What are the priority scientific questions for such missions, and what instruments are necessary to answer them?

    • What enabling technologies are needed to make these missions affordable?

This project was formally initiated in October 1995, and the bulk of the material was written in the latter part of 1996. This material was extensively revised, updated, and reviewed in the summer of 1997. Although many COMPLEX members past and present worked on this report, the bulk of the task of assembling and editing their many individual contributions was performed by Fran Bagenal with the assistance of Heidi Hammel, Ted Roush, Gerald Schubert, Darrell Strobel, and Roger Yelle. The work of this writing team was made easier thanks to the invaluable assistance rendered by Dale Cruikshank (NASA Ames Research Center), Harold Levison (Southwest Research Institute), William McKinnon (Washington University), Robert Staehle (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory), and Paul Weissman (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory). COMPLEX also wishes to acknowledge additional assistance given by Donald Brownlee (University of Washington), Karen Meech (University of Hawaii), Robert Pepin (University of Minnesota), Marcia Rieke (University of Arizona), and Peter Stockman (Space Telescope Science Institute).

This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The contents of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. COMPLEX thanks reviewers Reta Beebe (New Mexico State University), Robert H. Brown (University of Arizona), Marc Buie (Lowell Observatory), A.G.W. Cameron (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics), William Kaula (University of California, Los Angeles), Margaret Kivelson (University of California, Los Angeles), and Jane Luu (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics) for many constructive comments and suggestions. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.


Contents



    Executive Summary

    1 The New Worlds Beyond 30 AU

      Trans-Neptunian Objects
      Exploration of New Territory
      Reservoirs of Primitive Materials
      Processes That Reveal the Solar System's Origin and Evolution
      Links to Extrasolar Planets
      Prebiotic Chemistry
      Effects of the Trans-Neptunian Region on the Inner Solar System
      References

    2 Current Knowledge and Outstanding Issues

      Triton
      Pluto and Charon
      Kuiper Belt Objects
      Centaurs
      References

    3 Key Measurement Objectives

      Orbits
      Bulk Properties
      Surfaces and Chemical Compositions
      Atmospheres
      Plasma Interactions
      Laboratory Studies
      Theoretical Studies
      References

    4 Technology Issues

      Telescopic Observations
      Spacecraft Missions
      References

    5 Conclusions and Recommendations

      Spacecraft Missions
      Telescopic Observations
      Research and Analysis
      Reference

    Glossary


Executive Summary



A profound question for scientists, philosophers and, indeed, all humans concerns how the solar system originated and subsequently evolved. To understand the solar system's formation, it is necessary to document fully the chemical and physical makeup of its components today, particularly those parts thought to retain clues about primordial conditions and processes.1

In the past decade, our knowledge of the outermost, or trans-neptunian, region of the solar system has been transformed as a result of Earth-based observations of the Pluto-Charon system, Voyager 2's encounter with Neptune and its satellite Triton, and recent discoveries of dozens of bodies near to or beyond the orbit of Neptune. As a class, these newly detected objects, along with Pluto, Charon, and Triton, occupy the inner region of a hitherto unexplored component of the solar system, the Kuiper Belt. The Kuiper Belt is believed to be a reservoir of primordial objects of the type that formed in the solar nebula and eventually accreted to form the major planets. The Kuiper Belt is also thought to be the source of short-period comets and a population of icy bodies, the Centaurs, with orbits among the giant planets. Additional components of the distant outer solar system, such as dust and the Oort comet cloud, as well as the planet Neptune itself, are not discussed in this report.

Our increasing knowledge of the trans-neptunian solar system has been matched by a corresponding increase in our capabilities for remote and in situ observation of these distant regions. Over the next 10 to 15 years, a new generation of ground- and space-based instruments, including the Keck and Gemini telescopes and the Space Infrared Telescope Facility, will greatly expand our ability to search for and conduct physical and chemical studies on these distant bodies. Over the same time span, a new generation of lightweight spacecraft should become available and enable the first missions designed specifically to explore the icy bodies that orbit 30 astronomical units (AU) or more from the Sun. The combination of new knowledge, plus the technological capability to greatly expand this knowledge over the next decade or so, makes this a particularly opportune time to review current understanding of the trans-neptunian solar system and to begin planning for the future exploration of this distant realm.

Based on current knowledge, studies of trans-neptunian objects are important for a variety of reasons that can be summarized under five themes:

1. Exploration of new territory. Telescopic discoveries of new Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) are being made monthly. With continued access to suitable telescopes, this rate of discovery will likely be maintained for many years since very little of the sky (<0.1% of the ecliptic for objects brighter than 17th magnitude2,3) has been surveyed to date. While telescopes are showing us that trans-neptunian objects are relatively common and are providing information about their disk-averaged surface composition, spacecraft missions are necessary to explore the detailed nature of these icy bodies.

