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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
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Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

Panel on Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. 50-DKNA-6-90040 between the National Academies and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Grant No. ATM-9814235 between the National Academies and the National Science Foundation. Additional support for this study was provided by the Department of Energy and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations, agencies, or subagencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number: 0309-07257-3

Library of Congress Control Number: 2001088954

Additional copies of this report are available from

National Academy Press,
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Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

PANEL ON IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF U.S. CLIMATE MODELING

EDWARD S. SARACHIK (Chair),

University of Washington, Seattle

LENNART BENGTSSON,

Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany

MAURICE L. BLACKMON,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

MARGARET A. LEMONE,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

ROBERT C. MALONE,

Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

MATTHEW T. O'KEEFE,

University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

RICHARD B. ROOD,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

STEPHEN E. ZEBIAK,

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York

STAFF

VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Study Director

ALEXANDRA R. ISERN, Program Officer

CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE

EUGENE M. RASMUSSON (Chair),

University of Maryland, College Park

EDWARD S. SARACHIK (Vice-Chair),

University of Washington, Seattle

MAURICE L. BLACKMON,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

STANLEY A. CHANGNON,

Midwestern Climate Center, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign

DIAN J. GAFFEN,

NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, Maryland

RICHARD E. HALLGREN,

American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C.

JAMES E. HANSEN,

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York

DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON,

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

RAYMOND NAJJAR,

Pennsylvania State University, University Park

STEVEN W. RUNNING,

University of Montana, Missoula

LYNNE D. TALLEY,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

ANNE M. THOMPSON,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

ANDREW J. WEAVER,

University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

ERIC WOOD,

Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

STAFF

PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer

CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

ERIC J. BARRON (Chair),

Pennsylvania State University, University Park

SUSAN K. AVERY,

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder

HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN,

University of Oklahoma, Norman

STEVEN F. CLIFFORD,

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado

GEORGE L. FREDERICK,

Radian Electronic Systems, Austin, Texas

MARVIN A. GELLER,

State University of New York, Stony Brook

CHARLES E. KOLB,

Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts

JUDITH L. LEAN,

Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.

ROGER A. PIELKE, JR.,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

MICHAEL J. PRATHER,

University of California, Irvine

ROBERT T. RYAN,

WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.

MARK R. SCHOEBERL,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

JOANNE SIMPSON,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

THOMAS F. TASCIONE,

Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska

ROBERT A. WELLER,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts

ERIC F. WOOD,

Princeton University, New Jersey

EX OFFICIO MEMBERS

DONALD S. BURKE,

Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

DARA ENTEKHABI,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

MICHAEL C. KELLEY,

Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

MARIO MOLINA,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

JOHN O. ROADS,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,

University of Maryland, College Park

EDWARD S. SARACHIK,

University of Washington, Seattle

STAFF

ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director

LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer

ALEXANDRA R. ISERN, Program Officer

PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer

VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Program Officer

DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant

ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate

TENECIA A. BROWN, Project Assistant

CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES

GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),

University of Virginia, Charlottesville

RICHARD A. CONWAY,

Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia

LYNN GOLDMAN,

Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,

Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

THOMAS J. GRAFF,

Environmental Defense, Oakland, California

EUGENIA KALNAY,

University of Maryland, College Park

DEBRA KNOPMAN,

Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.

BRAD MOONEY,

J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia

HUGH C. MORRIS,

El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia

H. RONALD PULLIAM,

University of Georgia, Athens

MILTON RUSSELL,

Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville

ROBERT J. SERAFIN,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

ANDREW R. SOLOW,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts

E-AN ZEN,

University of Maryland, College Park

STAFF

ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director

GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director

CHRISTINE HENDERSON, Reports Officer

JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer

SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
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Preface

Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. Seasonal-to-interannual forecasts of the global aspects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been made and have proven valuable in both public and private applications.

  1. Patterns of global climate, especially the North American/Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have been shown to strongly affect regional climate, raising questions about the mechanisms and the predictability of these patterns.

  2. Long-term climate change and the response of the climate to the anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases and constituents have been intensively studied over the last thirty years, with the results being scrutinized to evaluate possible mitigation and adaptation.

  3. Regional assessments of climate variability and change have begun and this has led to an increasing awareness of the intricate interactions of the physical climate, ecological systems, and human institutions.

More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system.

It is in this context that the National Research Council (NRC) report Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities (NRC, 1998a) pointed out that the United States now lags behind other nations in its ability to model the climate. At a time of in-

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

creased need came a message of decreased capacity. This present report is a response, a first response, to that report.

