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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Index

A

Aerosols, 83-84, 86, 138

chlorofluorocarbons, 47, 66, 165

dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144

Africa

disease, 147

drought, 55, 74

Eemian climate change, 39

Younger Dryas, 33-34, 35

Agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152

see also Drought

Albedo, 75, 78, 79, 86

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 158

Annular variation, see Interannual variations

Antarctica, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78, 156, 162

Younger Dryas, 26, 35

Antarctic Oscillation, 49

Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140

Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113

Atlantic Ocean, 36-37, 38, 60-69, 71, 72, 76-77, 80-81, 82, 84, 162

Eemian climate change, 39

El Niño, impacts on, 50, 52, 110

Holocene rapid climate change, 41

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134

thermohaline circulation, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156

tropical variability, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110

Younger Dryas, 34, 35-36, 76-77

Atmosphere-ocean interactions, 47, 62, 67-69, 71, 75-76, 80-83, 84-85, 90, 108, 110, 112

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Antarctic Oscillation, 49

Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113

committee research recommendations, 2, 154

modeling of, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154

general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134

sea surface processes, 47, 50, 51, 79, 84

Atmospheric processes, other, 71, 73, 80-86

see also Drought;

Greenhouse gases;

Precipitation;

Wind

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

circulation, 46, 54, 78, 80-86

(passim), 87

general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

modeling, other, 75

clouds, 71, 73, 80, 83-84, 85, 86, 87

committee research recommendations, 3

fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166

ice core evidence, 6, 19, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162

Eemian climate change, 39

Holocene rapid climate change, 42

Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32

ozone layer depletion, 58

water vapor, 71, 83-84

B

Biodiversity, 17, 108, 128, 136-137, 138, 141, 147, 157

Boreholes, 21, 22

C

Carbon dating, see Radiocarbon measurements

Carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 158

Central America and the Caribbean, 31-32, 34-35

Chaotic processes, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165

Chlorofluorocarbons, 47, 66, 165

Clouds, 71, 73, 80, 83-84, 85, 86, 87

Coastal zones, 3, 47, 72

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 166

socioeconomic impacts of sea-level rise, 129-131, 133

Younger Dryas in Europe, 31

D

Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89

Decadal variations, 6, 48, 46, 52, 153

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation

droughts, 43-44, 53-55

forest dieback, 134-135

global warming, 116

Holocene droughts, 40, 43, 44, 45, 74, 119, 144

Definitional issues

abrupt climate change, general, 14-15

climate, general, 72

Dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135

droughts, 19, 135

Developing countries, 8, 140-141, 164-165, 167

Diseases, see Health effects

Droughts, 1, 15-16, 19, 20, 53-55, 57, 70, 108, 118-119, 128, 133, 134, 135-136, 143-144, 148, 152

Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55

Holocene period, 40, 43, 44, 45, 74, 119, 144

tree ring evidence, 19, 135

wetlands, 139

Dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144

Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55

E

Ecological impacts, 6, 15-17, 118, 120-141, 154-155

committee research recommendations, 2-3, 154-155, 157-159, 161, 162

definitional issues, 14

forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136

(passim), 138, 142-144

modeling, 4, 159, 160-161

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

US National Assessment, 11

wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163

Economic factors, 6, 16-17, 60, 118-152, 154-155, 167

agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152;

see also Drought

coastal zones, 129-131, 133

committee research recommendations, 2-3, 4, 154-155, 157-159, 160, 161, 162

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

developing countries, 8, 140-141, 164-165, 167

Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55

El Niño, 119, 133, 147

floods, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166

forcing, 121-122, 134-141

global warming, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152

insurance, 9, 148, 164, 166

modeling, 5, 129-131, 141-142, 160

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

nonmarket accounts, 3, 128, 154, 158

recreation and leisure, 148, 149

research, 71;

see also Funding

water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166;

see also Drought

Eemian rapid climate change, 38-40

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 14, 48, 50-52, 67, 69, 71-72, 85, 90, 112, 129, 136

Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41-42, 44

precessional insolation, 87

socioeconomic effects, 119, 133, 147

Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47

Energy-balance models, 74, 75

Europe

Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81, 89 disease, 147-148

Eemian climate change, 39

Little Ice Age, 118

North Atlantic Oscillation, 57

Younger Dryas, 30-31, 34

Evapotranspiration, 54, 55

Extinction, species, see Biodiversity

F

Fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166

Fisheries, 60, 61, 138

Floods, 29, 136, 152, 164

Atlantic Ocean, impact on, 76

Holocene period, 40, 44-45, 65

socioeconomic impacts, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166

Forcing and forcing thresholds, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13, 14, 17, 59, 73, 84, 86-88, 107, 111, 114, 154, 158

see also Global warming

Holocene droughts, 44

hysteresis, 93-94, 95, 98-99

models, 74, 75-76, 93-94, 95-97, 100-101

socioeconomic impacts, 121-122, 134-141

oceanic response, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104

Forecasting, weather events, 3, 8, 105, 116, 123, 158, 164, 165-166

Forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136

(passim), 138, 142-144

fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166

Freshwater balance, 6-7, 16, 65, 71, 76, 79, 80, 82, 91, 94, 117, 156-157, 158

see also Salinity;

Thermohaline circulation

global warming, 110, 113-114

groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157

water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166

Funding

committee study at hand, 2, 18

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9

paleoclimatic research, 6

G

General circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

GENESIS model, 82

Glaciers,

see Land ice

Global Change Research Program, 2, 17

Global warming, 8, 43, 55, 62, 82, 105, 107-117, 137

see also Greenhouse gases

freshwater balance, 110, 113-114

socioeconomic impacts, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152

Greenhouse effect, 1, 86, 107-117, 113, 137, 138, 146-147

see also Global warming

carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151

dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144

methane, 25, 27, 30, 36, 83, 87-88, 108, 109, 136, 147

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

“no-regrets” strategies, 8, 165

water vapor, 71, 83-84

Greenland, 6, 15, 36-37, 77, 83, 102, 135-136, 139-140, 156, 162

Eemian climate change, 39

fisheries, 60

Younger Dryas interval, 25-29, 30, 37

Groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157

H

Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87

Health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158

Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115

Historical observations, 3, 7, 11, 45-48, 53-69, 70-72, 74

see also Economic factors;

Social influences and effects

committee report methodology, 17

forest dieback, 135

Holocene rapid climate change, 42, 43-44

Historical perspectives, research, 19, 46

modeling, 74-75

Holocene rapid climate change, 40-45, 52, 69-70, 74, 119, 144

Hurricanes, 125, 165-166

Hydrology, 54, 70, 110, 114, 154, 156-157

see also Floods;

Freshwater balance;

Oceans;

Precipitation

committee research recommendations, 2, 3, 7

groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157

Holocene floods, 65

Hysteresis, 93-94, 95, 98-99

I

Ice, 2, 3, 21, 154

see also Land ice

sea ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154

Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78

Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140

Ice ages, 1, 10, 14-15, 23, 38, 45, 69-70, 77-78, 107

Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163

Ice core evidence, 6, 19, 24, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162

Eemian climate change, 39

Holocene rapid climate change, 42

Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32

Indian Ocean, 67, 68, 72

El Niño, 50, 53

tropical variability, 52-53

Younger Dryas, 35-36

Insurance, 9, 148, 164, 166

Interannual variations, 5, 6, 7, 42, 49

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;

Ice core evidence

Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113

dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135

North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58

Interdisciplinary approaches, see Multidisciplinary approaches

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 116, 133

International Civil Aviation Organization, 61

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, 42

Isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23, 108

radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108

Younger Dryas interval, 25, 30, 33-34

L

Land ice, 3, 20, 22, 52, 73, 78-80, 86, 88-89, 139-140, 145, 154, 156-157

see also Greenland;

Ice ages;