2. Reservoirs of primitive materials. While KBOs may not be pristine relics of the original solar nebula, it is in the outer solar system that we might expect to find the least-modified materials as well as samples that have suffered a range of degrees of modification. These bodies can provide the links for understanding the relationships among the interstellar medium, the solar nebula, and current materials in the solar system.

3. Processes that reveal the solar system's origin and evolution. The observable characteristics of objects tell us about the processes they have experienced. The distribution of a population of objects in orbital phase space provides clues about their origins and the dynamical processes that control them over long periods. The distribution of sizes within a population reveals the relative importance of accretion versus collisional erosion. The wide range of sizes and different collisional histories among objects in the trans-neptunian region implies varying degrees of internal differentiation. Surface geology provides important constraints on an object's thermal history. Surface chemistry and atmospheric properties reveal processes of outgassing, photochemistry, transport, and redeposition of volatiles.

4. Links to extrasolar planets. Studies of early stars similar to the Sun have shown that some are surrounded by disks of dust that are thought to be derived from collisions between comets. It is natural, therefore, to relate such dust disks to the Kuiper Belt. Applying knowledge of the Kuiper Belt to stellar dust disks suggests that the inner boundary exhibited by some disks may be an indication of the existence of planets. Comparisons of the Kuiper Belt with these dust disks is an important component of the new field of comparative studies of solar systems.

5. Prebiotic chemistry. As remnants of the early solar system, trans-neptunian objects can provide critical clues about processes of prebiotic chemistry and about the materials that would have been delivered to the early Earth and may have formed the source of volatile materials from which life arose here and possibly on other planets of this and other solar systems.

These five themes are not on an equal footing. The first three are well-established areas of scientific investigation and are backed up by a substantial body of observational and theoretical understanding. The last two, however, are more speculative. They are included here because they raise a number of interesting possibilities that seem particularly suited to an interdisciplinary approach uniting planetary scientists with their colleagues in the astrophysical and life science communities.

Although not considered in any detail in this report, the distant outer solar system also has direct relevance to Earth and the other terrestrial planets because it is the source of comets that bring volatiles into the inner solar system. The resulting inevitable impacts between comets and other planetary bodies can play a major role in the evolution of planetary surfaces and atmospheres. Indeed, comets can also play major roles in the evolution of life as suggested by, for example, the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary bolide and the extinction of the dinosaurs.

TRANS-NEPTUNIAN OBJECTS

The five major themes described above involve general scientific issues that apply to the trans-neptunian region as a whole. Below COMPLEX summarizes the current knowledge and outstanding issues of the separate major types of objects in the trans-neptunian region.

Triton

Triton is by far the best-explored icy body in the distant outer solar system,4 and, as such, sets the context for the discussion of the other bodies. Triton is thought to be a planetary body that was captured by Neptune in the distant past. Voyager 2's flyby of Triton demonstrated the wealth of information available only from a spacecraft mission. Triton's density suggests that it has a rock core (70% by mass) surrounded by ice. Tidal heating due to orbital evolution and/or collision(s) with other satellites probably caused differentiation of the interior. Geological mapping indicates a youthful surface with few impact craters and with active volcanic eruptions. Its surface is uniformly cold (<38 Kelvin) and is covered with patches of volatile ices that appear to be strongly coupled to Triton's seasonally varying nitrogen atmosphere.

The outstanding issues at Triton are as follows:

    • When and by what process was Triton captured by Neptune?

    • What is the degree of differentiation of the interior?

    • Does Triton have an iron core and/or magnetic field?

    • What drives the volcanism?

    • How are the volatile ices brought to the surface and distributed?

    • What is the distribution of surface materials, and how are they related to geological units?

    • What are the structure and dynamics of Triton's atmosphere, and how do they vary with Triton's complex seasonal pattern?

Pluto and Charon

Pluto is both the smallest planet and the largest body in the outer solar system that is not in orbit around a giant planet. Our knowledge of Pluto and its satellite, Charon, is limited to telescopic observations. Other than the identification of certain ices on Pluto and Charon and the observation of strong variations in albedo on Pluto, little can be said about their surfaces or geology, beyond speculation based on knowledge of other icy satellites. As with Triton, Pluto's atmosphere is strongly coupled to the surface volatiles so that differences in their atmospheres result from the different nature of their surfaces. Pluto's warmer atmosphere and enhanced methane abundance are consistent with the ice on Pluto's surface containing 30 times more methane than Triton's ices and with large dark regions where the surface must be warmer. Charon's capture by Pluto probably involved a disruptive collision of the two bodies.

