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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Page 83
Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Page 84
Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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~2 Urban Population Change: A Sketch The first section of this chapter reviews the international extensions of the themes explored in the previous chapter, examining how cities occupy positions in the larger contexts of regional and global networks of trade, finance, and information. The term "globalization" is often invoked to describe the remarkable changes un- der way in communications and economic relations worldwide. The processes of globalization are surely as old as human history, but recent years have seen un- precedented developments in the speed, scale, scope, and complexity of change. In its modern forms, globalization is characterized by a rapid evolution of the in- ternational division of labor, increased trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), a quickening pace of transnational communication, and a dramatic expansion of cross-border business alliances (Cohen, 1981; Berry, Conkling, and Ray, 1997~. In the eyes of critics, the modern forms of globalization are also associated with rising inequality and social polarization. Historically and today, globalization has taken effect mainly through networks of trade. These networks link geographically distant consumers and producers, establishing relationships of identification and interdependence, and provide a ve- hicle for cultural exchange. In the modern era, flows of goods between countries offer parallel opportunities to expand trade in services. Trade is intertwined with other elements of globalization, such as movements of financial capital and highly skilled labor. Today, transnational corporations firms that operate in more than one country, whether directly or through affiliates and subsidiaries form much of the basis for the international system of trade (Sassen, 1994a). Cities have historically functioned as the nodes of such global trade networks. Indeed, it is sometimes useful to envision large cities as junctions for flows of goods, information, and people, rather than as fixed locations at which goods and services are produced. This view helps bring city networks whether transporta- tion and communication networks or networks involving finance and culture into focus (Batten, 1990~. 75

76 CITIES TRANSFORMED These are large topics, but our treatment of them must be brief. As mentioned in Chapter 1, the demographic implications of globalization are, at present, quite difficult to discern. The changes under way in trade, finance, and communication are still too recent, and their effects too seldom traced to the level of individuals and families, for a demographic accounting to be possible. In closing this first section of the chapter, we offer some speculations about the areas in which demo- graphic effects might be seen most clearly. In the following sections of the chapter, we take up the task of linking demo- graphic data to the concepts that have dominated the discussion thus far. Glob- alization may set cities in new contexts, but, as will be seen, the demographic features of their urban transitions are a mix of novel and familiar elements. We give a brief summary, describing in broad strokes the scale of recent urban change, with particular attention to the emergence of large cities in the developing world, the pace of change, and the main differences in urban experience by demographic regime and level of national income. Having sketched this background, we then return to the regional context and explore the similarities and differences among the transitions of African, Asian, and Latin American countries. These regional comparisons leave little doubt about the unevenness of globalization and the great variety of socioeconomic contexts in which urbanization is taking place. CITIES AMID GLOBAL FORCES Over the past 20 years, cities have become decidedly more international in their orientation. In a world of easier cross-border flows of information, capital, goods, and people, the firm control once exercised by nation states appears to have been loosened by deregulation, privatization, and the growth of foreign investment. As national governments adopt new forms of governance and allow markets and smaller governmental units to assume more prominent roles, cities find themselves having to redefine their positions in the international arena. As nation states step back somewhat from center stage, it becomes possible to discern an emerging transnational system in which cities and corporations are key players, operating within complex networks of relations (Taylor, 2000; Gipoulou, 19984. Increasingly, we believe, it will be membership in such networks that serves to define "global cities." Investments in infrastructure and human capital will give some cities access to strategic international circuits of exchange, allow- ing them to present themselves as viable sites for foreign direct investment. Other cities will lack the necessary capital and will be restricted to regional or domestic roles. A paradox of globalization is that, while creating more linkages and inter- dependencies, it also underscores the importance of comparative advantage at the subnational and local levels. Transnational corporations become increasingly aware of the niches where cheap and reliable labor can be found, and learn in detail of the constraints of local transport and infrastructure. Hence, when seen

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 77 from a global corporate perspective, the cities of low-income countries are likely to appear increasingly diverse (Sassen, 2002~. To appreciate the scale of the changes that are under way, consider the breath- taking physical and structural transformations occurring in some cities of Pacific Asia.i Shenzhen, the border city just north of Hong Kong, is perhaps the most remarkable example. In 1979, when it was designated a Special Economic Zone, Shenzhen was an obscure fringe settlement of some 35,000 inhabitants. Over the course of the next two decades, it rose to become a metropolis of 4 million in- habitants, boasting the highest wage levels in China, and having one of China's two stock markets and its heaviest concentration of foreign investment. The city of Pudong the part of Shanghai lying to the east of the Huangpu River has since 1990 been transformed from a constellation of villages into an urban ag- glomeration premised upon technology and innovation. Kuala Lumpur has also reinvented itself, acquiring a modern image with the construction of the 88-story Petronas Twin Towers, the starting point of a new development corridor that ex- tends 70 kilometers to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport. In these cases, countries and cities have proven themselves capable of mobi- lizing great quantities of human and physical capital in remarkably brief spans of time. Such concentrations of resources must eventually reshape patterns of mi- gration and other demographic behavior, although the forms these demographic responses will take are not yet fully apparent. In what follows, we touch briefly on several of the important developments in the globalization of cities. Financial Services and Foreign Direct Investment In the realm of finance, it appears probable that today's powerful centers New York, London, and Tokyo will continue to dominate the world markets. A1- though financial transactions can now be executed over great distances, the firms that mediate the risk of these transactions are themselves located in only a few major cities. At the regional level, the scale of investment required makes it un- likely that very many cities can soon expect to attract a critical mass of interna- tional financial firms. The regional centers of finance will probably be located in those few cities whose political and economic systems are relatively secure, and where the legal system provides effective regulation, mediating disputes, prose- cuting offenders, and providing compensation for wrongdoing. The situation of Hong Kong bears watching, because its recent change in political status has raised fears about the continuity of legal protections under Chinese rule. iThese changes are both the cause and the consequence of spectacular economic growth. In the period 1970-1990, some cities in the region registered increases in gross domestic product (GDP) in excess of 1,000 percent. These included Seoul and Tokyo, which recorded increases of 2,127 and 2,994 percent, respectively. During the same period, Hong Kong's GDP rose 15-fold, and its exports rocketed upward 27-fold (Savitch, 1996).

78 is CITIES TRANSFORMED The role of FDI, described more fully in Chapter 8, has become exceedingly .mportant in certain regions of the developing world. Such investments, which involve south-to-south flows as well as flows from northern economies, are signif- icant in several respects. They are notable for being highly concentrated in just a few developing countries, with Brazil, China, and Mexico taking about half of the current flows, and are equally notable for their absence from much of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (World Bank, 2002a). Foreign investments are also spa- tially concentrated within countries, although the favored locations have tended to change with time. In an earlier era, FDI was often concentrated in extractive in- dustries and natural resources, but more recently these investments have gone into manufacturing and urban locations (for the case of Indonesia, see Douglass, 1997~. The increasing prominence of FDI reflects the extent to which international firms headquartered in high-income countries now prefer to operate with multiple international affiliates, partners, and subcontractors. In some accounts, as will be discussed, these collaborative efforts are said to facilitate the transfer and local adaptation of new technologies. International networks of emigrants are also be- lieved to provide important conduits for foreign investment and technology trans- fer (Rauch,2001~. For instance, a study of Fujian province shows that its Chinese emigrants have been a major source not only of capital, but also of commercial information and technical know-how (Yeung and Chu, 2000~. Age-old Chinese business networks are being refitted to the needs of a globalizing era, tapping re- sources that flow through formal financial systems (Olds and Young, l999~. Emerging Regional Networks In Pacific Asia, the emergence of several "growth triangles" testifies to the in- creasing importance of regional linkages. Figure 3-1 depicts these economic sys- tems, which can present unique cross-border challenges to governance. Singa- pore, for example, has sought to establish a regional growth network with links to the Riau Islands in Indonesia and Malaysia's province of Johor (Macleod and McGee, 1996; Young, 2000~. Another growth triangle is developing in Southern China. It incorporates Fujian and Guangdong provinces on the mainland with Hong Kong and Taiwan, establishing a web of relations in which emigrant net- works are much involved. Figure 3-1 depicts several other regional networks, which differ in maturity and depth of integration (Yeung,2000~. The Pacific Asia region is also witnessing the formation of "urban corridors" that connect cities across the region. Perhaps the best example of this is the Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo (BESETO) "ecumenopolis," which stretches for 1500 kilometers and connects 77 cities of more than 200,000 inhabitants each (Choe,1996~. Markets and Volatility Regional and international markets are the conduits through which new technolo- gies and demands are conveyed to city populations. Open borders also put local

