Appendix
WORKSHOP AGENDA AND PARTICIPANTS
Committee on National Statistics Workshop on Reliability Issues for DoD Systems
National Academy of Sciences
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C.
Lecture Room
AGENDA
Friday, June 9
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8:00 a.m. |
Continental Breakfast |
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8:30 a.m. |
Opening Remarks |
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Nancy Spruill, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, DoD Francisco Samaniego, University of California, Davis |
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8:45 a.m. |
Reliability Test Designs to Direct Defense System Development |
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Development and management of comprehensive programs, from system concept through fielding, for the design, test, and assessment of reliability performance. |
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Ronald Glaser (Chair), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Jane Booker, Los Alamos National Laboratory, on “PREDICT: A New Approach to System Performance Prediction” Lawrence Crow, General Dynamics, on “An Integrated Reliability Growth Strategy at General Dynamics Advanced Technology Systems” Walter Hollis (Discussant), Deputy Under Secretary of the Army Arthur Fries (Discussant), Institute for Defense Analyses |
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10:30 a.m. |
Break |
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10:45 a.m. |
Recent Developments in Reliability Growth Modeling |
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Patricia Jacobs (Chair), Naval Postgraduate School Ananda Sen, Oakland University, on “Recent Developments in Reliability Growth Modeling: Duane Curve and Beyond” Donald Gaver, Naval Postgraduate School, on “Reliability Growth in Stage-wise-Functioning Systems by Failure Mode Removal” Paul Ellner (Discussant), Army Materiel System Analysis Activity |
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12:00 noon |
Lunch |
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1:00 p.m. |
Use of Statistical Modeling to Join Developmental and Operational Testing Data |
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Pooling of data from diverse information sources (e.g., laboratory and developmental testing, operational testing, field and training exercise data, simulations). |
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Asit Basu (Chair), University of Missouri-Columbia Duane Steffey, San Diego State University, on “Combining Information for Reliability Assessment” Francisco Samaniego, University of California, Davis, on |
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“Nonparametric Alternatives to Exponential Life Testing” Ernest Seglie (Discussant), Science Advisor to the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation Fred Myers (Discussant), Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics) |
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2:15 p.m. |
Estimating Reliability from Field Performance Data |
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Philip Boland (Chair), University College, Dublin William Meeker, Iowa State University, on “Extracting Information from Field-Failure and Warranty Data Bases: An Important Opportunity” Fritz Scholz, The Boeing Company, on “Assessing Reliability Growth from Field Performance Data” James Crouch (Discussant), Wright-Patterson Air Force Base |
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4:00 p.m. |
Break |
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4:15 p.m. |
Modeling Fatigue |
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Henry Block (Chair), University of Pittsburgh Samuel Saunders, Washington State University, on “Backward and Forward in the Prediction of Service-Lives” William Padgett, University of South Carolina, on “Some Cumulative Damage Approaches to Modeling Materials or System Failure” Theodore Nicholas (Discussant), United States Air Force Research Laboratory |
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5:30 p.m. |
Adjourn |
Saturday, June 10
|
8:00 a.m. |
Continental Breakfast |
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8:30 a.m. |
Reliability of Software-Intensive Systems |
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Simon Wilson (Chair), Trinity College, Dublin |
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Sidhartha Dalal, Telcordia Technologies, on “The State of Software Reliability Research” Jesse Poore, University of Tennessee, on “An Approach to Software Testing” Margaret Myers (Discussant), Director, Information Technology, Acquisition and Defense Jack Ferguson (Discussant), Software Intensive Systems |
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10:00 a.m. |
Break |
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10:15 a.m. |
Reliability Economics—Life-Cycle Costs |