The outstanding issues at Pluto and Charon are as follows:

    • What are the bulk densities of Pluto and Charon?

    • What are the interior composition and the state of differentiation of Pluto and Charon?

    • What were the effects of the initial collision and subsequent tidal stresses produced in each body as a result of Charon's capture by Pluto?

    • Is there activity on the surfaces of Pluto or Charon (e.g., plumes as on Triton)?

    • Are the large-scale variations in albedo on Pluto due to variations in crustal structure or frost deposits?

    • What is the structure of Pluto's atmosphere, and how does it change with time?

    • Why is Pluto's atmosphere so different from Triton's?

Kuiper Belt Objects

Very little is known about the approximately 60 KBOs detected to date. Measurements of their orbits suggest that many of them are in resonance with Neptune. Variations in brightness are attributed to variations in size but cannot be quantified accurately without information on albedos. Measurement of brightness at different wavelengths gives an indication of surface color and suggests that surface compositions may vary among KBOs.

Outstanding issues for Kuiper Belt objects are the following:

    • What fraction of KBOs are in dynamically evolved orbits?

    • What is the rate at which their orbits are perturbed sufficiently to send KBOs inward where they might interact with the giant planets?

    • What does the size distribution of KBOs tell us about their accretion and erosion?

    • If the range in observed colors is a true indication of diversity in surface composition, what causes this diversity?

    • What is the degree of differentiation of these small bodies?

Centaurs

Other than spectroscopic observations that indicate diverse surface compositions, very little information is available about the half-dozen objects with eccentric orbits among the giant planets.

Outstanding issues for the Centaurs are these:

    • How many Centaurs are there?

    • What are their orbits and how did these objects get where they are?

    • How did their orbits evolve from the Kuiper Belt?

    • What causes their color diversity?

    • Does Chiron have a bound dust atmosphere, and, if so, what are the dynamical processes?

KEY MEASUREMENTS

The key measurements that will answer the outstanding issues for these different classes of objects can be obtained by similar methods. For example, to answer questions about dynamics researchers need to determine the objects' orbits by tracking their motions precisely over months to years. To answer questions about the processes of accretion and erosion it is necessary to determine each object's size by making separate measurements of brightness and albedo. The degree of internal differentiation is indicated by studying the surface geology and measuring gravitational and magnetic fields of larger objects. The distribution of surface volatile ices is derived by combining spectroscopic measurements and multispectral imaging. Stellar occultations of major bodies such as Pluto and Triton have provided rare opportunities to detect and study the vertical structure of their tenuous atmospheres. Characterization of the distribution of atmospheric hazes, clouds, and winds requires imaging from a spacecraft that passes close to the object.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Three of the thematic rationales for the exploration of the trans-neptunian region (exploration of new territory, reservoirs of primitive materials, processes that reveal the solar system's origin and evolution) involve using methods that have proven successful in the past—telescopic observations, spacecraft missions, and harnessing new technologies and human ingenuity—to push the boundaries of our knowledge beyond 30 AU. Making links to extrasolar planet detection and studies of prebiotic chemistry will require planetary scientists to take interdisciplinary approaches and to venture with astronomers, chemists, and biologists into new fields of research. The main tasks for the next 10 to 15 years on the path to exploring the new frontier of planetary science in the distant outer solar system are to search for new objects and, more importantly, to document fully the chemical and physical makeup of the known bodies that constitute the trans-neptunian region. Spacecraft missions, telescopic observations, and research and analysis are the categories in which COMPLEX makes its highest-priority recommendations, as well as recommendations for augmenting this baseline effort.

Spacecraft Missions

To explore the makeup of objects in the trans-neptunian region, COMPLEX recommends an approach that combines telescopic observations of the bulk properties of a large sample of Kuiper Belt objects with close-up, spacecraft studies of the detailed properties of a few specific objects. The highest scientific priority for the exploration of the trans-neptunian solar system is extensive and detailed measurement of the fundamental physical and chemical properties of the Pluto-Charon system, end members of the KBO population. Since Pluto and Charon are barely spatially resolvable from Earth, many of the relevant properties can be measured only by robotic spacecraft.

NASA's planning for a Pluto mission has undergone significant revision over the last few years. What was conceived of in the early 1990s as a Cassini-class mission requiring launch on a Titan-IV has been reformulated as a highly integrated spacecraft-payload combination capable of being launched on a Delta-II. The associated reduction in cost and the inclusion of a new start for a line of outer solar system missions in the administration's FY 1998 budget suggest that a Pluto mission is closer to realization than it has ever been since one was first conceived. Given Pluto's long rotation period (6.4 days) and the need for redundancy, COMPLEX recommends a dual spacecraft mission to Pluto. A single spacecraft would be able to observe only one hemisphere during its flyby. A second spacecraft would enable coverage of both hemispheres. Staggering the arrival times by, say, 6 months would also enable some retargeting of the second spacecraft based on results obtained during the first spacecraft's flyby.