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE H:~l A J —. ~ A:—- l l~lO~NGQ:L7A a,' . = of. ,~ N ' ' - 'N. - S A: . A `^ ~ :r _ r a: `. ~ - . A. ~ . _ , ~ H I N A _ Greater Ittleliong Subregion ~ ^~/ EAST CHlW~ SEE I:/ ~ ~ ~ hi. ( it An\ :South-ern China i ~ Triangle ~ ~ :! 1~ ~ Off ,/ : Taiwan i ~ :~ ~ ~ ~ 1: Am: if: - , ad, . r _ Hangs Kon~5~ w :- `, `~ - , j ~ ~ ~ SO:~-J~ bAC~S ~ ~ ~ Cff~ l~ \~ s, v~'~' ~ Nx :t ~ \, ~ ~ - ~- i'- '-~ ~ Nx ~ TH~A1:LANG ~' >:~` 1 ~ ~ [.t ~ i ~ : Vl~FTMAM \; :6 —, ~umerl F~iver ~ J ~ Triangle 4~~ ~ —~_ ·,'~,, 4~ ~ ~ ~ ) N-~:~/ ~ - ~ ~' ~ 1: ~! W~ Wr ::KDR~EA l ~ ~ ~ .~'N . ~ ~ ),~S~ :KOR~E:A N~ ~ Cj ~ ~ 5~. ~ t ~ f— f ~, - : =: gPH 1~1 PPI N E~$~ ~ ~ h F~ C1~C O-=A N :U! N~ f— --V—~ ~ ~i ~v ~ . 1 . . ~ O ~ )~\ ~ ~AMBoDi~ ~ I ~° ~ ~ ~< ^) _ - \ .. ~ Y ~ ~ ~ _~n . ,J1 ~ J ~ J. ~ >~. :V~ ~ . r: ~: ~ sr ~ 7~ ~ ~ Y _.~` /: ~ ~ ~' (:~ ~: T ~ _4,~ ~ ~ J I ~ ~ `:~ i ~r ~ r~ ~ ~ :' %, ; ~ ~ ~r ~ 0 f ~ · , ~_~ f ~ ~ _! ~ ~ 11~ r ~ ~ ~ #: ~ If ~ : U J: Ji J f <tC ~. .`T f , - ~7= <:~/ Brunei l~arussal:am-ir~dc~nesia" ~ ~ N~~, ~ ~ \ f 1 - 8RUNEI ~ ~ .49 J[~ M:alaysia-PhiDppiries ~J: ~ —t ~—\~ 1 N ~ O~ W-E $ ~1 A ~ ~ : ~ ~ ., `~. ~;~ ~ ,, - ~: ,~ dSR~ (;iro~vth: Tna-ngle 1._ I:ndone$ia-f~talays'a-Thail:and~Grc, - th Tri;,ngle 0 FIGURE 3-1 Regional urban linkages: The Asian "triangles." SOURCE: Yeung (2000~. 79 East ASEJ41Y Grov~th~ Are~ ~i ~ ~: ~ I: NE,N Gi;)l:N~) ~i~ ~< ~; i `0430 9~r000 :km :1 1 ~:

80 CITIES TRANSFORMED firms at risk of losing their markets to imports. As discussed in Chapter 8, in poor countries the dismantling of barriers to trade presents efficient firms with new opportunities, but can subject inefficient firms to withering international compe- tition. Because cities are the gateways between national and international mar- kets and because they are often the sites of inefficient firms dating to the import- substitution era, city populations can be exposed more openly than rural popula- tions to the risks of market engagement. Perhaps the greatest volatility and potential for contagion is seen in world markets in stocks, bonds, and currencies (World Bank, 2002a). The computerized, round-the-clock operation of these markets means that when a problem surfaces in one major market, it can very quickly affect others. The global stock market collapse of 1987 provided an early warning of the contagiousness of financial shocks, as did the Mexican financial crises of 1982 and 1994. The most serious episode of recent years, however, took place in the latter part of 1997, when in the span of a few months most countries along the western Pacific Rim found themselves in the grip of financial and political crisis. Chapters 6 and 8 explore the demographic and economic implications of such crises. World Cities With the unfolding of new forms of global economic relations, urban scholars have been exploring new ways to categorize cities. Over the past two decades, there has been an outpouring of research on the roles played by cities and systems of cities in the global economy (e.g., Knox and Taylor, 1995; Young, 2000; Sassen, 2000, 2001b; Taylor and Walker, 2001~. In the formative stages of the debate, Hall (1966) and Friedmann and Wolff (1982) drew attention to a class of cities- termed "world cities" that assume pivotal roles in the global economy. New York, London, and Tokyo occupy the uppermost tier because of their dominance of finance and specialized services, their importance as sites of production and in- novation, and their role as markets for new products and services (Sassen,2001b). Friedmann (1986) identifies 30 cities with claims to world city status, although arranging them in well-ordered hierarchies has proven to be difficult (Friedmann, 1995~. The common thread in this research is the idea that a few cities form the dominantloci in today's global economy, contributing disproportionately to the in- ternationalization of capital, production, services, and even culture (Yeung,1995~. As cities are becoming more interdependent, they are also becoming more self-consciously competitive. This competition is conducted partly through eco- nomic investment strategies, but it also has something of a marketing and pro- motional aspect. Some city competitions, such as those for the World Cup, the Olympics, and the Asian Games, are meant to capture the headlines. These events are opportunities to project positive city images. As cities aspire to compete in regional and global arenas, they also invest in building human capital, moderniz- ing conference facilities, upgrading physical infrastructure, beautifying the built

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 81 environment, and protecting the natural environment. In globalized settings, a city's comparative advantage lies not only in the tangible resources it can offer, but also in its sets of networks and contacts (Gipoulou, 1998~. As cities prepare themselves for competition, their municipal governments can help create environ- ments in which business firms can explore new networking opportunities.2 Demographic Implications? The full demographic implications of these developments are, at this point, still difficult to discern. As cities undertake ambitious investment plans, human capital and social infrastructure figure prominently among their strategic themes. Deci- sions to invest in schools, transportation, and faster communication undoubtedly raise urban productivity and can serve to better integrate rural areas. These in- vestments also generate new types of inequality, benefiting some groups while displacing others. It is reasonable to think that patterns of migration will be re- shaped in response. If capital accumulation and new technology raise the returns to schooling, this may encourage families to shift to reproductive strategies of lower fertility and higher education per child. The implications of globalization for smaller cities are potentially disturbing. If capital is diverted from smaller cities to prepare larger cities for their global debuts, significant costs for many of the developing world's urban dwellers could result. When judged in relation to present resources, the challenges faced by small cities in a globalizing era may well be proportionately greater than those faced by megacities (Hall and Pfeiffer,2000~. KEY DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES OF TO URBAN TRANSITION By the above account, the economic and social environments facing today's cities have many novel and unprecedented features. Is the urban transition equally novel in its demography? The transitions now under way differ in many respects from the experiences of Europe and the United States in the first half of the twen- tieth century. They also have much in common with these earlier transitions (Brockerhoff, 2000; Hall and Pfeiffer, 2000; Sassen, 2001a; Young, 2000~. The scale of change the absolute numbers of people involved is clearly unprece- dented, as are the typical rates of growth of total urban populations. It is less certain that the demographic components of growth differ much from historical experience. Not enough evidence remains in the record to separate the share of 2Hong Kong's recent economic success has owed much to its enterprising and resourceful business- men, who have been extending the city-state's economic reach. For instance, Huchison Whampoa, one of the most successful listed corporations in the territory, has made port and technology investments in 24 countries, from which the bulk of its earnings is derived (Young, 1999). Some 35 percent of Hong Kong's gross national product has been derived from revenues from trade support activities situated outside its borders (Hong Kong Trade Development Council, 1998).

82 CITIES TRANSFORMED natural increase in historical urban growth (the balance of urban births against deaths) from that of net migration and territorial reclassification. The changes in the urban percentages of today's developing countries, rapid as they may appear to be, are not at all unlike the historical precedents. Urbanization does appear to be taking place at generally lower levels of per capita income than in the historical experience, and in the case of Africa, may have become decoupled from indus- trialization. Some of these empirical regularities are traceable to national-level demographic regimes, which can differ a great deal from the regimes that were in place in the histories of developed countries. Before we describe the demographic features of today's urban transition, a word of explanation is needed on the ways in which demographers measure urban levels and trends. We have already mentioned the share of urban growth due to natural increase and migration, a measure to which demographers give consider- able attention. Four additional measures are also employed, and although they are quite distinct in meaning, their labels are sufficiently similar to invite confusion. The four measures are (1) the absolute annual increase in urban (or city) popula- tion size, (2) the urban (or city) population growth rate, (3) the level of urbaniza- tion, and (4) the rate of urbanization. The first of these is commonly described as a measure of scale, an indicator of the numbers of people involved in urban growth. Of course, the annual increase is affected by the urban growth rate, but growth rates are measures of proportional rather than absolute change. The level of ur- banization is the percentage of a country's population that lives in its cities and towns. This is to be distinguished from the rate of urbanization, which is defined in two ways: either as the growth rate of the urban percentage (we prefer this def- inition) or as the absolute annual change in the urban percentage. It is also impor- tant to maintain a distinction between the growth of the total urban population and that of individual city populations. Total urban growth can be distributed across individual cities, and thus across a range of city sizes, in many different ways. In describing the main demographic features of the urban experience, we draw extensively on the estimates and projections of the United Nations Population Division. In so doing, we are mindful of the problems in concepts and measures that plague the study of urban change. As will be seen in Chapter 4, the data series available to the United Nations suffer from many limitations and inconsistencies, and the Population Division cannot resolve all of these. For instance, the United Nations cannot impose on its member countries a uniform definition of urban areas, and this fact of life renders problematic all cross-country comparisons of urban levels and trends. Nevertheless, for present purposes to identify the broad features these data will suffice. The Scale of Change The sheer number of new urban residents gives perhaps the clearest indication of the challenge facing governments and urban planners in poor countries. As

