National Academies Press: OpenBook

Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts (2006)

Chapter: Appendix B: List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process." National Research Council. 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11699.
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Appendix B
List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process

Lee Anderson, NOAA Headquarters

Lisa Bee, National Airspace System Weather Office

Jim Block, Meteorlogix, Inc.

Harold Brooks, NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory

Brad Colman, NOAA National Weather Service

Paul Dallavale, NOAA Meteorological Development Lab

Kent Doggett, NOAA/NCEP Solar Environment Center

Jun Du, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Beth Faber, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center

J. Michael Fritsch, Pennsylvania State University

Aris Georgakakos, Georgia Institute of Technology

Eve Gruntfest, University of Colorado

Tom Hamill, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Kathy Jacobs, University of Arizona

Dale Jamieson, New York University

Ed Johnson, NOAA Headquarters

D.L. Johnson, NOAA Headquarters

Susan Joslyn, University of Washington

Scott Kiser, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water and Weather

Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia

Jeff Lazo, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Robert Livezey, NOAA NWS Climate Services

Alexander MacDonald, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Bill Mahoney, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Max Mayfield, NOAA Tropical Prediction Center

Jacqueline Meszaros, University of Washington, Bothell

Joel Myers, AccuWeather

Edward O’Lenic, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Tom Pagano, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service

Roger Pielke, Jr., University of Colorado

Roger Pulwarty, University of Colorado

Warren Qualley, Weathernews Americas, Inc.

Adrian Raftery, University of Washington

Frank Richards, NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development

David Ruth, NOAA/NWS Office of Science and Technology

Hyam Singer, Next Century Corporation

Leonard Smith, London School of Economics

John Sokich, NOAA Headquarters

Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., City of Los Angeles, Emergency Preparedness Department

Tom Stewart, State University of New York at Albany, Center for Policy Research

Gary Szatkowski, NOAA NWS

Zoltan Toth, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Jerry Wegiel, Air Force Weather Agency

Steve Zubrick, NOAA NWS Baltimore-Washington Forecast Office

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process." National Research Council. 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11699.
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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

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