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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF APPLIED ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AT DOE (PHASE ONE)

A FIRST LOOK FORWARD

Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Programs

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-AM01-99PO80016, Task Order No. 27, DE-AT36-03GO13073, between the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

COMMITTEE ON PROSPECTIVE BENEFITS OF DOE’S ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND FOSSIL ENERGY R&D PROGRAMS

ROBERT W.

FRI,

Chair,

Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

LINDA R. COHEN,

University of California, Irvine

JAMES CORMAN,

Energy Alternatives Studies, Inc., Schenectady, New York

PAUL A. DeCOTIS,

New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Albany, New York

WESLEY L. HARRIS,

NAE,1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

MARTHA A. KREBS,

Science Strategies, Los Angeles, California

GEORGE W. NORTON,

Virginia Tech, Blacksburg

ROSALIE RUEGG,

Technology Impact Assessment (TIA) Consulting, Inc., Emerald Isle, North Carolina

MAXINE L. SAVITZ,

NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California

JACK S. SIEGEL,

Energy Resources International, Inc., Washington, D.C.

JAMES E. SMITH,

Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

TERRY SURLES,

Electricity Innovation Institute, Palo Alto, California

JAMES L. SWEENEY,

Stanford University, California

JOHN J. WISE,

NAE, Mobil Research & Development Company (retired), Princeton, New Jersey

Project Staff

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)

MARTIN OFFUTT, Study Director

ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer

JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, BEES

PANOLA GOLSON, Program Associate

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR)

TAMARA DICKINSON, Senior Program Officer

1  

NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN,

NAE,1

Chair,

MPR Associates, Alexandria, Virginia

ROBERT W.

FRI,

Vice Chair,

Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

ALLEN J. BARD,

NAS,2 University of Texas, Austin

DAVID L. BODDE,

Clemson University, South Carolina

PHILIP R. CLARK,

NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey

E. LINN DRAPER, JR.,

NAE, American Electric Power, Inc., Austin, Texas

CHARLES GOODMAN,

Southern Company Services, Birmingham, Alabama

DAVID G. HAWKINS,

Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C.

MARTHA A. KREBS,

Science Strategies, Los Angeles, California

GERALD L. KULCINSKI,

NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison

DAVID K. OWENS,

Edison Electric Institute, Washington, D.C.

WILLIAM F. POWERS,

NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan

TONY PROPHET,

Global Supply Carrier, Farmington, Connecticut

MICHAEL P. RAMAGE,

NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey

EDWARD S. RUBIN,

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

MAXINE L. SAVITZ,

NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California

PHILIP R. SHARP,

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

SCOTT W. TINKER,

University of Texas, Austin

Staff

JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director

ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer

MARTIN OFFUTT, Senior Program Officer

DANA CAINES, Financial Associate

PANOLA GOLSON, Program Associate

1  

NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering.

2  

NAS = member, National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

Acknowledgments

The Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Programs wishes to acknowledge and thank the many individuals who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Research Council (NRC) study. In particular, the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and Office of Fossil Energy supplied extensive data and analyses for this project. Their valuable information on and insight into advanced technologies and development initiatives assisted the committee in formulating the recommendations included in this report. The committee particularly commends the members of the expert panels, who carried out their difficult assignments with professionalism and discretion. One of the signal accomplishments of this project has been to show that such panels can be formed and complete their work quickly and with the highest standards of quality.

The chair is particularly grateful to the members of the committee and to the staff of the National Research Council. This report is in every sense a product of the work of the committee members, who synthesized a number of complex issues into a coherent whole with extraordinary skill. The NRC staff included Martin Offutt, Alan Crane, and James Zucchetto of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, and Tamara Dickinson of the Board on Earth Sciences and Resources. The complicated committee and panel structure of this project made special demands on them, which they consistently met. Finally, Panola Golson supported the entire effort in exemplary fashion.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

William Agnew, NAE, General Motors (retired),

William Fulkerson, ORNL (retired) and University of Tennessee,

Clark W. Gellings, Electric Power Research Institute,

Frank Incropera, NAE, University of Notre Dame,

Trevor Jones, NAE, Biomec, Inc.,

James Katzer, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering (retired),

Charles Lave, University of California, Irvine,

Lester Lave, IOM, Carnegie Mellon University,

James Dexter Peach, General Accounting Office (retired),

Tony Prophet, Carrier Corporation,

Burton Richter, NAS, Stanford University, and

Robert Socolow, Princeton University.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence Papay, NAE, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), and John Ahearne, NAE, Sigma Xi. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

Tables and Figures

TABLES

3-1

 

Effect of Applying a 3 Percent Discount Rate to a Lump Sum Cash Payment,

 

17

3-2

 

Expected Benefits Calculation Given Three Possible Outcomes,

 

17

3-3

 