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Michael Tortorella (Chair), Bell Laboratories Wallace Blischke, University of Southern California, on “Life-Cycle Costing, Reliability, and Warranty Presentation for NAS Workshop on Reliability” Frank Camm, The RAND Corporation-Washington, on “A Life Cycle Context for Reliability Assessment of DoD Systems” Allen Beckett (Discussant), Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Logistics |
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12:00 noon |
Lunch and Panel Discussion on “Implications for Future DoD Practices” |
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Francisco Samaniego (Moderator), University of California, Davis Stephen Pollock, University of Michigan Ernest Seglie, Director, Operational Test and Evaluation Marion Williams, Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Command Robert Easterling, Sandia National Laboratories Hans Mark, Director, Defense Research and Engineering |
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2:00 p.m. |
Adjourn |
PARTICIPANTS
Presenters
Allen Beckett, Principal Assistant, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Logistics and Materiel Readiness Logistics
Wallace Blischke, University of Southern California
Henry Block, University of Pittsburgh
Philip Boland, University College, Dublin
Jane Booker, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Frank Camm, The RAND Corporation
James Crouch, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
Larry Crow, General Dynamics Advanced Technology Systems
Siddhartha Dalal, Telcordia Technologies
Robert Easterling, Sandia National Laboratories
Paul Ellner, U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity
Jack Ferguson, Software Intensive Systems, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logstics)
Arthur Fries, Institute for Defense Analyses
Donald Gaver, Naval Postgraduate School
Ronald Glaser, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Walter Hollis, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of the Army (Operations Research)
Patricia Jacobs, Naval Postgraduate School
William Meeker, Iowa State University
Fred Myers, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics)
Margaret Myers, Director, Information Technology, Acquisition and Investments
Theodore Nicholas, U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory
William Padgett, University of South Carolina
Jesse Poore, University of Tennessee
Frank Samaniego, University of California, Davis
Sam Saunders, Washington State University
Friedrich Scholz, Boeing
Ernest Seglie, Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation
Ananda Sen, Oakland University
Nancy Spruill, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics)
Duane Steffey, San Diego State University
Michael Tortorella, Bell Laboratories
Marion Williams, Air Force Operational Test & Evaluation Command
Simon Wilson, Trinity College, Dublin
Invited Guests
Anthony Adessa, BMDO/TEP
Asit Basu, University of Missouri-Columbia
Michael Bell, Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation
Barry Bodt, U.S. Army Research Laboratory
Paul Bricker, Maintenance Policy Program & Resources
Mike Bridgman, Logistics Management Institute
David S. Chu, The RAND Corporation
Daniel Cork, Carnegie Mellon University
Kathleen Diegart, Sandia National Laboratories
William Eddy, Carnegie Mellon University
Robert Ernst, Naval Air Systems
Joseph Ferrara, Deputy Director, Acquisition Management
Lee H. Frame, Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation
Donald Henry, Office of Deputy Assistant Army Secretary (Research and Technology)
Paul Hoffman, Naval Air Systems Command
Charles Horton, Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation
Shane Knighton, Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Command
Paul Kvam, Georgia Institute of Technology
David Lee, Logistics Management Institute
Thomas Louis, The RAND Corporation
Milton Margolis, Logistics Management Institute
Maj. Kyle McKown, U.S. Air Force
Andy Monje, Naval Air Systems Command
Robert Nemetz, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics)
David Oliver, Office of the Secretary of Defense
David Olwell, Naval Post Graduate School
Russell S. Pimm, CSC/Nichols Research
Stephen Pollock, University of Michigan
Pete Poppe, Marine Corps Operational Test and Evaluation Activity
Shane Reese, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Philip Rodgers, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics)
Richard Sabo, Naval Air Systems Command
Michael Saboe, U.S. Army Tank Automotive, Research, Development & Engineering Center
Dennis Smallwood, U.S. Military Academy
James Streilein, U.S. Army Evaluation Center
David Thomen, Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation
Ron Wagner, Georgia Tech Research Center
Steven Whitehead, Commander, Operational Test and Evaluation Force
Daniel Willard, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of the Army (Operations Research)
Alyson Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Paul Zimmerman, Naval Air Systems Command
Staff of the Committee on National Statistics
Jamie Casey, Research Assistant
Michael Cohen, Study Director
Agnes Gaskin, Senior Project Assistant
Andrew White, Director
