This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes.
Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses.
The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.
Table of Contents
|Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward a Second Revolution||29-32|
|2 The Search for Useful Information||33-51|
|3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis||52-88|
|Appendix: Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals||89-96|
|Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool||97-100|
|4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now||101-122|
|5 Databases for Microsimulation||123-152|
|6 Model Design and Development||153-181|
|7 Computing Technology and Microsimulation||182-193|
|8 Microsimulation Modeling of Health Care, Retirement Income, and Tax Policies||194-230|
|10 Documentation and Archiving||265-272|
|11 The Microsimulation Modeling Community||273-289|
|Appendix: Microsimulation Models, Databases, and Modeling Terms||290-310|
|Glossary of Acronyms||311-313|
|Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff||331-346|
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