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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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Review of the Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Studies

Committee to Review the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies

Water Science and Technology Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

in collaboration with

The Royal Society of Canada

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by the Department of State under award number SAQMPD05C1133. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph, J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice-chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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The Royal Society of Canada, The Canadian Academy of the Sciences and Humanities, is the senior national body of distinguished Canadian scientists and scholars. Its primary objective is to promote learning and research in the arts and sciences. The Society consists of men and women from across Canada who are selected by their peers for outstanding contributions to the natural and social sciences and in the humanities. Dr. Gilles Paquet is president of the Royal Society of Canada.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE LAKE ONTARIO-ST. LAWRENCE RIVER STUDIES*

JAMES L. WESCOAT, Chair,

University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

PATRICIA CHOW-FRASER,

McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

DESMOND N.D. HARTFORD,

British Columbia Hydropower Authority, Burnaby, Canada

JANET R. KEOUGH,

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Duluth, Minnesota

LYNN ALISON MAGUIRE,

Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

JOSEPH C. MAKAREWICZ,

State University of New York at Brockport, New York

DAENE C. MCKINNEY,

University of Texas, Austin

DAVID H. MOREAU,

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

SLOBODAN P. SIMONOVIC,

University of Western Ontario, London, Canada

P. ANDY ZIELINSKI,

Ontario Power Generation, Toronto, Canada

National Research Council Staff

LAUREN E. ALEXANDER, Study Director

ELLEN A. DE GUZMAN, Research Associate

*  

The activities of this committee were overseen and supported by the U.S. National Research Council’s Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) in collaboration with the Royal Society of Canada (RSC). The WSTB members are listed in Appendix D. Dr. Jeremy N. McNeil, chair of the RSC committee on expert panels, served as liaison from the Royal Society. Biographical information on committee members is contained in Appendix E.

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Preface

This report reviews selected works of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study for the International Joint Commission (IJC). The IJC is a bi-national organization created in 1909 to consider water and related issues along the U.S.-Canada boundary. In 1999, the IJC prepared a plan of study on the effects of water level and flow regulation on various stakeholder interests in the basin, and it established the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study Board to implement that plan.

As in its own mandate, the IJC directed the Study Board and its committees to, “assure that all significant issues are adequately addressed,” serve in “their personal and professional capacities, and not as representatives of their countries, agencies, organizations, or other affiliations,” and “endeavour to conduct all of their work by consensus” (IJC, 2000, pp. 2-3). This charge extended to the IJC’s nearly century-long deliberations on water supply, navigation, and hydropower into the broader domains of environmental, coastal, recreational, and participatory dimensions of Great Lakes water regulation.

The Study Board adopted a “shared vision” planning approach to its five-year program of research on the effects of water level and flow regulation. Shared vision planning involves a collaborative process of water resources inquiry, systems modeling, and stakeholder participation that strives to converge on water regulation plans worthy of consideration by the IJC. The study board commissioned scores of studies involving over 150 specialists on topics that included wetlands, species at risk, coastal erosion, and flooding, selected summaries of which are reviewed in this report.

Toward the end of the five-year study period, the IJC arranged with the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) and Royal Society of Canada (RSC) to carry out this independent review of studies, reports, and models prepared for the study board, including its shared vision model.

A special committee was formed for the assignment and to prepare this report. The committee worked intensively and on a fast-track between June and August 2005 and held two meetings. The first meeting was on June 13-15, 2005 at Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, Canada in a workshop setting, which allowed the committee to extensively interact with IJC and the Lake Ontario-St Lawrence River Study scientists. The workshop setting also provided a venue for the committee to receive explanations on study questions and points of clarification. After various experts (study leads) made presentations, the committee made exhaustive efforts to gain clarity on review topics.

The committee wishes to thank the following presenters: Joseph Atkinson, University at Buffalo; Lisa Bourget, IJC; Joe De Pinto, LimnoTech, Inc. ; Jana Lantry, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; Wendy Leger, Environment Canada; Todd Redder, LimnoTech, Inc.; Albert Schiavone, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; Eugene Stakhiv,

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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IWR and Study Board; Andrè Talbot, Environment Canada; William Werick, IJC Study Team; Douglas Wilcox, USGS, Great Lakes Science Center, and Peter Zuzek, Baird & Associates. The committee also wishes to thank the following for participating in this meeting: Tom McAuley, IJC; Mark Colosimo, IJC; Anthony Eberhardt, IJC-Buffalo; Ted Hullar, ISLRBC-US; Mike Shantz, Environment Canada; and Russ Trowbridge, IJC.

A second and final meeting, held on July 13-15, 2005 in Washington, DC, provided another opportunity to fill information gaps, especially in technical documentation. Also, the committee formulated and deliberated the report’s major recommendations, and made plans on how to complete the report. The committee wishes to thank the following for participating in the panel discussion on flood erosion and prediction system: Guy Meadows, University of Michigan; Keith Bedford, Ohio State University; and David Schwab, NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Laboratory.

I want to thank committee members for their dedication to reaching consensus and hard work in preparing this review. I especially thank Dr. Lauren Alexander, Study Director for the NRC Water Science and Technology Board, who organized the overall effort from beginning to end and who as a wetland ecologist contributed to all sections of the report. Ellen de Guzman efficiently kept the committee apprised of documents, deadlines, and logistics. Stephen Parker, Director of the Water Science and Technology Board, lent his broad experience to the project.

Finally, we thank the Study Board for candid presentations and discussions of Shared Vision Modeling and its associated scientific challenges. We hope the International Joint Commission finds this review useful in its deliberations.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Keith Bedford, Ohio State University, Columbus

Patrick L. Brezonik, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

Joan G. Ehrenfeld, Rutgers University, New Brunswick

David Green, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec

Jeffrey A. Hutchings, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada

David Schwab, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Kurt Stephenson, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Blacksburg

André St. Hilaire, Université du Québec, Canada

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions and recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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review of this report was overseen by George Hornberger, University of Virginia, appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and institution.

James L. Wescoat, Jr., Chair

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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Since the 1950s,the International Joint Commission (IJC) of Canada and the United States has issued water regulation and management plans for Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. Changes in recreational, environmental, navigational and other uses of the water system have prompted the IJC to consider replacing the current water regulation plan in operation for more than 40 years. IJC’s goals for a replacement plan include sound scientific foundations, public participation, transparency in plan development and evaluation, and inclusion of environmental considerations. To help develop and select the new plan, the IJC supported a 5-year, $20 million Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study (LOSLR Study). The LOSLR Study uses models to compile and integrate data gathered from a series of commissioned studies of wetlands, species at risk, recreational boating, fisheries, coastal erosion and flooding, commercial navigation, hydropower, industrial, municipal and domestic water intakes, public information and education, and hydrologic modeling.

This report reviews a portion of the study that focused on wetlands and species at risk and three of the models that were used. The report finds that the overall breadth of the LOSLR study is impressive, and commends the scale and inclusiveness of the studies and models. In terms of informing decision making, however, the reviewed studies and models show deficiencies when evaluated against ten evaluation criteria, including treatment of uncertainty, quality control/quality assurance, thorough documentation, and empirical foundations. Among the report’s recommendations is a need for more thorough documentation of study methods and findings, stronger and more consistent quality control, and more attention to how uncertainty should be addressed to better inform decision making. This NRC study was conducted in collaboration with the Royal Society of Canada.

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