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Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies (2006)

Chapter: Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
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Appendix B
Documents and Models for Review and Background

SHARED VISION MODEL

For Review

SVM 1 Evaluation Process Overview

SVM 2 Shared Vision Model For The Design and Evaluation of Alternative Regulation of Lake Ontario Releases Into The St. Lawrence River [zip file].

SVM 3 Shared Vision Model for the Design and Evaluation of Alternative Regulation of Lake Ontario Releases into the St. Lawrence River. Documentation Report. February 15, 2005.

For Background

SVM 4 Preliminary Criteria and Metrics for the Plan Formulation and Evaluation Group (PFEG).

SVM 2 Contextual Narratives for evaluating the work of the technical working groups (embedded in the Shared Vision Model).

SVM 6 SVM Informal Decision Tool Program

FLOOD EROSION PREDICTION SYSTEM MODEL

For Review

FEPS 1 Zuzek, P.J., and R. B. Nairn. n.d. Automated Lake wide Flooding Predictions and Economic Damages on LakeOntario.

FEPS 2 Nairn, R.B., and P.J. Zuzek. n.d. Automated Lake wide Erosion Predictions and Economic Damages on LakeOntario.

For Background

FEPS 3 FEPS Model

FEPS 6 Memorandum from Zuzek, P.J., nad R. Roblin (Baird & Associates) to IJC Study Participants re: Integration of Beach User Economics into the Shared Vision Model. April 7, 2004.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×

FEPS 7 Baird & Associates. March 2004. Erosion Performance Indicator: Methodology and Shared Vision Model Application. Prepared for I.J.C. Plan Formulation and Evaluation Group.

FEPS 8 Baird & Associates. February 2005. Flooding Performance Indicator: Methodology and Shared Vision Model Application. Prepared for IJC Plan Formulation and Evaluation Group. Oakville, Ontario: Baird & Associates.

FEPS 9 Baird & Associates. February 2004. Shore Protection Performance Indicator: Methodology and Shared Vision Model Application. Oakville, Ontario: Baird & Associates.

FEPS 4 Sciremammano, F., and S. Renzetti. 2005. FEPS/Coastal Discussion Paper

FEPS 18 Minutes/Observations from FEPS Independent Technical Review 12/13/2002 and 7/26/2002 notes.

FEPS Contextual Narratives

FEPS 11 Contextual Narrative for “Sediment Budget PI” Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River.

FEPS 12 Contextual Narrative for Erosion, Flooding, and Existing Shore Protection PIs Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River.

FEPS 13 Contextual Narrative for “Beach Access” and “Barrier Beaches & Dunes PIs” Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River.

Performance Indicator Summaries

FEPS 14 Baird & Associates. Erosion Performance Indicator Summary.

FEPS 10 Barrier Beaches and Dunes PI Summary

FEPS 15 Baird & Associates. Flooding Performance Indicator Summary

FEPS 16 Sediment Budget PI Summary

FEPS 17 Baird & Associates. Existing Shoreline Protection Performance Indicator Summary.

FEPS 5 Baird & Associates. Beach Access Performance Indicator Summary

INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL RESPONSE MODEL

For Review

IERM 1 Descriptive Documentation; Limno-Tech, Inc. April 2005. Draft Development of an Integrated Ecological response Model (IERM) for the Lake Ontario-St Lawrence River Study.

IERM 2 IERM Model (version 4.1.1)

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×
For Background

IERM 3 Development of the IERM for the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Study (March 4, 2005 – Limno-Tech).

IERM 4 IERM User’s Manual (two versions: a) html version with hyperlinks; and b) text version which is also Attachment B of the descriptive documentation).

IERM 5 RS – 107 Wetlands Model for the Lower St. Lawrence River [French].

IERM 6 RS – 108 Species at Risk Model for the Lower St. Lawrence River [French].

ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP (ETWG)

For Review

ETWG 1 Introduction and Overview of the ETWG

ETWG 2 ETWG Contextual Narrative

For Background

ETWG 3 ETWG Year 3 Technical Report (Not officially reviewed and approved by Study Board; Final draft.).

WETLANDS

For Review

W 1 Wilcox, D. A., K. P. Kowalski, and M. L. Carlson. 2005. Year 3 Report of Relationship between Lake Ontario Water Levels and the Wetlands. Ann Arbor, MI: Great Lakes Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey.

