As the nation’s economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices.
Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation’s S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Table of Contents
|2 History and Current Status of S2S Forecasting||25-42|
|3 Enhancing the Value and Benefits of S2S Forecasts||43-82|
|4 Sources of Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictability||83-116|
|5 S2S Forecast Systems: Capabilities, Gaps, and Potential||117-206|
|6 Interface Between Research and Operations||207-222|
|7 Cyberinfrastructure and Workforce Capacity Building||223-238|
|8 Vision and Way Forward for S2S Earth System Prediction||239-278|
|Appendix A: Committee's Statement of Task||317-318|
|Appendix B: Details of Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecast Systems||319-322|
|Appendix C: Past, Current, and Planned Major International Process Studies||323-328|
|Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members||329-336|
The National Academies Press and the Transportation Research Board have partnered with Copyright Clearance Center to offer a variety of options for reusing our content. You may request permission to:
For most Academic and Educational uses no royalties will be charged although you are required to obtain a license and comply with the license terms and conditions.
For information on how to request permission to translate our work and for any other rights related query please click here.
For questions about using the Copyright.com service, please contact:
Copyright Clearance Center
22 Rosewood Drive
Danvers, MA 01923
Tel (toll free): 855/239-3415 (select option 1)
Loading stats for Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts...