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CPapers Comm ssioned by the Panel C. Michael Aho, Council on Foreign Relations: A survey of the problems for U.S. trade policy created by the increased importance of technology in international trade, including an evaluation of policy responses. Martin Neil Baily, The Brookings Institution: An analysis of the decline in productivity during the past decade, including discussion of the role of innovation, diffusion, and investment. Evidence is provided from specific studies of the textile, electronics, chemical, financial services, automo- bile, and apparel industries. Martin Binkin, The Brookings Institution: A description and evaluation of military efforts to assess the training and skill requirements of new technology, including a review of specific military assessments of man- power and skill requirements associated with the use and maintenance of computer-based weapons systems. David E. Bloom and McKinley L. Blackburn, Harvard University: A review of the literature on the impact of technological change on the distribution of income, including an evaluation of new evidence on the distributions of income and earnings and on changes in those distributions over the past two decades. Joseph Cordes, George Washington University: A survey of the empirical evidence on the impacts of tax policy on investment in the creation of technological knowledge (through R&D), as well as the impact of tax 213
214 APPENDIX C policy on the adoption of new technologies (primarily through investment incentives). The paper also incorporates a brief comparison of the treatment of these issues in industrial competitor nations. Robert M. Costrell, University of Massachusetts: Analysis of a multisec- tor model with supporting statistical evidence on the process of technical change and the shift of employment from goods production to services. The model incorporates the foreign sector and considers its implications for wages as well as employment. Donald Critchlow, University of Notre Dame: An analysis and critique of the report of the 1966 National Commission on Technology, Auto- mation, and Economic Progress with particular reference to its impact on policy. Steven Deutsch, University of Oregon: A survey of the literature analyz- ing and evaluating public and private programs for retraining and job placement for displaced workers in manufacturing. The paper incorpo- rates discussion of similar programs in Europe and Canada. Kenneth Flamm, The Brookings Institution and The World Bank: An analysis of the economics of robot use. The paper also examines the adoption and utilization of robots based on recently collected U.S. and Japanese data. Jeffrey Hart, Indiana University, and Jeanne Schaaf, Telenet Corpora- tion: A discussion of the U.S. employment impacts of current and prospective growth in international trade in services, considering the role of new technologies in supporting such trade. Joseph Hight, U.S. Department of Labor: An analysis apportioning sectoral changes in employment levels during 1972-1985 into demand effects, productivity effects, and import effects. Larry Hirschhorn, University of Pennsylvania: A summary of the exten- sive literature on management and human resources problems associated with the adoption of information technologies in the services sector, examining the evidence on labor displacement and skill impacts and considering the effects of information technologies on the organization of work and firms in the services sector. Jonathan Leonard, University of California, Berkeley, and National Bureau of Economic Research: An analysis of microdata on job creation and loss
APPENDIX C 215 as well as the dynamics of employment and unemployment trends during 1978-1984. Alan Jay Marcus, Center for Naval Analyses: A description of the military's experience with providing training for technology-based occu- pations. The paper includes a profile of those receiving such training and compares their postservice employment experiences with those of grad- uates of comparable civilian training. Michael Morgan, University of Washington: Examination of the chal- lenges to the existing occupational safety and health regulatory apparatus that are raised by microelectronics-based and information technologies in manufacturing and services. David C. Mowery, Carnegie-Mellon University: An assessment of the scope and speed of diffusion of technological innovations. Walter Oi, University of Rochester: A report on the impacts of techno- logical change on wages, hours, and conditions of work in retail and wholesale trade. Michael Podgursky, University of Massachusetts: A statistical analysis of the wage, benefit, and employment experience of displaced workers. Kenneth I. Spenner, Duke University: An analysis of the effect of information technologies on the demand for skills and the implications for training and education. Kan Young and Carol Lawson, Department of Commerce: An input- output model based on investigation of the ejects of technological change on employment at the industry level over the period 1977-1984.