The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium, January 12, 2001 (2001)

Dr. Greenbaum was asked how China might set effective regulatory pollution standards. He replied that Chinese standards are already high by worldwide measure. In order to design appropriate standards it is necessary to measure ambient pollution levels and calculate the contributions from different sources. The problem is then how to achieve the most effective reductions in emissions. That requires deciding how to reduce levels at the present time, how to anticipate fuel and technology use in five to ten years, and how to adjust the standards as fuel use changes and new technologies become available. Dr. Heywood pointed out that the United States has had standards for 30 years, and they have been based on analysis that is able to convince more than the specialists. In the United States, the demanding standards have forced the pace of technological development. But realistically, the country must be prepared to adjust standards if they are not effective, and this has generally inspired political controversy.

Speakers were asked about PNGV goals for 2004, and whether there would be a prototype ready for the market. The answer is that program management is still unsure. The 2000 concept vehicles essentially met performance goals, but not cost goals. If production prototypes are produced in the next stage, it is unclear what the fuel economy goals will be. Similarly, U.S. emission standards were tightened during the PNGV program, and the concept cars do not meet current standards. Still, some of the technologies can be incorporated into other products, and the new vehicles can appear in the market incrementally. The program can thus be successful, even though an 80 mpg vehicle does not appear suddenly in the market.

A questioner pointed out that there is another view that the PNGV program has been less than successful in accelerating advanced technology. Some smaller foreign companies, like Toyota, have gone further, while the existence of the program has undermined public regulatory initiatives to improve fuel consumption. In some cases, the new technology has been used to make vehicles larger by, for example, being incorporated in sport utility vehicles. Further, the technology chosen by PNGV, diesel hybrid, is not the cleanest. These cars do not meet current emissions standards, which was entirely predictable from well known trends.

A question on Chinese strategy was posed. Over the next 20 years, there will be significant growth in the number of Chinese vehicles, which is already having an impact on oil imports, national economic security and air pollution. Should China proceed systematically like the United States over 40 years, or like the EU in 20 years, or jump ahead and adopt state of the art technology?

Dr. Heywood pointed out that in order to leap-frog, there must be somewhere to land, a viable technology to go to. Today there are opportunities, but no certainties. Dr. Wachs summarized the benefits to Chinese industry and the benefits to the public of increased mobility. China should take the best guess and build in financial incentives alongside standards. Others claimed that automotive technologies developed in other countries easily can be transferred if the engineering capability is present. The difficulty will be the fuel supply. The sulfur must be removed, and that may take a while. The maintenance industry also will need support.

Dr. Liu concluded the session by pointing out that the increase in fuel efficiency in the United States is offset by the preference of consumers for heavier vehicles. But the relationship of size to safety, as compared to the relationship of weight to safety, is not well understood. Possibly, a new vehicle can be developed with the safety of conventional vehicles and the benefit of weight reduction.