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE TABLE 3-1 Population Size and Growth, Urban and Rural, by Region 83 Growth Rate (percent) Midyear Population (millions) 1950- 1975- 2000- Region 1950 1975 2000 2030 1975 2000 2030 Urban World total 751 1,543 2,862 4,981 2.9 2.4 1.8 High-income 359 562 697 825 1.8 0.9 0.6 countries Middle- and 392 981 2,165 4,156 3.7 3.2 2.2 low-income countries Asia 244 592 1,376 2,679 3.5 3.4 2.2 Africa 32 102 295 787 4.6 4.2 3.3 Europe 287 455 534 540 1.8 0.6 0.04 Latin America 70 198 391 608 4.2 2.7 1.5 and Caribbean North America 110 180 243 335 2.0 1.2 1.0 Oceania 8 15 231 32 2.5 1.7 1.1 Rural World total 1,769 2,523 3,195 3,289 1.4 0.9 0.1 High-income 219 187 184 139 - 0.6 - 0.07 - 0.9 countries Middle- and 1,550 2,336 3,011 3,151 1.6 1.0 0.2 low-income countries Asia 1,155 1,805 2,297 2,271 1.8 1.0 - 0.04 Africa 188 304 498 702 1.9 2.0 1.1 Europe 261 221 193 131 - 0.7 - 0.5 - 1.3 Latin America 97 124 127 116 1.0 0.1 - 0.3 and Caribbean North America 62 64 71 61 0.1 0.4 - 0.5 Oceania 5 6 8 10 0.7 1.2 0.7 NOTE: High-income countries have gross national income per capita of $9,266 or more based on World Bank estimates. SOURCES: United Nations (2002a); World Bank (2002b). discussed in Chapter 1, the urban population of the world is projected to increase from 2.86 billion in 2000 to 4.98 billion by 2030, with the total for all devel- oping countries reaching 4.16 billion (see Table 3-1~. In these countries, urban growth rates have ranged over time from spectacular to merely alarming levels. The period from 1950 to 1975 saw rates of urban growth of 3.7 percent across the developing world; had these rates persisted to 2000, the total urban population would have grown to six times what it was in 1950, with consequences that can only be imagined. Fortunately, the growth rates did decline, falling to 3.2 percent

84 CITIES TRANSFORMED from 1975 to 2000, and further declines, to 2.2 percent, are anticipated for the next 30 years. As can be seen in the table, although they have faded away in Latin America, high rates of urban population growth are still characteristic of Africa, and African growth rates are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future. Large Cities Increases in total urban populations can have different spatial manifestations; in theory, a rapid increase in the total might be accommodated by the very rapid replication of small cities. But perhaps it is not surprising that urban growth has generally been expressed in the number and average size of large cities. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, Beijing (then Peking) was the only city in the world with a million or more residents (Chandler, 1987), and at the advent of the twentieth century, there were only 16 cities of this size. By 1950, however, the number of such cities had risen to 86, and, as can be seen in Figure 3-2, there are about 400 such cities today. For the next 15 years, the United Nations antici- pates the addition of a further 150 cities to the list of those with at least a million residents. The average size of the world's largest cities is also growing. In 1800 the world's largest hundred cities averaged only 165,000 in population; today that average exceeds 6 million (Chandler, 1987; United Nations, 2002a). The very upper end of the city size distribution is occupied by the megacities, which are conventionally defined as agglomerations with populations of 10 mil- lion or more. These cities have also become more numerous and considerably 400 - 300 - u) : ° 200- z 100 - O- I~ l High-lncome Countries ~ Low- and Middle-lncome Countries ~ ............... - _ _ ............... ~ ............... ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ~ ~ ~ 1950 1975 2000 2015 Year FIGURE 3-2 Number of cities with a million residents or more, 1950-2015. SOURCES: United Nations (2002a); World Bank (2001~.

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE TABLE 3-2 Number of Urban Areas and Total Urban Population by Size, 1950-2015 85 City Size World total 10 million or more 5to 10 million 1 to 5 million 500,000 to 1 million Fewer than n.a. 500,000 Number of Cities 1950 1975 2000 2015 Urban Population (in thousands) 1950 1975 2000 2015 1 5 16 21 7 16 23 37 75 174 348 496 106 248 417 507 n.a. n.a. n.a. 12,339 42,121 144,335 75,134 481,455 68,118 224,988 340,497 122,107 331,576 176,414 169,164 263,870 674,571 290,113 960,329 354,448 844,296 1,502,920 1,950,323 High-income countries 10 million or 1 2 4 4 12,339 35,651 67,403 70,641 more 5to 10 million 1 to 5 million 500,000 to 1 million Fewer than 500,000 4 38 32 n.a. 7 5 64 81 28 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6 95 n.a. n.a. 26,389 76,504 24,138 n.a. 54,550 37,650 45,359 n.a. 183,635 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 211,578 n.a. n.a. Middle- and low-income countries 10 million or 0 3 12 17 0 32,467 157,585 269,856 more 5to 10 million 1 to 5 million 40 110 267 401 500,000 to 1 74 220 n.a. n.a. million Fewer than n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 500,000 NOTE: n.a. means not available. SOURCE: United Nations (2002a). 3 9 18 31 15,732 67,831 50,996 67,557 n.a. n.a. n.a. 131,514 490,936 n.a. n.a. 218,511 748,751 n.a. n.a. larger in average size. Tables 3-2 and 3-3 show how the number, size, and geo- graphic distribution of the world's largest cities have changed over time. To better portray the trends, Table 3-3 lists all cities with populations in excess of 5 million. In 1950, there were only 8 cities in the world with populations of 5 million or more. At that time, New York, London, and Tokyo were the world's largest agglomerations, containing 12.3 million, 8.7 million, and 6.9 million residents, respectively. Cities such as Mumbai (formerly Bombay), Mexico City, and Rio de Janeiro were still relatively small, each having about 2.9 million residents.

86 CITIES TRANSFORMED TABLE 3-3 Urban Agglomerations with 5 Million People or More, 1950-2015 Region 1950 1970 2000 2015 High-income countries Europe Paris Paris Paris Paris Rhein-Ruhr Rhein-Ruhr Rhein-Ruhr Rhein-Ruhr London London London London Milan North America New York New York New York New York Los Angeles Los Angeles Los Angeles Chicago Chicago Chicago Toronto Asia Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Osaka Osaka Osaka Hong Kong Hong Kong Middle- and low-income countries Asia Shanghai Africa Latin America Buenos Aires and the Caribbean Europe Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Seoul Bombay Calcutta Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Seoul Bombay Calcutta Bangalore Delhi Hyderabad Madras Wuhan Jakarta Teheran Istanbul Bangkok Metro Manila Karachi Lahore Dhaka Cairo Cairo Lagos Kinshasa Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mexico City Moscow Moscow Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mexico City Lima Santiago Bogota Moscow Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Seoul Bombay Calcutta Bangalore Delhi Hyderabad Madras Wuhan Jakarta Teheran Istanbul Bangkok Metro Manila Karachi Lahore Dhaka Kabul Chongqing Shenyang Pune Chittagong Riya& Baghdad Jidda Hanoi Ho Chi Minh Ahmedabad Surat Yangon Bandung Cairo Lagos Kinshasa Addis Ababa Luanda Abidjan Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mexico City Lima Santiago Bogota Guatemala City Belo Horizonte Moscow SOURCE: United Nations (2002a).

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 87 By 1975, there were 21 cities with more than 5 million people and 5 massive urban agglomerations with more than 10 million: Tokyo, New York, Shanghai, Mexico City, and Sao Paulo. Today there are 39 cities with populations estimated at 5 million or more, and 16 have surpassed the 10 million mark. Its 12.3 million residents made the New York City of 1950 the largest city in the world; a city of that size would not rank among the world's 10 largest today. Although additional large agglomerations have emerged in the high-income countries, the balance has clearly tipped to the developing world.3 United Nations projections indicate that between 2000 and 2015, some 19 cities will be added to the total of those with at least 5 million residents; only 1 of these will be located in a high-income country (United Nations, 2002a). Among the world's 30 largest urban agglomerations in 2015, 18 are expected to be found in Asia, 6 in Latin America, 3 in Africa, and the remaining 3 elsewhere. It is anticipated that each of them will house more than 8 million residents, with the biggest 3 (Tokyo, Dhaka, and Mumbai) projected to contain more than 22 million residents apiece. The percentage of the national population living in large cities is especially high in Latin America, where some 32 percent of the population resides in cities with a least a million residents. By 2015, almost 38 percent of the population of this region will live in such cities (United Nations, 2002a). This is a much higher percentage than is found in either Africa or Asia; by 2015, the latter regions are expected to have only 15 and 19 percent of their populations, respectively, living in million-plus cities (United Nations, 2002a). In many developing countries, a high percentage of the national population lives in the country's largest city, which is usually its capital. This is not gener- ally the case in high-income countries, whose urban populations tend to be more spatially dispersed. Some 17 Latin American countries have 15 percent or more of their national populations in their largest city, and in 8 of these, that city houses more than one-quarter of the national population. In Africa, there are 9 countries with more than 15 percent of their populations in the largest city (in Libya and Congo, the figure is more than 30 percent). And in Asia, 15 countries have at least 15 percent of their total populations in the largest city, although 1 of these countries is Singapore, a city state. Chapter 1 drew attention to a feature of large cities that is often overlooked: they generally grow more slowly than small cities. It is not at all uncommon to find small cities and towns growing at double-digit rates, but rarely do cities of several million inhabitants grow by more than 5 per cent per annum, and their 3A list of the 10 largest cities in the world in 1950 contained 7 cities from the developed world, including all of the world's 5 largest: New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, and Moscow. Today, the largest urban agglomerations in the world are mainly in the south. According to the latest United Nations data, for 2000, 7 of the world's 10 largest cities are in middle- or low-income countries, and 3 of the world's 5 largest cities perhaps more accurately called urban agglomerations are in the south: Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Mumbai (the other 2 are Tokyo and New York). Cities in Europe such as London and Paris are now dwarfed in demographic terms by cities such as Calcutta, Dhaka, Delhi, Karachi, Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, and Mexico City.

