ESTIMATING CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
REPORT OF A WORKSHOP
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington , D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this workshop was provided by the Environmental Protection Agency under Contract No. 2W-0373-NANX. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
WORKSHOP STEERING COMMITTEE
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
MICHAEL J. PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,
University of Maryland, College Park
ANDREW J. WEAVER,
University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Workshop Moderator
JERRY D. MAHLMAN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
NRC Staff
LAURIE S. GELLER, Study Director
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Project Assistant
JULIE DEMUTH, Research Associate
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
RAYMOND J. BAN,
The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
RAFAEL L. BRAS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD,
University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder
CASSANDRA G. FESEN,
Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
GEORGE L. FREDERICK,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
JUDITH L. LEAN,
Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
MARGARET A. LEMONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MARIO J. MOLINA,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL J. PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
WILLIAM J. RANDEL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RICHARD D. ROSEN,
Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, Massachusetts
THOMAS F. TASCIONE,
Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska
JOHN C. WYNGAARD,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Ex Officio Members
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,
University of Maryland, College Park
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, New Jersey
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Senior Scholar
LAURIE S. GELLER, Senior Program Officer
AMANDA STAUDT, Program Officer
JULIE DEMUTH, Research Associate
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Project Assistant
ROB GREENWAY, Project Assistant
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Associate
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the workshop charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Robert Dickinson, Georgia Institute of Technology
Anthony Broccoli, Rutgers University
Joyce Penner, University of Michigan
Veerabhadran Ramanathan, University of California, San Diego
Norman Rosenberg, University of Maryland, College Park
Francis Zwiers, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Although the reviewers listed above provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
We also wish to thank the steering committee that selected the workshop participants and designed the agenda: Rosina M. Bierbaum, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor; Michael J. Prather, University of California, Irvine; Eugene M. Rasmusson, University of Maryland, College Park; Andrew J. Weaver, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. In addition, special thanks go to Jerry Mahlman, National Center for Atmospheric Research, who played a key role as moderator of the workshop that was the basis of this report. His scientific expertise and meeting facilitation skills were crucial to ensuring the success of this activity.