Ice core

evidenceDansgaard/Oeschger

oscillations, 36-37

freshwater discharges from, 76, 101, 116-117

global warming, 113-115

Holocene rapid climate change, 40-41

interglacial periods, 38-40

methane releases, 87-88

models, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113-114, 116-117, 136, 157

Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165

models, 83, 102, 105

Land surface, general, 2, 3, 80, 81, 86, 114, 138, 154-155, 156-158

see also Droughts;

Floods

agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152

fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166

impermeable surfaces, 137

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9

vegetation, 54-55, 137

wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163

Lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39

Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163

M

Marine environments, see Oceans

Methane, 25, 27, 30, 36, 83, 87-88, 108, 109, 136, 147

Models and modeling, 1, 48, 74-75, 94

see also Statistical analyses

atmosphere-ocean interactions, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154

general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

committee report methodology, 17

committee research recommendations, 2, 4-5, 154, 159-161

ecological, 4, 159, 160-161

economic, 5, 129-131, 141-142, 160

El Niño, 42

energy balance, 74, 75

forcing, 74, 75-76, 93-94, 95-97, 100-101

general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

GENESIS model, 82

global warming, 60, 111-112, 113-114, 131-132, 159

historical perspectives, 74-75

instrumental measures and, 46

land ice, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105

mechanical analogy of climate change, 12-13

nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165

ocean, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160

general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

sea-level rise, coastal zone impacts, 129-131

social, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161

thermohaline circulation, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160

two-box models, 74-75, 95-103

Younger Dryas interval, 83, 102, 105

Monte Carlo simulations, 92

Multidisciplinary approaches, 6, 120, 133, 159, 161, 162

N

National Wildlife Health Center, 158

New Zealand, 33

Nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165

“No-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

North America, 128

Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81

drought, Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55

North Atlantic Oscillation, 57

Younger Dryas, 31, 34

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134

O

Oceans, 46, 73, 158

see also Coastal zones;

specific oceans

atmosphere-ocean interaction, 2

circulation, 3, 4, 21, 34, 39, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65-66, 70, 71, 78, 81-82, 89, 90, 155-156, 157, 162

general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87

models, other than GCMs, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160

see also Thermohaline circulation

deepwater, 2, 3, 4, 34, 36-37, 38, 47, 63, 66, 67, 76, 77, 78, 79, 103-104, 108, 154, 155-156, 160, 162

fisheries, 60, 61, 138

forcing, response to, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104

heat transport, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86;

see also Thermohaline circulation

ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154

Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78

Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140

isotopic measurements, 23

methane releases, 87-88

paleoclimatology, 6-7

sea level, 39, 78, 109, 114, 115, 116, 131, 140, 156, 130-131, 133, 148

sea surface, 36, 47, 50, 51, 52, 61-62, 64-65, 71-72, 77, 78, 82, 84, 90, 101, 104, 109-110

Antarctic Oscillation, 49

Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60

North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation

sediments and corals, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129

Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115

sinks, 47-48, 71, 89, 109

Ozone layer depletion, 58

P

Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 51-52, 67, 68

Pacific North American pattern, 50

Pacific Ocean, other, 67, 70, 77-78, 84, 90, 156

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47

Paleoclimate proxies and age indicators, 10, 11, 19-55, 88-89, 113, 114, 118, 153, 156

see also Ice core evidence;

Sediment analyses

biodiversity, 136-137

committee report methodology, 17

committee research recommendations, 2, 5-7, 154, 161-163

Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89

dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135

forest dieback, 134-135

Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115, 108

radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108

isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23

precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 118

Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165

models, 83, 102, 105

PAst Global changES (PAGES), 42

Permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113-114, 116-117, 136, 157

Policy perspectives, 1-2

definitional issues, 14

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

Pollen, 23, 30-34, 39

Precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 58, 84-85, 86, 110, 114, 118, 122, 132, 137, 152, 153, 156-157

see also Droughts;

Floods

R

Radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108

Recreation and leisure, 148, 149

Regional climate change, 1, 10, 11, 16, 49, 58, 59, 70, 135, 155

see also Droughts;