88 CITIES TRANSFORMED 0.08 - 0.06 - Cal At: ~ 0.04- . 0.02 - 0.00 - ,: :^ /1_ i'. Beijing ~ Shanghai {} Tianjin · Jakarta ~ Manila · Seoul Bangkok \\ ~ ~ ~~: ~_^ 1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 Year FIGURE 3-3 Selected city growth rates in East and Southeast Asia, 1950-1995. SOURCE: United Nations (2001~. growth is typically much slower than this (Hardoy, Mitlin, and Satterthwaite, 2001~. The link between city size and growth can be seen in Figure 3-3, which shows how the growth rates of some of Asia's large cities have declined over time as their total populations have increased. (The trends also reflect the declines un- der way in national population growth rates, as will be discussed shortly, and of course city growth rates may decline when new growth occurs just beyond the official boundaries.) Most of today's largest cities grew far more rapidly several decades ago. Indeed, for cities such as Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires, one has to go back to the late nineteenth or early twentieth century to find the most rapid epochs of growth (Hardoy, Mitlin, and Satterthwaite, 2001~. The point that large cities tend to grow more slowly is often lost in accounts that stress the growth of the total urban population in the largest of the city size classes. As the United Nations (1980) warns, the growth rate of the largest city size class is a misleading indicator of typical rates of growth of large cities themselves. Consider the number of people living in agglomerations of 10 million or more, which rose from 68 million in 1975 to 225 million in 2000 (Table 3-2~. This growth was partly the result of a piling up of population in the largest size class, as cities having populations under the 10 million threshold in 1975 passed over that threshold between 1975 and 2000. City size classes can be useful indi- cators for some purposes, but it is individual city growth rates that more directly confront urban planners and others who must arrange for service delivery. Rapidly growing megacities are not limited to Asia, Africa, and Latin America. That cities such as Shanghai, Buenos Aires, and Calcutta grew from

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 89 between 4 and 5 million in 1950 to around 13 million today does not greatly dis- tinguish their experience from that of Los Angeles over the same period of time. The rates of growth of these cities are considerably slower than the rates seen in such U.S. cities as Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, and Phoenix (Satterthwaite, 1996a). To be sure, some of today's megacities have experienced high rates of population growth over the last quarter century. Dhaka and Lagos, for example, may well have grown at rates of 7 and 6 percent, respectively, from the 1980s to the early 1990s, although the record is too incomplete for this to be verified. But these are the exceptions. Among the 16 megacities of today, only 3 Dhaka, Delhi, and Karachi grew at rates consistently above 3 percent per annum during the 1980s and 1990s. The others experienced moderate or low growth, with rates under 2 per- cent. The United Nations projects that over the next 15 years, only 4 megacities- Dhaka, Delhi, Jakarta, and Karachi will experience growth rates of more than 3 percent per year, while 9 will see annual growth rates under 1 percent. Components of Growth: Natural Increase and Migration Observers of rapid city growth are often tempted to think of migration as the dominant demographic factor. Demographers, however, have long emphasized the contribution of natural increase to urban growth. Reclassification, whereby urban status is conferred on formerly rural residents and territory, also deserves consideration. One type of reclassification occurs when a settlement passes be- yond a minimum size or density threshold, thereby qualifying to be termed an urban place. A second type occurs when a government changes its definition of "urban," as did the United States in 1950 and China in the 1980s. Cities can also annex neighboring territory. Where natural increase is concerned, urban growth in developing countries is being driven by birth and death rates that hardly resemble those of 100 to 150 years ago, when Europe and North America were urbanizing. Today's fertility and mor- tality rates generate (stable) rates of national population growth that often ex- ceed 1 percent annually. Western historical populations seldom saw growth that rapid their rates were usually on the order of 1 percent and below (Livi Bacci, 1997~. High rates of national population growth are transmitted to urban growth, with the connection being direct in the case of urban natural increase and indirect, through migration, for rural increase. The contribution of migration to urban growth The most recent effort to separate natural increase from other components of urban growth is that of Chen, Valente, and Zlotnik (1998~. This research, which draws on censuses from Africa, Latin America, and Asia, covers 35 pairs of censuses in the 1960s, some 39 pairs in the 1970s, and 26 in the 1980s. Table 3-4 summarizes

go CITIES TRANSFORMED TABLE 3-4 United Nations Estimates of the Contributions of Migration and Reclassification to Urban Growth in Developing Countries Migration and Reclas- sification Census Percentage Source Pairs Decade (Median) Range United Nations 39 1950s 37.2 7.3-61.9 (1980) Chen, Valente, and 35 1960s 40.7 8.8-77.4 Zlotnik (1998) 39 1970s 43.2 13.2-65.6 26 1980s 40.1 6.6—71.9 a These data include estimates for China, whose migrant share is 71.9 percent. the findings.4 A first point to note is that the Chen et al. analysis reconfirms earlier estimates of the share of urban growth due to migration and reclassifi- cation (United Nations, 1980), which put their combined contribution at about 40 percent in the median country. The remaining part of urban growth roughly 60 percent is due to urban natural increase. The Chen et al. findings underscore a point made repeatedly by demographers: both migration and natural increase make substantial contributions to urban growth. The case of China, for which the migrant share is estimated at 71.9 percent, is something of an outlier. The estimates assembled by Chen, Valente, and Zlotnik (1998) permit an ex- amination of trends in migration shares for some countries. In Latin America, the region in this sample best covered by censuses, there has been a slight shift down- ward in the share of urban growth due to migration. This has occurred despite the decline in natural increase in the region, perhaps because of a contemporaneous decline in the rural out-migration rate. Rural-to-urban migration rates Are modern rates of rural-to-urban migration unusual by historical standards? Relying on indirect evidence, Preston (1979) conjectures that migration rates in Western countries must have been somewhat higher a century ago than they are in developing countries today. However, the United Nations (1980: Figure III) examines estimates for 11 developing countries that suggest increases in rural-to- urban migration rates with time. Probing further into its small sample, the United Nations finds that migration rates tend to be higher in developing countries with 4The method used to generate these estimates is described in Chapter 4. Note that estimates for Puerto Rico and Israel are excluded from Table 3-4.

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE - 2.5- Q `~ 2.0— it: o Hi, 1.5— of 1.0— l it: 0.5 - 0.0- 1 1 1 Africa - /Latin America 1 960s 1 970s Decade FIGURE 3-4 Estimates of rural-to-urban migration rates, 1960s-1980s. 91 1 980s higher levels of income per capita, suggesting that with economic development may come a greater spatial dispersion of economic opportunities. Chen, Valente, and Zlotnik (1998: Table 2-7) provide updated estimates of rural-to-urban migration rates for a selection of countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. These estimates are shown in Figure 3-4. As can be seen, the African trend is distinct: on this continent, rates of rural-to-urban migration have declined over the three decades shown in the figure. This trend would be surpris- ing given Africa's relatively low level of urbanization, but for the 1980s, at least, it may have been the result of the decade's economic crises and retrenchments that reduced the attractions of cities.5 The Asian trend is in the opposite direction: here the migration rate is low but increasing. (The Asian estimate for the 1980s includes China; if China were excluded, the estimate for that period would rise to 1.37 percent.) In Latin America, the region exhibiting the highest migration rates, the data series indicate that a decline in migration began in the 1980s, this being, perhaps, yet another reflection of the economic crises of that decade. 5Bocquier and Traore (1998) find evidence of substantial urban-to-rural migration flows in West Africa, but the cross-sectional data available to them shed no light on trends. A study of 14 sub- Saharan African cities during 1960-1985 finds that the proportion of city growth due to migration fell over the period, and city growth rates also declined (Makannah, 1990).

92 TABLE 3-5 Estimates of the Rate of Urbanization in More-Developed and Less-Developed Countries CITIES TRANSFORMED Geographic Area MDCs, 1875-1925 LDCs, 1950-2000 United States, 1790-2000 Predicted Annual Change in Urban Percentage Unweighted Population-Weighted 0.431 0.416 0.390 0.457 0.402 NOBLE: The figures shown are coefficients on time (measured annually) in a simple regression of the country's urban percentage on time. The Rate of Urbanization Does the current rate of urbanization differ from historical experience? To pursue this question, we assembled data on urbanization levels by decade for 7 of today's high-income countries in the period 1875 to 1925, and compared their rates of urbanization with those of 17 low- and middle-income countries in the 1950- 2000 period.6 Different starting points and urban definitions render comparisons of urbanization levels problematic, but we believe useful comparisons of the rate of urbanization are nonetheless possible. Table 3-5 shows that, on average, the high-income populations increased their urbanization levels by about 0.39 percentage points annually from 1875 to 1925. In the modern era, the low- and middle-income countries exhibit only a slightly higher pace of urbanization of 0.457 points per annum. When we repeat this analysis weighting the data by country population size see the second column of Table 3-5 the present-day rates of urbanization move even closer to the 1875- 1925 historical experience. For the United States, a longer time series on urbanization is available, extend- ing from the first census in 1790 to the present.7 Across the full span of these data, the average annual rate of urbanization is again about 0.4 percentage points. On closer scrutiny these data reveal eras of more rapid urbanization (the mid- to late nineteenth century) and eras when the pace of urbanization slowed (the 1970s and 1980s). Yet when viewed over the nation's 200-year history, U.S. urbanization rates are seen to fall well within the historical bounds. These analyses strongly reconfirm the findings of Preston (1979) and the United Nations (1980~: the rate of urbanization experienced by today's developing 6The high-income countries include Canada, France, Germany (entered separately for East and West during partition), Italy, Japan, Russian Federation (including Soviet Union), Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States. Data for Germany and Russia (former Soviet Union) were merged. Data are from World Bank and United Nations sources. We include from 40 to 50 annual observations per country. The low- and middle-income set includes Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Congo, Egypt. Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Russian Federation, and South Africa. 7 Urban definitions have changed in the United States, most notably in 1950, and territory has been reclassified, but this should not seriously compromise inferences about the long-term trend.

