National Academies Press: OpenBook

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2002)

Chapter: References

« Previous: 6 Findings and Recommendations
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

References

Aagard, K., and E.C. Carmack. 1989. The role of sea ice and other fresh water in the Arctic circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research 94:14,485-14,498.

Abramovitz, J.N. 1996. Imperiled waters, impoverished future: The decline of freshwater ecosystems. Peterson, editor. Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C.

Aeberhardt, M., M. Blatter, and T.F. Stocker. 2000. Variability on the century time scale and regime changes in a stochastically forced zonally averaged ocean-atmosphere model. Geophysical Research Letters 27:1303-1306.

Ágústsdóttir, A.M., R.B. Alley, D. Pollard, and W. Peterson. 1999. Ekman transport and upwelling from wind stress from GENESIS climate model experiments with variable North Atlantic heat convergence. Geophysical Research Letters 26(9):1333-1336.

Ahmad, J., G. Beg Paklar, F. Bonjean, G. Dal Bo’, T. Kaminski, F. Kauker, M. Monai, E. Pierazzo , P. Stone, and L. Zampato. 1997. Pp. 87-100 in The interaction between global warming and the thermohaline circulation. Environmental Dynamics Series, Vol. 4, Istituto Veneto di Scienze, Lettere ed Arti.

Albright, S.C. 1993. A statistical-analysis of hitting streaks in baseball. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88:1175-1183.

Allen, C. 2001. Rapid, Climate-Induced Ecological Disturbances: Forest Dieback, Erosion, and Fire. Summary notes from Abrupt Climate Change Meeting, National Academy of Sciences, March 21-22, Washington, D.C.

Allen, C.D., and D. Breshears. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 95:14,839-14,842.

Alley, R.B. 2000. The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:213-226.

Alley, R.B., and D.R. MacAyeal. 1994. Ice-rafted debris associated with binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Paleoceanography 9:503-511.

Alley, R.B., and P.U. Clark. 1999. The deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere: A global perspective . Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 27:149-182.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Alley, R.B., and R.A. Bindschadler. 2000. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet and sea-level change. Pp. 1-11 in R.B. Alley and R.A. Bindschadler (eds.), The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Behavior and Environment. Antarctic Research Series, Vol. 77. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Alley, R.B., D.A. Meese, C.A. Shuman, A.J. Gow, K.C. Taylor, P.M. Grootes, J.W.C. White, M. Ram, E.D. Waddington, P.A. Mayewski, and G.A. Zielinski. 1993. Abrupt increase in Greenland snow accumulation at the end of the Younger Dryas event. Nature 362:527-529.

Alley, R.B., R.C. Finkel, K. Nishiizumi, S. Anandakrishnan, C.A. Shuman, G.R. Mershon, G.A. Zielinski, and P.A. Mayewski. 1995. Changes in continental and sea-salt atmospheric loadings in central Greenland during the most recent deglaciation. Journal of Glaciology 41(139):503-514.

Alley, R.B., A.J. Gow, S.J. Johnsen, J. Kipfstuhl, D.A. Meese, and T. Thorsteinsson. 1995a. Comparison of deep ice cores. Nature 373:393-394.

Alley, R.B., R.C. Finkel, K. Nishiizumi, S. Anandakrishnan, C.A. Shuman, G.R. Mershon, G.A. Zielinski, and P.A. Mayewski. 1995b. Changes in continental and sea-salt atmospheric loadings in central Greenland during the most recent deglaciation. Journal of Glaciology 41(139):503-514.

Alley, R.B., P.A. Mayewski, T. Sowers, M. Stuiver, K.C. Taylor, and P.U. Clark. 1997. Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8,200 yrs. ago. Geology 25(6):483-486.

Alley, R.B., A.M. Ágústsdóttir, and P.J. Fawcett. 1999. Ice-core evidence of Late-Holocene reduction in north Atlantic ocean heat transport. Pp. 301-312 in P.U. Clark, R.S. Webb and L.D. Keigwin (eds.), Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales, Geophysical Monograph 112. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Alley, R.B., S. Anandakrishnan, and P. Jung. 2001. Stochastic resonance in the North Atlantic. Paleoceanography, 16(2):190-198.

Andrewartha, H.G., and L.C. Birch. 1954. The Distribution and Abundance of Animals. University of Chicago Press, IL.

Andrews, J.T., and K. Tedesco. 1992. Detrital carbonate-rich sediments, northwestern Labrador Sea: Implications for ice-sheet dynamics and iceberg rafting (Heinrich) events in the North Atlantic. Geology 20:1087-90.

Arnell, N.W. 2000. Thresholds and response to climate change forcing: The water sector. Climatic Change 46(3):305-316.


Bains, S., R.M. Corfield, and R.D. Norris. 1999. Mechanisms of climate warming at the end of the Paleocene. Science 285:724-727.

Baker, V. 1998. Paleohydrology and the hydrological sciences. In G. Benito, V. Baker, and K. Gregory (eds.), Palaeohydrology and Environmental Change. John Wiley and Sons, Ltd., New York.

Baker, V. 2000. Paleoflood hydrology and the estimation of extreme floods. In Wohl, E. (ed.), Inland Flood Hazards. Cambridge University Press, UK.

Balbus, J.M., and M.L. Wilson. 2000. Human Health and Global Climate Change. Report of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, Virginia. 43 pp.

Baldwin, M.P., and T.J. Dunkerton. 1999. Downward propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 104:30,937-30,946.

Balling, R.C., Jr. 1988. The climatic impact of Sonoran vegetation discontinuity. Climate Change 13:99-109.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Barber D.C., A. Dyke, C. Hillaire-Marcel, A.E. Jennings, J.T. Andrews, M.W. Kerwin, G. Bilodeau, R. McNeely, J. Southon, M.D. Morehead, and J.M. Gagnon. 1999. Forcing of the cold event of 8,200 years ago by catastrophic drainage of Laurentide lakes. Nature 400 (6742):344-348.

Bard, E., R. Rostek, and C. Sonzogni. 1997. Interhemispheric synchrony of the last deglaciation inferred from alkenone palaeothermometry . Nature 385:707-710.

Barnett, T.P., D.W. Pierce, and R. Schur. 2001. Detection of climate change in the world’s oceans. Science 292:270-274.

Barron, E.J. 1987. Eocene equator-to-pole surface temperatures: A significant climate problem. Paleoceanography 2:729-739.

Beaulieu, J.L., V. de Andrieu, P. Ponel, M. Reille, and J.J. Lowe. 1994. The Weichselian late-glacial in southwestern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Pyrenees, Massif Central, northern Apennines). Journal of Quaternary Science 9:101-107.

Behl, R.J., and J.P. Kennett. 1996. Brief interstadial events in the Santa Barbara basin, NE Pacific, during the past 60 kyr. Nature 379:243-246.

Belkin, I.M., S. Levitus, J. Antonov, and S.A. Malmberg. 1998. Great salinity anomalies in the North Atlantic. Progress in Oceanography 41:1-68.

Bender, M., T. Sowers, M.L. Dickson, J. Orchardo, P. Grootes, P.A. Mayewski, and D.A. Meese. 1994. Climate correlations between Greenland and Antarctica during the past 100,000 years. Nature 372:663-666.

Bender, M., B. Malaize, J. Orchardo, T. Sowers, and J. Jouzel, 1999. High precision correlations of Greenland and Antarctic ice core records over the last 100 kyr. Pp. 149-164 in P.U. Clark, R.S. Webb, and L.D. Keigwin (eds.), Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales. Geophysical Monograph 112. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Ben-Gai, T., A. Bitan, A. Manes, P. Alpert, and K. Israeli. 1998. Aircraft measurements of surface albedo in relation to climatic changes in southern Israel. Theoretical Applications in Climatology 61:207-215.

Benito, G., V.R. Baker, and K.J. Gregory. 1998. Palaeohydrology and Environmental Change. Wiley, New York. 353pp.

Berger, L., R. Speare, P. Daszak, D. E. Green, A.A. Cunningham, C.L. Goggin, R. Slocombe, M.A. Ragan, A.D. Hyatt, K.R. McDonald, H.B. Hines, K.R. Lips, G. Marantelli, and H. Parkes. 1998. Chytridiomycosis causes amphibian mortality associated with population declines in the rainforests of Australia and Central America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 95(15): 9031-9036.

Berner, J., and G. Branstator. 2001. Consequences of nonlinearities on the low-frequency behaviour of an AGCM. Proceeding of the 13th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, July 2001, Preprints, pp. 231-234.

Bice, K.L., and J. Marotzke. In press. Could changing ocean circulation have destabilized methane hydrate at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary? Paleooceanography.

Billings, W.D. 1987. Carbon balance of Alaskan tundra and taiga ecosystems: Past, present, and future. Quaternary Science Reviews 6:165-177.

Binford, M.W., A.L. Kolata, M. Brenner, J. Janusek, M.T. Seddon, M.B. Abbott, and J.H. Curtis. 1997. Climate variation and the rise and fall of an Andean civilization. Quaternary Research 47:235-248.

Birks, H.H., and B. Ammann. 2000. Two terrestrial records of rapid climatic change during the glacial-Holocene transition (14,000-9,000 calender years B.P) from Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97(4):1390-1394.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Biscaye, P.E., F.E. Grousset, M. Revel, S. Van der Gaast, G.A. Zielinski, A. Vaars, and G. Kukla. 1997. Asian provenance of glacial dust (stage 2) in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Ice Core, Summit, Greenland. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:26,765-26,781.

Bjorck, S., N. Noe-Nygaard, J. Wolin, M. Houmark-Nielsen, H.J. Hansen, and I. Snowball. 2000. Eemian lake development, hydrology and climate: A multi-stratigraphic study of the Hollerup site in Denmark. Quaternary Science Reviews 19(6):509-536.

Bjorck, S., S. Olsson, C. EllisEvans, H. Hakansson, O. Humlum, and J.M. deLirio. 1996. Late Holocene palaeoclimatic records from lake sediments on James Ross Island, Antarctica. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 121(3-4):195-220.

Black, D.E., L.C. Peterson, J.T. Overpeck, A. Kaplan, M. Evans, and M. Kashgarian. 1999. Eight centuries of North Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability. Science 286:1709-1713.

Blunier, T., and E.J. Brook. 2001. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period. Science 291:109-112.

Blunier, T., J. Chappellaz, J. Schwander, B. Stauffer, and D. Raynaud. 1995. Variations in atmospheric methane concentration during the Holocene epoch. Nature 374:46-49.

Boag, P.T. and P.R. Grant. 1984. Darwin finches (Geospiza) on Isla Daphne Major, Galapagos—breeding and feeding ecology in a climatically variable environment. Ecological Monographs 54(4):463-489.

Boettger, T., F.W. Junge, and T. Litt. 2000. Stable climatic conditions in central Germany during the last interglacial. Journal of Quaternary Science 15(5):469-473.

Bond, G., W. Broecker, S. Johnsen, J. McManus, L. Labeyrie, J. Jouzel, and G. Bonani. 1993. Correlations between climate records for North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice. Nature 365:143-147.

Bond, G., and R. Lotti. 1995. Iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic on millennial time scales during the last deglaciation. Science 267:1005-1010.

Bond, G., W. Showers, M. Chesby, R. Lotti, I. Hajdas, and G. Bonani. 1997. A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates. Science 278:1257-1266.

Bonnefille, R., G. Riollet, G. Buchet, M. Arnold, M. Icole, and R. Lafont. 1995. Glacial/ interglacial record from intertropical Africa: High resolution pollen and carbon data at Rusaka, Burundi. Quaternary Science Reviews 14(9):917-936

Borchert, J.R. 1950. The climate of the Central North American grasslands. Annual Association of American Geography 40:1-39.

Bouma, M.J., and C. Dye. 1997. Cycles of malaria associated with El Niño in Venezuela. Journal of the American Medical Association 278:1772.

Bounoua, L., G.J. Collatz, C.J. Tucker, P.J. Sellers, D.A. Randall, D.A. Dazlich, T.G. Jensen, S.O. Los, J.A. Berry, C.B. Field, and I. Fung. 1999. Interactions between vegetation and climate: Radiative and physiological effects of doubled CO2. Journal of Climate 12:309-324.

Boyle, E.A. 2000. Is ocean thermohaline circulation linked to abrupt stadial/interstadial transitions? Quaternary Science Reviews 19:255-272.

Boyle, E.A., and L.D. Keigwin. 1987. North Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the last 20,000 years linked to high latitude surface temperatures. Nature 330:35-40.

Braconnot, P., S. Joussaume, O. Marti, and N. de Noblet. 1999. Synergistic feedbacks from ocean and vegetation on the African monsoon response to mid-Holocene insolation. Geophysical Research Letters 26:2481-2484.

Bradley, R.S. 1999. Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary, 2nd edition. Academic Press, San Diego, CA. 613 pp.

Braudel, F. 1973. Capitalism and Material Life, 1400-1800. HarperCollins, New York, 18 pp.

Bravar, L., and M.L. Kavvas. 1991. On the physics of drought. I. A conceptual framework. Journal of Hydrology 129:281-297.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Brenner, M., D. Hodell, J. Curtis, M. Rosenmeier, M. Binford, and M. Abbott. 2001. Abrupt climate change and pre-Columbian cultural collapse. Pp. 87-101 in V. Markgraf (ed.), Interhemispheric Climate Linkages. Academic Press, New York.

Bretherton, C.S., and D.S. Battisti. 2000. An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution. Geophysical Research Letters 27:767-770.

Briffa, K.R., T.J. Osborn, F.H. Schweingruber, I.C. Harris, P.D. Jones, S.G. Shiyatov, and E.A. Vaganov. 2001. Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 106:2929-2941.

Broccoli, A.J., and S. Manabe. 1987. The influence of continental ice, atmospheric CO2, and land albedo on the climate of the last glacial maximum. Climate Dynamics 1:87-99.

Broecker, W.S., and T.-H.Peng. 1982. Tracers in the Sea. Eldigio Press, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY.

Broecker, W.S. 1987. Commentary: Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse? Nature 328: 123:126.

Broecker, W.S., M. Andree, W. Wolfli, H. Oeschger, G. Bonani, J. Kennett, and D. Peteet. 1988. The chronology of the last deglaciation: Implications to the cause of the Younger Dryas event. Paleoceanography 3:1-19.

