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10 The Los Angeles Experience HISTORY Los Angeles was a small quiet town for much of the 19th century. The completion of the first railroad into Los Angeles, in 1876, helped to change all of that by connecting it to San Francisco, and in 1885 another line connected Los Angeles to the eastern United States. Oil was discovered in 1892, which further spurred the population boom and also made Los Angeles one of the worldâs most important suppliers of petroleum in the early 20th century, by some accounts providing one-quarter of the worldâs supply. The population surged from just over 5,000 in 1870 to more than 100,000 in 1900, and by 1930, the population was 1.2 million people. Two key interventions allowed the population to swell the way it did. First, an aqueduct was developed (at the time the worldâs longest) and was completed in 1913, supplying ample water to the region. The Los Angeles Water Department, which was responsible for constructing the aqueduct, went on to become the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), now the cityâs publicly owned power company. In addition to sufficient water resources, planners sought land, and with a reliable source of water in tow, Los Angeles in 1915 began annexing small towns without their own water resources. Los Angeles had also annexed a small strip of land along the San Pedro Bay, which had been selected by a federal panel to be the site for development of a major port, which in 1907 was officially founded as the Port of Los Angeles (POLA, 2007). This pattern of development was also influenced by the electric rail car s Â ystem of Pacific Electric, and by 1932, Los Angeles had grown to a city covering 1,165Â km2, which was incidentally the year it first hosted the Olympic Games. World War II brought about an economic boom, as Los Angeles developed into a center for production of aircraft, war supplies, and munitions. Shipbuilding 275
276 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION became the Port of Los Angelesâ primary economic activity. But with increased production and activity came an increase in air pollution. The first recognized episodes of smog in Los Angeles occurred in the summer of 1943. Visibility was limited to only three blocks and residents suffered from smarting eyes, respiratory discomfort, nausea, and vomiting. The phenomenon was termed a âgas attack,â and was blamed on a nearby butadiene plant, but the situation did not improve when the plant was shut down. Smog events continued to plague Los Angeles throughout the 1940s (Figure 10-1). The post-World War II economic boom was characterized by lateral develop- ment into the San Fernando Valley, enabled by the creation of a freeway system which would grow to become one of the worldâs largest. Right around this time, many urban regions in North America began phasing out electric streetcars in favor of buses, and as Los Angelesâ streetcars went out of business, personal auto- mobiles filled the void. In addition to being a major consumer of automobiles, Los Angeles was also the United Statesâ second largest manufacturer behind Detroit, and also a major manufacturer of tires. FIGURE 10-1â View of part of the Los Angeles Civic Center masked by smog in 1948. SOURCE: Los Angeles Times photographic archive, UCLA Library.
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 277 During this economic boom, Los Angeles also developed severe air quality problems. The City of Los Angeles began its air pollution control program in 1945, establishing the Bureau of Smoke Control in its health department. On June 10, 1947, California Governor Earl Warren signed into law the Air Pollu- tion Control Act, authorizing the creation of an Air Pollution Control District (APCD) in every county of the state. The Los Angeles County APCD was then establishedâthe first of its kind in the United States. During the 1940s and 1950s, air pollution control focused on obvious sources, such as backyard burning and incinerators, open burning at garbage dumps, and smoke emissions from factories (SCAQMD, 1997). In 1953, the Los Angeles County APCD started requiring controls to reduce hydroÂcarbon emissions from industrial gasoline storage tanks, gasoline tank trucks, and underground storage tanks at service stations. California officially adopted the Ringelmann System, which measures the opacity of smoke arising from stacks and other sources. During the 1950s and 1960s, local air quality officials implemented the use of vapor recovery equipment for the bulk transfer of gasoline, regulated petroleum- based solvents, and required permits for rendering plants that processed animal waste. But air quality continued to worsen due to the rapid growth in the number of automobiles and the increased miles traveled as a result of increased urbanization and the layout of the Los Angeles urban area (Figure 10-2). By the mid-1960s, total oxidant (ozone plus NO2) levels approached 800 ppb and 24-hour-average PM10 concentrations exceeded 600 Âµg/m3. In 1959, the California Legislature established the California Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Board to test emissions and to certify emission control devices. In 1961, the first automotive emissions control technology in the United States, Positive Crankcase Ventilation, was mandated by California to control hydro- carbon crankcase emissions. In 1966, California imposed initial regulations for automobile tailpipe emissions for hydrocarbons and CO, the first of their kind in the United States. The California Highway Patrol began random roadside inspec- tions of vehicle smog control devices. In the 1960s, regulators took the first step to clean up motor vehicle fuels by reducing the amount of highly Âphotochemically reactive olefins in gasoline. In 1967, Californiaâs Legislature passed the Mulford-Carrell Act, which combined two Department of Health bureausâthe Bureau of Air Sanitation and the Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Boardâto establish the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Since its first meeting on February 8, 1968, in Sacramento, CARB has worked with the public, the business sector, and local governments to find solutions to Californiaâs air pollution problem. The resulting state emission standards set by CARB continue to outpace the rest of the nation, and have prompted the development of new control technologies for industrial facilities and motor vehicles. Starting in 1970, the federal government phased out lead in gasoline. In 1975, the first oxidizing catalytic converters to reduce CO and hydrocarbon tailpipe
278 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION FIGURE 10-2â Photograph of the Pasadena Freeway, 1950s. SOURCE: EPA.
