Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

National Research Council

doi:10.17226/12087

Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3:Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data (2008)

Consensus Study Report

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Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data(2008)

Consensus Study Report

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Overview

Contributors

National Research Council; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change; Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies; Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

Description

This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.

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Suggested Citation

National Research Council. 2008. Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.https://doi.org/10.17226/12087.

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Publication Info

56 pages |8.5 x 11
ISBNs:

Paperback: 978-0-309-11568-1
Ebook: 978-0-309-17859-4

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/12087

Contents

Table of Contents	skim chapter
Front Matter	i-x
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	1-3
1 INTRODUCTION	4-9
2 OVERVIEW ISSUES	10-14
3 RESPONSIVENESS TO PROSPECTUS QUESTIONS	15-23
4 SUPPORT FOR FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS	24-32
5 ORGANIZATION AND ACCESSIBILITY	33-39
References	40-42
APPENDIX A Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program	43-43
APPENDIX B Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff	44-46

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