Broecker, W.S. 1994. Massive iceberg discharges as triggers for global climate change. Nature 372:421-424.

Broecker, W.S. 1995. The Glacial World According to Wally, 2nd edition. Eldigio Press, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY.

Broecker, W.S. 1997. Thermohaline circulation, the Achilles heel of our climate system: Will man-made CO2 upset the current balance? Science 278:1582-1588.

Broecker, W.S. 1998. Paleocean circulation during the last deglaciation: A bipolar seesaw? Paleoceanography 13:119-121.

Broecker, W.S. 1999. Was a change in the thermohaline circulation responsible for the Little Ice Age? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97:1339-1342.

Broecker, W.S. 2001. Was the Medieval Warm Period global? Science 291:1497-1499.

Broecker, W.S., and G.H. Denton. 1989. The role of ocean-atmosphere reorganization in glacial cycles. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 53:2465-2501.

Broecker, W.S., D.M. Peteet, I. Hajdas, J. Lin, and E. Clark. 1998. Antiphasing between rainfall in Africa’s Rift Valley and North America’s Great Basin. Quaternary Research 50:12-20.

Broecker, W.S., D.M. Peteet, and D. Rind. 1985. Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one mode of operation? Nature 315:21-25.

Brook, E.J., T. Sowers, and J. Orchardo. 1996. Rapid variations in atmospheric methane concentration during the past 110,000 years. Science 273:1087-1093.

Brook, E.J., S. Harder, J. Severinghaus, and M. Bender. 1999. Atmospheric methane and millennial-scale climate change. Geophysical Monograph 112:165-176.

Brown, P., J.P. Kennett, and B.L. Ingram. 1999. Marine evidence for episodic Holocene megafloods in North America and the northern Gulf of Mexico. Paleoceanography 14(4):498-510.

Brown, L.R., C. Flavin, H. French, J.N. Abramowitz, C. Bright, S. Dunn, B. Halweil, G. Gardner, A. Mattoon, A. Platt McGinn, M. O’Meara, S. Postel, M. Renner, and L. Starke. 2000. State of the World 2000. W.W. Norton and Company, New York. 276 pp.

Brubaker, K., D. Entekhabi, and P. Eagleson. 1993. Estimation of continental precipitation recycling. Journal of Climate 6:1077-1089.

Bryan, F. 1986. High-latitude salinity effects and interhemispheric thermohaline circulations. Nature 323:301-304.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Bryan, F. 1987. On the parameter sensitivity of primitive equation ocean general circulation models. Journal of Physical Oceanography 17:970-985.

Bryant, N.A., L.F. Johnson, A.J. Brazel, R.C. Balling, C.F. Hutchinson, and L.R. Beck. 1990. Measuring the effect of over-grazing in the Sonoran Desert. Climate Change 17:243-264.

Bryden, H.L., D.H. Roemmich, and J.A. Church. 1991. Ocean heat transport across 24°N in the Pacific. Deep-Sea Research 38:297-324.

Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2001. http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm.

Burroughs, W.J. 1999. The Climate Revealed. Cambridge University Press, UK. 192 pp.

Bush, A.B.G. 1999. Assessing the impact of mid-Holocene insolation on the atmosphere-ocean system. Geophysical Research Letters 26(1):99-102.

Bush, M.B., D.R. Piperno, P.A. Colinvaux, P.E. De Oliveira, L.A. Krissek, M.C. Miller, and W.E. Rowe. 1992. A 14,300-year paleoecological profile of a lowland tropical lake in Panama. Ecological Monographs 62:251-275.


Caldeira, K., and J.F. Kasting. 1992. Susceptibility of the early Earth to irreversible glaciation caused by carbon dioxide clouds. Nature 359:226-228.

Carmack, E.C., R.W. Macdonald, R.G. Perkin, and F.A. McLaughlin. 1995. Evidence for warming of Atlantic water in the southern Canada Basin. Geophysical Research Letters 22:1061-1064.

Carrington, D.P., R.G. Gallimore, and J.E. Kutzbach. 2001. Climate sensitivity to wetlands and wetland vegetation in mid-Holocene North Africa. Climate Dynamics 17(2-3):151- 157.

Cavalieri D.J., P. Gloersen, C.L. Parkinson, J.C. Comiso, and H.J. Zwally. 2000. Observed hemispheric asymmetry in global sea ice changes. Science 278:1104-1106.

Chang, F.-C., and J.M. Wallace. 1987. Meteorological conditions during heat waves and droughts in the United States Great Plains. Monthly Weather Review 115:1253-1269.

Change, F.-C., and E.A. Smith. 2001. Hydrological and dynamical characteristics of summertime drought over U.S. Great Plains. Journal of Climate 14:2296-2316.

Chapin III, F.S., E.S. Zavaleta, V.T. Eviner, R.L. Naylor, P.M. Vitousek, H.L. Reynolds, D.U. Hooper, S. Lavorel, O.E. Sala, S.E. Hobbie, M. Mack, and S. Diaz. 2000. Consequences of changing biodiversity. Nature 405:234-240.

Chapman, W.L., and J.E. Walsh. 1993. Recent variations of sea-ice and air temperature in high latitudes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 74:33-47.

Chappellaz, J., T. Blunier, S. Kints, A. Dallenbach, J.M. Barnola, J. Schwander, D. Raynaud, and B. Stauffer. 1997. Changes in the atmospheric CH4 gradient between Greenland and Antarctica during the Holocene. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:15,987-15,997.

Chappellaz, J., E. Brook, T. Blunier, and B. Malaize. 1997. Ch4 and δ'8O of O2 records from Antarctic and Greenland ice: A clue for stratigraphic disturbance in the bottom part of the Greenland Ice Core Project and the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice cores. Journal of Geophysical Research. 102(C12):26,547-26,557.

Cheddadi, R., K. Mamakowa, J. Guiot, J.L. de Beaulieu, M. Reille, V. Andrieu, W. Granoszewski, and O. Peyron. 1998. Was the climate of the Eemian stable? A quantitative climate reconstruction from seven European pollen records. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 143(1-3):73-85.

Cheng, W. 2000. Climate variability in the North Atlantic: Interannual to multi-decadal time scales. Ph.D. Dissertation. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, FL.

Clark, D.B., Y. Xue, R.J. Harding, and P.J. Valdes. 2001. Modeling the impact of land surface degradation on the climate of tropical North Africa. Journal of Climate 14:1809-1822.

Claussen, M., C. Kubatzki, V. Brovkin, and A. Ganopolski. 1999. Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation in the mid-Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters 26:2037-2040.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Clement A.C., Seager R., Cane M.A., 1999. Orbital controls on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the tropical climate. Paleoceanography 14(4):441-456.

Clement, A.C., R. Seager, and M.A. Cane. 2000. Supression of El Niño during the mid-Holocene by changes in the Earth’s orbit. Paleoceanography 15:731-737.

Clement, A.C., M.A. Cane, and R. Seager. 2001. An orbitally driven tropical source for abrupt climate change. Journal of Climate 14:2369-2375.

Cole, J.E. 2001. A slow dance for El Niño. Science 291:1496-1497.

Cole, J.E., and E.R. Cook. 1998. The changing relationship between ENSO variability and moisture balance in the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters 25:4529-4532.

Cole, J.E., J.T. Overpeck, and E.R. Cook. Submitted. Multiyear La Niña events and persistent drought in the contiguous United States. Geophysical Research Letters.

Colwell, R.R. 1996. Global climate and infectious disease: The cholera paradigm. Science 274(5295):2025-2031.

Conway, H., B.L. Hall, G.H. Denton, A.M. Gades, and E.D. Waddington. 1999. Past and future grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 286:280-283.

Cook, E.R., and A.H. Johnson. 1989. Climate change and forest decline: A review of the red spruce case. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 48:127-140.

Corti, S., F. Molteni, and T.N. Palmer. 1999. Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. Nature 398:799-802.

Cortijo, E., L. Labeyrie, M. Elliot, E. Balbon, and N. Tisnerat. 2000. Rapid climate variability of the North Atlantic Ocean and global climate: A focus of the IMAGES program. Quaternary Science Reviews 19(1-5):227-241.

Crick, H.Q.P., C. Dudley, D. Glue, and D. Thomson. 1997. UK birds are laying eggs earlier. Nature 388:526.

Crick, H.Q.P., and T.H. Sparks. 1999. Climate change related to egg-laying trends. Nature 399:423.

Cronin T, D. Willard, A. Karlsen, S. Ishman, S. Verardo, J. McGeehin, R. Kerhin, C. Holmes, S. Colman, and A. Zimmerman. 2000. Climate variability in the eastern United States over the past millennium from Chesapeake Bay sediments. Geology 28:3-6.

Cronin, T.M. 1999. Principles of Paleoclimatology. Columbia University Press, New York.

Crowley, T.J. 1992. North Atlantic deep water cools the southern hemisphere. Paleoceanography 7:489-497.

Crowley, T.J. 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289:270-277.

Crowley, T.J., and T.S. Lowery, 2000. How warm was the medieval warm period? Ambio 29:51-54.

Cuffey, K.M., R.B. Alley, P.M. Grootes, J.F. Bolzan, and S. Anandakrishnan. 1994. Calibration of the δ'8O isotopic paleothermometer for central Greenland, using borehole temperatures. Journal of Glaciology 40:341-349.

Cuffey, K.M., G.D. Clow, R.B. Alley, M. Stuiver, E.D. Waddington, and R.W. Saltus. 1995. Large Arctic temperature change at the glacial-Holocene transition. Science 270:455-458.

Cuffey, K.M., and G.D. Clow. 1997. Temperature, accumulation, and ice sheet elevation in central Greenland through the last deglacial transition. Journal of Geophysical Research 102(26):383-396.

Cuffey, K.M. and S.J. Marshall. 2000. Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet. Nature 404(6778):591-594.

Cullen, H.M., P.B. deMenocal, S. Hemming, G. Hemming, F.H. Brown, T. Guilderson, and F. Sirocko. 2000. Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea. Geology 28:379-382.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Cwynar, L.C., and R.W. Spear. 2001. Late glacial climate change in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Quaternary Science Reviews 20(11):1265-1274.


Dai, A., K.E. Trenberth, and T.R. Karl. 1999. Effects of clouds, soil moisture, precipitation and water vapor on diurnal temperature range. Journal of Climate 12:2451-2473.

Dällenbach, A., T. Blunier, J. Flückiger, B. Stauffer, J. Chappellaz, and D. Raynaud. 2000. Changes in the atmospheric CH4 gradient between Greenland and Antarctica during the Last Glacial and the transition to the Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters 27:1005-1008.

Dansgaard, W., S.J. Johnsen, H.B. Clausen, D. Dahl-Jensen, N. Gundestrup, C.U. Hammer, and H. Oeschger. 1984. North Atlantic climatic oscillations revealed by deep Greenland ice cores. Pp. 288-298 in J. Hansen and T. Takahashi (eds.), Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Daszak, P. 2001. University of Georgia. Personal communication. Social Impacts workshop.

Daszak, P., A.A. Cunningham, and A.D. Hyatt. 2001. Anthropogenic environmental change and the emergence of infectious diseases in wildlife. Acta Tropica 78(2):103-116.

Daszak, P., A.A. Cunningham, and A.D. Hyatt. 2000. Conservation conundrum - Response. Science 288:2320-2320.

Davis, M.B. 1983. Holocene vegetational history of the eastern United States. Pp. 166-181 in H.E. Wright, Jr. (ed.), Late Quaternary Environments of the United States, vol. 2. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.

de la Mare, W.K. 1997. Abrupt mid-twentieth-century decline in Antarctic sea-ice extent from whaling records. Nature 389:57-60.

De Vries, J. 1976. The Economy of Europe in an Age of Crisis. Cambridge University Press, UK.

De Vries, J. 1981. Measuring the impact of climate on history: The search for appropriate methodologies. In R.I. Rotberg and T.K. Rabb (eds.), Climate and History: Studies in Interdisciplinary History. Princeton University Press, New Jersey.

Delworth T., and T.R. Knutson. 2000. Simulation of early 20th century global warming. Science 287:2246-2250.

Delworth T., and S. Manabe. 1989. The influence of soil wetness on near-surface atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate 2(12):1447-1462.

Delworth T., and M.E. Mann. 2000. Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics 16(9):661-676.

deMenocal, P., J. Ortiz, T. Guilderson, J. Adkins, M. Sarnthein, L. Baker, and M. Yarusinsky. 2000a. Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period: Rapid climate responses to gradual insolation forcing. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:347-361.

deMenocal, P., J. Ortiz, T. Guilderson, and M. Sarnthein. 2000b. Coherent high and low-latitude climate variability during the Holocene warm period. Science 288:2198-2202.

Denton, G.H., and C.H. Hendy. 1994. Documentation of an advance of New Zealand’s Franz Joseph Glacier at the onset of Younger Dryas time. Science 264:1434-1437.

Denton, G.H., C.J. Heusser, T.V. Lowell, P.I. Moreno, B.G. Anderson, L.E. Heusser, C. Schluchter, and D.R. Marchant. 1999. Interhemispheric linkage of paleoclimate during the last deglaciation. Geografiska Annaler 81(2):107-153.

Diaz, H.F. 1983. Drought in the United States—Some aspects of major dry and wet periods in the contiguous United States, 1895-1981. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 22:3-16.

Diaz, H.F., and V. Markgraf. 2000. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global Impacts. Cambridge University Press, UK. 496 pp.

Dickens, G.R. 1999. Carbon cycle: The blast in the past. Nature 401:752-755.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Dickens, G.R., J.R. O’Neil, D.K. Rea, and R.M. Owen. 1995. Dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate as a cause of the carbon-isotope excursion at the end of the Paleocene. Paleoceanography 10:965-971.

Dickson, R.R. 1999. All change in the Arctic. Nature 397:389-391.

Dickson, R.R. 2001. Centre for Environment, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Science, UK. Personal communication.

Dickson, R.R., J. Meincke, S.A. Malmberg, and A.J. Lee. 1988. The “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the northern North Atlantic 1968-1982. Progress in Oceanography 20:103-151.

