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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty

Evaluation of Current Methodology

Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas

Constance F. Citro and Graham Kalton, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. RN96131001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U. S. Department of Education. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-9709489). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Suggested citation: National Research Council (2000). Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, Constance F. Citro and Graham Kalton, editors. Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Printed in the United States of America

Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

PANEL ON ESTIMATES OF POVERTY FOR SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS

GRAHAM KALTON (Chair),

Westat, Rockville, Maryland

DAVID M. BETSON,

Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame

NANCY E. DUNTON,

Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri

WAYNE A. FULLER,

Department of Statistics, Iowa State University

THOMAS B. JABINE, Consultant,

Washington, D.C.

SYLVIA T. JOHNSON,

School of Education, Howard University

THOMAS A. LOUIS,

School of Public Health, University of Minnesota

SALLY C. MORTON,

RAND, Santa Monica, California

JEFFREY S. PASSEL,

Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

J.N.K. RAO,

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario

ALLEN L. SCHIRM,

Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C.

PAUL R. VOSS,

Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin

JAMES H. WYCKOFF,

Graduate School of Public Affairs, State University of New York, Albany

ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY,

Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director

MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Staff Officer

MICHELE VER PLOEG, Research Associate

MEYER ZITTER, Consultant

TELISSIA M. THOMPSON, Senior Project Assistant

JAMIE CASEY, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1999-2000

JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair),

Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California

JOSEPH G. ALTONJI,

Department of Economics, Northwestern University

LAWRENCE D. BROWN,

Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania

JULIE DAVANZO,

RAND, Santa Monica, California

WILLIAM F. EDDY,

Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University

HERMANN HABERMANN,

Statistics Division, United Nations, New York

WILLIAM D. KALSBEEK,

Survey Research Unit, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina

RODERICK J.A. LITTLE,

School of Public Health, University of Michigan

THOMAS A. LOUIS,

School of Public Health, University of Minnesota

CHARLES F. MANSKI,

Department of Economics, Northwestern University

EDWARD B. PERRIN,

Department of Health Services, University of Washington

FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO,

Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis

RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE,

Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO,

Department of Economics, University of Michigan

ANDREW A. WHITE, Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

 5

 

ALTERNATIVE COUNTY MODELS

 

44

   

 Model Characteristics,

 

45

   

 Models Examined in the First Round of Evaluations,

 

46

   

 Models Examined in the Second Round of Evaluations,

 

53

 6

 

EVALUATIONS OF COUNTY ESTIMATES

 

57

   

 Overview of Evaluations,

 

58

   

 County Model Internal Evaluation,

 

60

   

 County Model External Evaluation,

 

68

   

 State Model Evaluation,

 

102

 7

 

SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES

 

109

   

 Issues in Estimating Poverty for School Districts,

 

110

   

 Estimation Procedure,

 

113

   

 Evaluations,

 

115

   

 School Lunch Data,

 

124

   

 Assessment,

 

129

 8

 

POPULATION ESTIMATES

 

141

   

 Methods for Population Estimates,

 

142

   

 Evaluation of County Estimates,

 

146

   

 Evaluation of School District Estimates,

 

154

 9

 

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES

 

157

   

 Schedule Considerations,

 

158

   

 Short-Term Priorities,

 

159

   

 Documentation and Evaluation,

 

167

 

 

APPENDICES

 
   

A MODELS FOR COUNTY AND STATE POVERTY ESTIMATES171

 
   

B REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS ON ALTERNATIVE COUNTY REGRESSION MODELS

 

185

   

C COUNTY MODEL COMPARISONS WITH 1990 CENSUS ESTIMATES

 

194

   

D USE OF SCHOOL LUNCH DATA IN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE ESTIMATION OF SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY: AN ANALYSIS

 

226

   

E SPECIAL CASE: ESTIMATES FOR PUERTO RICO

 

244

 

 

REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY

 

246

 

 

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF

 

251

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

Preface

The Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas was established by the Committee on National Statistics at the National Research Council in response to the Improving America's Schools Act of 1994. That act charged the U.S. Census Bureau to produce updated estimates of poor school-age children every two years for the nation's more than 3,000 counties and 14,000 school districts. The act also charged the panel with determining the appropriateness and reliability of the Bureau's estimates for use in the allocation of more than $7 billion of Title I funds each year for educationally disadvantaged children.

Our charge was both a major one and one with immovable deadlines. The panel had to evaluate the Census Bureau's work on a very tight schedule in order to meet legal requirements for allocation of Title I funds. As it turned out, we produced three interim reports: the first one evaluated county-level estimates of poor school-age children in 1993, the second one assessed a revised set of 1993 county estimates; and the third one covered both county- and school district-level estimates of poor school-age children in 1995. This volume combines and updates these three reports into a single reference volume.

