Assessment of Mars Science and Mission Priorities
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by Contracts NASW 96013 and NASW 01001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor.
Cover: An artist’s impression of one of NASA’s twin Mars Exploration Rovers on the surface of Mars. Courtesy of NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
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OTHER REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD
Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Environment: Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations (2003)
Assessment of the Usefulness and Availability of NASA’s Earth and Space Mission Data (2002)
Factors Affecting the Utilization of the International Space Station for Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences (prepublication) (2002)
Life in the Universe: An Assessment of U.S. and International Programs in Astrobiology (2002)
New Frontiers in the Solar System: An Integrated Exploration Strategy (prepublication) (2002)
Review of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise Applications Program Plan (2002)
“Review of the Redesigned Space Interferometry Mission (SIM)” (2002)
Safe on Mars: Precursor Measurements Necessary to Support Human Operations on the Martian Surface (2002)
The Sun to the Earth—and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics (2002)
Toward New Partnerships in Remote Sensing: Government, the Private Sector, and Earth Science Research (2002)
Using Remote Sensing in State and Local Government: Information for Management and Decision Making (2002)
The Mission of Microgravity and Physical Sciences Research at NASA (2001)
The Quarantine and Certification of Martian Samples (2001)
Readiness Issues Related to Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences on the International Space Station (2001)
“Scientific Assessment of the Descoped Mission Concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST)” (2001)
Signs of Life: A Report Based on the April 2000 Workshop on Life Detection Techniques (2001)
Transforming Remote Sensing Data into Information and Applications (2001)
U.S. Astronomy and Astrophysics: Managing an Integrated Program (2001)
Assessment of Mission Size Trade-offs for Earth and Space Science Missions (2000)
Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPP and NPOESS Meteorological Satellites (2000)
Future Biotechnology Research on the International Space Station (2000)
Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite Systems for Climate Research: I. Science and Design (2000)
Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite Systems for Climate Research: II. Implementation (2000)
Microgravity Research in Support of Technologies for the Human Exploration and Development of Space and Planetary Bodies (2000)
Preventing the Forward Contamination of Europa (2000)
“On Continuing Assessment of Technology Development in NASA’s Office of Space Science” (2000)
“On Review of Scientific Aspects of the NASA Triana Mission” (2000)
“On the Space Science Enterprise Draft Strategic Plan” (2000)
Review of NASA’s Biomedical Research Program (2000)
Review of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy for 2000-2010 (2000)
The Role of Small Satellites in NASA and NOAA Earth Observation Programs (2000)
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COMMITTEE ON PLANETARY AND LUNAR EXPLORATION
JOHN A. WOOD,
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,
Chair
WILLIAM V. BOYNTON,
University of Arizona
W. ROGER BUCK,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
JAMES P. FERRIS,*
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
JOHN M. HAYES,*
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
KAREN J. MEECH,
University of Hawaii
JOHN F. MUSTARD,
Brown University
ANDREW F. NAGY,
University of Michigan
KEITH S. NOLL,
Space Telescope Science Institute
DAVID A. PAIGE,*
University of California, Los Angeles
ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO,
Brown University
ANNA-LOUISE REYSENBACH,
Portland State University
J. WILLIAM SCHOPF,
University of California, Los Angeles
ANN L. SPRAGUE,
University of Arizona
Staff
DAVID H. SMITH, Study Director
SANDRA J. GRAHAM, Senior Staff Officer
KIRSTEN ARMSTRONG, Research Assistant
BRIAN DEWHURST, Research Assistant
SHARON S. SEAWARD, Senior Program Assistant (through December 2001)
RODNEY N. HOWARD, Senior Program Assistant (from January 2002)
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
JOHN H. McELROY,
University of Texas at Arlington (retired),
Chair
ROGER P. ANGEL, JR.,
University of Arizona
JAMES P. BAGIAN,
Veterans Health Administration’s National Center for Patient Safety
ANA P. BARROS,
Harvard University
RETA F. BEEBE,
New Mexico State University
ROGER D. BLANDFORD,
California Institute of Technology
JAMES L. BURCH,
Southwest Research Institute
RADFORD BYERLY, JR.,
University of Colorado
HOWARD M. EINSPAHR,
Bristol-Myers Squibb Pharmaceutical Research Institute
STEVEN H. FLAJSER,
Loral Space and Communications Ltd.