Dickson, R.R., J. Lazier, J. Meincke, P. Rhines, and J. Swift. 1996. Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. Progress in Oceanography 38: 241-295.

Dickson, R.R., T.J. Osborn, J.W. Hurrell, J. Meincke, J. Blindheim, B. Adlandsvik, T. Vinje, G. Alekseev, and W. Maslowski. 2000. The Arctic Ocean response to the North Atlantic oscillation. Journal of Climate 13:2671-2696.

Dirmeyer, P.A. 1994. Vegetation stress as a feedback mechanism in midlatitude drought. Journal of Climate 7:1463-1483.

Dirmeyer, P.A., and J. Shukla. 1996. The effect on regional and global expansion of the world’s deserts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 122:451-482.

Dixon, K.W., T.L. Delworth, M.J. Spelman, and R.J. Stouffer. 1999. The influence of transient surface fluxes on North Atlantic overturning in a coupled GCM climate change experiment. Geophysical Research Letters 26:2749-2752.

Doney, S.C., and W.J. Jenkins. 1994. Ventilation of the Deep Western Boundary Current and Abyssal Western North Atlantic: Estimates from tritium and He distributions. Journal of Physical Oceanography 24:638-659.

Donnelly, J.P., S.S. Bryant, J. Butler, J. Dowling, L. Fan, N. Hausmann, P. Newby, B. Shuman, J. Stern, K. Westover, and T. Webb. 2001a. Seven hundred year sedimentary record of intense hurricane landfalls in southern New England. Geological Society of America Bulletin 113:714-727.

Donnelly, J.P., S. Roll, M. Wengren, J. Butler, R. Lederer, and T. Webb. 2001b. Sedimentary evidence of intense hurricane strikes from New Jersey. Geology 29:615-618.

Döscher, R., C.W. Boening, and P. Herrmann. 1994. Response of circulation and heat transport in the North Atlantic to changes in thermohaline forcing in northern latitudes: A model study. Journal of Physical Oceanography 24:2303-2320.

Dunn, P.O., and D.W. Winkler. 1999. Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America. Proceedings of the Royal Society 266:2487-2490.

Duplessy, J.C., L. Labeyrie, M. Arnold, M. Paterne, J. Duprat, and T.C.E. Vanweering. 1992. Changes in surface salinity of the North Atlantic Ocean during the last deglaciation. Nature 358:485-488.

Durkee, P.A., K.J. Noone, and R.T. Bluth. 2000. The Monterey area ship track experiment. Journal of Atmospheric Science 57:2523-2541.

Durre, I.M. 2001. Research Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center, Asheville, NC. Personal communication.

Dymnikov, V.P., and A.S. Gritsoun. 2001. Climate model attractor: Chaos, quasi-regularity and sensitivity to small perturbations of external forcing. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 8:201-209.

Dyurgerov, M.B., and M.F. Meier. 2000. Twentieth century climate change: Evidence from small glaciers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97(4):1406-1411.


Easterling, D.R., G.A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S.A. Changnon, T.R. Karl, and L.O. Mearns. 2000. Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289:2068-2074.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Ebbesmeier, C.C., D.R. Cayan, D.R. Milan, F.H. Nichols, D.H. Peterson, and K.T. Redmond. 1991. 1976 step in the Pacific climate: Forty environmental changes between 1968-1975 and 1977-1984. In J.L. Betancourt and V.L. Tharp (eds.), Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Pacific Climate Workshop, April 1990. California Department of Water Resources, Interagency Ecological Studies Program, Technical Report 26.

Ekwurzel, B., P. Schlosser, R.A. Mortlock, R.G. Fairbanks, and J.H. Swift. 2001. River runoff, sea ice meltwater, and Pacific water distribution and mean residence times in the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research 106(C5):9075-9092.

Eltahir, E.A.B., and R.L. Bras. 1996. Precipitation recycling. Review of Geophysics 34: 367-378.

Ely, L. 1997. Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climatic variations in the late Holocene. Geomorphology 19:175-201.

Ely, L., Y. Enzel, V.R. Baker, and D.R. Cayan. 1993. A 5000-year record of extreme floods and climate change in the southwestern United States. Science 262:410-412.

Entekhabi, D., I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, and R.L. Bras. 1992. Variability in large-scale water balance with land surface-atmosphere interaction. Journal of Climate 5:798-814.

Enzel, Y., L. Ely, P. House, and V. Baker. 1996. Magnitude and frequency of Holocene palaeofloods in the southwestern United States: A review and discussion of implications.


In Branson, J., A. Brown, and K. Gregory (eds.), Global Continental Changes: The Context of Palaeohydrology, Vol. 115. Geological Society Special Publication, London.

Enzel, Y., L. Ely, S. Mishra, R. Ramesh, R. Amit, B. Lazar, S.N. Rajaguru, V.R. Baker, and A. Sandler. 1999. High-resolution Holocene environmental changes in the Thar Desert, northwestern India. Science 284:125-128.

Epstein, P.R. 1998. Global warming and vector-borne disease. Lancet 351:1737.

Fahnestock, M., R. Bindschadler, R. Kwok, and K. Jezek. 1993. Greenland ice sheet surface properties and ice dynamics form ERS-1 SAR imagery. Science 262:1530-1534.

Fanning, A.F., and A.J. Weaver. 1997. Temporal-geographical influences on the North Atlantic conveyor: Implications for the Younger Dryas. Paleoceanography 12:307-320.

Fawcett, P.J., A.M. Águstsdóttir, R.B. Alley, and C.A. Shuman. 1997. The Younger Dryas termination and North Atlantic deep water formation: Insights from climate model simulations and Greenland ice cores. Paleoceanography 12(1):23-38.

Federov, A.V., and S.G. Philander. 2000. Is El Niño changing? Science 288:1997-2001.

Fennessy, M.J. and J. Shukla. 1999. Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal atmospheric prediction. Journal of Climate 12:3167-3180.

Findell, K.L., and E.A.B. Eltahir. 1999. Analysis of the pathways relating soil moisture and subsequent rainfall in Illinois. Journal of Geophysical Research 104:31,165-31,174.

Fisher, D.A., R.M. Koerner, and N. Reeh. 1995. Holocene climate records frm Agassiz Ice Cap, Ellesmere Island, NNT, Canada. Holocene 5:19-24.

Forman, S.L., R. Oglesby, V. Markgraf, and T. Stafford. 1995. Paleoclimatic significance of late Quaternary eolian deposition on the Piedmont and High-Plains, Central United-States. Global and Planetary Change 11:35-55.

Forman, S.L., R. Oglesby, and R.S. Webb. 2001. Temporal and spatial patterns of Holocene dune activity on the Great Plains of North America: megadroughts and climate links. Global and Planetary Change 29(1-2):1-29.

Francis, R.C., and S.R. Hare. 1994. Decadal-scale regime shifts in the large marine ecosystems of the northeast Pacific: A case for historical science. Fisheries Oceanography 3:279-291.

Fritz, S.C., S.E. Metcalfe, and W. Dean. 2000. Holocene climate patterns in the Americas inferred from paleolimnological records. Pp. 241-259 in V. Markgraf (ed.), Interhemispheric Climate Linkages. Academic Press, New York.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Fronval, T., E. Jansen, H. Haflidason, and H.P. Sejrup. 1998. Variability in surface and deep water conditions in the Nordic Seas during the last interglacial period. Quaternary Science Reviews 17(9-10):963-985.

Funder S., and A. Weidick. 1991. Holocene Boreal Mollusks In Greenland - Palaeoceanographic Implications. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimate 85 (1-2): 123-135

Fyfe, J.C., G.J. Boer, and G.M. Flato. 1999. The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 26:1601-1604.


Gammelsrød T., S. Østerhus, and Ø. Godøy. 1992. Decadal variations of ocean climate in the Norwegian Sea observed at Ocean Station “Mike” (65°N 2°E). ICES Marine Symposium 195:68-75.

Ganachaud, A., and C. Wunsch. 2000. Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data. Nature 408:453-457.

Ganopolski, A., C. Kubatzki, M. Claussen, V. Brovkin, and V. Petoukhov. 1998. The influence of vegetation-atmosphere-ocean interaction on climate during the mid-Holocene. Science 280:1916-1919.

Ganopolski, A., and S. Rahmstorf. 2001. Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model. Nature 409:153-158.

Gardner, B.R., B.L. Blad, and D.G. Watts. 1981. Plant and air temperatures in differentially irrigated corn. Agricultural Meteorology 25:207-217.

Gasse, F. 2000. Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:189-211.

Gasse, F., and E. van Campo. 1994. Abrupt post-glacial climate events in West Asia and North Africa monsoon domains. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 126:435-456.

Gent, P.R. 2001. Will the North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circualtion weaken during the 21st century? Geophysical Research Letters 28:1023-1026.

Georgakakos, K.P., D.-H. Bae, and D.R. Cayan. 1995. Hydroclimatology of continental watersheds. I. Temporal analysis. Water Resources Research 31:655-675.

Gill, R.B. 2000. The Great Maya Droughts: Water, Life and Death. University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque.

Glantz, M. 1999. Creeping Environmental Problems and Sustainable Development in the Aral Sea Basin . Cambridge University Press, UK.

Gleick, P.H. 2000. The World’s Water 2000-2001. Island Press, Washington, D.C. 315 pp.

Gnanadesikan, A. 1999. A simple predictive model for the structure of the oceanic pycnocline. Science 283:2077-2079.

Goñi, M.F.S., F. Eynaud, J.L. Turon, and N.J. Shackleton. 1999. High resolution palynological record off the Iberian margin: Direct land-sea correlation for the Last Interglacial complex. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 171(1):123-137.

Gordon, A.L. 1986. Interocean exchange of thermocline water. Journal of Geophysical Research 91:5037-5046.

Gordon, A.L., and J. C. Comiso. 1988. Polynyas in the Southern Ocean. Scientific American 256(6):90-97.

Gorham, E. 1991. Northern peatlands: Role in the carbon cycle and probable responses to climatic warming. Ecological Applications 1:182-195.

Gornitz V., C. Rosenzweig, and D. Hillel. 1997. Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrologic cycle on global sea level rise. Global and Planetary Change 14:147-161.

Gosse, J.C., J. Klein, E.B. Evenson, B. Lawn, and R. Middleton. 1995. Beryllium-10 dating of the duration and retreat of the last Pinedale glacial sequence. Science 268:1329-1333.

Graham, N.E. 1994. Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dynamics 10:135-162.

Gregory, K.J., L. Starkel, and V.R. Baker. 1995. Global Continental Palaeohydrology. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., New York. 334 pp.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Grootes, P.M., and M. Stuiver. 1997. Oxygen 18/16 variability in Greenland snow and ice with 10–3- to 105-year time resolution. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:26,455-26,470.

Grousset, F.E., L. Labeyrie, J.A. Sinko, M. Cremer, G. Bond, J. Duprat, E. Cortijo, and S. Huon. 1993. Patterns of ice-rafted detritus in the glacial North Atlantic (40-55°N). Paleoceanography 8:175-192.

Guay, C.K.H., K.K. Falkner, R.D. Muench, M. Mensch, M. Frank, and R. Bayer. 2001. Wind-driven transport pathways for Eurasian Arctic river discharge. Journal of Geophysical Research 106(2):11,469-11,480.

Guilderson T.P., and D.P. Schrag. 1998. Abrupt shift in subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific associated with changes in El Niño. Science 281(5374):240-243.

Gwiazda, R.H., S.R. Hemming, and W.S. Broecker. 1996a. Provenance of icebergs during Heinrich event 3 and the contrast to their sources during other Heinrich episodes. Paleoceanography 11:371-78.

Gwiazda, R.H., S.R. Hemming, W.S. Broecker, T. Onsttot, and C. Mueller. 1996b. Evidence from 40Ar/39Ar ages for a Churchill province source of ice-rafted amphiboles in Heinrich layer 2. Journal of Glaciology 42:440-46.


Häkkinen, S. 1993. An Arctic source for the Great Salinity Anomaly: A simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system for 1955-1975. Journal of Geophysical Research 98:16,397-16,410.

Häkkinen, S. 1999. Variability of the simulated meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic for the period 1951-1993. Journal of Geophysical Research 104:10,991-11,007.

Häkkinen, S. Submitted. Variability in sea-surface height: A qualitative measure for the meridional overturning in the North Atlantic. Journal of Geophysical Research.

Hall, A., and R.J. Stouffer. 2001. An abrupt climate event in a coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation without external forcing. Nature 409:171-174.

Hansen, A.R., and A. Sutera. 1995. The probability density distribution of the planetary-scale atmospheric wave amplitude revisited. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 52:2463-2472.

Hansen, A.J., R.R. Neilson, V.H. Dale, C.H. Flather, L.R. Iverson, D.J. Currie, S. Shafer, R. Cook, and P.J. Bartlein. 2001a. Global change in forests: Responses of species, communities, and biomes. Bioscience 51(9):765-779.

Hansen, B., W.R. Turrell, and S. Osterhus. 2001b. Decreasing overflow from the Nordic seas into the Atlantic Ocean through the Faroe Bank channel since 1950. Nature 411:927-930.

Harland, W.B. 1964. Critical evidence for a great infra-Cambrian glaciation. Geologische Rundschau 54:45-61.

Hawkins, B.A., and M. Holyoak. 1998. Transcontinental crashes of insect populations? American Naturalist 152:480-484.

Hegerl, G.C., P.A. Stott, M.R. Allen, J.F.B. Mitchell, S.F.B. Tett, and U. Cubasch. 2000. Optimal detection and attribution of climate change: Sensitivity of results to climate model differences. Climate Dynamics 16:737-754.

Heinrich H. 1988. Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130,000 years. Quaternary Research 29:143-152.

Held, I.M., and B.J. Soden. 2000. Water vapor feedback and global warming. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 25:441-475.

Henderson-Sellers, A., K. McGuffie, and C. Gross. 1995. Sensitivity of global climate model simulations to increased stomatal resistance and CO2 increases. Journal of Climate 8:1735-1756.

Hepting, G.H. 1963. Climate and forest disease. Annual Review of Phytopathology 1:31-50.