Floods;

Tropical regions;

specific world regions and oceans

Eemian climate change, 39

Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41, 42

human population migrations, 140-141

“no-regrets” strategies, 9

pollen evidence, 30-34, 39

socioeconomic impacts, 129-132

Younger Dryas interval, 30-34

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Research recommendations, 2-9, 18, 69-72, 106, 154-167

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

S

Salinity, 21, 23, 26-27, 29, 47, 59, 62, 63, 64-65, 66-67, 76, 79, 156-157

see also Freshwater balance;

Thermohaline circulation

Younger Dryas interval, 25, 79

Satellite technology, 46, 66, 71

Seas, see Oceans

Seasonal variations, 5, 6, 48

forecasts, 3, 164

marine organism growth, 20

oceans, heat storage, 77

Sediment analyses, 6, 7, 20-24

(passim), 69, 70

Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115

Holocene rapid climate change, 42

lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39

ocean, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129

Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115

pollen, 23, 30-34, 39

Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36

Social influences and effects, 2, 15-17, 18, 44, 87, 118-152, 154, 167

see also Economic factors

coastal zones, 129-131, 133

committee research recommendations, 2, 4, 7, 157-158, 159, 161, 163-164

definitional issues, 14

Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55

El Niño, 119, 133, 147

floods, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166

forcing, 121-122, 134-141

global warming, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152

health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158

Holocene rapid climate change, 40

modeling, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161

policy perspectives, 1-2

definitional issues, 14

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

recreation and leisure, 148, 149

statistical analyses, 126, 163-164

US National Assessment, 11

water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146

South America, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27, 32-33, 34

Statistical analyses

see also Models and modeling

committee research recommendations, 7-8, 163-164, 166

Holocene rapid climate change, 42

Monte Carlo simulations, 92

socioeconomic impacts, 126, 163-164

Storms, 9, 31, 35-36, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55, 109, 125, 133, 148, 163, 165-166

see also Floods

T

Thermohaline circulation (THC), 5, 6-7, 47, 58, 62, 64, 66-67, 77, 79, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 86, 89-106, 108-117

Atlantic Ocean, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156

modeling of, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160

Thresholds, see Forcing and forcing thresholds

Transport processes

see also “circulation” under Atmospheric processes, other, and Oceans

oceans, heat, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86

see also Thermohaline circulation

sea ice, 3, 38

Tree rings,

see Dendrochronology

Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47

Tropical regions, general, 16, 47, 50, 51-53, 59, 71-72, 77, 80, 81-82, 84-86, 90, 149

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;

Indian Ocean

Atlantic, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110

Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87

Holocene droughts, 44

wetlands, 25

Younger Dryas interval, 27, 33, 34, 35

Tundra, see Permafrost/tundra

Two-box models, 74-75, 95-103

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

U

US Global Change Research Program, see Global Change Research Program

US National Assessment, 11

V

Vegetation, 54-55, 137

agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152

forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136 (passim), 133, 134, 135-136, 138, 142-144

fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166

pollen, 23, 30-34, 39

Venezuela, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27

W

Water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166

see also Drought

Water vapor, 71, 83-84

Wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163

lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39

Wind, 21, 22, 36, 62, 65, 66, 81, 89, 104

Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47

Younger Dryas, 25, 27, 29, 35

Y

Yale/NBER Program on International Environmental Economics, 18

Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165

Africa, 33-34, 35

Antarctica, 26, 35

Atlantic Ocean, 34, 35-36, 76-77

Europe, 30-31, 34

Greenland, 25-29, 30, 37

Indian Ocean, 35-36

isotopic indicators, 25, 30, 33-34

models, 83, 102, 105

North America, 31, 34

salinity, 25, 79

sediment analyses, 14, 15, 24-36

South America, 26, 27, 32-33, 34

tropical regions, 27, 33, 34, 35

wind, 25, 27, 29, 35

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes.

Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change?

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps.

Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

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