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 279 emissions came into use as part of CARBâs Motor Vehicle Emission Control Pro- gram. This is the stateâs first example of âtechnology forcingâ regulations, com- pelling industry to develop a new pollution-control capability by a set deadline. In 1977, the first three-way catalytic converter to control hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and CO was introduced. During the late 1970s, Los Angeles and later the entire state required vehicle inspections for measuring emissions and inspecting emission control equipment, which in 1984 evolved into the California Smog Check Program administered by the state Bureau of Automotive Repair. CARB has pioneered a motor fuels specification enforcement program since 1977, in response to the adoption of a state Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) standard. Other regulations were adopted to further control the chemical properties of gasoline by limiting lead, sulfur, phosphorus, and manganese, and to control the sulfur content of vehicular diesel fuel in Los Angeles. In 1988, CARB adopted regulations effective on 1994 model cars requir- ing that they be equipped with âon-board diagnosticâ (OBD) computer systems to monitor emission performance and emission control equipment. Owners are alerted when there is a problem. All 1996 and newer vehicles less than 14,000 lbs. (e.g., passenger cars, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles) throughout the United States are equipped with OBD II systems, the second generation of OBD require- ments. In 1990, CARB adopted standards for cleaner burning fuels (also called Phase I Reformulated Gasoline) resulting in gasoline composition changes that reduced vehicle emissions and enabled advances in catalytic converter technology. This consisted of lowering previously regulated components (RVP and sulfur); requiring the use of oxygenates year round; and regulating additional components (benzene, total aromatics, and olefins). This was followed by the introduction of Phase II Reformulated Gasoline (also known as cleaner burning gasoline) in 1996. In 1999, the Board amended and adopted Low-Emission Vehicle regula- tions, known as LEVII, which set stringent emission standards for most minivans, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles, to reduce emissions of these vehicles to the level of emissions from passenger cars by 2007. PHYSICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIETAL SETTING Today the Los Angeles metropolitan area is the second-most populated urban area in the United States, after the New York Metropolitan Area. Californiaâs population more than quadrupled following World War II, growing from under 7Â million in 1940 to over 30 million in 1990 (McConnell, 1992). About 16 mil- lion peopleâ7 percent of the entire U.S. population, and more than half the population of Californiaânow live in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) (Croes and Fujita, 2003). Los Angeles has a diverse economy of many heavy and light industries, including two major ports, oil production and refining, steel produc- tion, aerospace manufacturing, and coal-fired power plants. The combined ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach make up the largest container complex in the
280 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION United States. Due in part to its âinventionâ of the suburb and freeway, it now has the greatest number of cars, trucks, and miles of roadways of any city in the world, altogether 27 intertwining freeways which handle roughly 100 vehicle- miles traveled (160 km) daily. These mobile and stationary sources of air pollution, emitted into an air basin surrounded by 3,000-meter mountains with prevailing oceanic winds, and capped by a persistent thermal inversion under sunny skies, created the highest levels of photochemical air pollution ever recorded. But, no city has ever made greater progress toward air quality goals, with air pollution levels now less than one-fourth of those in the past, during a period when the population doubled and vehicle miles traveled quadrupled. The economy has grown an average of nearly 5.2 percent annually over the past 10 years, surpassing the U.S. economyâs aver- age growth rate in recent years (LAEDC, 2006). The Los Angeles metropolitan area includes the City of Los Angeles and consists of five counties: Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura, and Orange. It is an area of complex terrain bounded by the Pacific Ocean to the west; to the north by narrow coastal mountains and valleys, the San Joaquin Valley, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains; and to the south and east by deserts (see FigureÂ 10â3). The SoCAB consists of most of this area and is the air quality jurisdiction for the South Coast Air Quality Management District. The area of the basin is about 17,500 km2 of which the city of Los Angeles occupies 1,291 km2. Although the air basin boundaries were established with topographical features in mind, winds often transport pollutants from one basin to another. Southern California is in the semi-permanent high-pressure zone of the eastern Pacific. During summer, average temperatures are 25Â°C, with maximum daily readings often exceeding 35Â°C. Precipitation events are rare. Frequent and persistent temperature inversions are caused by subsidence of descending air that warms when it is compressed over cool, moist marine air. These inversions often occur during periods of maximum solar radiation which create daytime mixed layers of ~1,000 m thickness, though the top of this layer can be lower during extreme ozone episodes (Blumenthal et al., 1978). During summer, the sea-land breeze is strong during the day with a weak land-sea breeze at night. Owing to the high summer temperatures and extensive urbanization in the SoCAB, the land surface temperature does not usually fall below the water temperature at night, and nocturnal and morning winds are less vigorous than daytime winds. The land surface cools sufficiently to create surface inversions with depths as shallow as ~50 m. Surface heating usually erodes the surface and marine layers within a few hours after sunrise each day. Summertime flow patterns are from the west and south during the morning, switching to predominantly westerly winds by the afternoon. The land/sea breeze circulation moves air back and forth between the SoCAB and the Pacific Ocean, as well as along the coast to other air basins. These wind flow patterns are described by Smith et al. (1972), Keith and Selik (1977), and Hayes et al. (1984).