Herman, S.W. 2000. Fixed assets and consumer durable goods. Survey of Current Business. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C. 17 pp.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Heusser, C.J. l990. Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation and climate of sub-Antarctic South-America. Review of Paleobotany and Palynology 65(1-4):9-15.

Hillaire-Marcel, C., A. deVernal, G. Bilodeau, and A.J. Weaver. 2001. Absence of deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea during the last interglacial period. Nature 410:1073-1077.

Hodell, D.A., J.H. Curtis, and M. Brenner. 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature 375:391-394.

Hodell, D.A., M. Brenner, J.H. Curtis, and T. Guilderson. 2001. Solar forcing of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands. Science 292:1367-1370.

Hoerling, M.P., J.W. Hurrell, and T. Xu. 2001. Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change. Science 292:90-92.

Hoffman, P.F., A.J. Kaufman, G.P. Halverson, and D.P. Schrag. 1998. A Neoproterozoic snowball Earth. Science 281:1342-1346.

Hooghiemstra, H., A.M. Cleef, G.W. Noldus, and M. Kappell. 1992. Upper Quaternary vegetation dynamics and paleoclimatology of the La Chonta bog area (Cordillera de Talamanca, Costa Rica). Journal of Quaternary Science 7:205-225.

Hostetler, S.W., P.U. Clark, P.J. Bartlein, A.C. Mix, and N.J. Pisias. 1999. Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 104(D4):3947-3952.

Hou A.Y., and R.S. Lindzen. 1992. The influence of concentrated heating on the Hadley circulation. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 49(14):1233-1241.

Huang, J., and H.M. Van den Dool. 1993. Monthly precipitation-temperature relations and temperature predictions over the United States. Journal of Climate 6:1111-1132.

Huang, J., H.M. Van den Dool, and K.P. Georgakakos. 1996. Analysis of model-calculated soil moisture over the United States (1931-1993) and applications to long-range temperature forecasts. Journal of Climate 9:1350-1362.

Huang, S., H. Pollack, and P.Y. Shen. 2000. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403:756-758.

Hughen, K.A., J.T. Overpeck, L.C. Peterson, and S. Trumbore. 1996. Rapid climate changes in the tropical Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Nature 380:51-54.

Hughen, K.A., D.P. Schrag, S.B. Jacobsen, and W. Hantoro. 1999. El Niño during the last interglacial period recorded by a fossil coral from Indonesia. Geophysical Research Letters 26(20):3129-3132.

Hughen, K.A., J.T. Overpeck, and R.F. Anderson. 2000a. Recent warming in a 500-year palaeotemperature record from varved sediments, Upper Soper Lake, Baffin Island, Canada. The Holocene 10:9-19.

Hughen, K.A., J.R. Southon, S.J. Lehman, and J.T. Overpeck. 2000b. Synchronous radiocarbon and climate shifts during deglaciation. Science 290:1951-1954.

Hughen, K.A., J.T. Overpeck, S.J. Lehman, M. Kashgarian, J. Southon, L.C. Peterson, R. Alley and D.M. Sigman. 1998. Deglacial changes in ocean circulation from an extended radiocarbon calibration. Nature 391:65-68.

Hulbe, C.L., and A.J. Payne. 2001. The contribution of numerical modelling to our understanding of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Pp. 201-219 in The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Behavior and Environment, Antarctic Research Series 77. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C .

Hurrell, J.W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676-679.

Hyde, W.T., T.J. Crowley, S.K. Baum, and W.R. Peltier. 2000. Neoproterozoic ‘snowball Earth’ simulations with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model. Nature 405(6785):425-429.


Inouye, D.W., and A.D. McGuire. 1991. Effects of snowpack on timing and abundance of flowering in Delphinium nelsonii (Ranunculaceae): Implications for climatic change . American Journal of Botany 78:997-1001.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Inouye, D.W. 2000. The ecological and evolutionary significance of frost in the context of climate change. Ecology Letters 3(5):457-463.

Inouye, D.W., B. Barr, K.B. Armitage, and B.D. Inouye. 2000. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97:1630-1633.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001a. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerability. Report of Working Group II. Available online at: http://www.usgcrp.gov/ipcc/default.html [2001, October 25].

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001b. Climate Change 2001: The Science of Climate Change, J.T. Houghton (ed.). Cambridge University Press, UK.

International Red River Basin Task Force. 2000. The Next Flood: Getting Prepared, Final Report of the International Red River Basin Task Force to the International Joint Commission, April 2000, International Joint Commission. Available online at: http://www.ijc.org/boards/rrbtf.html

Iversen, J. 1954. The late-glacial flora of Denmark and its relation to climate and soil. Damn. Geol. Unders. Ser. II 80:87-119.


Jacka, T.H., and W.F. Budd. 1998. Detection of temperature and sea-ice-extent changes in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean, 1949-96. Annals of Glaciology 27:553-559.

Jansen, K. 1938. Some west Baltic pollen diagrams. Quartar 1:124-139.

Jennings, A.E., and N.J. Weiner. 1996. Environmental change in eastern Greenland during the last 1300 years: Evidence from foraminifera and lithofacies in Nansen Fjord, 68°N. Holocene 6:179-191.

Jennings, A.E., K.L. Knudsen, M. Hald, C.V. Hansen, and J.T. Andrews. In press. A mid-Holocene shift in Arctic sea ice variability on the East Greenland Shelf. The Holocene.

Johannessen, O.M., E.V. Shalina, and M.W. Miles. 1999. Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea ice cover in transformation. Science 286:1937-1939.

Johnsen, S.J., H.B. Clausen, W. Dansgaard, N.S. Gundestrup, C.U. Hammer, U. Andersen, K.K. Andersen, C.S. Hvidberg, D. Dahl-Jensen, J.P. Steffensen, H. Shoji, A.E. Sveinbjornsdottir, J. White, J. Jouzel, and D. Fisher. 1997. The dO-18 record along the Greenland Ice Core Project deep ice core and the problem of possible Eemian climatic instability . Journal of Geophysical Research 102(26):397-410.

Johnsen, S.J., D. Dahl-Jensen, W. Dansgaard, and N. Gundestrup. 1995. Greenland paleotemperatures derived from GRIP bore hole temperature and ice core isotope profiles. Tellus 47B:624-629.

Johnson, G.C., and A.H. Orsi. 1997. Southwest Pacific Ocean water-mass changes between 1968/69 and 1990/91. Journal of Climate 10:306-316.

Jones, P.D., and R.S. Bradley. 1992. Climatic variations over the last 500 years. Pp. 649-665 in R.S. Bradley and P.D. Jones (eds.), Climate Since A.D. 150. Routledge, London.

Jones, C.G., R.S. Ostfeld, M.P. Richard, E.M. Schauger, and J.O. Wolff. 1998. Chain reactions linking acorns to gypsy moth outbreaks and Lyme disease risk. Science 279:1023-1026.


Karl, T. 1983. Some spatial characteristics of drought in the United States. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 22:1356-1366.

Karl, T. 1986. Relationships Between Some Moisture Parameters and Subsequent Seasonal and Monthly Mean Temperature in the United States. Programme on Long-Range Forecasting Res. Rep. Ser., No. 6, WMO/TDD-No. 87, 2, 661-670. [Available from WMO; Office for Information and Public Affairs; 41, Avenue Giuseppe-Motta; 1211 Geneva 2 / Switzerland; PubSales@gateway.wmo.ch.]

Karl, T., and R.G. Quayle. 1981. The 1980 summer heat wave and droughts in historical perspective. Monthly Weather Review 109:2055-2073.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Kates, R.W., B.L. Turner II, and W.C. Clark. 1990. The great transformation. Pp. 1-17 in B.L. Turner II, W.C. Clark, R.W. Kates, J.F. Richards, J.T. Mathews, and W.B. Meyer (eds.), The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Cambridge University Press, New York.

Kawase, M. 1987. Establishment of deep ocean circulation driven by deep water production. Journal of Physical Oceanography 17:2294-2317.

Keigwin, L.D. 1996. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea. Science 274:1504-1508.

Keigwin, L.D., and G.A. Jones. 1990. Deglacial climatic oscillations in the Gulf of California. Paleoceanography 5:1009-1023.

Keller, K. 2000. Trace Metal-Carbon Interactions in Marine Phytoplankton: Implications on the Cellular, Regional, and Global Scale. Ph.D. thesis, Princeton University. Also available online at: http:\\geoweb.princeton.edu\bigscience\GLODAP\details.html\#Redfield [April 25, 2001].

Keller, K., K. Tan, F.M.M. Morel, and D.F. Bradford. 2000. Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy. Climatic Change 47(1-2):17-43.

Keller, K., B.M. Bolker, and D.F. Bradford. 2001. Uncertain Climate Thresholds in Economic Optimal Growth Models. Yale/NBER Workshop on the Societal Impact of Abrupt Climate Change, Snowmass, Colorado, July 24-25.

Kelley, P.M., C.S. Goodess, and B.S.G. Cherry. 1987. The interpretation of the Icelandic sea ice record. Journal of Geophysical Research 92:10,835-10,843.

Kelley, P.M., P.D. Jones, C.B. Sear, B.S.G. Cherry, and R.K. Tavakol. 1982. Variations in surface air temperature: Part 2, Arctic regions. Monthly Weather Review 110:71-83.

Kennett, J.P., and L.D. Stott. 1991. Abrupt deep-sea warming, palaeoceanographic changes and benthic extinctions at the end of the Paleocene. Nature 353:225-229.

Kennett, J.P., and B.L. Ingram. 1995. A 20,000-year record of ocean circulation and climate change from the Santa Barbara basin. Nature 377:510-513.

Kennett J.P., K.G. Cannariato, I.L. Hendy, and R.J. Behl. 2000. Carbon isotopic evidence for methane hydrate instability during Quaternary interstadials. Science 288(5463):128-133.

Kirschvink, J.L. 1992. Late Proterozoic low-latitude global glaciation: The Snowball Earth. Pp. 51-52 in J.W. Schopf and C. Klein (eds.), The Proterozoic Biosphere. Cambridge University Press, New York.

Kitzberger, T., T.W. Swetnam, and T.T. Veblen. 2001. Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10(3):315-326.

Kling, G.W. 2001. The Response of Freshwater Ecosystems to Abrupt Climate Change. Summary notes from the Abrupt Climate Change Meeting, National Academy of Sciences, March 21-23, 2001, Washington, D.C.

Klinger, B.A., and J. Marotzke. 1999. Behavior of double-hemisphere thermohaline flows in a single basin. Journal of Physical Oceanography 29:382-400.

Kneller, M.D., and D.M. Peteet. 1999. Late-glacial to early Holocene climate changes from a central Appalachian pollen and macrofossil record. Quaternary Research 51:133-147.

Knox, J.C. 1999. Long-term episodic changes in magnitudes and frequencies of floods in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. In A.G. Brown, and T.A. Quine (eds.), Fluvial Processes and Environmental Change. John Wiley and Sons, Ltd., London.

Knox, J.C. 2000. Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:439-457.

Knutti, R., and T.F. Stocker. 2000. Influence of the thermohaline circulation on projected sea level rise. Journal of Climate 13:1997-2001.

Knutti, R., and T.F. Stocker. 2001. Limited predictability of the thermohaline circulation close to a threshold. Journal of Climate 15:179-186.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Koenig, W.D., and J.M.H. Knops. 2000. Patterns of annual seed production by Northern Hemisphere trees: a global perspective. The American Naturalist 155:59-69.

Koster, R.D., and M.J. Suarez. 1996. The influence of land surface moisture retention on precipitation statistics. Journal of Climate 9:2551-2567.

Kotilainen, A.T., and N.J. Shackleton. 1995. Rapid climate variabilitly in the North Pacific Ocean during the past 95,000 years. Nature 377:323-326.

Koutavas, A., and J. Lynch-Steiglitz. 1999. A Younger Dryas Temperature Reversal in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Krabill, W., W. Abdalati, E. Frederick, S. Manizade, C. Martin, J. Sonntag, R. Swift, R. Thomas, W. Wright, and J. Yungel. 2000. Greenland ice sheet: High-elevation balance and peripheral thinning. Science 289:428-430.

Kudo, G., U. Nordenhall, and U. Molau. 1999. Effects of snowmelt timing on leaf traits, leaf production, and shoot growth of alpine plants: Comparisons along a snowmelt gradient in northern Sweden. Ecoscience 6:439-450.

Kutzbach, J.E., and Z. Liu. 1997. Response of the African monsoon to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks in the middle Holocene. Science 278:440-443.

Kutzbach, J., G. Bonan, J. Foley, and S. Harrison. 1996. Vegetation and soil feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon to orbital forcing in the early to middle Holocene. Nature 384:623-626.

Kwok, R. G.F. Cunningham, and S. Yueh. 1999. Area balance of the Arctic Ocean perennial ice zone: October 1996 to April 1997. Journal of Geophysical Research 104(C11):25,747-25,759.


Laird, K.R., S.C. Fritz, K.A. Maasch, and B.F. Cumming. 1996. Greater drought intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the Northern Great Plains, USA. Nature 384:552-555.

Lamb, H.F., F. Gasse, A. Benkaddour, N. El Hamouti, S. van der Kaars, W.T. Perkins, N.J. Pearce, and C.N. Roberts. 1995. Relation between century-scale Holocene arid intervals in tropical and temperate zones. Nature 373:134-137.

Lang, C., M. Leuenberger, J. Schwander, and S. Johnsen. 1999. 16 degrees C rapid temperature variation in Central Greenland 70,000 years ago. Science 286(5441):934-937.

Lare, A.R. and S.E. Nicholson. 1994. Contrasting conditions of land surface atmosphere feedback mechanism in the West African Sahel. Journal of Climate 7:653-668.

Latif, M., and T.P. Barnett. 1996. Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and predictability. Journal of Climate 9:2407-2423.

Latif, M., E. Roeckner, U. Mikolajewicz, and R. Voss. 2000. Tropical stabilization of the thermohaline circulation in a greenhouse warming simulation. Journal of Climate 13:1809-1813.

Lawton, J. H., and R.M. May (eds.). 1995. Extinction Rates. Oxford University Press, UK.

Lazier, J.R.N. 1995. The salinity decrease in the Labrador Sea over the past 30 years. Pp. 295-304 in D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.), Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

Lee, A. 1949. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer. 125:43-52.

