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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Acronyms and Initialisms." National Research Council. 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11699.
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Appendix A
Acronyms and Initialisms

3d-Var three-dimensional variational assimilation

4d-Var four-dimensional variational assimilation

ACE Advanced Composition Explorer

AFD Area Forecast Discussion

AHPS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

AMS American Meteorological Society

ASC ACE Science Center

AWC Aviation Weather Center

BMA Bayesian model averaging

BSE bovine spongiform encephalitis

CAS Constructed Analog on Soil moisture

CCA canonical correlation analysis

CCFP Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

CCMC Community Coordinated Modeling Center

CDC Climate Diagnostic Center

CFS Climate Forecast System

CISM Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

CMC Canadian Meteorological Centre

CNRFC California Nevada River Forecast Center

COLA Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

CONUS Continental United States

CPC Climate Prediction Center

CRPS Continuous Ranked Probability Score

CTB Climate Test Bed

DA data assimilation

DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed

DTaP diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis

DTC Developmental Testbed Center

EC Equal Chances

ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

EMC Environmental Modeling Center

EMWIN Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

EnKF ensemble Kalman filters

EnKS ensemble Kalman smoothers

ENSO El Niño/Southern Oscillation

EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

ESP ensemble streamflow prediction

ESRL Earth System Research Laboratory

FNMOC Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

FOS Family of Services

GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GMB EMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch

GODAS Global Ocean Data Assimilation System

GSI Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation

HPC Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

HSS Heidke skill score

IFPS Interactive Forecast Preparation System

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRI International Research Institute

IWIN Interactive Weather Information Network

LAF Lagged Average Forecast

MDL Meteorological Development Laboratory

MMB EMC Mesoscale Modeling Branch

MOS Model Output Statistics

MST Minimum Spanning Tree

NAEFS North American Ensemble Forecasting System

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCDC National Climatic Data Center

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Acronyms and Initialisms." National Research Council. 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11699.
×

NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NDFD National Digital Forecast Database

NDGD National Digital Guidance Database

NGDC National Geophysical Data Center

NHC National Hurricane Center

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOMADS National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

NSSL National Severe Storms Lab

NWP numerical weather prediction

NWS National Weather Service

NWR NOAA Weather Radio

NWWS NOAA Weather Wire Service

OAR Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

OCN Optimal Climate Normals

OHD Office of Hydrologic Development

PDA personal digital assistant

PDD Product/Service Description Document

PDF probability density function

PoP Probability of Precipitation

QPF quantitative precipitation forecast

RAL NCAR Research Applications Laboratory

RFC River Forecast Center

RFC Regional Forecast Center

RFP Request for Proposals

RISA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment

ROC Relative Operating Characteristic

RPC Rapid Prototyping Center

RPS Ranked Probability Score

RSM Regional Spectral Model

SAB Science Advisory Board

SEC Space Environment Center

SLP sea level pressure

SMLR Screening Multiple Linear Regression

SPC Storm Prediction Center

SREF short-range ensemble forecast

SSI NCEP Spectral Statistical Interpolation

SST sea surface temperature

TAF Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

TAR IPCC Third Assessment Report

THORPEX The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment

TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

TPC Tropical Prediction Center

USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

WFO Weather Forecast Office

WGNE Working Group on Numerical Experimentation

WMO World Meteorological Organization

WRF-AR Weather Research and Forecasting Advanced Research

WRF-NMM Weather Research and Forecasting Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model

WWRP World Weather Research Programme

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Acronyms and Initialisms." National Research Council. 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11699.
×
Page 107
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Acronyms and Initialisms." National Research Council. 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11699.
×
Page 108
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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

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