Publishing 2012
Washington Book Publishers
Athens, GA, Feb 2007
total
Michael Jon Jensen
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Publishing 2012:
Current and Future Publishing Issues
Washington Book Publishers
 April 2007
Michael Jensen
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Framework for Evening
  • Self-introduction
  • Historical analysis of media communications changes: Phase I and Phase II
  • "Web 2.0" and its implications
  • Overview on discoverability vs. invisibility
  • SWOT
  • Prospective analysis of near future, as it relates to publishing

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Michael Jensen self-introduction
Entire career has focused on technology in the world of scholarly and nonprofit publishing.

Typesetting books from 1983-1988

1986-1995: University of Nebraska Press, Electronic Media Manager
  • Produced first searchable online catalog by a publisher, via Telnet, 1989
  • Producing CD-ROMs, later Web, also network management, database infrastructure, modems, etc.

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Michael Jensen self-introduction, cont'd
1995 - 1998: Johns Hopkins University Press, Electronic Publisher
Large online journals program (Project Muse), several CDROMs, two online reference works

1998-now: National Academies Press, Director of Publishing Technologies
2001-now: National Academies, Director of Web Communications

Teach courses in George Washington University's Master's in Publishing
program.
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National Academies Press
Publisher for The National Academies:
  • National Academy of Sciences
  • National Academy of Engineering
  • Institute of Medicine
  • National Research Council
Non-governmental, nonpolitical, nonprofit.

Publication print runs range from 100 to 50,000.

Reports written by committees of expert volunteers, to inform public policy.

Primary difference: we have few royalty or contractual issues with authors.
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National Academies Press: Data Points
  • Publishes ~ 200 reports/year advising the nation on
    science, engineering, technology, medicine, and health policy
  • More than 3600 reports fully, freely browsable online (more than
    650,000 pages available, each printable)
  • More than 18,000,000 visitors/year (~ 1.5M/month, 2006)
  • 160,000,000 book page views/year
  • NAP has been digitizing publications for free online dissemination
    since 1994 (first page images, then page-based HTML, + PDFs, TEI XML)
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Realities of Technology Change
  • Print will be with us for rest of our professional lives, because of the habits of our culture, and the preferences of the market.
  • Technology itself is a key driver, but not the only one. Culture and tradition are also key.
  • Communications technologies, and the cultural responses to it, have affected the publishing business dramatically, yet we are slow to respond.
  • Our future is a mix of print AND digital. Some projects will be digital only, but fewer every year will be print only
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Phase I:
Majority PC, with Basic Internet Access (1993 - 2003)

  • PCs cheap enough to be in most homes
  • CD-ROMs are best transmission device for most material (650-700 MB)
  • Educational material sells well (demographic match)
  • Games sell well

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Phase I continued: Internet access
  • Generally modem over telephone line
  • Store-and-forward, nothing "streaming"
  • Not fully dependable
  • Takes 20 seconds to "log on"
  • May be per-minute charges
  • Mostly links-to-things and "sites" -- no Google
  • Requires relationship with "service provider"

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Phase I continued: Audience attitudes:

  • Content is scarce, valued, and of presumed quality
  • Books, magazines, newspapers are still the gold standards.
  • Paper version is "real thing"
  • Content is still considered a "thing": container = content
  • Universities had networks early, and had libraries with increasing budgets for "e-stuff"

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Phase I continued: Publishing Successes

Most e-publishing projects that succeed are large collections:

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Phase I continued: Publisher Sales Models

  • Institutional Subscriptions (requires continuing technical, organizational, and marketing infrastructure)
  • Institutional Sales (provide collected data to libraries, who have their own presentation/rights infrastructure)
  • CD-ROMs, though librarians grew to hate them
  • Very few successful "rent to individual" or "sale to individual" projects.
  • Many, many failures: ebooks on floppy, ebooks on CD, ebooks on E-Reader, etc.

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Phase II:
Ubiquitous PC, Majority Broadband (2004 - )

  • PCs with broadband in most homes and businesses
  • Email nearly universal
  • Web integrated into daily life
  • Every business must have a Web site
  • CD-ROMs generally only given away
  • Always-on access, instantly
  • Information abundance, not scarcity

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Phase II continued: Audience Attitudes/Expectations

  • Content must be findable online (or else it doesn't exist)
  • At least part of it must be free
  • Content is what is read, regardless of container
  • Paper is just another container, with particular advantages for some purposes
  • Content itself is less highly valued, there being so much of it
  • CD-ROMs are despised as e-content -- "why isn't it online"?

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Phase II continued: Publisher Challenges

  • Libraries still important market for peer-reviewed digital projects
  • Library budgets continue to be aimed at digital
  • Open Access models challenge traditional value-added "restricted access" models
  • Content must compete with Wikipedia and other free material for attention
  • Still no single standard in format or for "what people want" -- and probably never will be

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Phase II continued: Successful Publishing Models
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Success stories in online publishing

Books to consumer:
  • NAP
  • Google Book Search
  • Many small successes: individual books, books with blogs around them, mostly books made freely readable
  • Cory Doctorow example of author-driven open access success

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Success stories in online publishing, cont'd

Book aggregators still in business and are paying publishers:

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Success stories in online publishing, cont'd

Journals:

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Success stories in online publishing, cont'd

Topical Collections:

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Some Publishing Realities
  • Long tail: evidence from NAP calendar 2006, 15000 items possible, 1100 items bought once, 3600 items bought < 10, approx. 17% revenue.
  • The publishing tradition of a 3-year lifespan for a book is no longer true; no meaningful content need (or will) ever die
  • Our markets are now much wider, but are also so shallow that we can no longer find them: they will need to find us
  • Huge audiences mean small numbers can matter: 0.2% of visitors to NAP purchase something
  • Publishers are very ill-prepared for confronting "market of one"
  • Publishers not accustomed to topical partnerships (online resources on a topic; appealing to the "deep niche")

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Our Audiences
  • Increasingly Web-focused, when looking for content
  • Increasingly specialized (but often multi-specialized) -- "the deep niche"
  • Live in a world of free abundance
  • Trust their friends' opinions more than professional reviewers'
  • Have many devices at their disposal: (cheap book scanners, ebook readers, laptops, formal and informal peer-to-peer "networks")

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Glimmers of "Web 2.0"
What is Web 2.0?
  • Idea popularized by Tim O'Reilly
  • "The Web as a programming platform"
  • "Live web"
  • "Social Networking"
  • "Architecture of Participation"
  • "Lightweight and flexible business models"
  • "Machine-to-machine intelligence"

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Examples of "Web 2.0"

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Most of "Web 2.0" is alien to existing publishing culture
  • Distributed expertise
  • Trusting users to add value
  • Few intermediaries
  • Enabling content, rather than providing content
  • Biggest competitors to traditional publishing online
  • Most Web 2.0 "publishers" are non-traditional, non-paper
  • However, it's where most of the excitement (and venture capital) resides

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Taking Advantage of Web 2.0: Discoverability
  • Google is biggest example of "collective intelligence"
  • PageRank: short explanation
  • Search Engine Optimization
  • Our content can be "destinations" for collective intelligence (if it's made available)
  • Entice your customers to have a relationship with you
  • Respect your customers in return

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Fighting Invisibility: Search Engine Optimization
  • Linked key terms, actively used
  • Substantive content, highly internally linked
  • Ensure others link to you
  • Ensure all website images have "meaningful alt tags"
  • Encourage participation by others (email this, digg/del.icio.us/etc.)