Lee, K.E., N.C. Slowey, T.D. Herbert. 2001. Glacial sea surface temperatures in the subtropical North Pacific: A comparison of U-k(37)’, δ’8O, and foraminiferal assemblage temperature estimates. Paleoceanography 16(3):268-279.

Lee, T., and J. Marotzke. 1997. Inferring meridional mass and heat transports of the Indian Ocean by fitting a general circulation model to climatological data. Journal of Geophysical Research 102(10):585-602.

Lehman, S.J., and L.D. Keigwin. 1992. Sudden changes in the North Atlantic circulation during the last deglaciation. Nature 356:757-762.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Leopold, C. 2001. Biological Response to Abrupt Climate Change. Summary notes from the Abrupt Climate Change meeting, National Academy of Sciences, March 21-23, 2001, Washington, D.C.

Levitus, S., J.I. Antonov, J. Wang, T.L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, and A.J. Broccoli. 2001. Anthropogenic warming of Earth’s climate system. Science 292:267-270.

Levitus, S., J.I. Antonov, T.P. Boyer, and C. Stevens. 1999. Warming of the world ocean. Science 287:2226-2229.

Levitus S. 2001. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Personal communication. Social Impacts Workshop.

Leyden, B.W. 1995. Evidence of the Younger Dryas in Central America. Quaternary Science Reviews 14(9):833-840.

Leyden, B.W., M. Brenner, D.A. Hodell, and J.H. Curtis. 1994. Orbital and internal forcing of climate on the Yucatan Peninsula for the past 36kyr. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 109:193-210.

Lindzen, R.S., and A.Y. Hou. 1988. Hadley circulations for zonally averaged heating centered off the equator. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 45:2416-2427.

Lilly, J.M., P.B. Rhines, M. Visbeck, R. Davis, J.R.N. Lazier, F. Schott, and D. Farmer. 1999. Observing deep convection in the Labrador sea during winter 1994/95. Journal of Physical Oceanography 29(8):2065-2098.

Linthicum K.J., A. Anyamba, C.J. Tucker, P.W. Kelley, M.F. Myers, and C.J. Peters. 1999. Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya. Science 285:397-400.

Liu, K.B., and M.L. Fearn. 2000. Reconstruction of prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes in northwestern Florida from lake sediment records. Quaternary Research 54:238-245.

Lorenz, E.N. 1963. Deterministic non-periodic flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20:130-141.

Lorenz, E.N. 1990. Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability? Tellus 42(A):378-389.

Lowe, J.J., and C. Watson. 1993. Late glacial and early Holocene pollen stratigraphy of the northern Apennines, Italy. Quaternary Science Reviews 12:727-738.

Lowe, J.J., T. Alm, B. Ammann, S. Anderson, T. Anderson, J.T. Andrews, W.E.N. Austin, J.L. Debeaulieu, B. Becker, K.E. Behre, B.E. Berglund, H. Bersten, H.J. Beug, H.H. Birks, S. Bjorck, S. Bohncke, A. Brande, L. Brunnberg, G.R. Coope, P. Coxon, L. Cwynar, L. Denys, J.J. Donner, R.A. Dugmore, J.C. Duplessy, H. Faure, M.J. Gaillard, I. Hajdas, D.D. Harkness, A. Hjartarson, W. Hoek, B. Huntley, O. Ingolfsson, G. Jacobsen, E. Jansen, E. Kolstrup, P. Kiden, N. Koc, B. Kromer, G. Jalut, J. Landvik, G. Lemdahl, A.J.

Levesque, A.F. Lotter, J. Lundqvist, J. Mangerud, F.E. Mayle, U. Miller, R. Mott, H. Norddahl, M. O’Connell, A. Paus, D.M. Peteet, A. Pons, M. Reille, P. Richard, M. Saarnisto, J.I. Svendsen, K. Thors, H. Usinger, J.M. Vanmourik, Y. Vasari, C. Verbruggen, I. Walker, M.J.C. Walker, W.A. Watts, and B. Wohlfarth. 1995. Palaeoclimate of the Northern Atlantic seaboards during the lastglacial/interglacial transition. Quaternary International 28:51-62.

Lowell, T.V. 2000. As climate changes, so do glaciers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97(4):1351-1354.

Lu P., J.P. McCreary, and B.A. Klinger. 1998. Meridional circulation cells and the source waters of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent. Journal of Physical Oceanography 28(1):62-84.

Lu P., and J.P. McCreary. 1995. Influence of the ITCZ on the flow of thermocline water from the subtropical to the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25(12):3076-3088.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Lyle M. 1988. Climatically forced organic carbon burial in equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nature 335:529-32.


MacAyeal, D.R. 1992. Irregular oscillations of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 359:29-32.

MacAyeal, D.R. 1993a. A low-order model of growth/purge oscillations of the Laurentide ice sheet. Paleoceanography 8:767-773.

MacAyeal, D.R. 1993b. Binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide ice sheet as a cause of the North Atlantic’s Heinrich events. Paleoceanography 8:775-784.

Macdonald, R.W., E.C. Carmack, F.A. McLaughlin, K.K. Falkner, and J.H. Swift. 1999. Connections among ice, runoff and atmospheric forcing in the Beaufort Gyre. Geophysical Research Letters 26(15):2223-2226.

Mahowald, N., K. Kohfeld, M. Hansson, Y. Balkanski, S.P. Harrison, I.C. Prentice, M. Schulz, and H. Rodhe. 1999. Dust sources and deposition during the last glacial maximum and current climate: A comparison of model results with paleodata from ice cores and marine sediments. Journal of Geophysical Research 104:15, 895-1,5916.

Manabe, S., and A.J. Broccoli. 1985. The influence of continental ice sheets on the climate of an ice age. Journal of Geophysical Research 90(C2):2167-2190.

Manabe, S., and K. Bryan. 1985. CO2-induced change in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and its paleoclimatic implications. Journal of Geophysical Research 90:1689-1707.

Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer. 1988. Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean atmosphere model. Journal of Climate 1:841-866.

Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer. 1993. Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean-atmosphere system. Nature 364:215-218.

Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer. 1994. Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Journal of Climate 7:5-23.

Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer. 1995. Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by freshwater input to the North Atlantic Ocean. Nature 378:165-167.

Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer. 1997. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model response to freshwater input: comparison to the Younger Dryas event. Paleoceanography 12:321-336.

Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer. 1999. Are two modes of the thermohaline circulation stable? Tellus 51(A):400-411.

Mangerud, J. 1991. The last interglacial/glacial cycle in Northern Europe. In L.C.K. Shane and E.J. Cushing (eds.), Quaternary Landscapes. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.

Manion, P.D. 1991. Tree Disease Concepts. Prentice Hall Career and Technology, NJ. 402 pp.

Mann, M., R. Bradley, and M. Hughes. 1998. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392:779-787.

Mann, M., R. Bradley, and M. Hughes. 1999. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 26:759-762.

Mann, M.E., E. Gille, R.S. Bradley, M.K. Hughes, J. Overpeck, F.T. Keimig, and W. Gross. 2000. Global temperature patterns in past centuries: An interactive presentation. Earth Interactions 4(4):1. Also available online at http://earthinteractions.org.

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78:1069-1079.

Marchitto, Jr., T.M., W.B. Curry, and D.W. Oppo. 1998. Millennial-scale changes in North Atlantic circulation since the last deglaciation. Nature 393:557-561.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Markgraf, V. 1991. Younger Dryas in Southern South-America. Boreas 20(63):63-69.

Marotzke, J. 1990. Instabilities and multiple equilibria of the thermohaline circulation. Berichte aus dem Institut für Meereskunde, Kiel. Ph.D. thesis. 126 pp.

Marotzke, J. 1996. Analysis of thermohaline feedbacks. In D.L.T. Anderson, and J. Willebrand (eds.), Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability, Series I, Vol. 44. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Marotzke, J. 1997. Boundary mixing and the dynamics of three-dimensional thermohaline circulations. Journal of Physical Oceanography 27:1713-1728.

Marotzke, J. 2000. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Ameria 97:1347-1350.

Marotzke, J., and J. Willebrand. 1991. Multiple equilibria of the global thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography 21:1372-1385.

Marotzke, J., and J.R. Stott. 1999. Convective mixing and the thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography 29:2962-2970.

Marotzke, J., and B.A. Klinger. 2000. The dynamics of equatorially asymmetric thermohaline circulations. Journal of Physical Oceanography 30:955-970.

Marotzke, J., P. Welander, and J. Willebrand. 1988. Instability and multiple equilibria in a meridional-plane model of the thermohaline circulation. Tellus 40A:162-172.

Marshall, J., and F. Schott. 1999. Open-ocean convection: Observations, theory and models. Reviews of Geophysics 37:1-64.

Martin, P.S. 1984. Prehistoric overkill: the global model. Pp. 354-403 in P.S. Martin and R.G. Klein (eds.), Quaternary Extinctions. University of Arizona Press, Tucson.

Martinson, D.G., P.D Killworth, and A.L. Gordon. 1981. A convective model for the Weddell Polynya. Journal of Physical Oceanography 11(4):466-488.

Maslin, M.A., and S.J. Burns. 2000. Reconstruction of the Amazon basin effective moisture availability over the past 14,000 years. Science 290:2285-2287.

Mathewes, R.W. 1993. Evidence for Younger Dryas age cooling on the North Pacific coast of North America. Quaternary Science Reviews 12:321-332.

Mayewski, P.A., L.D. Meeker, M.S. Twickler, S. Whitlow, Q.Z. Yang, W.B. Lyons, and M. Prentice. 1997. Major features and forcing of high-latitude northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation using a 110,000-year-long glaciochemical series. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:26,345-26,366.

Mayle, F.E., A.J. Levesque, and L.C. Cwynar. 1993. Accelerator mass spectrometry ages for the Younger Dryas event in maritime eastern Canada. Quaternary Research 39:355-360.

McCreary J.P., and P. Lu. 1994. Interaction between the subtropical and equatorial ocean circulations—The subtropical cell. Journal of Physical Oceanography 24(2):466-497.

McGlone M.S., N.T. Moar, P. Wardle, and C.D. Meurk. 1997. Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation and environment of Campbell Island, far southern New Zealand. Holocene 7(1):1-12.

McLaren, A.S., R.G. Barry, and R.H.Bourke. 1990. Could Arctic ice be thinning? Nature 345:762.

McManus, J.F., R.F. Anderson, W.S. Broecker, M.O. Fleisher, and S.M. Higgins. 1998. Radiometrically determined sedimentary fluxes in the sub-polar North Atlantic during the last 140,000 years. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 155:29-43.

McPhaden, M.J., A.J. Busalacchi, R. Cheney, J.-R. Donguy, K.S. Gage, D. Halpern, M. Ji, P. Julian, G. Meyers, G.T. Mitchum, P.P. Niiler, J. Picaut, R.W. Reynolds, N. Smith, and K. Takeuchi. 1998. The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress. Journal of Geophysical Research 103(14):169-240.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Meese, D.A., A.J. Gow, R.B. Alley, G.A. Zielinski, P.M. Grootes, M. Ram, K.C. Taylor, P.A.

Mayewski, and J.F. Bolzan. 1997. The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 depth-age scale: methods and results. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:411-423.

Mellor P.S., and J. Boorman. 1995. The transmission and geographical spread of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology 89(1):1-15.

Meltzer, D. J., and J. I. Mead. 1983. The timing of Late Pleistocene mammalian extinctions in North America. Quaternary Research 19(1):130-135.

Mendelsohn R., W.D. Nordhaus, and D. Shaw. 1994. The impact of global warming on agriculture—A Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review 84(4):753-771.

Mendelsohn R. 2001. Abrupt climate change and forests. Paper prepared for Workshop on Economic and Ecological Impacts of Abrupt Climate Change. March 22-23, 2001.

Mercer, J.H. 1969. The Allerod oscillation: A European climate anomaly? Arctic and Alpine Research 1:227-234.

Mikolajewicz, U., and E. Maier-Reimer. 1994. Mixed boundary conditions in ocean general circulation models and their influence on the stability of the model’s conveyor belt. Journal of Geophysical Research 99:22, 633-22, 644.

Mikolajewicz, U., and R. Voss. 2000. The role of the individual air-sea flux components in CO2-induced changes of the ocean’s circulation and climate. Climate Dynamics 16:627-642.

Mikolajewicz, U., T.J. Crowley, A. Schiller, and R. Voss. 1997. Modeling teleconnections between the North Atlantic and North Pacific during the Younger Dryas. Nature 387:384-387.

Minobe, S. 1997. Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters 26:855-858.

Minobe, S., and N. Mantua. 1999. Interdecadal modulation of interannual atmospheric and oceanic variability over the North Pacific. Progress in Oceanography 43(2-4):163-192.

Mitsch, W.J., and J.G. Gosselink. 2000. Wetlands. John Wiley and Sons, New York.

Molinari, R.L., R.A. Fine, W.D. Wilson, R.G. Curry, J. Abell, and M.S. McCartney. 1998. The arrival of recently formed Labrador Sea Water in the Deep Western Boundary Current at 26.5°N. Geophysical Research Letters 25:2249-2252.

Monahan, A.H., J.C. Fyfe, and G.M. Flato. 2000. A regime view of northern hemisphere atmospheric variability and change under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 7:1139-1142.

Montoya, M., T.J. Crowley, and H. von Storch. 1998. Temperatures at the last interglacial simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Paleoceanography 12(2):170-177.

Moreno, P.I., G.L. Jacobson, T.V. Lowell, and G.H. Denton. 2001. Interhemispheric climate links revealed by a late-glacial cooling episode in southern Chile. Nature 409(6822):804-808.

Morison, J.H., M. Steele, and R. Andersen. 1998. Hydrography of the upper Arctic Ocean measured from the nuclear submarine USS Pargo. Deep-Sea Research 45:15-38.

Morrill, C., J.T. Overpeck, and J.E. Cole. In review. A synthesis of abrupt changes in the Asian summer monsoon since the last deglaciation. The Holocene.

Mott, R.J. 1994. Wisconsinian late-glacial environmental change in Nova Scotia: A regional synthesis. Journal of Quaternary Science 9:155-160.