Augmentations

Following a Pluto-Charon mission there are a number of future spacecraft projects that could be considered as part of a long-term program to explore the trans-neptunian solar system. These augmentations include:

Adding a flyby of a Kuiper Belt object to a Pluto-Charon mission. The scientific potential of any Pluto-Charon mission would be greatly enhanced by the spacecraft continuing on to visit another Kuiper Belt object and thus providing measurements of the size and surface characteristics of two different KBOs that have different histories. Locating a suitable KBO along the trajectory of a Pluto mission should be a priority goal for search programs. This augmentation should be considered only if it has no serious cost or schedule impact on a Pluto-Charon mission.

Conducting additional missions to Kuiper Belt objects. Objects in the trans-neptunian solar system are highly diverse, and the underlying causes for this diversity can be fully explored only by space missions. Scientific priorities for spacecraft missions to the trans-neptunian region in the more distant future, after the successful conduct of a Pluto-Charon mission and a KBO flyby, are, in rank order, as follows:

    1. Returning to Triton,

    2. Visiting a Centaur, and

    3. Encountering a suite of Kuiper Belt objects and/or Centaurs with different spectral and/or orbital characteristics.

Spacecraft Technology

Exploration of the outermost regions of the solar system is a demanding task, especially in an era of tight financial limitations. Although considerable progress has been made in the development of new-style missions to the outer solar system, particularly Pluto flyby missions, the technological obstacles of returning substantial scientific data from >30 AU remain formidable. Although considerable cost savings can be realized by reducing the size of the spacecraft and the complexity of its instruments, missions to the outer solar system still will demand a high launch energy, have a long mission duration (>10 years), be in low sunlight, and have a long telecommunications link. Advanced missions, such as those to put a spacecraft into orbit around a trans-neptunian object or to conduct multiple flybys of different objects, will almost certainly require the use of advanced propulsion techniques. Thus, the development of mission-enabling technologies (e.g., propulsion, compact power sources, autonomous operations, active fault management, radiation-hardened electronics, and long-distance communications) is an important adjunct to any program for the exploration of the trans-neptunian solar system. In addition, compact scientific instruments capable of characterizing the physical and chemical properties of cold (<40 Kelvin), icy objects in the distant outer solar system are needed.

Telescopic Observations

Continued support for both ground- and space-based telescopic studies is an essential aspect of a program for the exploration of the trans-neptunian solar system. The highest priority for both ground- and space-based studies is significant access to existing and future moderate- to large-aperture telescopes equipped with modern instrumentation designed to meet the needs of planetary observers. Telescopes in the 2- to 4-meter class are ideally suited to searching for new KBOs. But larger telescopes (8 to 10 m) are required for spectroscopic studies of known KBOs.

Augmentations

Although access to suitable telescopes can provide much new data, with augmentations in a few critical areas ground- and space-based observations could provide even more information about the trans-neptunian solar system. These augmentations include:

Equipping future large space telescopes to study trans-neptunian objects. To be capable of making the critical measurements of trans-neptunian objects, future large space telescopes should be designed from the outset to incorporate the ability to track moving targets and to measure the thermal emission from small, cold (<40 Kelvin) objects.

Developing instrumentation for ground- and space-based telescopes. Studies of the statistical properties of Kuiper Belt objects would benefit greatly from the availability of large array detectors. In addition, studies of the physical and chemical properties of all trans-neptunian objects would be enhanced by the availability of high-quantum-efficiency array detectors (~1 to 10 microns for studies of reflected light and ~10 to 100 microns for studies of thermal emission), and cooled telescopes.

Research and Analysis

Continued support for research and analysis programs and for relevant theoretical and laboratory studies is an essential component of a program of spacecraft and telescopic observations of the trans-neptunian solar system. Theoretical and laboratory studies of the physical and chemical processes that influence the structure and evolution of cold (<40 Kelvin), icy bodies located in the trans-neptunian region should be fully supported to enhance the scientific return from spacecraft missions and telescopic observations.

REFERENCES

1. Space Studies Board, National Research Council, An Integrated Strategy for the Planetary Sciences: 1995-2010, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1994, pp. 12-13.

2. C. Kowal, "A Solar System Survey," Icarus 77:118, 1989.

3. D.C. Jewitt, J.X. Luu, and J. Chen, "The Mauna Kea-Cerro Tololo (MKCT) Kuiper Belt and Centaur Survey," Astronomical Journal 455:1225, 1996.

4. D.P. Cruikshank, ed., Neptune and Triton, University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, 1995.


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