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 281 FIGURE 10-3â Map of the Los Angeles Basin. SOURCE: California Air Resources Board. In addition to these general features, many smaller features affect the move- ment of pollutants within the SoCAB. Heating of the San Gabriel and San B Â ernardino Mountains during the daytime engenders upslope flows that can transport pollutants from the surface into the upper parts of, and sometimes above, the mixed layer. When the slopes cool after sunset, the denser air flows back into the SoCAB with pollutants entrained in it. These elevated layers can also transport horizontally towards the coast as part of the sea breeze return flow, and can be brought back to the surface in the morning through fumigation and subsidence processes (Lu and Turco, 1994). Convergence zones occur where terrain and Âpressure gradients direct wind flow in opposite directions, resulting in an upwelling of air. Smith et al. (1984) have identified convergence zones at Elsinore (McElroy et al., 1982; Smith and Edinger, 1984), the San Fernando Valley (Edinger and Helvey, 1961), El Mirage, the Coachella Valley, and Ventura County. Rosenthal (1972) and Mass and Albright (1989) identified the Catalina Eddy, a counterclockwise mesoscale circulation within the Southern California Bight, as a mechanism for transporting air pollution. This eddy circulation trans- ports pollutants from the SoCAB to Ventura County, especially after the SoCAB
282 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION ozone levels drop, due to wind ventilation caused by an approaching low-pressure trough from the northwest. Transport also occurs from the SoCAB to the Mojave Desert. Winds are directly related to the pressure field, which, in summer, results from a consistent mesoscale component added to a varying synoptic-scale com- ponent (Green et al., 1992a, 1992b). SOURCES AND LEVELS OF AIR POLLUTION Mobile sources such as gasoline-fueled vehicles (10 million cars and light trucks for 16 million people) and diesel-powered vehicles (250,000 trucks and buses) play a major role in Los Angelesâ air quality problems. Because of proxim- ity to the Pacific Ocean and geography, the meteorology is particularly conducive to generating poor air quality. Los Angelesâ pollutant formation potential is the worst in the United States, due to its unique combination of recirculation patterns, stagnation, inversions, and topography. The Los Angeles Air Basinâs carrying capacity (an estimate of the maximum atmospheric burden a region can have and still attain air quality standards) per capita is five times less than Houstonâs (36Â versus 181 lbs VOC and NOx/person/year), which has similar ozone peaks. As a result of the stateâs poor air quality and large population, California resi- dents receive more than 40 percent of the nationâs population-weighted exposure to ozone values above the national 8-hour standard of 0.08 ppm, and more than 60 250 18 Federal 1-Hr Ozone Maximum Standard Annual Number of Days Greater than 16 200 14 Population (millions) 12 150 10 8 100 6 50 4 2 0 0 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 Days Greater Than Ozone Standard Population FIGURE 10-4â The South Coast air quality improves despite increased population growth from 1975 to 2004. 10-4
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 283 percent of the population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 values above the previous annual standard of 15Â Âµg/m3. Southern California residents account for over 70 percent of the total U.S. exposure to exceedances of the 1-hour-average national ozone standard, and particle concentrations in SoCAB exceed Californiaâs new annual-average ambient air quality standards for PM2.5 (12 Âµg/m3) and PM10 (20Â Âµg/m3) by at least a factor of 2. Although air quality in the SoCAB and other air basins in southern California has improved significantly, attainment of U.S. and California ambient ozone standards remains a long-term goal. In the SoCAB, which has the most extensive history of particle monitoring in California, monthly PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations vary by less than a factor of 2 throughout the year, and peak during October and November (Dolislager and Motallebi, 1999). PM2.5 is dominated by carbon (elemental and organic) and ammonium nitrate, especially in the eastern part of the basin where NO x emis- sions are photochemically processed to nitric acid and pass over intensive dairy operations with high ammonia emissions. Sulfate concentrations are low (less than 5 Âµg/m3) due to the lack of coal combustion and the use of low-sulfur fuels in California. PM10 is composed of roughly equal fractions of PM2.5 and coarse material dominated by dust, but also including nitrate particles formed from the reaction of nitric acid with sea salt particles. PM is Californiaâs greatest challenge and is responsible for over 6,500 premature deaths per year (about 10 times greater than for ozone and 20 times greater than for cancer cases from known toxic air contaminants). Air pollution is estimated to cost Californians $51 billion per yearâ$4 billion per year in direct medical costs, with the remainder of the value assigned to premature death. CARB calculates that California gains $3 in health benefits for every $1 it currently invests in air pollution control. On-road mobile sources are the single largest source category for ozone precursor pollutants, accounting for about 64, 45, and 69 percent of average daily NOX, VOC, and CO, respectively. Most of the on-road emissions are due to gasoline vehicles, but diesel vehicles contribute substantially to NOX emissions. Second to on-road mobile sources, stationary and area-wide sources are significant sources of VOC, while other mobile sources are currently a less important source of VOC. In contrast, other mobile sources generate relatively large emissions of NOX, while stationary and area-wide sources are less important NOX conÂtributors. The vast majority of CO emissions are associated with on-road and other mobile sources. Los Angeles historically experienced the most severe smog in the United States, but air pollution levels have improved dramatically. The health-based stan- dards for lead, CO, NO2, SO2, and sulfates have all been attained, and peak ozone levels have dropped 75 percent relative to levels in the mid-1960s. Â California has also had success with PM10 and air toxics. Prior to the implementation of emission reduction measures beginning in the early 1960s, hourly averaged ozone mixing ratios approaching 0.70 ppm were reported in the SoCAB, and StageÂ III episodes (ozone exceeding 0.50 ppm) were relatively frequent events.