Muhs, D.R., and V.T. Holliday. 1995. Evidence of active dune sand on the Great Plains in the 19th century from accounts of early explorers . Quaternary Research 43:198-208.

Muhs, D.R., and V.T. Holliday. 2001. Origin of late quaternary dune fields on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. Geological Society of America Bulletin 113:75-87.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Munk, W. 1966. Abyssal recipes. Deep-Sea Research 13:707-730.

Munk, W., and C. Wunsch. 1998. Abyssal recipes II, energetics of tidal and wind mixing. Deep-Sea Research 45:1977-2010.


Namias, J. 1960. Factors in the initiation, perpetuation and termination of drought. Extract of Publ. No. 51, International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Commission of Surface Waters. [Available from IAHS Press, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.]

National Assessment Synthesis Team. 2000. Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. [Online]. Available: http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/ [2001, April 25].

National Research Council (NRC). 1992. Water Transfers in the West: Efficiency, Equity, and the Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council (NRC). 1998. Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council (NRC). 1999a. From Monsoons to Microbes: Understanding the Ocean’s Role in Human Health. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council (NRC). 1999b. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council (NRC). 1999c. Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council (NRC). 1999d. Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council (NRC). 2000. Global Change Ecosystems Research. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council (NRC). 2001. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

Newnham, R.M., and D.J. Lowe. 2000. New Zealand paleoclimate. Geology 28:759-762.

Nicholson, S.E., C.J. Tucker, and M.B. Ba. 1998. Desertification, drought, and surface vegetation: An example from the West African Sahel. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80:815-829.

Nicholson, S.E. 2001. Climatic and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries. Climate Research Special Issue 17(2):123-144.

Nigam, S., I.M. Held, and S.W. Lyons. 1988. Linear Simulation of the Stationary Eddies in a Gcm.2. The mountain model. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 45(9):1433-1452.

Nitsche, G., J.M. Wallace, and C. Kooperberg. 1994. Is there evidence of multiple equilibria in planetary wave amplitude statistics? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 51:314-322.

Nitta T., and S. Yamada. 1989. Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 67:187-193.

Nordhaus, W.D. 1994. Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, Cambridge.

Nordhaus, W.D. 2000. The Economic Impacts of Abrupt Climatic Change. Prepared for the Yale/NBER Workshop on the Societal Impact of Abrupt Climate Change, Snowmass, Colorado, July 24-25.

Nordhaus, W.D., and E. Kokkelenberg (eds.). 1999. Nature’s Numbers: Expanding the National Economic Accounts to Include the Environment. Panel on Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

Nordhaus, W.D., and J. Boyer. 2000. Warming the World: Economic Modeling of Global Warming. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, Cambridge.

Norris, R.D., and U. Röhl. 1999. Carbon cycling and chronology of climate warming during the Palaeocene/Eocene transition. Nature 401:775-778.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

O’Brien, S.R., P.A. Mayewski, L.D. Meeker, D.A. Meese, M.S. Twickler, and S.I. Whitlow. 1995. Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core. Science 270:1962-1964.

Oeschger, H., J. Beer, U. Siegenthaler, B. Stauffer, W. Dansgaard, and C.C. Langway. 1984. Late glacial climate history from ice cores. Pp. 299-306 in J. Hansen and T. Takahashi (eds.), Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Olsen, S.L.K. 1989. P 50 in D. Western and M.C. Pearl (eds.), Conservation for the Twenty-first Century. Oxford Univ. Press, UK.

Oppenheimer, M. 1998. Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature 393:325-332.

Oppo, D.W., and S.J. Lehman. 1995. Suborbital timescale variability of North Atlantic deep water formation during the last 200,000 years. Paleoceanography 12:191-205.

Oppo, D.W., M. Horowitz, and S.J. Lehman. 1997. Marine core evidence for reduced deepwater production during Termination II followed by a relatively stable substage 5e (Eemian). Paleoceanography 12(1):51-63.

Opsteegh, J.D., R.J. Haarsma, F.M. Selten, and A. Kattenberg. 1998. ECBILT: A dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models. Tellus 50(A):348-367.

Orsi, A.H., G.C. Johnson, and J.L. Bullister. 1999. Circulation, mixing, and production of Antarctic Bottom Water. Progress in Oceanography 43:55-109.

Osborne, G., C. Clapperton, P.T. Davis, M. Reasoner, D.T. Rodbell, G.O. Seltzer, and G. Zielinski. 1995. Potential glacial evidence for the Younger Dryas event in the cordillera of North and South America. Quaternary Science Reviews 14(9):823-832.

Otterman, J. 1981. Satellite and field studies of man’s impact on the surface in arid regions. Tellus 33:68-77.

Otto-Bliesner, B.L. 1999. El Niño, La Niña, and Sahel precipitation during the middle Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters 26:87-90.

Overpeck, J. 1996. Warm climate surprises. Science 271:1820-1821.

Overpeck, J., D. Rind, A. Lacis, and R. Healy. 1996. Possible role of dust-induced regional warming in abrupt climate change during the last glacial period. Nature 384:447-449.

Overpeck, J., K. Hughen, D. Hardy, R. Bradley, R. Case, M. Douglas, B. Finney, K. Gajewski, G. Jacoby, A. Jennings, S. Lamoreux, A. Lasca, G. MacDonald, J. Moore, M. Retelle, S. Smith, A. Wolfe, and G. Zielinski. 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries. Science 278:1251-1256.

Overpeck, J., and T. Webb. 2000. Nonglacial rapid events: Past and future. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97:1335-1338.


Palmer, W.M. 1965. Meteorological Drought. Research Pape No. 45, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C. 58 pp. [Available from NOAA Library and Information Services Divi sion, Washington, DC 20852.]

Palmer, T.N. 1993. Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 74(1):49-65.

Palmer, T.N. 1999. A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction. Journal of Climate 12:575-591.

Parkinson, C.L. 2000. Variability of Arctic sea ice: The view from space, an 18-year record. Arctic 53(4):341-358.

Parson, E.A., and K. Fisher-Vanden. 1997. Integrated assessment of global climate change. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 22:589-628.

Pascual, M., X. Rodo, S.P. Ellner, R. Colwell, and M.J. Bouma. 2000. Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science 289(5485):1766-1769.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Patrick, A., and R.C. Thunell. 1997. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and upper water column thermal structure during the last glacial maximum. Paleoceanography 12: 649-657.

Patten, R.S., and D.H. Knight. 1994. Snow avalanches and vegetation patterns in Cascade Canyon, Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA. Arctic and Alpine Research 26:35-41.

Pearce, F. 2000. Sink or swim. New Scientist 167:16-17.

Pearson, P.N., P.W. Ditchfield, J. Singano, K.G. Harcourt-Brown, C.J. Nicholas, R.K. Olsson, N.J. Shackleton, and M.A. Hall. 2001. Warm tropical sea surface temperatures in the late Cretaceous and Eocene epochs. Nature 413 (6855):481-487.

Perlwitz, J., and H.F. Graf. 1995. The statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere in winter. Journal of Climate 8:2281-2295.

Peteet, D.M. 1995. Global Younger Dryas? Quaternary International 28: 93-104.

Peteet, D.M. 2000. Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97(4):1359-1361.

Peteet, D.M., and D.H. Mann. 1994. Late-glacial vegetational, tephra, and climatic history of southwestern Kodiak Island, Alaska. Ecoscience 1(3):255-267.

Peteet, D.M., J.S. Vogel, D.E. Nelson, J.R. Southon, J.R. Nickman, and L.E. Heusser. l990. Younger Dryas climatic reversal in northeastern USA: AMS ages for an old problem. Quaternary Research 33:219-230.

Peteet, D.M., R.A. Daniels, L.E. Heusser, J.S. Vogel, J.R. Southon, and D.E. Nelson. 1993. Late-glacial pollen, macrofossils, and fish remains in northeastern USA-the Younger Dryas oscillation. Quaternary Science Reviews 12:597-612.

Peteet, D.M., A. Del Genio, and K.K. Lo. 1997. Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere air temperatures and snow expansion to North Pacific sea surface temperatures in the GISS GCM. Journal of Geophysical Research 102(D20):23,781-23,791.

Peterson, L.C., G.H. Haug, K.A. Hughen, and U. Rohl. 2000. Rapid changes in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last glacial. Science 290:1947-1950.

Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis, G. Delaygue, M. Delmotte, V.M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V.Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L. Pepin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399:429-436.

Petoukhov, V., A. Ganopolski, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, A. Eliseev, C. Kubatzki, and S. Rahmstorf. 2000. CLIMBER-2: A climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: model description and performance for present climate. Climate Dynamics 16:1-17.

Pickett, S.T., and P.S. White (eds.). 1985. The Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics. Academic Press, San Diego.

Pickup, G. 1998. Desertification and climate change – the Australian perspective. Climate Research 11:51-63.

Pielke, Jr., R.A. 1999. Who decides forecasts and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River flood? American Behavioral Science Review 7(2):83-101.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and C.W. Landsea. 1998. La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80:2027-8033.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and M.W. Downton. 2000. Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in the United States, 1932-1997. Journal of Climate 13(20):3625-3637.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Pierrehumbert, R.T. 1999. Subtropical water vapor as a mediator of rapid global climate change. P. 394 in P.U. Clark, R.S. Webb, and L.D. Keigwin (eds.), Mechanisms of Global Change at Millennial Time Scales. Geophysical Monograph Series 112. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Pierrehumbert, R.T. 2000. Climate change and the tropical Pacific: The sleeping dragon wakes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97:1355-1358.

Pierrehumbert R.T., and R. Roca. 1998. Evidence for control of Atlantic subtropical humidity by large scale advection. Geophysical Research Letters 25(24):4537-4540.

Pimentel, D., and N. Kounang. 1998. Ecology of soil erosion in ecosystems. Ecosystems 1(5):416-426.

Piperno, D.R., M.B. Bush, and P.A. Colinvaux. 1990. Paleoenvironments and human settlements in late-glacial Panama. Quaternary Research 33:108-116.

Pisias, N.G., and A.C. Mix. 1997. Spatial and temporal oceanographic variability of the eastern equatorial Pacific during the later Pleistocene: Evidence from radiolaria microfossils. Paleoceanography 12:381-93.

Pollard, D., and S.L. Thompson. 1997. Climate and ice-sheet mass balance at the last glacial maximum from the GENESIS Version 2 global climate model. Quaternary Science Reviews 16:841-864.

Postel, S. 2000. Entering an era of water scarcity: The challenges ahead. Ecological Applications 10:941-948.

Poulsen, C.J., R.T. Pierrehumbert, and R.L. Jacob. 2001. Impact of ocean dynamics on the simulation of the Neoproterozoic “snowball earth.” Geophysical Research Letters 28(8):1575-1578.

Precht, H., J. Christophersen, H. Hensel, and W. Larcher. 1973. Temperature and Life. Springer-Verlag, New York.


Radersma, S., and N. de Reider. 1996. Computed evapotranspiration of annual and perennial crops at different temporal and spatial scales using published parameter values. Agricultural Water Management 31:17-34.

Rahmstorf, S. 1994. Rapid climate transitions in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature 372:82-85.

Rahmstorf, S. 1995. Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle. Nature 378:145-149.

Rahmstorf, S. 1996. On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Climate Dynamics 12:799-811.

Rahmstorf, S., and J. Willebrand. 1995. The role of temperature feedback in stabilizing the thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25:787-805.

Rajagopalan, B., U. Lall, and M.A. Cane. 1999. Comment on “Reply to the comments of Trenberth and Hurrell.” American Meteorological Society 80(12):2724-2726.

Reale, O., and P. Dirmeyer. 2000. Modeling the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the Roman Classical Period. Part I: Climate history and model sensitivity. Global and Planetary Change 25(3-4):163-184.

Reid, J.L. 1994. On the total geostrophic circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean: Flow patterns, tracers and transports. Progress in Oceanography 33:1-92.

Reid, J.L. 1998. On the total geostrophic circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Flow patterns, tracers and transports. Progress in Oceanography 39:263-352.

Reid, J.L. 2001. On the total geostrophic circulation of the Indian Ocean. Flow patterns, tracers and transports. Progress in Oceanography 39(4):263-352.

Reilly, J. Submitted. Abrupt climate change and agriculture. Climatic Change.

Reilly, J., and N. Hohmann. 1993. Climate change and agriculture: The role of international trade. American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 83:306-312.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Reilly, J., N. Hohmann, and S. Kane. 1993. Climate change and agriculture: Global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade. MIT-CEEPR 93-012WP. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, MIT, August 1993.

Reilly, J., and D. Schimmelpfennig. 2000. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and learning: Portraits of adaptation to long-term climate change. Climatic Change 45:253-278.

Reiter, P. 1998. Global-warming and vector-borne disease in temperate regions and at high altitude. Lancet 351(9105):839-840.

Renssen, H., and R.F.B. Isarin. 1998. Surface temperature in northwest Europe during the Younger Dryas: AGCM simulation compared with temperature reconstructions. Climate Dynamics 14:33-44.

Renssen, H., H. Goosse, T. Fichefet, and J.M. Campin. 2001. The 8.2 kyr BP event simulated by a global atmosphere-sea ice-ocean model. Geophysical Research Letters 28(8):1567-1570.

Renwick, J.A., and M.J. Revell. 1999. Blocking over the South Pacific and Rossby Wave Propagation. Monthly Weather Review 127(10):2233–2247.

Riebsame, W.E., S.A. Changnon, and T.R. Karl. 1991. Drought and Natural Resources Management in the United States: Impacts and Implications of the 1987-89 Drought. Westview Press. 174 pp.

Rigor, I.G., J.M. Wallace, and R.L. Colony. Submitted. On the response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation . Journal of Climate.

Rind, D. 1982. The influence of ground moisture conditions in North America on summer climate as modeled in the GISS GCM. Monthly Weather Review 110:1488-1494.

Rind, D., R. Goldberg, and R. Ruedy. 1989. Change in climate variability in the 21st century. Climatic Change 14:5-37.