To address the issues involved in improving this situation, the NRC empanelled the authors of this report and charged them with examining the computer and human resource issues involved in assessing U.S. climate modeling needs, especially at the high-end of modeling. The panel itself represented a wide range of expertise in climate and climate modeling, but to supplement its expertise a survey was conducted to gain an appreciation of the magnitude of the issues and to elicit opinions from the modeling community about our present plight and possible solutions. A general meeting of modelers was held at the National Academies on August 21, 2000, to further hear the concerns of the climate modeling community. Considering all these sources of input, the panel deliberated its recommendations and produced this report.

The panel recognizes that one of the most important inadequacies of this report is its inability to place climate modeling fully in the context of the panoply of issues arising from the interaction of physical climate, ecosystems, and human institutions The problem is just too big, as was illustrated in a previous NRC report (NRC, 1999a—‘Pathways'). The panel hopes that this broader context will be recognized and will continue to be addressed in the future.

The discussion of computer architectures reflects the updated information available during panel deliberations and report preparation. Because the field of computer technology is fluid and rapidly evolving, upgrades in computing systems, such as NCEP's recent acquisition of an IBM Power-3 Winterhawk-II, which occurred after the preparation of the report, are not reflected in the report's summary data on computer performance (e.g., Table 3-1). The panel does not believe that such upgrades would change its overall findings or recommendations.

The panel would like to acknowledge the dedicated industry of Dr. Alexandra Isern, Dr. Vaughan Turekian, and Mr. Carter Ford, without whom the production of this report would have been impossible.

E. S. Sarachik

Chair

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

Acknowledgments

The panel greatly appreciates the efforts of all of the survey respondents whose input was critical for the completion of this report. Roberta Miller is greatly acknowledged for her comments and corrections on the surveys prior to their distribution. In addition, the panel would like to thank all of those who participated in the workshop and provided input to the discussions at this meeting. Bob Atlas is acknowledged for providing helpful contributions to this report and Tom Bettge for providing us with a figure. The panel would also like to acknowledge useful discussions with Andy White, Rod Oldehoeft, Tom Ackerman, Chris Davis, Dennis Joseph, Chin-Hoh Moeng, David Parsons, Chris Snyder, Wojtek Grabowski, Xiaoqing Wu, Jim Hoke, Bill McCracken, and Bruce Webster.

The authoring group would like to thank all of those who participated in the review and provided input to the discussions at the August 21-23, 2000, workshop. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
×

ERIC BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

ALAN BETTS, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, Vermont

DAVID DENT, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

INEZ FUNG, University of California, Berkeley

ANTHONY HOLLINGSWORTH, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Redding, United Kingdom

JERRY MAHLMAN, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

DANIEL SAREWITZ, Columbia University, New York, New York

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, appointed by the Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, and Alexander Flax, Potomac, Maryland, appointed by the NRC's Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10087.
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 5.

 

RESPONDING TO CLIMATE MODELING REQUIRMENTS

 

51

   

5.1  Computational Resources Required,

 

51

   

5.2  Will Massively Parallel Architectures Satisfy Our Needs?,

 

55

   

5.3  The Need for Centralized Facilities and Operations,

 

58

   

5.4  Fostering Cooperation With a Common Modeling Infrastructure,

 

58

   

5.5  Human Resources,

 

62

   

5.6  Need for Climate Services and Management Issues,

 

63

   

5.7  Rewarding the Transition Within the Research Community,

 

65

   

5.8  Providing the Best Possible Service to an Informed Public,

 

66

   

5.9  Summary,

 

68

 6.

 

IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF U.S. CLIMATE MODELING

 

69

 7.

 

A VISION FOR THE FUTURE

 

75

   

7.1  Climate Research and Climate Operations,

 

76

   

7.2  Mutual Interactions and Mutual Benefits Between Climate Research and Climate Operations,

 

76

   

7.3  From Vision to Reality,

 

80

 8.

 

REFERENCES

 

81

 

 

APPENDIXES

 
   

A  STEERING COMMITTEE AND STAFF BIOGRAPHIES

 

87

   

B  CAPACITY OF U.S. CLIMATE MODELING TO SUPPORT CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES

 

90

   

C  QUESTIONNAIRE SENT TO LARGE AND INTERMEDIATE MODELING CENTERS

 

95

   

D  QUESTIONNAIRE SENT TO SMALL MODELING CENTERS

 

100

   

E  CLIMATE MODELING SURVEY: SUMMARY RESPONSES

 

105

   

F  WORKSHOP AGENDA

 

113

   

G  WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS

 

115

   

H  SUMMARY OF OTHER RELEVANT REPORTS

 

117

   

I  DESCRIPTION OF DIFFERENT CODES

 

121

   

J  ACRONYMS

 

125

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Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.

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