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 93 countries is much like that experienced by developed countries a century ago. Be- tween 1975 and 2000, the percentage of the population living in urban areas in developing countries grew from 29 to 41 percent, a change remarkably similar to the experience recorded by the more-developed world during the first quarter of the twentieth century (Brockerhoff,2000~. But if the rate of urbanization is simi- lar, the typical rate of urban growth is much more rapid than what was seen in the Western experience. Urbanization Without Development? Urban growth is not in itself a cause for alarm. The pace of urbanization is usu- ally closely associated with that of industrialization and economic growth. As countries develop, their economies undergo predictable changes, the relative im- portance of agriculture declining while that of manufacturing and services rises. Industrialization and economic growth are almost always accompanied by urban- ization (World Bank, 2000a), and urbanization can be viewed as a measure of progress toward industry and services (Davis, 1965~. Furthermore, as we have argued, there is good reason to think that urbanization itself stimulates economic growth. Viewed in this way, moderate rates of urban population growth might be taken as emblems of success. In some parts of the world, however, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, cities have been growing without a concomitant expansion of economic activity. In Africa, high rates of city growth owe more to high rates of national population growth than to economic development. On this point a comparison of Africa with Southeast Asia may be instructive. At first glance their urbanization experiences appear to have been remarkably similar over the past 35 years. In 1950, some 14.7 percent of Africa's population lived in urban areas, as did 14.8 percent of the population of Southeast Asia. The level of urbanization then rose in Africa, reaching 20.8 percent in 1965 and 37.2 percent in 2000. Meanwhile Southeast Asia recorded nearly identical changes, with its level of urbanization reaching 19.0 percent in 1965 and 37.5 percent in 2000 (United Nations, 2002a). But if the urban percentages rose in parallel, the economic experiences of these regions could hardly have been more different. Incomes per capita in Southeast Asia have shot up, while in Africa they have stagnated or declined (World Bank, 2000c). As the World Bank (2000a: 130) observes, ". . . cities in Africa are not serving as engines of growth and structural transformation. Instead they are part of the cause and a major symptom of the economic and social crises that have enveloped the continent." National Demographic Regimes Since the middle of the twentieth century, the demographic regimes prevailing in most developing countries have been thoroughly reconfigured. Soon after the end of World War II, rapid declines in mortality occurred throughout much of the

94 CITIES TRANSFORMED developing world, due largely to the use of Western drugs and medical practices. Gains in life expectancy that took 50 or 100 years to achieve in the developed world required little more than a decade or two in the developing world (National Research Council, 2000~. The beginnings of a dramatic change in fertility in developing countries can be traced back to the 1960s, albeit with considerable re- gional variation (National Research Council, 2000; Caldwell and Caldwell,2001~. In 1950, women in the developing world gave birth to about 6 children, on aver- age, over the course of a reproductive lifetime. By 1990-1995, this figure had fallen to 3.3 children per woman in all developing countries combined, a decline of nearly half from the level at midcentury. Commenting on the modern transi- tions, Bongaarts and Watkins (1996: 653) note, "The pace of fertility decline in the developing world as a whole has been substantially more rapid than observed in Europe around the turn of this [twentieth] century...." Speedy declines in mortality and fertility can bring substantial economic ben- efits. Declining fertility has been credited with a major contribution to the high growth rates of income per capita experienced by South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the former Hong Kong territory. With lower fertility comes an increase in the share of working-age persons in the population. Even if income per worker remains constant, this increase in the working percent- age will be expressed in more rapid growth in income per capita.8 Lower fertility may also ease the task of accumulating human and physical capital. It results in slower growth in the number of school-age children, which in turn permits an in- crease in educational investments per child. Moreover, reduced age dependency ratios can encourage higher national savings rates and reduce the need for certain types of public expenditure (see Mason, Merrick, and Shaw, 1999~. Cities are full participants in these national demographic transitions, and in some cases are thought to take leading roles (Shapiro and Tambashe, 2001~. Be- cause urban fertility rates are lower than rural rates, and cityward migration occurs disproportionately among the young, urban age structures are even more concen- trated in the productive (and reproductive) ages than are those of national popu- lations. Examples of this distinctive age structure are provided in Chapter 4. It may be that the economic "bonus" delivered by changes in age structure is largely an urban phenomenon, due to earlier and steeper declines in mortality and fertil- ity in urban areas. Unfortunately, time-series data on the evolution of urban and rural vital rates and age structures were not available to the panel the time spans covered by the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are too short for such changes to be clearly discerned and we are left to speculate about the urban role in national demographic transitions. Can examination of national data shows substantial variation in the age dependency ratios among countries that are moving through the fertility transition at different rates (Casterline, 1999). The swings in age structure are wider when an abrupt fertility decline follows an abrupt decline in mortality, as occurred in much of East and Southeast Asia.

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 95 As demographic transitions mature, further declines in fertility, coupled with declines in adult mortality, have the effect of aging the population, increasing both the average age of the general population and the proportion of the population that is elderly. Progress against adult mortality is always desirable; when it is achieved rapidly, however, governments are given little time to adjust to the ensuing eco- nomic, social, and political disruptions. In some European countries, population aging has been a gradual process. In 1865 some 7 percent of the French population was age 65 or older. Some 115 years later, in 1980, the 65-plus percentage had crept up to 14 percent. Today, about 7 percent of China's population is aged 65 or older, and according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census (2001), it will take only 25 years for this proportion to reach 14 percent. The Chinese transition will thus occur in about one-fifth of the time that was required for the transition in France. Some cities in developing countries are already beginning to face the chal- lenges associated with population aging. In Argentina, for example, population aging began sooner and occurred more rapidly than in neighboring countries, so that by the 1990s, the country contained a disproportionately high number of el- derly (Lloyd-Sherlock, 1997~. In Greater Buenos Aires, several neighborhoods have large proportions of elderly residents, who have particular demands for spe- cialized health and other public services (Lloyd-Sherlock, 1997~. As in so much of urban demography, however, very little is known of the specifically urban fea- tures of aging. At the intersection of two major trends in the developing world- urbanization and population aging lies very little research. MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES The simple description of events presented above masks enormous regional differ- ences. There is substantial variation in the pattern of urbanization among regions and even greater variation in the growth of individual countries and cities. As noted earlier, Latin America is far more urbanized than Africa or Asia. The level of urbanization in Latin America 75 percent already matches that of Europe and North America. Consequently, the region's rate of urbanization is now rel- atively slow. (Using simple mathematical methods, Chapter 4 shows why this should be so.) At the other end of the spectrum, Asia and Africa remain predom- inantly rural, with less than 38 percent of their populations in urban areas. Being less urbanized today, these two regions are expected to experience the most rapid rates of urbanization over the next 30 years. By 2030, some 55 percent of Africa's population and 53 percent of Asia's population are expected to be found in urban areas. The continents are also quite different in terms of total population size- Asia is much the largest so that there are almost twice as many urban residents in Asia as in Latin America and Africa combined. All of these regions are in the midst of major political, social, and economic transitions driven by the forces of globalization, democratization, and decentral- ization. The remainder of this chapter highlights some of the major differences

96 CITIES TRANSFORMED among and within the regions. Because much of the demographic analysis in the following chapters relies on the DHS, maps are provided for each region that show the locations of the major cities and indicate which countries have been covered by a DHS survey. Latin America The national populations of Latin America and the Caribbean grew very rapidly during the twentieth century, with the period from 1950 to 1970 being one of exceptionally rapid growth. Population growth rates peaked in the early 1960s at 2.75 percent per annum. Latin America's population increased from 167 mil- lion in 1950 to 519 million in 2000. Three-quarters of the region's population now resides in just six countries: Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. The two largest of these, Brazil and Mexico, account for more than half of the total population of the region. Figure 3-5 shows the large cities of the region. As noted above, Latin America has become predominantly urban, with the urban proportion having risen from 42 percent in 1950 to 75 percent in 2000. In terms of totals, the region's urban population grew from 70 million in 1950 to 391 million in 2000. With urban growth has come an increase in the number of large cities in the region. The number of million-plus cities increased from 6 in 1950 to more than 50 in 2000. (As we remarked earlier, the spatial distribution of Latin America's population is unusual in that high fractions reside in these large cities.) Latin America's four largest cities Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, and Sao Paulo have reached sizes that could hardly have been imagined a century ago. In 1950 the largest city of the region was Buenos Aires, which at that time had a population of around 5 million; Mexico City and Rio de Janeiro each had populations of 2.9 million; and Sao Paulo's population was 2.4 million. By 2000, these cities had grown enormously to 18.1 million in the case of Mexico City, 18.0 million in Sao Paulo, 12.0 million in Buenos Aires, and 10.7 million in Rio de Janeiro. Today Mexico City and Sao Paulo are two of the world's three largest urban agglomerations. The United Nations projects that Latin America's total population will grow to 723 million by 2030. All of this growth is expected to be absorbed by its cities; indeed, the total rural population of Latin America is expected to decline slightly as the total urban population rises by more than 200 million. The year 2030 will likely see four of every five Latin Americans living in cities, in many cases substantially increasing the demand for already overburdened public ser- vices. Nevertheless, there has been a dramatic and somewhat unanticipated slow- down in the growth of some of the most important megacities in Latin America, as congestion costs and government incentives have diverted new investment be- yond metropolitan boundaries. In some cases, such as in the Sao Paulo region of Brazil, new plants have located as far as 200 kilometers from the central core (Gilbert, 19944. In addition, many large Latin American cities were profoundly