284 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION Four decades of progressively more stringent controls on emissions of NOX and VOC, have significantly reduced the frequency and intensity of excessive ozone levels in the SoCAB. The Basin recorded 167 days exceeding the National Ambi- ent Air Â Quality Standard of 0.12 ppm maximum hourly average in 1980, 158 days in 1985, 131 days in 1990, 98 days in 1995, and 33 days in 2000 (CARB, 2002). The number of days exceeding the more stringent California Ambient Air Quality Standard of 0.09 ppm for a maximum hourly average declined from 210 in 1980 to 115 in 2000. The maximum hourly average mixing ratios of ozone in the SoCAB declined during this 20-year period from 0.49 ppm to 0.18 ppm. This progress has been achieved despite almost a 50 percent increase in population and a doubling of vehicle miles traveled, and the growth of California into the fifth largest economy in the world. Since 1989, when a permanent particulate monitor- ing network was deployed, PM10 concentrations have declined about 5Â percent per year in the SoCAB (Dolislager and Motallebi, 1999). The air quality improvement was achieved through significant emission reductions (CARB, 2002). Emissions of CO and VOC (and to a lesser extent NOX) from new passenger vehicles are reduced by a factor of a hundred in com- parison to pre-control vehicles in 1963, and the standards are now applicable for 100,000 miles. Stationary source NOX emissions have been reduced by a factor of 10 since 1980 using low-NOX burners, selective catalytic reduction, cleaner fuels (i.e., natural gas), vapor recovery, and low-VOC coatings and solvents. From 1980 to 2000, statewide emissions from passenger vehicles (NOX + VOC) decreased from 5,500 to 2,400 tons/day and CO from 31,000 to 12,000 tons/day, and stationary sources (NOX + VOC) from 2,800 to 1,200 tons/day (Figures 10-5 and 10-6). Californiaâs economy grew by 75 percent despite the $10 billion cost per year for air pollution measures adopted since 1990. Greenhouse Gases Over the past century California has seen changes in climate-related condi- tions such as average temperature (up seven-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit), sea level (up 3 to 8 inches), spring run-off (decreased by 12 percent), and the timing of snowmelt and spring bloom (advanced by 1 to 3 weeks) (Cal/EPA, 2002). Knowles and Cayan (2004) project that the Sierra snowpack that functions as the stateâs largest reservoir could shrink by a third by 2060, and to half its historic size by 2090. Californiaâs famous vineyards, the milk industry, and ski resorts would then no longer be viable by 2100. Environmental actions are strongly supported by the public. The July 2004 Special Survey on Californians and the Environment, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, found that 8 in 10 Californians support the state law that requires automakers to further reduce the emission of greenhouse gases from new cars in California by 2009.
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 285 8000 7000 6000 Short Tons per Day 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 On-Road Mobile Sources Stationary Sources Off-Road Mobile Sources Area-Wide Sources FIGURE 10-5â Statewide ROG emission trend. 6000 10-5 5000 Short Tons per Day 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 On-Road Mobile Sources Stationary Sources Off-Road Mobile Sources Area-Wide Sources FIGURE 10-6â Statewide NOx emission trend. 10-6
286 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION CARB considers greenhouse gases to be ozone and particle precursors as climate change can affect urban air pollution. Transportation is Californiaâs Âlargest source of carbon dioxide, with passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks creat- ing more than 30 percent of total climate change emissions. Due to advances in vehicle technology, it is now possible to reduce such emissions without sacrificing performance or other desirable vehicle attributes. In 2004, CARB adopted regula- tions that reduce greenhouse gases emitted by passenger vehicles and light trucks, although this measure is being litigated by the automotive industry. Reductions in greenhouse gases on the order of 30 percent can be achieved for all vehicle types using technologies already deployed in production vehicles. The costs to consumers are on the order of a few hundred to a thousand dollars per vehicle, and are more than offset by reduced operating costs of up to $5,000. Gas-electric hybrid vehicles and other technologies can achieve greater reductions. The standards adopted by the Board phase in during the 2009 through 2016 model years. When fully phased in, the near-term (2009-2012) standards will result in about a 22 percent reduction as compared to the 2002 fleet, and the mid- term (2013-2016) standards will result in about a 30 percent reduction. Several technologies stand out as providing significant reductions in emissions at favor- able costs. These include discrete variable valve lift or camless valve actuation to optimize valve operation, rather than relying on fixed valve timing and lift as has historically been done; turbocharging to boost power and allow for engine downsizing; improved multispeed transmissions; and improved air conditioning systems that operate optimally, leak less, and/or use an alternative refrigerant. CARB estimates that the proposed regulation will reduce climate change emissions from the light-duty passenger vehicle fleet by an estimated 87,700 CO2-equivalent tons per day statewide in 2020, and by 155,200 CO2-equivalent tons per day in 2030. This equates to an 18 percent reduction in climate changes emissions from the light-duty fleet in 2020 and a 27 percent reduction in 2030. CARBâs economic analysis shows that as these expenditures occur, jobs and personal income increase. Jobs increase by 3,000 in 2010, by 53,000 in 2020, and by 77,000 in 2030, as compared to the baseline economy without the proposed regulation. Similarly, income grows by $170 million in 2010, by $4.7 billion in 2020, and by $7.3 billion 2030. Greenhouse gas emissions from California light-duty vehicles are a small fraction of the global total. Thus the California regulation, viewed in isola- tion, will not wholly mitigate the potential consequences of climate change in California. Nevertheless, there are several compelling reasons to move forward, even while recognizing that by itself a California regulation will not solve the global climate change problem. First of all, the regulation is a âno regretsâ policy that reduces climate change emissions from vehicles, while providing economic benefits to the state. Second, California is not acting in isolation. Other states in the United States, and other countries, have already taken or are contemplating steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a variety of sectors and sources.