The reference volume is intended to serve two purposes. First, it provides specific documentation of the Census Bureau's current methods for producing small-area estimates of poor school-age children, the evaluations that have been conducted of them to date, and their advantages and limitations for Title I fund allocations. Second, it offers a case study of the development, evaluation, and application of model-dependent small-area estimates that may be helpful for

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

future work in small-area estimation and the use of small-area estimates for such important public policy purposes as fund allocations. As a case study, it makes clear the complexity of the estimation task and the necessity of comprehensive evaluations of the quality of the estimates.

This reference volume is a companion to the panel's final report (National Research Council, 2000). That report outlines an agenda for research and development of the Census Bureau's income and poverty estimates for small areas, including further research and development for the Bureau's current models and the possible uses of new survey and administrative records data sources for improving those models. It also discusses issues about the use of such estimates for public programs.

We could not have carried out our work over the past several years without the cooperation and help of many people. The panel notes, first, the many people in the U.S. Departments of Education and Commerce who contributed to the panel's work of reviewing the Census Bureau 's small-area estimates of poor school-age children that are described in this volume. We thank the current and former staff of the Census Bureau who prepared the estimates, many of whom also worked on evaluations of them: David Aultman, William Bell, Patrick Cardiff, John Coder, Robert Fay, Robin Fisher, Matthew Kramer, Esther Miller, Mark Otto, Ronald Prevost, Douglas Sater, Paul Siegel, Cotty Armstrong Smith, Alexander Strand, Jess Thompson, George Train, David Waddington, and Signe Wetrogan. We also thank the Census Bureau staff who facilitated the arrangements for the work: Cynthia Clark, Nancy Gordon, Charles Nelson, and Daniel Weinberg.

Daniel Kasprzyk of the National Center for Education Statistics, who served as project officer for the study for the U.S. Department of Education, was most helpful in facilitating the panel's work throughout the project. The panel also appreciates the help of other Department of Education staff–in particular, Sandy Brown, Thomas Corwin, Lonna Jones, Kay Rigling, William Sonnenberg, and Stephanie Stullich–in providing information and educating us about the allocation process for the Title I program.

The panel also thanks Rona Briere, freelance editor, and Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, for helping to combine the text of the panel's three interim reports into a single, seamless volume.

The three interim reports that are combined in this volume were reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published volume as sound as possible and to ensure that the volume meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

study charge. The review comments and draft manuscripts remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of one or more of the reports that make up this volume: Johnny Blair, Survey Research Center, University of Maryland; James R. Chromy, Statistics Research Division, Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC; Emerson Elliott, National Council for the Accreditation of Teacher Education, Alexandria, VA; Eric Hanushek, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; Robert Hauser, Center for Demography, University of Wisconsin; Lyle V. Jones, L.L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory, University of North Carolina; Roderick J.A. Little, Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan; Lincoln Moses, Department of Biostatistics, Medical Center, Stanford University; William O 'Hare, Annie E. Casey Foundation; John Pratt, Graduate School of Business, Harvard University; Nathaniel Schenker, National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Stanley Smith, Bureau of Economics and Business Research, College of Business, University of Florida; Franklin Wilson, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin; and Kirk Wolter, National Opinion Research Center, Chicago, IL.

Although the individuals listed above provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this volume rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.

Finally, I thank my fellow panel members and the project staff for all their efforts. The panel members willingly gave their time, commitment, hard work, and good cheer to our endeavor to provide valuable and timely information for allocating funds as fairly as possible for poor school-age children. Constance Citro has performed in a truly outstanding manner as the project's study director, and she has been very ably assisted by Michael Cohen, Michele Ver Ploeg, Meyer Zitter, Telissa Thompson, and Jamie Casey. It has been a pleasure to work with the panel and the project staff over the past four years to carry out our very challenging charge.

Graham Kalton, Chair

Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×
This page in the original is blank.
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
×

Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10046.
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The Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas was established by the Committee on National Statistics at the National Research Council in response to the Improving America's Schools Act of 1994. That act charged the U.S. Census Bureau to produce updated estimates of poor school-age children every two years for the nation's more than 3,000 counties and 14,000 school districts. The act also charged the panel with determining the appropriateness and reliability of the Bureau's estimates for use in the allocation of more than $7 billion of Title I funds each year for educationally disadvantaged children.

The panel's charge was both a major one and one with immovable deadlines. The panel had to evaluate the Census Bureau's work on a very tight schedule in order to meet legal requirements for allocation of Title I funds. As it turned out, the panel produced three interim reports: the first one evaluated county-level estimates of poor school-age children in 1993, the second one assessed a revised set of 1993 county estimates; and the third one covered both county- and school district-level estimates of poor school-age children in 1995. This volume combines and updates these three reports into a single reference volume.

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