Expected Benefits Calculation Given Four Possible Outcomes,

 

18

3-4

 

Expected Benefits Calculation Given Four Possible Outcomes, One of Them “Extraordinary,”

 

18

3-5

 

Effect of Next-Best Technology on Expected Benefits,

 

19

F-1

 

Benefits Corresponding to $50 Million per Year Budget (Full Funding),

 

78

F-2

 

Benefits Corresponding to $25 Million per Year Budget (Reduced Funding),

 

79

F-3

 

Probabilities of Technical Success at Selected R&D Funding Levels,

 

80

G-1

 

Top-Level Carbon Sequestration Roadmap,

 

91

G-2

 

Actual, Requested, and Expected Funding, by Year, for Carbon Sequestration R&D,

 

92

G-3

 

Cost of Electricity With and Without Capture and Compression,

 

95

G-4

 

Range of Electricity Cost Increases Used by the Panel,

 

95

H-1

 

Fuel Cell Program Probability of Achieving Ultimate Goals,

 

104

H-2

 

Characteristics of Fuel Cell Distributed Generation Versus Next-Best Technology,

 

112

H-3

 

Benefits Calculations for Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance (SECA) Program for Three Global Scenarios,

 

112

H-4

 

Benefits Calculated by DOE for All Combinations of Global Scenarios and R&D Success,

 

113

H-5

 

Method 1 for Calculating Benefits,

 

114

H-6

 

Inputs and Assumptions Used in Method 1,

 

114

H-7

 

Method 2 for Calculating Benefits,

 

115

H-8

 

Capital Costs and Heat Rates Used in Method 2,

 

115

FIGURES

ES-1

 

Decision tree,

 

3

ES-2

 

Results matrix for evaluating benefits and costs prospectively,

 

3

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×

2-1

 

Matrix for assessing benefits and costs retrospectively,

 

9

2-2

 

Results matrix for evaluating benefits and costs prospectively,

 

10

3-1

 

Results matrix for evaluating benefits and costs prospectively,

 

14

3-2

 

Decision tree,

 

20

3-3

 

Example of decision tree applied to advanced lighting programs,

 

21

3-4

 

Benefits of energy efficiency advances,

 

26

3-5

 

Benefits of energy efficiency advances,

 

27

3-6

 

Benefits of resource supply enhancement,

 

29

5-1

 

Probability of technical success,

 

40

5-2

 

SSL Program prospective benefits, reduced budget,

 

41

1

 

Matrix for assessing benefits and costs retrospectively,

 

65

2

 

Matrix for assessing benefits and costs prospectively,

 

66

E-1

 

Matrix for assessing benefits and costs prospectively,

 

71

F-1

 

Trends in solid state lighting efficacy,

 

77

F-2

 

Solid state lighting economic benefits at a budget of $25 million per year,

 

79

F-3

 

Probability of technical success,

 

80

F-4

 

SSL Program prospective benefits, full funding,

 

81

F-5

 

SSL Program prospective benefits, reduced budget,

 

82

G-1

 

Schematic illustration of benefits calculation,

 

92

G-2

 

Cost and amount of zero-emissions electricity based on simplified calculations roughly matching DOE’s assumptions,

 

93

G-3

 

Cost and amount of zero-emissions electricity for one possible path through the decision tree,

 

96

G-4

 

The range of expected cost improvements predicted by the panel members,

 

97

G-5

 

Panelists’ assessment of cost reductions translated into expected benefits with and without sequestration risk,

 

98

G-6

 

Prospective benefits matrix for the Carbon Sequestration Program,

 

99

H-1

 

Prospective benefits matrix for the vehicle fuel cell program,

 

106

H-2

 

Prospective benefits matrix for the Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance (SECA) program,

 

111

J-1

 

Template for presenting panel results,

 

122

K-1

 

Program Assessment Summary (PAS) form, to be completed by DOE,

 

125

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11277.
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In 2001, the National Research Council (NRC) completed a congressionally mandated assessment of the benefits and costs of DOE’s fossil energy and energy efficiency R&D programs, Energy Research at DOE: Was It Worth It? The Congress followed this retrospective study by directing DOE to request the NRC to develop a methodology for assessing prospective benefits. The first phase of this project—development of the methodology—began in December 2003. Phase two will make the methodology more robust and explore related issues, and subsequent phases will apply the methodology to review the prospective benefits of different DOE fossil energy and energy efficiency R&D programs. In developing this project, three considerations were particularly important. First, the study should adapt the work of the retrospective study. Second, the project should develop a methodology that provides a rigorous calculation of benefits and risks, and a practical and consistent process for its application. Third, the methodology should be transparent, should not require extensive resources for implementation, and should produce easily understood results. This report presents the results of phase one. It focuses on adaptation of the retrospective methodology to a prospective context.

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