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::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 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- FIGURE 3-5 Cities of more than 750,000 population in Latin America and the Caribbean. NOTE: Shading indicates that a DHS survey fielded in the country was included in the panel's dataset (see Table C-1~. SOURCES: Adapted from United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (UNCHS) (1996~; United Nations (2002a). affected in the 1980s and 1990s by severe economic recession and programs of structural adjustment. The countries of the region differ greatly in the extent of urbanization and the pace of urban growth. At one end of the spectrum, countries such as Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay were already highly urbanized by 1950, and their rates of urbanization over the ensuing 50 years were relatively moderate. The urban

98 CITIES TRANSFORMED proportion of Chile, for example, rose from 58 percent in 1950 to 86 percent in 2000, a gain of 28 percentage points. Over the same period, Brazil urbanized much more rapidly, going from 37 percent urban in 1950 to 81 percent urban by 2000, a gain of 44 points. Even after half a century of sustained urban growth, there remain large disparities across the region. Countries such as Mexico, Ar- gentina, Brazil, Chile, French Guiana, Uruguay, and Venezuela, as well as several Caribbean Islands, are more than three-quarters urban, while countries such as Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Guyana remain less than half urban. Urban growth has also been highly uneven within individual countries. In most countries, the national capitals have grown most rapidly. But in some areas, such as the Amazonia region of Brazil or in Mexico along the U.S. border, rapid economic expansion has generated rates of growth considerably higher than the national average. Generally speaking, the rate of urban growth and the growth of some of the region's largest cities have slowed considerably over the last cou- ple of decades. In many places, secondary cities and towns on the outskirts of large metropolitan regions have been more successful than the larger cities in attracting new investment and have begun to grow more rapidly (Villa and Ro- driguez, 1996~. Thus the region has experienced "reverse polarization," as high land and labor costs have created urban diseconomies in the largest cities and persuaded manufacturers to relocate their plants outside the main metropolitan boundaries. The nature of the growth of Latin American cities can best be understood with reference to the larger demographic, social, economic, and political contexts. The economic history of the region since World War II is separable into three broad periods: an era of fairly strong and sustained growth between 1945 and 1980; a period of major economic recessions and debt crises between 1980 and 1990; and an era of mild recovery thereafter. After World War II, urban growth in most countries of the region was accelerated by economic growth and industrialization. Most governments chose to expand their country's industrial base through import substitution strategies that included support for infant industries and the erecting of protective trade barriers. The majority of new industry was concentrated in a few major cities, most of them national capitals. Urban growth slowed in Latin America in the early 1980s as the region en- tered a period of major social and economic upheaval and fell into a prolonged economic recession. Many Latin American countries were forced to implement stabilization and adjustment policies designed to restore their economies by reduc- ing the size of the public sector and improving efficiency in their labor markets. As part of these reforms, governments were obliged to rethink state-driven ini- tiatives for industrialization based on import substitution, and most governments came to place greater emphasis on the role of market forces in determining the location and nature of new economic growth. Many industries that had been de- veloped on the basis of import substitution were forced to contract or close as local consumer markets shrank and protective barriers were removed (UNCHS,1996~.

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 99 Although there was a measure of economic recovery in the l990s, living stan- dards in many of the region's major cities remain lower than they were in the 1970s (Gilbert, 1996~. Evidence of both absolute and relative poverty is clearly visible in all Latin American cities: large shanty towns; large numbers of poor people; high levels of underemployment and (in some cases) unemployment; insufficient urban infrastructure; poor public services; crime; and high levels of air, water, and noise pollution. Latin America remains the region with the greatest income inequality in the world, and in many Latin American cities, slum and shanty dwellers still make up a large fraction of the population of the city (see, for example, Garza, 2000; Cohen, 2002~. Africa Africa has long been one of the least urbanized regions of the world. Most African economies are still heavily dependent on agriculture, principally at the subsistence level. In 1950, only 15 percent of the Africa population was living in cities, as compared with 17 percent in Asia and 42 percent in Latin America. Nevertheless, over the past 50 years the region has undergone relatively high rates of urban growth, a function, in part, of having relatively fewer urban residents to begin with. By 2000, some 37 percent of the region's population lived in urban areas, compared with 38 percent of Asia's population and 75 percent of Latin America's. In absolute terms, Africa's urban population grew from 32 million in 1950 to 102 million in 1975 and 295 million in 2000 (United Nations, 2002a). Most cities in Africa are small by international standards: Cairo and Lagos, with estimated populations of 9.5 and 8.7 million, respectively, in 2000, are the only two African urban agglomerations to make the United Nations' list of the 30 largest urban agglomerations in the world (see Figure 3-6~. According to the United Nations, Kinshasa, with 5.1 million residents in 2000, is the only other African city with more than 5 million residents. The United Nations estimates that there are 40 cities with 1-5 million residents. This list includes Johannes- burg, which the United Nations treats as a city with an estimated population of 2.3 million in 2000, whereas other estimates put the population of the Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Region at around 7.3 million in 1996 (Crankshaw and Parnell, 2003~. The United Nations estimates that there are 39 cities with popu- lations of 500,000 to 1 million and an unknown number with fewer than 500,000 residents. Africa's large cities play important economic and political roles, but it should be remembered that just 8 percent of Africa's urban population lives in cities of 5 million or more. The majority of urban Africans (61 percent) resides in towns or cities with fewer than 500,000 residents. African fertility is expected to fall substantially in the coming decades, but the total population of the region is expected to continue to increase, from 794 million in 2000 to 1.5 billion in 2030, with the annual growth rate being about 2.1 per- cent. According to the latest United Nations projections, the urban population

100 CITIES TRANSFORMED Liabon. ~ : : T~onanS~ ..~ ::::::::::::':. ' :-:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ~= ":::~:,:,:,:,:~:2:2:2:2:2:2:2:2:2:2:2222222222 2:: PORTUGAL . ~ : :: ... Gibraltar . ::: ~ ~ :. MALTA :~.~ ~ ~ """"""""""""""""""""~"''''''': . .:: it. te"222222222""""""""""""""""""~"""""'":"' ... ..... C.CO~ 222""""""""""""""""""""""""""~'.~""""':A': "'"'' , ~ Canary Islands ~ ~ - ` . : .. :: ~ LIBRA ..... _ A~E~A ::'' ""' . .~ .................................................................................................... WESTE—. ~ ~ SAH.A - . ~ . ~ ~ . r,.,. . ~ ~ ~ - ..................................................................... ~ ~"""""""" .~:~::: ~ ~" . ............................... I N~R f . ~ ' ..................................... . ~E~ ~ .' ~ .~:::::~ ~ ~ ~ ~ """"""""""""""'"" ..~ ~ ~ .. .... .. . ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~.,.,.,¢ . ~ ... . ~ ................ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ................ SIERR LEONE :.: Am i i ... ................. ~ ~ . .. .. ~ ~ '-a: ~ ::: ~~ .,: . ~ ~ ~ ~ LIBERIA ~ ~ ' TOGO ' Et UATORIAL GUINEA .......... SAD TOME hi PRINCIPE A tIantic Ocean · 10 million plus · 5-9.99 million 2.5-4.99 million · 0.75-2.49 million :::: ~ :::: ''':::::::::.Aogoan :.: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::'''''''''''''''`:~:~:::::::::::::~: :~ - E T N:: ARKS ~ ~ ... ~ '''' '''-'''- ~ ' ~ ''' '""" GREECE .~ ,.: Athohe : tonlan Soa .... ..:.:.~. i-:.:.:.:.:.:. .:.;~:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:~::.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:~:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.,.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:. , '' ' , - - ,:,:,'''''''''':,:,:,: ,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:~:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':':' - . .-.,.,, .SY.lY~ . . ~ CYPRUS .:~:~:::::~:::~:::::::::::= :::::::::::::~::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::'':':'':::::: Moditorranoan Soa LEBANON .~ OR t"N .~. ~ ::::::::, ISRAEL.: ~ ~ ............................ f::::::::::::::::::::~.:.:::::::~ :::::F:::::::::::::::::::::::~::::::::::~:::: ':::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: .~.~.~.~.~.~ ` I. Ponl ,.. ''''''"'. t ~ . ~ , .: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ In. .' t ATAR , ~ ::::: :'''' : ma. en ~ :::::~::: .::: t or . '., ': :'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''~,., ,., ,,.'''~' .,., t non : :.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:::.:::::::~..::::.., :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::~::::::::::::~: ................................................................................. .................................................... :: . G fit It ~ .,.,.,.,DEM~A~e ~ ~ ..... . ~ ~ REPUBLIC.~E I . ~ . ~ C - ,,= """""""""""""" ::~insha - :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ~ ~~ .::-- \ :.:. :: ~ i:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:::::::::.:::::::::::::.:::::::.:::.:.:.:.:.: :. ~~ . ~ ~~ ~ . ~ ............................ . 1~' ~ ~~ 0~ Ail-- c~ :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :~-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-~-:-~-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-. ,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:,:~,~:~,:,*:,:,: f.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:. :::::: i:::: :~::: ::::::::: ': ............................................... f ~ ~ :.: ~ ~ ~ .~ ~.~.~.~ : . ~ ~ ~ ]~ ~.~ :::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::: 2lM - . f - .~ :::::::::: : :::: :::::::::::: ::::: :.:.:.:.:.: .:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.: ::::::::~:: :::::::::::: :.:. :.:.::: :: ....................................... ,,: ::::::::::::::::::::::~:::::::::~:::::::::'. 2~ ~.~ ., ..................................... . ......................... ., : ., : ., .~::::~ . _ :. :.:.:.:.:.:.: ~.~ .. ~~ . I.-.-........ ::9itiU~I:~~CA:::::::::::::: .::::::::::::::::::::::: :. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::. ::,:,:,:,:,:,:::::::::::::: : ~ ~:::: - .:.:. - Indian Ocean SEYCHELLES COMOROS _~ \ F.~- - - - - - - -~:d t~:::::::.:.:.~- .—~ :.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:. . ~ MAURITIUS t:::::::::::::., v:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:y ::. :::: REUNION FIGURE 3-6 Cities of more than 750,000 population in Africa. NOTE: Shading indicates that a DHS survey fielded in the country was included in the panel's dataset (see Table C-1~. SOURCES: Adapted from United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (UNCHS) (1996~; United Nations (2002a). is expected to increase from 295 million in 2000 to 787 million in 2030, and its annual growth rate will be 3.3 percent. According to these projections, African society will cross the 50 percent urban threshold sometime before 2025, reaching 53 percent urban by 2030. It is expected that a large fraction of the Africa urban population will continue to reside in small towns and cities, and urban develop- ment planning for such communities should probably be given high priority. As is the case elsewhere, understanding urban change in Africa requires con- sideration of the social, economic, and political history of the region. In Africa's case, the role of the colonial experience merits special consideration (Stren and

