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Florida Bay Research Programs and Their Relation to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (2002)

Chapter: Appendix B: Definitions of Model Runs of the South Forida Water Management Model (SFWMM) and Natural System Model (NSM)

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Definitions of Model Runs of the South Forida Water Management Model (SFWMM) and Natural System Model (NSM)." National Research Council. 2002. Florida Bay Research Programs and Their Relation to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10479.
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Appendix B
Definitions of Model Runs of the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) and Natural System Model (NSM)

1995 Base (95 B or 95BSR in Figures 3 and 4) is a simulation of the South Florida Water Management system that represents the system infrastructure and operations as they were around 1995. The simulation is made using the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM). Water demands and land use are representative of those in 1995. The topography used was the best available at that time. A 31-year climatic record (1965–1995) was used in the simulation. The 1995 Base is also referred to as the current condition, or existing condition.

2050 Base (50BSR in Figure 4) is a simulation of the South Florida Water Management system that represents the likely system infrastructure and operations as they would be around 2050 without any of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) projects in place. Non-CERP Projects assumed to be complete by 2050 include Kissimmee River Restoration, the Everglades Construction Project, Herbert Hoover Dyke improvements, the Modified Water Delivery to Everglades National Park and C-111 projects, and several critical projects in the Lower East Coast area. In the SFWMM simulation of the 2050 Base projected (2050) land use and water demands were used with the same 31-year climatic record (1965–1991) as in the 1995 Base. The 2050 Base is also referred to as the future without project condition or no action alternative.

D13R is the simulation of the South Florida Water Management system with completed Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) projects in 2050, together with non-CERP projects as simulated in the 2050 Base. In the SFWMM simulation of D13R, the same projected land use and water demands as in the 2050 Base were used. Again the 31-year climatic record (1965–1991) was used. Benefits of D13R are determined by comparison with the current condition (1995 Base) and future without project condition (2050 Base). D13R4 (see Figures 3 and 4) is a scenario based on D13R that would enhance CERP performance by capturing additional water “lost” to tide.

NSM is the Natural System Model simulation that represents the hydrologic response to the pre-drainage Everglades using the same climatic inputs (1965–1995) as were used for the SFWMM. The NSM does not simulate the influences of any man-made features and uses estimates of pre-subsidence topography and historical vegetation cover. The Natural System Model has evolved as knowledge of the pre-drainage everglades has improved. The version of the NSM used to develop the CERP was NSM version 4.5F (NSM in Figure 3 and NSM45F in Figure 4). In the development of the CERP, the NSM pre-drained hydrologic response of the system was, in many cases, used as a target for hydrologic restoration under the assumption that restoration of the hydrologic response that existed prior to drainage of the system would lead to restoration of natural habitats, biota and species. . But whereas NSM water depths are typically used as CERP targets, NSM flow estimates are not necessarily used as targets because of high sensitivity of flow estimates to small changes in water depth estimates.

Source: Ken Tarboton, SFWMD, written commun., April 2002 and Richard Punnett, USACE, personal commun., July 2002. Additional information may be found at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/pld/restudy/hpm/.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Definitions of Model Runs of the South Forida Water Management Model (SFWMM) and Natural System Model (NSM)." National Research Council. 2002. Florida Bay Research Programs and Their Relation to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10479.
×
This page in the original is blank.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Definitions of Model Runs of the South Forida Water Management Model (SFWMM) and Natural System Model (NSM)." National Research Council. 2002. Florida Bay Research Programs and Their Relation to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10479.
×
Page 37
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Definitions of Model Runs of the South Forida Water Management Model (SFWMM) and Natural System Model (NSM)." National Research Council. 2002. Florida Bay Research Programs and Their Relation to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10479.
×
Page 38
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This report is a product of the Committee on Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem (CROGEE), which provides consensus advice to the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force. The Task Force was established in 1993 and was codified in the 1996 Water Resources Development Act (WRDA); its responsibilities include the development of a comprehensive plan for restoring, preserving and protecting the South Florida ecosystem, and the coordination of related research. The CROGEE works under the auspices of the Water Science and Technology Board and the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology of the National Research Council. The CROGEE's mandate includes providing the Task Force not only with scientific overview and technical assessment of the restoration activities and plans, but also providing focused advice on technical topics of importance to the restoration efforts. One such topic was to examine "the linkage between the upstream components of the greater Everglades and adjacent coastal ecosystems."

This report addresses this issue by breaking it down into three major questions:

  • What is the present state of knowledge of Florida Bay ("the Bay") on scientific issues that relate to the success of the overall CERP?
  • What are the potential long-term effects of Everglades restoration as currently designed on the nature and condition of the Bay?
  • What are the critical science questions that should be answered early in the restoration process to design a system that benefits not only the terrestrial and freshwater aquatic Everglades but the Bay as well?

This study was inspired in part by the 2001 Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Conference held on April 23-26, 2001 in Key Largo, Florida. An overlapping meeting of the CROGEE was held at the same location on April 26-28, 2001. The conference was organized by the Program Management Committee (PMC) of the Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Program. The PMC organized the conference around five questions suggested by the Florida Bay Science Oversight Panel. These questions related to circulation, salinity patterns, and outflows of the Bay; nutrients and the nutrient budget; onset, persistence and fate of planktonic algal blooms; temporal and spatial changes in seagrasses and the hardbottom community; and recruitment, growth and survivorship of higher trophic level species. Some of these issues are discussed in the present report. However, as noted earlier, this report focuses on the subset of questions that relate to linkages between the Bay and the upstream portion of the Everglades system that arose at the 2001 Florida Bay Conference.

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