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 287 Finally, the longstanding technology-forcing role of California regulation should not be understated. There have been many instances where other jurisdictions have adopted motor vehicle controls that were pioneered in California. Thus there is potential for the regulation to spread to other jurisdictions and thereby add momentum to the existing initiatives that are under way around the globe. ENERGY RESOURCES AND USE California consumes nearly 9 EJ (slightly more than Italyâs total consump- tion) of energy annually, including over 690 million barrels of oil (4.2 EJ). However, on a per capita energy consumption basis, it ranks 48th out of 50 U.S. states and has become a world leader in electricity created by renewable energy resources, and a recognized national leader in energy efficiency (CEC, 2006). In fact, the renewable energy industry can be credited with providing 30,000 jobs and generating $2 billion in tax revenues for the state. Los Angeles and Southern California in general are highly reliant on petro- leum and natural gas for their energy needs. Petroleum accounts for approximately 47 percent of energy consumption (mostly for transportation fuels), followed by natural gas at 28 percent (SCAG, 2006). Renewable (non-hydro), nuclear, and hydroelectric power account for 6.5 percent, 4.5 percent, and 4 percent, respectively, while coal accounts for less than 1 percent of total consumption. FigureÂ 10-7 provides a sectoral breakdown of energy consumption and illustrates that transportation is the dominant consumer. California is also highly reliant on energy imports, and in addition to electricity imports from the southwest United States (for southern California) and the Pacific Northwest, the state imports 63 percent of its petroleum and 84 percent of its natural gas from outside its borders (CEC, 2005). Moreover, nearly 42 percent of Californiaâs petroleum comes from foreign sources, and 23 percent of its natural gas comes from Canada. Although California does possess petroleum reserves, consumption outpaced supplies long ago; and 2005 marked the first year that foreign petroleum supplies (excluding Alaska) made up a larger share than domestic supplies. Demand for transportation fuels increased 48 percent from 1985 to 2005 (CEC, 2005). In 2005, Southern California consumed approximately 8.8 billion gallons of fuel, and after an increase between 1995 and 2000, per capita vehicle fuel consumption has remained relatively constant, around 485 gallons annually (SCAG, 2006). Figure 10-8 illustrates the regionâs electricity generation by source and reveals that natural gas is the primary fuel for electrical generation, followed by coal and nuclear. The two major electricity providers in the Southern California region are Southern California Edison (SCE) and LADWP. SCE is privately owned and provides nearly 70 percent of the regionâs electricity, while LADWP is These figures do not total 100 percent because the region is a net importer of electricity. Therefore, electrical imports (produced primarily by coal or natural gas) totaled 9 percent of energy use.
288 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION Residential 18.5% Transportation 39.0% Commercial 18.5% Industrial 24.0% FIGURE 10-7â Energy consumption in Southern California by economic sector, 2005. SOURCE: SCAG, 2006. Coal 21% Hydro 10-7 10% Non-hydro Nuclear renewable 20% 15% Natural Gas 34% FIGURE 10-8â Electricity production in Southern California by source, 2005. SOURCE: SCAG, 2006. a considerably smaller and publicly owned utility, providing around 20 percent of the regionâs electricity including all of Los Angeles. Both utilities have set goals of reaching renewable energy generation targets of 20 percent by 2010; SCEâs 10-8 targets are guided by Californiaâs Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which mandates that investor-owned utilities achieve specific renewable energy targets,
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 289 while LADWPâs target was established by the utility itself (CEC, 2007). LADWP and other publicly owned utilities are not currently bound by Californiaâs RPS. Californiaâs aggressive policies mandating the use of renewable energy have led to other states adopting or considering similar standards. However, the devel- opment of these new resources has been slower than anticipated (CEC, 2005). Californiaâs similarly aggressive policies on energy efficiency have been more successful and are a major reason that Californians have been able to stabilize per capita electricity consumption since the 1970s, while the rest of the United States experienced an increase. Efficiency programs and standards have allowed C Â alifornia to reduce peak demand by approximately 22 percent over a business- as-usual scenario, and at a fraction of the cost of what additional generation might have required (Rosenfeld, 2007). Another important alternative which California is currently developing is distributed generation (see Chapter 5), and the most efficient and cost-effective form is co-generation through CHP (CEC, 2005). California has more than 9,000 MW of CHP capacity, though a major challenge to further development seems to be the lack of direct access to retail markets. This and nearly all other energy issues fall under the purview of the ÂCalifornia Energy Commission. The Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission (as the Commission is formally called) was established by the Legislature in 1974 to address the energy challenges facing the state. Created by the Warren-Alquist Act which was signed into law by then-Governor Ronald R Â eagan, the Energy Commission is the stateâs principal energy policy and plan- ning organization. Since 1974, successive administrations with bipartisan legisla- tive support have enacted more than 100 separate laws to assist the Commission in implementing state energy policy. The Governor appoints the five members of the Commission to staggered 5-year terms and selects a chair and vice chair from among the members every 2 years. The appointments require Senate approval. By law, one commission member must be selected from the public at large. The remaining