MICHAEL FREILICH,
Oregon State University
DON P. GIDDENS,
Georgia Institute of Technology
RALPH H. JACOBSON,
The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (retired)
MARGARET G. KIVELSON,
University of California, Los Angeles
BRUCE D. MARCUS,
TRW (retired)
HARRY Y. McSWEEN, JR.,
University of Tennessee
GEORGE A. PAULIKAS,
The Aerospace Corporation (retired)
ANNA-LOUISE REYSENBACH,
Portland State University
ROALD S. SAGDEEV,
University of Maryland
CAROLUS J. SCHRIJVER,
Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory
ROBERT J. SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
MITCHELL SOGIN,
Marine Biological Laboratory
C. MEGAN URRY,
Yale University
PETER W. VOORHEES,
Northwestern University
J. CRAIG WHEELER,
University of Texas
JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Director
Preface
Mars is arguably the most interesting and important target for study in the solar system, because it is the most nearly similar to Earth of all the planets and one of the most likely repositories for extraterrestrial life among them. Its position in the planetary sequence and its relatively benign climate make it more accessible for study than any other planet. Earlier reports and letter reports by the Space Studies Board’s Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration (COMPLEX)—including 1990 Update to Strategy for Exploration of the Inner Planets (1990), An Integrated Strategy for the Planetary Sciences: 1995–2010 (1994), Review of NASA’s Planned Mars Program (1996), “On NASA’s Mars Sample Return Mission Options” (letter report, 1996), and “Assessment of NASA’s Mars Exploration Architecture” (letter report, 1998)—have attached a very high priority to Mars exploration, as have the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s own strategic planning documents. The White House National Science and Technology Council’s statement of national space policy, dated September 19, 1996, lists as one of the nation’s prime space exploration goals “a sustained program to support a robotic presence on the surface of Mars by year 2000 for the purposes of scientific research, exploration and technology development.”
The failures in 1999 of two promising Mars missions—Mars Climate Orbiter and Mars Polar Lander—have brought about a critical reexamination and replanning of NASA’s program of Mars exploration. It has been several years since COMPLEX last considered its overall scientific priorities for the exploration of Mars, and in this period two very successful missions—Mars Pathfinder and Mars Global Surveyor—have been executed. The discoveries made by these spacecraft, together with related astronomical, theoretical, and laboratory studies, have provided many new data (e.g., detailed maps of the planet’s magnetic and gravity fields and topography, history of recent water flow, and composition of surface rocks) that should be included in an assessment of research priorities.
During the current hiatus in activity resulting from NASA’s program reassessment, it is appropriate to reexamine the scientific priorities for the exploration of Mars, and it is important to then provide an independent scientific assessment of how well NASA’s revised program plans will respond to those scientific priorities. Therefore, in November 2000 the Space Studies Board charged COMPLEX with conducting an assessment of Mars-science and Mars-mission priorities. In particular, the committee was asked to do the following:
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Review the state of knowledge of the planet Mars, with special emphasis on findings of the most recent Mars missions and related research activities;
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Review the most important Mars research opportunities in the immediate future;
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Review scientific priorities for the exploration of Mars identified by COMPLEX (and other scientific advisory groups) and their motivation, and consider the degree to which recent discoveries suggest a reordering of priorities; and
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Assess the congruence between NASA’s evolving Mars Exploration Program plan and these recommended priorities, and suggest any adjustments that might be warranted.
Although this project was formally initiated at COMPLEX’s January 29–31, 2001, meeting in Tucson, Arizona, the committee heard an extensive series of presentations describing the scientific and technical aspects of Mars exploration during the framing of the charge for this study at COMPLEX’s October 2–4, 2000, meeting in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Work on this project continued at the committee’s May 2–4, 2001, meeting in Washington, D.C., and a complete draft of this report was finished in late May 2001. The text was reviewed by the Space Studies Board in June 2001, sent to external reviewers in July 2001, and revised during August and September 2001. Copies of this report were distributed in an unedited, prepublication format in November 2001. This, the final edited text, was prepared in mid-2002 and supersedes all previous versions of this report.
The work of COMPLEX was made easier thanks to the contributions made by Mario H. Acuña (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center), Raymond E. Arvidson (Washington University), Jay T. Bergstralh (NASA Headquarters), Stephen Bougher (University of Arizona), Bruce A. Campbell (Smithsonian Institution), Stephen M. Clifford (Lunar and Planetary Institute), Peter T. Doran (University of Illinois, Chicago), James Garvin (NASA Headquarters), Martha S. Gilmore (Wesleyan University), James W. Head III (Brown University), G. Scott Hubbard (NASA Headquarters), Bradley L. Jolliff (Washington University), Philippe Masson (University of Paris Sud), and Maria T. Zuber (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).
COMPLEX also wishes to single out for acknowledgment the particularly important contributions made by Victor Baker (University of Arizona) and Mitchell Sogin (Marine Biological Laboratory).
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscripts remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. COMPLEX thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: James Arnold (University of California, San Diego), Philip R. Christensen (Arizona State University), Alan Delamere (Ball Aerospace), Donald M. Hunten (University of Arizona), Bruce Jakosky (University of Colorado), Norman F. Ness (University of Delaware), and Tobias C. Owen (University of Hawaii). Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Michael Carr (U.S. Geological Survey). Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the institution.