RESEARCH AND PLANS FOR COVERAGE MEASUREMENT IN THE 2010 CENSUS: INTERIM ASSESSMENT
Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census
Robert Bell and Michael L. Cohen, Editors
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no. YA1323-04-CN-0006 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Census Bureau. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-0112521). Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Research Council (2007). Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census: Interim Assessment. Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census, Robert Bell and Michael L. Cohen (Eds.). Committee on National Statistics. Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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PANEL ON COVERAGE EVALUATION AND CORRELATION BIAS IN THE 2010 CENSUS
ROBERT BELL (Chair),
AT&T Research Laboratories, Florham Park, NJ
LAWRENCE D. BROWN,
Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
RODERICK J. LITTLE,
Departments of Biostatistics and Statistics, University of Michigan
Department of Statistics, Harvard University
JEFFREY S. PASSEL,
Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC
Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles (emeritus)
ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY,
Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Study Director
DANIEL L. CORK, Senior Program Officer
AGNES E. GASKIN, Senior Program Assistant
BARBARA A. BAILAR, Consultant
MEYER ZITTER, Consultant
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2006-2007
WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair),
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
Department of Economics, University of Maryland, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology
ROBERT BELL, AT&T
Research Laboratories, Florham Park, NJ
Lincoln Technologies, Inc., Waltham, MA
Department of Economics, University of Maryland
V. JOSEPH HOTZ,
Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Colorado at Denver and Health Sciences Center
Department of Sociology, Princeton University
Department of Statistics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan
Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University
SAMUEL H. PRESTON,
Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director
In order to develop a sufficient understanding of the Census Bureau's coverage measurement plans for 2010, the Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census met often with Census Bureau staff. The panel met three times in plenary session (August 2-3, 2004; May 2-3, 2005; and December 6-7, 2005) and four times in small groups (December 14, 2004; January 24, 2005; July 21, 2005; and February 2, 2006). The latter sessions were devoted to more focused issues. In each of these meetings, Census Bureau staff made presentations that described the results of current research efforts and directions for further work. In addition, the Census Bureau made available to the panel staff (as sworn Census Bureau agents) data from the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation for further investigation of the logistic regression models that the Census Bureau may use in 2010 to replace poststratification in the estimation of net coverage error.
The panel wishes to thank the many people who contributed to our work. The initial idea for the study came from Hermann Habermann, then deputy director of the Census Bureau. Other Census Bureau personnel were also instrumental in providing assistance. The contracting officer for this study was Philip Gbur, whose efforts should serve as a model of how best to provide for smooth communications between a National Research Council (NRC) panel and its sponsor. Donna Kostanich and her staff gave excellent summary presentations on the status of their various research efforts. Also, along with Philip Gbur, Donna Kostanich established a friendly, collegial environment between her staff and the panel.
We thank the following coverage measurement staff for their presentations: Tamara Adams, Paul Livermore Auer, William Bell, Pete Davis, James Farber, Gregg Diffendal, Rick Griffin, Tom Mule, Mary Mulry, Sally Obenski, Doug Olson, Robin Pennington, Preston J. Waite, and David Whitford.
The Census Bureau also provided on-site access to the A.C.E. Research Database. Huilin Li (University of Maryland) carried out many difficult computations on this database at the direction of the panel and staff, and we thank her for her patience and expertise.
As consultant to the panel, Barbara Bailar provided important insights on the history of coverage measurement and its implications for 2010. Also, Roger Tourangeau, a member of a sister NRC panel on residence rules in the decennial census, assisted the panel in learning about probes for alternative residences on both the coverage follow-up interview and the census coverage measurement interview.
The panel is indebted to Michael Cohen, who served as primary study director to the panel and who drafted much of the report in response to the panel’s direction. Christine McShane provided expert technical editing of the draft report. Finally, Christine Chen, Lance Hunter, and Agnes Gaskin provided excellent administrative support for the panel.
It has been a pleasure overseeing this very talented and collaborative panel. In particular, panel member Alan Zaslavsky stands out for his detailed rewriting and editing of a preliminary draft of this report.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Eugene Ericksen, Department of Sociology, Temple University; David McMillen, External Affairs Liaison’s Office, National Archives and Records Administration, Washington, DC; Samuel H. Preston, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania; Keith Rust, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD; Bruce D. Spencer, Department of Statistics, Northwestern University; and Martin T. Wells, Department of Social Statistics, Cornell University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the report was overseen by Henry Riecken, Professor of Behavioral Sciences, Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania, and Ingram Olkin, Department of Statistics, Stanford University. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report, however, rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.