Robert, C., and H. Maillot. 1990. Paleoenvironments in the Weddell Sea area and Antarctic climates, as deduced from clay mineral associations and geochemical data, ODP Leg 113. In P.F. Barker, J.P. Kennett, S. O‘Connell, S. Berkowitz, W. Bryant, L. Burckle, P.K. Egeberg, D.K. Fuetterer, R. Gersonde, X. Golovchenko, N. Hamilton, L. Lawver, D.B. Lazarus, M.J. Lonsdale, B. Mohr, T. Nagao, C.P.G. Pereira, C. Pudsey, C.M. Robert, E.S. Schandl, V. Spiess, L.D. Stott, E. Thomas, K. Thompson, S.W. Wise, D.M. Kennett, A. Masterson, and N.J. Stewart (eds.), Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program: Scientific Results, Vol. 113. Ocean Drilling Program, College Station, Texas.

Rodbell, D.T., and G.O. Seltzer. 2000. Rapid ice margin fluctuations during the Younger Dryas in the tropical Andes. Quaternary Research 54(3):328-338.

Rodbell, D.T., G.O. Seltzer, D.M. Anderson, M.B Abbott, D.B. Enfield, and J.H. Newman. 1999. An ~15,000 record of El Niño-driven alluviation in southwestern Ecuador. Science 283:516-520.

Rodwell, M.J., and B.J. Hoskins. 2001. Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. Journal of Climate 14:3192-3211.

Rodwell, M.J., D.P. Rowell, and C.K. Folland. 1999. Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature 398:320-323.

Roe, G.H., and R.S. Lindzen. 2001. The mutual interaction between continental-scale ice sheets and atmospheric stationary waves. Journal of Climate 14:1450-1465.

Rooth, C. 1982. Hydrology and ocean circulation. Progress in Oceanography 11:131-149.

Rothrock, D.A., Y. Yu, and G.A. Maykut, 1999. Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters 26:3469-3472.

Rosenberg, N.J. 1978. North American Drought. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Westview Press, New York.

Rosenzweig, C., and M. L. Parry. 1994. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133-138.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Rothrock, D.A., Y. Yu, and G.A. Maykut. 1999. Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters 26:3469-3472.

Roy, D.B., and T.H. Sparks. 2000. Phenology of British butterflies and climate change. Global Change Biology 6:407-416.

Ruddiman, W.F., and A. McIntyre. 1981. The mode and mechanism of the last deglaciation: Oceanic evidence. Quaternary Research 16:125-134.


Sachs J.P., and S.J. Lehman. 1999. Subtropical North Atlantic temperatures 60,000 to 30,000 years ago. Science 286:756-759.

Sampat, P. 2000. Deep trouble: The hidden threat of groundwater pollution. Worldwatch Paper #154. Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C. 55 pp.

Sandweiss, D.H., K.A. Maasch, R.L. Burger, J.B. Richardson III, H.B. Rollins, and A. Clement. 2001. Variation in Holocene El Niño frequencies: Climate records and cultural consequences in ancient Peru. Geology 29(7):603-606.

Sarnthein, M., K. Winn, S.J.A. Jung, J.C. Duplessy, L. Labeyrie, H. Erlenkeuser, and G. Ganssen. 1994. Changes in east Atlantic deepwater circulation over the last 30,000 years: Eight time slice reconstructions. Paleoceanography 9:209-267.

Scherer, R.P., A. Aldahan, S. Tulaczyk, G. Possnert, H. Engelhardt, and B. Kamb. 1998. Pleistocene collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 281:82-85.

Schiller, A., U. Mikolajewicz, and R. Voss. 1997. The stability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Climate Dynamics 13:325-347.

Schlesinger, W.H. 1991. Biogeochemistry: An Analysis of Global Change. Academic Press, San Diego, CA. 443 pp.

Schlosser, P., B. Kromer, R. Weppernig, H.H. Loosli, R. Bayer, G. Bonani, and M. Suter. 1994. The distribution of C-14 and Ar-39 in the Weddell Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research 99(C5):10, 275-10,287.

Schmitt, R.W., P.S. Bogden, and C.E. Dorman. 1989. Evaporation minus precipitation and density fluxes for the North Atlantic. Journal of Physical Oceanography 19:1208-1221.

Schmittner, A. and A.J. Weaver. 2001. Dependence of multiple climate states on ocean mixing parameters. Geophysical Research Letters 28:1027-1030.

Schmittner, A., C. Appenzeller, and T.F. Stocker. 2000. Enhanced Atlantic freshwater export during El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters 27:1163-1166.

Schmitz, B., V. Pujalte, and K. Nunez-Betelu. 2001. Climate and sea-level perturbations during the initial Eocene thermal maximum; evidence from siliciclastic units in the Basque Basin (Ermua, Zumaia and Trabakua Pass), northern Spain. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 165:299-320.

Schulz, H., U.V. Rad, and H. Erlenkeuser. 1998. Correlation between Arabian Sea and Greenland climate oscillations of the past 110,000 years. Nature 393:54-57.

Schwartz, M.D., and B.E. Reiter. 2000. Changes in North American spring. International Journal of Climatology 20:929-932.

Scott, L., M. Steenhamp, and P.B. Beaumont. 1995. Paleoenvironmental conditions in South Africa at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Quaternary Science Reviews 14:937-948.

Scott, J.R., J. Marotzke, and P.H. Stone. 1999. Interhemispheric thermohaline circulation in a coupled box model. Journal of Physical Oceanography 29:351-365.

Seager R., A.C. Clement, and M.A. Cane. 2000. Glacial cooling in the tropics: Exploring the roles of tropospheric water vapor, surface wind speed, and boundary layer processes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 57(13):2144-2157.

Seager R., D.S. Battisti, J. Yin, N. Gordon, N. Naik, A.C. Clement, and M.A. Cand. Submitted. Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe’s mild winters? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Sellers, W.D. 1969. A global climate model based on the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere system. Journal of Applied Meteorology 8:392-400.

Sellinger, C.E., and F. Quinn. 1999. Proceedings of the Great Lakes Paleo-Levels Workshop: The Last 4000 Years. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-113. National Oceanic and Atmosphericc Admnistration, Silver Spring, MD. 43 pp.

Severinghaus, J.P., T. Sowers, E.J. Brook, R.B. Alley, and M.L. Bender. 1998. Timing of abrupt climate change at the end of the Younger Dryas interval from thermally fractionated gases in polar ice. Nature 391:141-146.

Shafer, S.L., P.J. Bartlein, and R.S. Thompson. 2001. Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios. Ecosystems 4(3):200-215.

Shane, L.C.K., and K.H. Anderson. 1993. Intensity, gradients, and reversals in late-glacial environmental change in east-central North America. Quaternary Science Reviews 12:307-320.

Shindell, D.T., R.L. Miller, G. Schmidt, and L. Pandolfo. 1999. Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature 399:452-455.

Shindell, D.T., G.A. Schmidt, R.L. Miller, and D. Rind. 2001. Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research 106:7193-7210.

Shukla, H., and Y. Mintz. 1982. The influence of land surface evapotranspiration on the earth’s climate. Science 215:1498-1501.

Sillett T.S., R.T. Holmes, and T.W. Sherry. 2000. Impacts of a global climate cycle on population dynamics of a migratory songbird. Science 288(5473):2040-2042.

Singer, C., J. Shulmeister, and B. McLea. 1998. Evidence against a significant Younger Dryas cooling event in New Zealand. Science 281(5378):812-814.

Sissons, J.B. 1967. The Evolution of Scotland’s Scenery. Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh.

Skaggs, R.H. 1975. Drought in the United States 1931-1940. Annual Association of American Geography 65:391-402.

Smethie, W.M., and R.A. Fine. 2001. Rates of North Atlantic deep water formation calculated from chlorofluorocarbon inventories. Deep-Sea Research 48:189-215.

Smethie, W.M., R.A. Fine, A. Putzka, and E.P. Jones. 2000. Tracing the flow of North Atlantic Deep Water using chlorofluorocarbons. Journal of Geophysical Research 105(C6):14, 297-14, 323.

Smith, J., M.J. Risk, H.P. Schwarcz, and T.A. McConaugher. 1997. Rapid climate change in the North Atlantic during the Younger Dryas recorded by deep-sea corals. Nature 386:818-820.

Sohngen, B., and R. Mendelsohn. 1998. Valuing the market impact of large-scale ecological change: The effect of climate change on U.S. timber. American Economic Review 88:686-710.

Somayao, C.R., E.T. Kanemasu, and T.W. Brakke. 1980. Using leaf temperature to assess evapotranspiration and advection. Agricultural Meteorology 22:153-166.

Sparks, T., H. Heyen, O. Braslavska, and E. Lehikoinen. 1999. Are European birds migrating earlier? BTO News 223:8-9.

Spear, R.W., M.B. Davis, and L.C.K. Shane. 1994. Late Quaternary history of low and mid-elevation vegetation in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Ecological Monographs 64:85-109.

Speer J.H., T.W. Swetnam, B.E. Wickman, and A. Youngblood. 2001. Changes in pandora moth outbreak dynamics during the past 622 years. Ecology 82(3):679-697.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Spinelli, G. 1996. A statistical analysis of ice-accumulation level and variability in the GISP2 ice core and a reexamination of the age of the termination of the Younger Dryas cooling episode. Earth System Science Center Technical Report No. 96-001. The Pennsylvania State University, University Park.

Stager J.C., and P.A. Mayewski. 1997. Abrupt early to mid-Holocene climatic transition registered at the equator and the poles. 1997. Science 276(5320):1834-1836.

Stahle, D.W., E.R. Cook, M.K. Cleaveland, M.D. Therrell, D.M. Meko, H.D. Grissino-Mayer, E. Watson, and B.H. Luckman. 2000. Tree-ring data document 16th century mega-drought over North America. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 81(12): 121, 125.

Stahle, D.W., M.K. Cleaveland, D.B. Blanton, M.D. Therrell, and D.A. Gay. 1998. The Lost Colony and Jamestown droughts. Science 280:564-566.

Stamm, J.F., E.F. Wood,and D.P. Lettenmaier. 1994. Sensitivity of a GCM simulation of global climate to the representation of land-surface hydrology. Journal of Climate 7:1218-1239.

Steig, E.J., E.J. Brook, J.W.C. White, C.M. Sucher, M.L. Bender, S.J. Lehman, D.L. Morse, E.D. Waddington and G.D. Clow. 1998. Synchronous climate changes in Antarctica and the North Atlantic. Science 282:92-95.

Stine, S. 1994. Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during mediaeval time. Nature 369:546-549.

Stocker, T.F. 1998. The seesaw effect. Science 282:61-62.

Stocker, T.F. 2000. Past and future reorganisations in the climate system. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:301-319.

Stocker, T.F., D.G. Wright, and W.S. Broecker. 1992. The influence of high-latitude surface forcing on the global thermohaline circulation. Paleoceanography 7:529-41.

Stocker, T.F., and A. Schmittner. 1997. Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 388:862-865.

Stocker, T.F., and D.G. Wright. 1991. Rapid transitions of the ocean’s deep circulation induced by changes in surface water fluxes. Nature 351:729-732.

Stocker, T.F., and O. Marchal. 2000. Abrupt climate change in the computer: is it real? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97:1362-1365.

Stocker, T.F., and O. Marchal. 2001. Recent progress in paleoclimate modeling: Climate models of reduced complexity. PAGES Newsletter 9(1):4-7.

Stocker, T.F., D.G. Wright, and L.A. Mysak. 1992. A zonally averaged, coupled ocean-atmosphere model for paleoclimate studies. Journal of Climate 5:773-797.

Stommel, H. 1961. Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus 13:224-230.

Stommel, H., and E. Stommel. 1983. Volcano Weather: The Story of the Year Without a Summer. Seven Seas Press, Newport, RI. 177 pp.

Stott, P.A., S.F.B. Tett, G.S. Jones, M.R. Allen, J.F.B. Mitchell, and G.J. Jenkins. 2000. External control of 20th Century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Science 290:2133-2137.

Street, D.G., and M.H. Glantz, 2000. Exploring the concept of climate surprise. Global Environmental Change 10:97-107.

Street-Perrott, F.A., and R.A. Perrott. 1990. Abrupt climate fluctuations in the tropics: The influence of Atlantic Ocean circulation. Nature 343:607-611.

Street-Perrott, F.A., J.A. Holmes, M.P. Waller, M.J. Allen, N.G.H. Barber, P.A. Fothergill, D.D. Harkness, M. Ivanovich, D. Kroon, and R.A. Ferrott. 2000. Drought and dust deposition in the West African Sahel: A 5500-year record from Kajemarum Oasis, northeastern Nigeria. The Holocene 10:293-302.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Stuiver, M., P.M. Grootes, and T.F. Brazunias. 1995. The GISP2 δ'8O record of the past 16,500 years and the role of the sun, ocean and volcanoes. Quaternary Research 44:341-354.

Sud, Y.C., and A. Molod. 1988. A GCM simulation study of the influence of Saharan evapotranspiration and surface-albedo anomalies on July circulation and rainfall. Monthly Weather Review 116:2388-2400.

Sutera, A. 1986. Probability density distribution of large-scale atmospheric flow. Advances in Geophysics 29:227-249.

Svensmark, H., and E. FriisChristensen. 1997. Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage—A missing link in solar-climate relationships. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 59(11):1225-1232.

Svensmark, H. 1998. Influence of cosmic rays on Earth’s climate. Physical Review Letters 81(22):5027-5030.

Swetnam T.W., C.D. Allen CD, and J.L. Betancourt. 1999. Applied historical ecology: Using the past to manage for the future. Ecological Applications 9(4):1189-1206.

Swetnam, T.W., and J.L. Betancourt. 1990. Fire-southern oscillation relations in the southwestern United States. Science 249:1017-1020.

Swetnam, T.W., and J.L. Betancourt. 1998. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. Journal of Climate 11:3128-3147.

Sy, A., M. Rhein, J.R.N. Lazier, K.P. Koltermann, J. Meincke, A. Putzka, and M. Bersch. 1997. Surprisingly rapid spreading of newly formed intermediate waters across the North Atlantic ocean. Nature 386:675-679.


Talley, L.D. 1999. Some aspects of ocean heat transport by the shallow, intermediate and deep overturning circulations. Pp. 1-22 in P.U. Clark, R.S. Webb, and L.D. Keigwin (eds.), Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millenial Time Scales. Geophysical Monograph Series 112. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.

