Understanding and communicating consistently reliable crash prediction results are critical to credible analysis and to overcome barriers for some transportation agencies or professionals utilizing these models.
The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 303: Understanding and Communicating Reliability of Crash Prediction Models provides guidance on being able to assess and understand the reliability of Crash Prediction Models.
Table of Contents
|Chapter 1. Introduction and Background||5-16|
|Chapter 2. Survey of Practitioners||17-20|
|Chapter 3. Procedures for Quantifying the Reliability of Crash Prediction Model Estimates with a Focus on Mismatch Between CMFs and SPF Base Conditions||21-43|
|Chapter 4. Procedures for Quantifying the Reliability of Crash Prediction Model Estimates with a Focus on Error in Estimated Input Values||44-52|
|Chapter 5. Procedures for Quantifying the Reliability of Crash Prediction Model Estimates with a Focus on How the Number of Variables in CPM Affects Reliability||53-61|
|Chapter 6. Reliability Associated with Using a CPM to Estimate Frequency of Rare Crash Types and Severities: Overview of the Problem with Possible Solutions||62-72|
|Chapter 7. Reliability Associated with Predicting Outside the Range of Independent Variables: Problem Description and Procedure for Practitioners||73-89|
|Chapter 8. Reliability Associated with Predictions Using CPMs Estimated for Other Facility Types: Problem Illustration with Possible Solutions||90-99|
|Chapter 9. Summary and Conclusions||100-100|
|Appendix A: The Development of Procedures for Quantifying the Reliability of Crash Prediction Model Estimates with a Focus on Mismatch Between CMFs and SPF Base Conditions||103-141|
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