commissioners represent the fields of engineering/physical science, economics, environmental protection, and law. The Commission nominates and the Governor also appoints a Public Adviser, for a term of 3 years, who is responsible for ensuring that the public and other interested parties are adequately represented at all Commission proceedings. The Public Adviserâs accessibility affords the citizens of California a unique opportu- nity to be a part of energy decision making which may affect their lives. The Commission receives its funding from an electricity consumption sur- charge collected by the electric utilities through customersâ bills and is then transferred to the state treasury. CECâs budget for FY 2007/8 is $417.3 million. If an average residential customer uses 600 kWh of electricity per month, they would pay $0.132 per month toward the Energy Commissionâs operation. Federal money for specific energy-efficiency programs supplements the Commissionâs budget. The Energy Commission also manages the Public Good surcharge funds
290 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION used for energy research and development and renewable energy programs. These funds are collected from customers of the investor-owned utilities. Half of the energy savings in California were made by separating utility profits from selling more energy (Chu, 2007). POLLUTION AND ENERGY POLICIES AND THE APPROACH TO AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT California has adopted many emission standards which are more strin- gent than the U.S. standards. These include those for light- and medium-duty v Â ehiclesâexhaust and evaporative standards, for handheld and non-handheld small off-road equipment, personal watercraft, in-board motors for boats, and portable engines. Although Los Angeles has made significant progress by attain- ing health-based air quality standards for lead, SO2, sulfates, NO2, and CO, and for reducing peak ozone levels and PM, there are still many days of unacceptable ozone and particle levels. California sets its own health-based ambient air quality standards, which are generally more stringent than those set by the U.S. Environmental Protec- tion Agency (EPA). Even though North American agencies rely on many of the same human exposure and epidemiological studies, the standards of these agen- cies have striking differences (see Table 10-1). In addition, the use of allowable exceedances, spatial averaging of monitoring data, and natural (e.g., dust storms) and exceptional event (e.g., prescribed burn) exceptions can greatly reduce the stringency of these standards. As noted above, Californiaâs air pollution control program began in 1959, when the California Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Board was created. Sub- sequently, under the Federal Air Quality Act of 1967, California was granted a waiver to adopt and enforce its own emission standards for new vehicles, in recognition of Californiaâs unique air quality need to set more stringent emis- sion control requirements compared to the rest of the nation. The CARB formed in 1967 has the ability to set mobile source emission standards which are more stringent than the EPA, except for sources involved in interstate commerce: trains, planes, ships, and interstate trucking. Other states, like many in the northeastern United States, have taken advantage of their option to adopt Californiaâs mobile source emission standards. CARB also sets regulations for consumer products, paints, and solvents, and identifies and controls toxic air contaminants. It coordinates the efforts of federal, state, and local authorities to meet ambient air quality standards, while minimizing the impacts on the economy. While local air quality management districts have the primary authority to control emissions from stationary and areas sources, CARB can assume this authority if local agencies do not develop or implement their air quality plans. Californians support and want air pollution controlâ65 percent of Californians put environmental protection over economic growth (although
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 291 TABLE 10-1â Ambient Air Quality Standards for North America Pollutant Averaging Period United States California Mexico Canada SO2 1 hour â 655Â Âµg/mÂ³ 350Â Âµg/mÂ³ 160Â Âµg/mÂ³ 1 day 365Â Âµg/mÂ³ 105Â Âµg/mÂ³ 80Â Âµg/mÂ³ 30Â Âµg/mÂ³ NO2 1 hour â 470Â Âµg/mÂ³ 400Â Âµg/mÂ³ â 1 year 100Â Âµg/mÂ³ â â 60Â Âµg/mÂ³ PM10 1 day 150Â Âµg/mÂ³ 50Â Âµg/mÂ³ 150Â Âµg/mÂ³ 50Â Âµg/mÂ³ 1 year â 20Â Âµg/mÂ³ 50Â Âµg/mÂ³ â PM2.5 1 day 35Â Âµg/mÂ³ â â 30Â Âµg/mÂ³ 1 year 15Â Âµg/mÂ³ 12Â Âµg/mÂ³ â â Ozone 1 hour 235Â Âµg/mÂ³ 180Â Âµg/mÂ³ 216Â Âµg/mÂ³ 100Â Âµg/mÂ³ 8-hour 160Â Âµg/mÂ³ 150Â Âµg/mÂ³ â â CO 1 hour 40Â mg/mÂ³ 23Â mg/mÂ³ â 34Â mg/mÂ³ 8-hour 10Â mg/mÂ³ 10Â mg/mÂ³ 13Â mg/mÂ³ â California has accomplished both), and this has created a supportive legislature. For example, the California Legislature recently passed a bill to give CARB the authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, a 30 per- cent reduction from business as usual. The governor of California, with the consent of the State Senate, appoints the 11 members of CARB. It is an independent board when making regulatory decisions. Six of the members are experts in fields such as medicine, chemistry, physics, meteorology, engineering, business, and law. Five others are elected offi- cials who represent regional air pollution control agenciesâone each from the Los Angeles region, the San Francisco Bay area, San Diego, the San Joaquin Valley and another to represent other, more rural areas of the state. The first chairman was Professor Arie Haagen-Smit, who discovered how urban smog was created (Box 10-1), and the latest chairman, Ms. Mary Nichols, is an environmental l Â awyer with extensive experience in leadership positions at non-governmental, state, and federal organizations. Except for the Chairman, the Board only works once per month and relies on its staff for technical input. The Board oversees a $150 million budget and a staff of over 1,100 employees located in Northern and Southern California. CARB oversees the activities of 35 local and regional air pollution control districts. These districts regulate industrial pollution sources. They also issue permits, develop local plans to attain healthy air quality, and ensure that the industries in their area adhere to air quality mandates. CARB provides financial and technical
