Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones.
The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts.
The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables,
Table of Contents
|Part I - Guidance Document||13-14|
|Chapter 1 - Introduction||15-36|
|Chapter 2 - Using Measured Accuracy to Communicate Uncertainty||37-45|
|Chapter 3 - Archiving Traffic Forecasts and Associated Data||46-57|
|Chapter 4 - Reporting Accuracy Results||58-65|
|Chapter 5 - Improving Traffic Forecasting Methods||66-70|
|Chapter 6 - Implementation and Future Research||71-72|
|Part II - Technical Report||75-76|
|Chapter 1 - Overview||77-80|
|Chapter 2 - Large-N Analysis||81-93|
|Chapter 3 - Deep Dives||94-113|
|Chapter 4 - Conclusions||114-121|
|Part III - Appendices||125-125|
|Appendix A - Electronic Resources||127-128|
|Appendix B - Forecast Archive Annotated Outline (Silver Standard)||129-132|
|Appendix C - Deep Dive Annotated Outline||133-142|
|Appendix D - Forecast Card Data Assumptions||143-150|
|Appendix E - Implementation Plan||151-156|
|Appendix F - Literature Review||157-174|
|Appendix G - Large-N Analysis||175-224|
|Appendix H - Deep Dives||225-296|
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