For many years, communities have prepared themselves to deal with accidental atmospheric releases from industrial sites, energy facilities, and vehicles transporting hazardous materials. Today, these communities must also worry about the terrorist threat of the intentional use of chemical, biological, and nuclear (C/B/N) agents. Because of this threat, the ability to predict and track the dispersal of harmful agents has become a critical element of terrorism planning and response.
Our nationï¿½s capacity to respond to atmospheric C/B/N events stands, like a three legged stool, on the strength of three interconnected elements: 1) dispersion models that predict the path and spread of the hazardous agent; 2) observations of the hazardous plume itself and of local meteorological conditions, which provide critical input for the models; and 3) interaction with emergency responders who use the information provided by the models.
As part of the National Academies continuing focus on issues of homeland security, Tracking and Predicting the Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Releases examines our nationï¿½s current capabilities in these three areas and provides recommendations for strengthening them.
Table of Contents
|2. User Needs||11-18|
|3. Observational Capabilities and Needs||19-32|
|4. Dispersion Modeling: Application to C/B/N Releases||33-54|
|Acronyms and Abbreviations||57-59|
|Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and Participant List||63-68|
|Appendix B: Overview of Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling||69-71|
|Appendix C: Meteorological Observing Systems for Tracking and Modeling C/B/N Plumes||72-77|
|Appendix D: Scientific and Technical Information Needs of Emergency First Responders||78-79|
|Appendix E: Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations||80-84|
|Appendix F: Modeling Studies of the Dispersion of Smoke Plumes from the World Trade Center Fires||85-86|
|Appendix G: Use of Atmospheric Models in Response to the Chernobyl Disaster||87-88|
|Appendix H: Preparatory Exercises at the Salt Lake City Olympics||89-90|
|Appendix I: URBAN 2000 Overview||91-93|
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