292 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION BOX 10-1 Dr. Arie Haagen-Smit Dr. Arie Haagen-Smit, known by many as the âfatherâ of air pollution control, was a Dutch-born graduate of the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands and a professor of biochemistry at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena (a suburb of Los Angeles) for 16 years before beginning his air pollution research in 1948. An avid gardener in the Los Angeles region, Dr. Haagen-Smit first became concerned about damage to his plants, such as discolored leaves and undersized flowers. His curiosity led to a series of experiments that uncovered the chemical interactions to form smog. He found that most of Californiaâs smog is a result of photochemistry: exhaust from motor vehicles and industrial facilities react with sunlight to create ozone. This break-through is the foundation on which todayâs nationwide air pollution standards are based. After serving as an original board member of the Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Board, formed in 1960, Dr. ÂHaagen- Smit became the ARBâs first chairman in 1968. Dr. Haagen-Smit died of lung cancer (ironically, he was a heavy smoker) two months after the CARB laboratory in El Monte was dedicated in his name in March 1977. support to the 35 local districts. It is funded by vehicle registration fees and fees on stationary sources and consumer products. It also receives up to $166 million per year in incentive funds from fees on vehicle registration and new tire sales. This goes to diesel engine retrofits, car scrappage, and agricultural, port, and locomotive projects. The SCAQMD, the district regulatory agency in charge of the SoCAB, is authorized to develop stationary source regulations and to set fines for violators. Thus, the biggest polluters pay the most toward funding the air pollution control effort. Also, businesses must pay annual fees for their operating permits. How- ever, since motor vehicles account for more than half of this regionâs pollution, a surcharge was added in 1991 to the vehicle registration fee. Part of the surcharge goes to the SCAQMD to be used for air quality improvements involving mobile sources such as those promoting ridesharing, developing clean fuels, and as grants for programs intended to reduce vehicle emissions. California has 4,000 air quality professionals at the state and local levels. Most of CARBâs workforce are engineers and scientists, and about 20 percent have Ph.D.s and Masterâs degrees. CARB conducts its own vehicle testing pro- grams and funds extramural research at a level of $5 million per year, taking advantage of the strong academic community in California and in other states. It also funds a technology demonstration and commercialization program, and the development of state-of-the-art emission, air quality, and macroeconomic models. The technology research demonstrates how reduced emissions are feasible, but the use of performance-based standards allows industry to come up with more
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 293 cost-effective approaches. Enforcement and monitoring programs ensure that the emission standards are met. CARB has a requirement that the scientific underÂ pinnings of all its regulations undergo scientific peer review. This is normally done by the University of California. Underlying this science-based approach is the willingness to move ahead in the face of some uncertainties. Industrial sources must use the best available control technology to achieve the greatest feasible emission reductions. Box 10-2 provides a closer look at one such source. In addition to using advanced control technology in new factories, many older facilities have reduced their emissions by using retrofit equipment and switching to cleaner burning fuels. Smaller, more personal air pollution sources, known as consumer products, also affect air quality. Products such as deodorants, hair spray, and cleaning products contain ozone-forming chemicals knows as volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In 1990, consumer products emitted about 264 tons of smog-forming BOX 10-2 Southeast Resource Recovery Facility, SERRF Due to an increasing population and growing amount of solid waste, the City of Long Beach, California, created a solid waste management strategy to reduce the amount of solid waste burial in landfills. Under the guidelines of this program, any solid waste that in not recycled through the City of Long Beachâs sponsored curbside-recycling program is transported to the Southeast Resource Recovery Facility (SERRF). At this facility, metal is separated from waste after incineration, and as a result, SERRF collects an average of 825 tons of metal monthly and produces electricity as a by-product. During the incineration process waste is pushed through the boiler, and the resulting ash is deposited in a âquench tank,â where the ash is cooled as the tank is filled with water. After leaving the boiler, combustion gases travel through a p Â ollution-control system where dry scrubbers are used to counterbalance acidic gases. This pollution-control system removes 95 percent of sulfur dioxide and hydrochloric acid from the gases. The gases are cleaned during another step of this process, as steady air currents flow through fiberglass bags where the gases are trapped. The steam produced during the incineration stage is then used to power a t Âurbine-generator, thus producing electricity. The electricity produced from waste burning is used to operate the facility, and the remaining electricity is sold for distribution. The same steam that is used to drive the generator is transferred to a condenser and converted into water to be used in the boiler stage of the waste incineration. SERRF provides over 35,000 homes with electricity, while controlling the amount of solid waste in this community. At the same time, SERRF uses a modern pollution-control system to reduce negative emissionsâ impacts on sur- rounding Âenvironments.