Taylor, K.C., G.W. Lamorey, G.A. Doyle, R.B. Alley, P.M. Grootes, P.A. Mayewski, J.W.C. White, and L.K. Barlow. 1993. The “flickering switch”of late Pleistocene climate change. Nature 361:432-436.

Taylor, K.C., P.A. Mayewski, M.S. Twickler, and S.I. Whitlow. 1996. Biomass burning recorded in the GISP2 ice core: A record from eastern Canada. Holocene 6:1-6.

Taylor, K.C., P.A. Mayewski, R.B. Alley, E.J. Brook, A.J. Gow, P.M. Grootes, D.A. Meese, E.S. Saltzman, J.P. Severinghaus, M.S. Twickler, J.W.C. White, S. Whitlow, and G.A. Zielinski. 1997. The Holocene/Younger Dryas transition recorded at Summit, Greenland. Science 278:825-827.

Teller, J.T. 1990. Meltwater and precipitation runoff to the North Atlantic, Arctic, and Gulf of Mexico from the Laurentide ice sheet and adjacent regions during the Younger Dryas. Paleoceanography 5:897-905.

Teller, J.T. In press. Freshwater outbursts to the oceans from glacial Lake Agassiz and climate change during the last deglaciation. Quaternary Science Reviews.

Thomas, E., and N.J. Shackleton. 1996. The Paleocene-Eocene benthic foraminiferal extinction and stable isotope anomalies. Pp. 401-441 in R. Knox, R.M. Corfield, and R.E. Dunay (eds.), Correlation of the Early Paleogene in Northwest Europe. Special Publications of the Geological Society of London, Vol. 101.

Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Wallace. 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophysical Research Letters 25:1297-1300.

Thompson, D.W.J., J.M. Wallace, and G.C. Hegerl. 2000. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. Journal of Climate 13:1018-1036.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, M.E. Davis, P.N. Lin, K.A. Henderson, J. Cole-Dai, J.F. Bolzan, and K.B. Liu. 1995. Late-glacial stage and Holocene tropical ice core records from Huascaran, Peru. Science 269:46-50.

Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, T.A. Sowers, K.A. Henderson, V.S. Zagorodnov, P.N. Lin, V.N. Mikhalenko, R.K. Campen, J.F. Bolzan, J. Cole-Dai, and B. Francou. 1998. A 25,000-year tropical climate history from Bolivian ice cores. Science 282:1858-1864.

Timmermann, A., and G. Lohmann. 2000. Noise-induced transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography 30:1891-1900

Timmermann A., J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, and E. Roeckner. 1999. Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature 398(6729):694-697.

Tinner, W., and A.F. Lotter. 2001. Central European vegetation response to abrupt climate change at 8.2 ka. Geology 29(6):551-554.

Toggweiler, R., and B. Samuels. 1995. Effect of the Drake Passage on the global thermohaline circulation. Deep-Sea Research 42:477-500.

Toresen, R., and O.J. Ostvedt. 2000. Variation in abundance of Norwegian spring-spawned herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae) throughout the 20th Century and the influence of climatic fluctuations. Fish and Fisheries 1:231-256.

Toth, F. 2000. Invoking Apocalypse: Coping with the Risk of Abrupt Climate Change. Prepared for the Yale/NBER Workshop on the Societal Impact of Abrupt Climate Change, Snowmass, Colorado, July 24-25.

Toth, F., M. Mwandosya, C. Carraro, J. Christensen, J. Edmonds, B. Flannery, C. Gay-Garcia, H. Lee, K.M. Meyer-Abich, E. Nikitina, A. Rahman, Y. Ruqiu, A. Villavicencio, Y. Wake, and J. Weyant. 2001. Decision making frameworks. In Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK.

Trauth, M.H., A Deino, and M.R. Strecker. 2001. Response of the East African climate to orbital forcing during the last interglacial (130-117 ka) and the early last glacial (117-60 ka). Geology 29(6):499-502.

Trenberth, K.E. 1990. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 71:988-993.

Trenberth, K.E., and T.J. Hoar. 1996. The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record. Geophysical Research Letters 23:57-60.

Trenberth, K.E. 1999. Atmospheric moisture recycling: Role of advection and local evaporation. Journal of Climate 12:1368-1381.

Trenberth K.E., and J.W. Hurrell. 1999a. Comments on “The interpretation of short climate records with comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(12):2721-2722.

Trenberth K.E., and J.W. Hurrell. 1999b. Reply to Rajagopalan, Lall, and Cane’s comment about “The interpretation of short climate records with comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(12):2726-2728.

Tudhope, A.W., C.P. Chilcott, M.T. McCulloch, E.R. Cook, J. Chappell, R.M. Ellam, C.W. Lea, J.M. Lough, and G.B. Shimmield. 2001. Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle. Science 291:1511-1517.

Tziperman, E. 1997. Inherently unstable climate behavior due to weak thermohaline ocean circulation. Nature 386:592-595.


United Nations (UN). 1980. M.K. Biswas and A.K. Biswas (eds.), Desertification. Pergamon Press, London.

Urban, F.E., J.E. Cole, and J.T. Overpeck. 2000. Influence of mean climate change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record. Nature 407:989-993.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

van der Hammen, T., and H. Hooghiemstra. 1995. The El Abra stadial, a Younger Dryas equivalent in Colombia. Quaternary Science Reviews 14(9):841-851.

van Kolfschoten, T., and P.L. Gibbard. 2000. The Eemian—local sequences, global perspectives: Introduction. Geologie en Mijnbouw 79(2-3):129-133.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 1994. The Great Flood of 1993 Post-Flood Report: Upper Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River Basins–Main Report. North Central Division. 609 pp.

Verschuren, D., K.R. Laird, and B.F. Cumming. 2000. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years. Nature 403:410-414.

Villalba R., and T.T. Veblen. 1998. Influences of large-scale climatic variability on episodic tree mortality in northern Patagonia. Ecology 79(8):2624-2640.

Vinnikov, K.Y., A. Robock, R.J. Stouffer, J.E. Walsh, C.L. Parkinson, D.J. Cavalieri, J.F.B. Mitchell, D. Garrett, and V.F. Zakharov. 1999. Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent. Science 286:1934-1937.

Vitousek, P.M., P.R. Ehrlich, A.H. Ehrlich, and P.A. Matson. 1986. Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis. Bioscience 36:368.

Vitousek, P.M., H.A. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, and J.M. Melillo. 1997. Human domination of earth’s ecosystems. Science 277:494-499.

Volodin, E.M., and V.Y. Galin. 1999. Interpretation of winter warming on Northern Hemisphere continents in 1977-94. Journal of Climate 12 (10): 2947-2955 8:23-32.

von Grafenstein, U., H. Erlenkeuser, A. Brauer, J. Jouzel, and S.J. Johnsen. 1999. A Mid-European decadal isotope-climate record from 15,500 to 5000 years BP. Science 284(5420):1654-1657.


Wadhams, P., and N.R. Davis. 2000. Further evidence of ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters 27:3973-3975.

Walker, M.J.C. 1995. Climatic changes in Europe during the last glacial/interglacial transition. Quaternary International 28:63-76.

Walker, M.J.C., G.R. Coope, and J.J. Lowe. 1993. The Devensian (Weichselian) late-glacial paleoenvironmental record from Gransmoor, East Yorkshire, England. Quaternary Science Reviews 12:659-680.

Walker, L.R., and M.R. Willig (eds.). 1999. Ecology of Disturbed Ground. Elsevier, Amsterdam.

Wallace, J.M. 2000. North Atlantic Oscillation/Northern Hemisphere annular mode: One phenomenon, two paradigms. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126:791-805.

Walsh, J.E., W.L. Chapman, and T.L. Shy. 1996. Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central Arctic . Journal of Climate 9:480-486.

Walsh, J.E., W.H. Jasperson, and B. Ross. 1985. Influence of snow cover and soil moisture on monthly air temperatures. Monthly Weather Reviews 113:756-768.

Wang, X.L., P.H. Stone, and J. Marotzke. 1999. Global thermohaline circulation. Part I: Sensitivity to atmospheric moisture transport. Journal of Climate 12:71-82.

Wang, G.L., and E.A.B. Eltahir. 2000a. Biosphere-atmosphere interaction over west Africa. II. Multiple climate equilibria. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126:1261-1280.

Wang, G.L., and E.A.B. Eltahir. 2000b. Role of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the low-frequency variability of the Sahel rainfall. Water Resources Research 36:1013-1021.

Warren, B.A. 1983. Why is no deep water formed in the North Pacific? Journal of Marine Research 41:327-347.

Watts, W.A. 1980. Regional variation in the response of vegetation to Lateglacial climatic events in Europe. In J.J. Lowe, J.M. Gray, and J.E. Robinson (eds.), Studies in the Lateglacial of Northwest Europe. Pergamon Press, Oxford, UK.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Weertman, J. 1974. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. Journal of Glaciology 13:3-11.

Weidick A., H. Oerter, N. Reeh, H. Thomsen, and L. Thorning. 1990. The recession of the inland ice margin during the Holocene climatic optimum in the Jakobshavn-Isfjord area of west Greenland. Global and Planetary Change 82(3-4):389-399.

Weiss, H., and R.S. Bradley. 2001. What drives societal collapse? Science 291:609-610.

Weiss, H., M.A. Courty, W. Wetterstrom, L. Senior, R. Meadow, F. Guichard, and A. Curnow.

1993. The genesis and collapse of third millennium North Mesopotamian civilization. Science 261(20):995-1004.

Wendler, G., and F. Eaton. 1983. On the desertification in the Sahel zone. Part 1. Ground observations. Climate Change 5:365-380.

West, J.J., M.J. Small, and H. Dowlatabadi. 2001. Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise. Climatic Change 48(2-3):317-342.

Weyant, J.P., O. Davidson, H. Dowlatabadi, J. Edmonds, M. Grubb, E.A. Parson, R. Richels, J. Rotmans, P.R. Shukla, and R.S.J. Tol. 1996. Integrated assessment of climate change: An overview and comparison of approaches and results. Pp. 367-396 in Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK.

White, W.B., and R. Peterson. 1996. An Antarctic Circumpolar Wave in surface pressure, wind, temperature, and sea ice extent. Nature 380:699-702.

Whitworth, T., B.A. Warren, W.D. Nowlin, S.B. Rutz, R.D. Pillsbury, and M.I. Moore. 1999. On the deep western-boundary current in the Southwest Pacific Basin. Progress in Oceanography 43:1-54.

Winton, M. and E.S. Sarachik. 1993. Thermohaline oscillations induced by strong steady salinity forcing of ocean general-circulation models. Journal of Physical Oceanography 23:1389-1410.

Wong, A.P.S., N.L. Bindoff, and J.A. Church. 1999. Large-scale freshening of intermediate waters in the Pacific and Indian oceans. Nature 400:440-443.

Wood, R.A., A.B. Keen, J.F.B. Mitchell, and J.M. Gregory. 1999. Changing spatial structure of the thermohaline circulation in response to atmospheric CO2 forcing in a climate model. Nature 399:572-575.

Woodhouse, C.A. ,and J.T. Overpeck. 1998. Two thousand years of drought variability in the central United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79:2693-2714.

Woodward, F.I. 1987. Climate and Plant Distribution. Cambridge University Press, UK.

World Bank. 2001. World Development Indicators, 2000. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

Wright, D.G., and T.F. Stocker. 1991. A zonally averaged ocean model for the thermohaline circulation. Part I: Model development and flow dynamics. Journal of Physical Oceanography 21:1713-1724.


Xue, Y.K., and J. Shukla. 1993. The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate: Part I. Desertification. Journal of Climate 6:2232-2245.

Xue, Y.K., M.J. Fennessy, and P.J. Sellers. 1996. The impact of vegetation properties on U.S. summer weather prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research 101:7419-7430.


Yang, R., M.J. Fennessy, and J. Shukla. 1994. The influence of initial soil wetness on medium-range surface weather forecasts. Monthly Weather Reviews 122:471-483.

Yeh, T.C., R.T. Wetherald, and S. Manabe. 1984. The effect of soil moisture on the short-term climate and hydrology change—a numerical experiment. Monthly Weather Reviews 112:474-490.

Yiou, P., K. Fuhrer, L.D. Meeker, J. Jouzel, S. Johnsen, and P.A. Mayewski. 1997. Paleoclimatic variability inferred from the spectral analysis of Greenland and Antarctic ice-core data. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:441-454.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×

Yohe, G.W., and M.E. Schlesinger. 1998. Sea-level change: the expected economic cost of protection or abandonment in the United States. Climatic Change 38:337-342.

Yu, Z., J.H. McAndrews, and U. Eicher. 1997. Middle Holocene dry climate caused by change in atmospheric circulation patterns: Evidence from lake levels and stable isotopes. Geology 25:251-254.

Yu, Z., and U. Eicher. 1998. Abrupt climate oscillations during the last deglaciation in central North America. Science 282:2235-2238.

Yueh, S.H., and R. Kwok. 1998. Arctic sea ice extent and melt onset from NSCAT observations. Geophysical Research Letters 25:4369-4372.


Zaucker, F., and W.S. Broecker. 1992. The influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin: General circulation model simulations and observations. Journal of Geophysical Research 97:2765-2773.

Zhang, Y., J.M. Wallace, and D.S. Battisti. 1997. ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. Journal of Climate 10:1004-1020.

Zielinski, G.A., P.A. Mayewski, L.D. Meeker, K. Gronvold, M.S. Germani, S. Whitlow, M.S. Twickler, and K. Taylor. 1997. Volcanic aerosol records and tephrochronology of the Summit, Greenland, ice cores. Journal of Geophysical Research 102(C12):26, 625-26, 640.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 168
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 169
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 170
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 171
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 172
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 173
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 174
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 175
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 176
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 177
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 178
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 179
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 180
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 181
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 182
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 183
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 184
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 185
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 186
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 187
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 188
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 189
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 190
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 191
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 192
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 193
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 194
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 195
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 196
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 197
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 198
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 199
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 200
Next: Appendix A Committee and Staff Biographies »
Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises Get This Book
×
Buy Hardback | $55.00 Buy Ebook | $43.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes.

Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change?

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps.

Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!