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Publishing 2012: the near future
  • Universal broadband, even in rural areas
  • Always-on, all the time
  • Cellphone/E-Ink/handheld readers much cheaper
  • Print On Demand + traditional print
  • Podcast/videocast/samplers habitual
  • "Information" cheap/free, some "knowledge" still purchased
  • Online audience participation presumed
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Publishing 2012, Continued
  • Web content has grown 1000%
  • Web content is "basic library" for everyone
  • Library funding is now threatened
  • "Harvesters" and "Web 3.0" -- machine intelligences processing and finding value for individuals
  • "Free" content continues to win in most markets
  • Open access predominates
  • Every publisher's competition is everything else in the world
  • Many niches for quality, many niches for specialty, many niches of specialized customers
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Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT)
What Strengths can be amplified?
  • Content that is best in print, but promotable digitally?
  • Content that is appealing for a particular audience?
  • Content that is worth paying for?
  • Content you can sell to aggregators?
  • Content you can use to entice, for other purposes?
  • Content in multiple "containers"?
  • Partnerships with other publishers and entities?
  • Understanding of marketplace and intermediators?
  • Understanding of audience expectations?
  • Understanding of author expectations?
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SWOT: Weaknesses
What Weaknesses need adjusting?
  • Preconceptions about what a "book" is?
  • Understanding of "online culture"?
  • In-house technical skills?
  • Rich metadata for providing to partners?
  • Investment in training/education of staff?
  • Emphasis on reference/"information" publishing?
  • Contacts in outsourcing businesses?
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SWOT: Opportunities
What Opportunities are arising?
  • Huge potential new audiences/markets via Google, Yahoo, etc.
  • Potential library markets for aggregated content
  • New companies/technologies are making it easier to digitize and e-publish
  • Amazon and other digital marketplaces enable additional revenue
  • Consortial arrangements (publisher cooperation) on topic-specific aggregations
  • Remote print-on-demand reduces shipping costs, local print-on-demand decreases warehousing (but still higher unit cost)
  • Possible to "test market" with POD
  • First-to-market collections of historical/social sciences resources for university library market, via partnerships
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SWOT: Threats
Current and Near-future Threats
  • Self-publishing easier than ever (see Lulu.com)
  • Changes in peer review process, via online systems, may threaten that scholarly publisher specialty
  • Low-cost book scanners can scan 250 pages an hour into searchable (and sharable) PDF
  • Peer-to-peer networks
  • Low capital outlay for e-publications
  • "Aggregations of amateurs" means millions of competitors for audience's reading time
  • User resistance to Digital Rights Management
  • Alienating our base by fighting wind with a legal shotgun
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Changing E-publishing Skill Requirements
In 2002:
  • 50% IT understanding, 15% Web understanding, 5% external engagement, 40% content understanding, etc.
In 2007:
  • 20% IT understanding, 30% Web market understanding, 10% external engagement, 30% content understanding, 10% creative thought, etc.
In 2012:
  • 2% IT understanding, 25% Web market understanding, 25% external engagement, 23% content understanding, 25% creative thought, etc.
See Graph

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E-publishing Skill Sets, continued
  • Technology implementation can be outsourced, but understanding cannot
  • Broadly engaged in information space
  • Find and mine new niches
  • Find and mine micromarkets for your content
  • Find and monetize licensing opportunities
  • Be willing to take risks with openness, the hardest thing for any publisher to do.
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Conclusion: Required Conceptual Shifts:
  • Intermediation: Traditional publishing sells through bookstores and wholesalers; Web is direct-to-individual
  • Relationships: Online interactions are with individuals, and so our thinking about our customers, and customer service, must change
  • Formats: Container is not the same as content. Sell the container, be open with the content.
  • Context: World of information abundance, rather than scarcity
  • Markets: New "deep niche" markets demand agility
  • Openness: Free content is required, so customers can find our material
  • Forever: Broadband abundance, the "Long Tail," and the always-on society will change publishing models forever
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Final Discussions
  • Disagreements?
  • Questions?
  • Primal screams?
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Thank you!

Michael Jensen