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 101 Halfani, 2001~. Colonialism, which in much of Africa lasted from the late nineteenth century until at least the early 1960s, influenced the structure and pat- tern of African urban growth in a number of ways. Several of today's more promi- nent African cities Abidjan, Johannesburg, and Nairobi simply did not exist before colonial rule. They were founded and developed during colonial times as centers of commerce and administrative activity. More generally, however, colonialism led to the formation of an urban system that displaced the traditional networks of trade and influence that had developed over many centuries. The new urban system reflected colonial economic priorities, which emphasized the exploitation of Africa's mineral resources, primary agricultural production (in- cluding plantations), and transportation and communication activities (Stren and Halfani, 2001~. These new patterns of commerce and trade, in turn, led to higher levels and new patterns of migration as Africans sought work in mines, planta- tions, and newly developing urban areas. Colonial urbanization also affected the physical structure and layout of many cities. Perhaps the most obvious characteristic of colonial urban planning was the partitioning of urban space into two highly distinct zones: a "European" space that enjoyed a high level of urban infrastructure and services, and an "indigenous" space that was marginally serviced (Poisnot et al., 1989, cited in Stren and Halfani 2001~. The relative indifference to the needs of the African majority is said by Stren and Halfani (2001: 468) to be "a characteristic of urban planning that was rooted in the very fabric of the colonial state." Following independence, the population of many African cities grew rapidly, even in the absence of significant industrialization. City growth was fueled by high levels of both national population growth and spatial mobility. The avail- ability of large numbers of jobs in a newly formed public sector and better access to health and education services, together with an urban bias in the terms of trade between primary products and manufactured goods, combined to make urban life attractive. Since the 1970s, urban growth in Africa has been greatly affected by the region's economic crisis. A current list of ailments includes declining produc- tivity in agriculture and industry, persistent shortfalls of foreign exchange, in- creasing indebtedness, worsening balance-of-payments positions, and declining real wages. In addition, in several countries the legacy of long civil wars, to- gether with years of economic mismanagement, has generated massive and rapid population flows into cities and left economies teetering on the verge of collapse. As a consequence of these and other prolonged economic problems, many sub- Saharan African countries have been forced to implement stabilization and ad- justment policies, often under the auspices of the International Monetary Fund. These policies appear to have caused considerable social and economic distress, particularly among urban residents. The essential feature of current Africa urbanization, however, is that, unlike cities in much of Asia and Latin America, African cities are economically

102 CITIES TRANSFORMED marginalized in the new global economy. African cities are growing despite poor macroeconomic performance and without the benefit of significant FDI in their economies. Several large cities are growing at an average rate of 4 to 5 percent, making it next to impossible to provide low-income housing, high-quality urban services, or sufficient employment. Asia Asia is too vast and heterogeneous a region to yield easily to generalization. A1- together the region contains 3.7 billion people, about three-fifths of the world's population, rising from around 1.4 billion in 1950 and 2.4 billion in 1975. A1- though population growth rates for Asia as a whole have been declining since the late 1960s, the enormous base populations to which these rates have been applied have resulted in very large increases in the population totals over the past 50 years. Despite its relatively low level of urbanization (37.5 percent in 2000), Asia contains 1.38 billion urban residents, nearly half of the world's urban population (United Nations, 2002a). Since 1950 the region's urban population has increased by more than a factor of five, rising from 244 million in 1950 to 1.38 billion in 2000. By 2030, 53 percent of Asia's population is expected to be living in urban areas, a substantial increase from the current figure of just over 37 per- cent. Dominated statistically by China and India, the region contains almost 200 cities with 1 million or more residents and 22 cities with 5 million or more (see Figure 3-7~. The most recent United Nations projections indicate that more than 1.25 billion people will be added to Asia's population by 2030, all of whom will be absorbed in the region's cities and towns. By 2015,18 of the world's 30 largest megacities will be found in Asia. Few generalizations can be meaningful for a continent that combines some of the richest countries in the world with some of the poorest and some of the largest countries and economies with some of the smallest (Hardoy, Mitlin, and Satterth- waite,2001~. Given the diversity of experience across Asia, it is useful to classify the various countries in the region according to their level of urbanization and economic development. Perhaps the most important distinction is that between Pacific Asian and non-Pacific Asian countries, but further distinctions need to be made within both of these categories. Many cities in Pacific Asia have experienced dramatic economic growth as the region has become integrated into the global economy. Cities on the forefront of global restructuring, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, and Taipei, enjoyed unprecedented growth rates of more than 10 percent per annum throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. All of these cities rank among the top trading cities in the world; the level of gross national product (GNP) per capita in Hong Kong and Singapore exceeds that of many European countries. Similarly rapid urban transformation is now being seen in the "new" newly industrializing economies (NIEs) of Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.

103 ............................................................................................................................ ............................................................................................................................ :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: .............. ~ ............. ~ .......................... .................... . ~ ~ :::::::::::::::::::::: ~ ::::::::::: ~ ~ in: ~ ::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::.::: :~: ::::::::::::::::::::::: :~::::: :~::::::::::::::::::::: ~ ~ z :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::~:::::::~:::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::: ~ c --: ::: ~ := :< .~ ~~ ~ by to .~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~. ~ %~::~m -- :: ............................................................................................................... ~ ~ 4 ~ ..................................................................... ................................................................................. ~ - 4~ A: :~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~ :::: .............................................................................. '''''''''''''''''''''''''''"""""""""""""""""""""""""""~""""""~'' """"""""""""""'\"""""""' "'I" "'I' " :~'""""'4"~"""""""' - """'"' God:.: "~'-"'~'"" ~ ~ : :~ 4 ~ ~ .............................................................................. ~ ~ ~ ~4. I ~q ~' ................................ ~ ''''''''''''0'''''"""""""'{"""""""""""""""""'4"":'"~"'4""""""""""""" ~ 1 ................................................................ ~ 1 ~ .,. ............................................................................................................ . ~ A ~4 ~ .......................................................................................... ............................................... ~'''''''''''""'"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""", ~ 1':' . ~ ~ ~.,.,/ ~ .............................................................................. . ~ ~ ~ ~.~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4 . ~ I"""""""""""""' .................. . ~ . ~.~ ~ ~ ~ .s . ~ . ~ ..~ , ~ ~ ~ -"'""'"" . ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~- ~ . ~ ~ ~ ' _ ~ ~ ~- ~ .................................. 'A A ~ ..~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~ :: 3- ................ ''''''''I ~ ~"~""""""""""""""""""""""""""~"~! .......... .~ ~ ~ ~~ 4 l- ~-~ ~ ................................................................................... . ~.,.,.,.,~ .................................................... ''''''''''""""""~"'l .............................................................. /4 .................. '''''''''''""""""""""""""""""~""""') .~ ~ ~ _ ~ .................................................................. 3 - 5- . ~ ~ ~ ~':'"2""~""""""""""g"""']"""""""""")': ""''':':"'":::'" .~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ . .~ ~ x s I ~ ~ : ::::::::::::::::::::~::::::::: : ::::: i ~:::::::l :::. a:::::: F:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: '::-::-:::::::::-:-:-:-:::::::: [:::::::::::::':':::::::::: r2222.- - - -'-2:22222222.~.~.~.2. ·0O~ =- E E ~ ID N O .~+< ~ 4 : :::: :::::::::::~:::::~:~:::::::~ :::~:::::::::: I:::::: ::: ::::~::::::::~:::::::~::::::~::::::::::~::::::: O:::F :~::~:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::: ~ :.:..y]..:-.-... a-.-.-.-.-.-. -.-.-.-..:..-.-.~.-.-.-.-.-:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:......... ,, :.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.~:~;~:::: ire::: k - :: :` I::::::::: A':':':':':':':'' .~ '''''''''''~'''''''~' '''''L--~''''''2''''''~''''' . ~.,., - . ~.,.,~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ,,~ ~ '''5 c""""""""""'::::::':':.~: ~ . ~,( ~., . ,.,.,~ ~,,~ - - l,,,, ~ ~,,,,~,,,,,~,,,,,( C A O m cq a~ ~ a~ O cq · - - ~ ~ a~ ~ . - cq - ~ — a~ · - a~ ~ - c) cq ~ ~ a~ 3 .~ 8 ~ ¢ ~ ~ · - ~ ~ o O a~ ·~ a~ a~ o ~ ~ o ~ o o^~ ~-= a~ ° a~ s~ ) o ,~ C := ~ ~ · ~ ¢ , ~ .. V) V) ·- ~ o ~