W 2 Evaluation of Water Level Regulation Influences on Lake Ontario and Upper St. Lawrence River Coastal Wetland Plant Communities.

For Background1

W 5 Wetland Meadow Marsh PI

W 6 Wetland Meadow Marsh Fact Sheet.

IERM 5 RS -107 Wetlands Model for the Lower St. Lawrence River [French]2

1  

W 3 [models for submerged vegetation, Lower St. Lawrence River] and W 4 [Historic changes in the distribution of wetlands and biomass on Lac St. Pierre] have been removed from review. They have already been peer reviewed and have no impact on determining the Study’s regulation plan options.

2  

This a cross reference. Included under IERM since it is the Lower St. Lawrence River IERM modeling component.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×

SPECIES AT RISK

For Review

SAR 1 Water Fluctuation Impacts on Species At Risk Cornwall to Pointe due Lac [French].

SAR 2 Lake Ontario Species at Risk Supplement (Least Bittern and Black Tern Reproductive Index PIs).

SAR 3A Impact of Water Level Regulation on Nearshore Habitat Availability and SAR.

SAR 3B (Supplement) Impact on dunes and SAR.

SAR 4 Species at Risk Fish Supplement (Year 4 Modeling Group Report).

SAR 5 Lower St. Lawrence Species at Risk Final Report (2005) [French].

For Background
Species at Risk Perform Indicator Background Briefs

SAR 6 Black Tern

SAR 7 Bridle Shiner

SAR 8 Eastern Sand Darter

SAR 9 King Rail

SAR 10 Yellow Rail

SAR 11 Least Bittern

SAR 12 Spiny Soft Shell Turtle

IERM 6 RS – 108 Species at Risk Model for the Lower St. Lawrence River [French]3

GENERAL BACKGROUND ON THE LAKE ONTARIO ST. LAWRENCE RIVER STUDY

Background Reference Documents4

BACK 1 LOSLR Study General Overview Summary

BACK 2 IJC (International Joint Commission). 1999. Plan of Study for Criteria Review in the Orders of Approval for Regulation of Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Levels and Flows. Available on-line at http://www.ijc.org/php/publications/html/pos/pose.html. Accessed September 2005.

BACK 3 IJC Directive to the Study Board

3  

This is a cross reference – included under IERM since it is the Lower St. Lawrence SAR modeling component of the IERM.

4  

Other background resource used is the http://www.losl.org website.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×

BACK 4 Economic Advisors Issues and Findings with respect to economic evaluation of various Study metrics

BACK 5 Year 3 Study Report

BACK 6 Peer Review Triage Strategy (draft)

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×
Page 137
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×
Page 138
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×
Page 139
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×
Page 140
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B Document and Models for Review and Background." National Research Council. 2006. Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11481.
×
Page 141
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Since the 1950s,the International Joint Commission (IJC) of Canada and the United States has issued water regulation and management plans for Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. Changes in recreational, environmental, navigational and other uses of the water system have prompted the IJC to consider replacing the current water regulation plan in operation for more than 40 years. IJC’s goals for a replacement plan include sound scientific foundations, public participation, transparency in plan development and evaluation, and inclusion of environmental considerations. To help develop and select the new plan, the IJC supported a 5-year, $20 million Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study (LOSLR Study). The LOSLR Study uses models to compile and integrate data gathered from a series of commissioned studies of wetlands, species at risk, recreational boating, fisheries, coastal erosion and flooding, commercial navigation, hydropower, industrial, municipal and domestic water intakes, public information and education, and hydrologic modeling.

This report reviews a portion of the study that focused on wetlands and species at risk and three of the models that were used. The report finds that the overall breadth of the LOSLR study is impressive, and commends the scale and inclusiveness of the studies and models. In terms of informing decision making, however, the reviewed studies and models show deficiencies when evaluated against ten evaluation criteria, including treatment of uncertainty, quality control/quality assurance, thorough documentation, and empirical foundations. Among the report’s recommendations is a need for more thorough documentation of study methods and findings, stronger and more consistent quality control, and more attention to how uncertainty should be addressed to better inform decision making. This NRC study was conducted in collaboration with the Royal Society of Canada.

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