Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Table of Contents
|1 Climate Change as a National Security Concern||15-34|
|2 Climate Change, Vulnerability, and National Security: A Conceptual Framework||35-52|
|3 Potentially Disruptive Climate Events||53-74|
|4 How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stresses||75-96|
|5 Climate Events and National Security Outcomes||97-138|
|6 Methods for Assessing National Security Threats||139-160|
|Appendix A: Committee Member and Staff Biographies||179-186|
|Appendix B: Briefings Received by the Committee||187-188|
|Appendix C: Method for Developing Figure 3-1||189-192|
|Appendix D: Statistical Methods for Assessing Probabilities of Extreme Events||193-202|
|Appendix E: Foundations for Monitoring ClimateSecurity Connections||203-238|
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