104 CITIES TRANSFORMED At the national level, China remains a predominantly rural country with a level of GNP per capita that places it in the lower-middle-income range. But parts of China resemble the rapidly developing Pacific Asian economies. Its coastal re- gion has witnessed very rapid urban and industrial development since 1978, when the government departed from its earlier policy of self-reliance and initiated a new "open policy" designed to attract foreign investment and technology. In the early years of this policy, foreign investment was limited to the four Special Eco- nomic Zones (SEZs) Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Xiamen, and Shantou which were to serve as testing grounds for a country-wide export-oriented development strategy. Gradually, other special zones have been established. The result has been phe- nomenal economic growth for these zones and a massive increase in export-led foreign exchange earnings for China as a whole (Yeung and Hu,1992~. In Shenzhen, for example, which was chosen as one of the four initial SEZs because of its close proximity to Hong Kong, the value of industrial output in 1987 was almost 70 times its 1980 value, implying an annual rate of growth of 60 per- cent per annum (Won", Cal, and Chen, 1992; Young and Chu, 1998~. Similarly, Xiamen, located directly opposite the island of Taiwan, has enjoyed extraordinar- ily rapid export-led growth and industrialization over the last 20 years, thanks in large part to strong ties with overseas Chinese that brought an influx of FDI (Yeung and Chu, 2000~. Xiamen's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by a factor of 57 between 1980 and 1997, implying an average rate of growth of 23 percent per annum (Howell, 2000~. Similarly, coastal cities such as Dalian, Guangzhou, Qingdao, and Tianjin have all undergone remarkable transformations over the last 20 years since the government's open policy began (Yeung and Hu,1992~. In Shanghai, the transformation is more recent but perhaps even more striking. Long the largest industrial city and the economic powerhouse of socialist China, Shanghai was one of the 14 cities designated open in 1984. The city initially experienced relatively modest growth, lagging well behind Guangdong, Fujian, and other parts of Southern China (Yeung and Sung, 1996; Young, 2000~. The pace of urban development in Shanghai picked up after 1990, when the central government announced the development of Pudong New Area, a large area of agricultural and marginal land east of the central city. Since 1991, the growth of FDI in the city has been nothing short of astonishing. In 1985, Shanghai attracted US$759 million in FDI. By 1996, this figure had increased to $15.14 billion (Wu, 2000~. The city is now being dramatically restructured (Wu, 2000; Wu and Yusuf, 2003~. Even after taking these various success stories out of the mix, it remains dif- ficult to characterize the remainder of Asia, particularly when one considers that this part of the world contains tens of thousands of urban centers. In India alone, according to its 2001 census, there are more than 300 cities of over 100,000 pop- ulation and 35 with more than a million residents (Government of India, 2001~. For the most part, the non-Pacific Asian countries have significantly lower lev- els of GNP per capita than the Pacific Asian countries, but there is considerable

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 105 diversity within and among countries in their economic and urban characteris- tics. Relative to some cities in Pacific Asia, urban growth in such cities as Bom- bay, Calcutta, Delhi, Karachi, and Dhaka, for example, has probably been fu- eled less by economic dynamism and more by rural poverty and continued high fertility. Cities in the former Soviet republics Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in central Asia; Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in western Asia have followed a somewhat different pattern. Until the collapse of the former Soviet Union, these countries operated under systems of centralized planning in which government decisions rather than market forces determined the nature, scale, and spatial distribution of economic activity (Kostinskiy, 2001~. Oddly distinctive patterns of urban development resulted. For example, the lack of a market for land in Soviet cities led them to grow in concentric rings with vast amounts of unused land dispersed throughout (Becker and Morrison, 1999~. The limited role permitted to private housing markets and private enterprise and the emphasis on large-scale housing estates imposed a very different logic on the form and spatial distribution of cities than that seen in the West (Harloe, 1996; UNCHS, 19964. In addition, there was a general tendency among Soviet pol- icy makers to favor large-scale industrial production over the service and retail sectors, and industries were often located in a manner that a market economy would not have tolerated. There was also a tendency to keep plants in produc- tion long after they would have been deemed unprofitable or too expensive in the West. The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union have had enor- mous social, economic, and demographic consequences. Political destabilization and exposure to world market forces have resulted in an unprecedented decline in economic output and widespread poverty, which in turn have forced a reassess- ment of the location, functioning, and organization of productive activity and engendered great uncertainty about the future. These developments are most ap- parent in cities, and in some countries they appear to have sent large and small cities in very different directions. Between 1987 and 1994, marriage rates in the newly independent states fell by 25-50 percent, divorce rates in some newly independent states rose by 25 per- cent, birth rates declined by 20-40 percent, and male life expectancy fell by about 6 years (Cornia and Paniccia, 1999; Becker and Hemley, 1998~. Death rates among middle-aged male adults rose dramatically as the result of a large in- crease in cardiovascular disease and other preventable diseases, such as tuber- culosis, bronchitis, pneumonia, and dysentery, as well as accidents, injuries, and violence (Becker and Bloom, 19984. In addition, the republics on the periphery of the former Soviet Union witnessed significant ethnic-based migration, partly as a response to deteriorating urban living conditions and economic and social stress and partly as a response to growing regional nationalism. In Kazakhstan, for ex- ample, 11 percent of the population emigrated between 1990 and 1999, leading

106 CITIES TRANSFORMED to deurbanization in the aggregate (Musabek, Becker, Seitenova, and Urzhumova, 2001~. A similar pattern of outmigration of Russians and other non-Kyrgyz eth- nic groups was also recorded in neighboring Kyrgyzstan in the years immediately following the breakup of the Soviet Union (Anderson and Becker, 2001~. CONCLUSIONS The United Nations predicts that almost all of the world's population growth for the foreseeable future will occur in the cities and towns of developing countries. In Africa, Asia, and Latin America alike, population growth is becoming largely an urban phenomenon. By 2030, almost 60 percent of the population of poor countries will live in urban areas, and this spatial transformation can be expected to reshape social, economic, and political realms. For many if not most of the urban residents of poor countries, city life will take place in the context of very large cities whose scale will present residents and their governments with distinc- tive challenges. Without doubt, the challenges of city scale that will be faced in poor countries are unprecedented, and will call for flexible and novel responses. As this chapter has shown, the regional and international settings in which cities find themselves are roiling with change, presenting cities and governments with many unsettling developments. Globalization is bestowing its benefits and bestrewing its costs in a highly uneven fashion, with the benefits being most ap- parent in Pacific Asia and parts of Latin America. Most African economies stand apart from the global circuits, and they seldom partake of the FDI and technolog- ical changes that are being experienced elsewhere. The novelty, pace, and distribution of globalization suggest that the pheno- menon may well transform the demographic aspects of urban transitions. It is possible to conceive of profound effects, but empirical linkages between demo- graphic behavior and measures of globalization have not yet been established. In- sightful demographic studies might be focused on the cities and surrounding rural regions of Pacific Asia, with attention to fertility and marriage, as well as migra- tion. We can imagine research designs for Pudong or Shenzhen that might be highly illuminating about the local demographic expressions of global economic forces. For instance, as capital flows to the large cities of these regions, are their small cities likely to be starved of the capital they need, or will large-city growth be accompanied by beneficial economic spillovers? Studies of such issues have yet to be undertaken. Conventional demographic approaches reveal that when compared with the historical precedents, recent urban transitions differ sharply in some aspects but differ rather little in others. As the analysis in this chapter has shown, rates of urban population growth are high relative to the historical standard, although it appears that rates of urbanization are not. High rates of urban growth in to- day's developing countries are at least as much the product of high rates of urban natural increase as of rural-to-urban migration. Recent estimates by the United

URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 107 Nations strongly confirm earlier estimates, which attributed some 60 percent of urban growth to urban natural increase, with the balance left to migration and reclassification. Policy makers do not appear to have fully understood the contri- bution of urban natural increase. If it is typically the greater part of urban growth, a correct assessment of the situation should bring a renewed appreciation of the role that might be played by urban family planning programs in restraining urban growth.

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Virtually all of the growth in the world’s population for the foreseeable future will take place in the cities and towns of the developing world. Over the next twenty years, most developing countries will for the first time become more urban than rural. The benefits from urbanization cannot be overlooked, but the speed and sheer scale of this transformation present many challenges. A new cast of policy makers is emerging to take up the many responsibilities of urban governance—as many national governments decentralize and devolve their functions, programs in poverty, health, education, and public services are increasingly being deposited in the hands of untested municipal and regional governments. Demographers have been surprisingly slow to devote attention to the implications of the urban transformation.

Drawing from a wide variety of data sources, many of them previously inaccessible, Cities Transformed explores the implications of various urban contexts for marriage, fertility, health, schooling, and children’s lives. It should be of interest to all involved in city-level research, policy, planning, and investment decisions.

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