294 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION pollutants each day. This is more than all the refineries and gas stations in the state combined. California's clean air plan commits to an 85 percent reduction in ozone-forming pollution from consumer products. In 1977, CARB appointed an independent panel of seven experts to review what was known about carcinogenic air pollutants in California. The panel rec- ommended that follow-up research be done to explore further the relationship of cancer to air pollution and to determine the extent of the problem in California. California's air toxics program began in 1983 with the adoption of the Toxic Air Contaminant Identification and Control Act (AB 1807, Tanner). The act set up a process to identify a substance as a toxic air contaminant and, if necessary, develop one or more control measures to reduce emissions of that substance. In 1992 the Toxic Air Contaminant Identification and Control Act was further amended to integrate rules from the federal Clean Air Act. In some ways, this has been the most effective of Los Angelesâ air pollution control programs, with at least 50 percent reductions in diesel PM, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, hexavalent chromium, perchloroethylene, and others during the 1990s. As a result of CARBâs and local air districtsâ work to limit air pollution, Cali- fornians today breathe the cleanest air since measurements have been recorded. The number of first-stage smog alerts (ozone > 0.20 ppm) in the Los Angeles area has been cut from over 200 per year in the 1970s to none today. This has occurred despite massive increases in population, the number of motor vehicles, and the distances they are driven. California regulations led the way for the EPA and European Union motor vehicle emission standards that are now being adopted by many developing countries, particularly in Asia. Most of the worldâs population benefits from the fact that over 70 percent of the vehicles worldwide must comply with cleaner emissions standards (Michael Walsh, personal communication). LESSONS LEARNED CARBâs technology-forcing emission standards have resulted in major advancements in emission-control technologies. Todayâs cleanest passenger car emits less than 1 percent of ozone precursor emissions compared to the emis- sions from a car produced in 1960. Californiaâs successful introduction of many e Â mission-control programs has served as the basis for many similar U.S. pro- grams. Through decades of emission-control success, these programs have signifi- cantly improved Californiaâs air quality, despite more than doubling the number of people and tripling the number of vehicles over the last four decades. Two of the keys to CARBâs success are the technical evaluations that go into its regulation development and the very open public process. CARB develops new emission test methods, and in some cases, proves that more stringent emission standards are achievable by funding or conducting technology demonstrations. It encourages participation by all stakeholders, including the public, industry,
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 295 and communities that may be impacted by air pollution disproportionately from others. CARB meets with many stakeholders to hear concerns and to provide a mechanism for addressing their issues. It holds workshops that solicit suggestions and comments on initial issues. The technical data and assumptions are published in advance of the workshops. Regulations are first proposed in an initial report and additional workshops are held for public comment. CARB changes its proposal once significant issues are raised that warrant a revision. Once the regulation is adopted, it issues a formal response to all issues raised. The public has a chance to air their concerns directly to Board members. The Board reviews the technology and enforceability of regulations when necessary, to make sure that the regulations meet the expectation held at the time of adoption. CARB considers economic impacts of its regulations on California businesses and individuals, and regula- tions do not advantage or disadvantage Californiaâs manufactured products over products manufactured elsewhere in the United States or in the world. Despite the increasing difficulty of pollutant emission reduction, techno- logical advancements have kept control costs fairly steady. Figure 10-9 shows a 29-year timeline of the cost-effectiveness of various vehicle and fuel regulations, in dollars per pound of ozone precursor (VOC + NOx). Most measures have cost less than $2 per pound, which is considered to be quite reasonable in comparison to a benchmark of $5 per pound for stationary and area source control measures. Air pollution control also has positive economic aspects. In 2001, the air pollution control industry in California generated $6.2 billion in revenues and employed 32,000 people (EBI, 2004). The U.S. figures are $27 billion in revenues and the employment of 178,000 people (EBI, 2004). 6 Enhanced On-Rd Vapor Dollars per Pound of Ozone Precursor Motorcycle Recovery 5 OBD 2 4 3 RFG 2 Outboard Inboard Marine Marine 2 Fuel Transit Bus Container 0.25 HC LDV 2- Stroke Lawn Off-Cycle 1 OBD 1 LDT Off-Rd 2007 Off-Rd Diesel Med. Duty 0.4 NOx LDV LEV CI HDDE Truck 2.4g HDDE 5g HDD 4-Stroke Lawn Off-Rd Motorcycle NTE & ESC Test 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Board Hearing Year FIGURE 10-9â Timeline of CARB ozone precursor control costs. 10-9
296 ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION Another groundbreaking aspect of Californiaâs air pollution control program were the efforts to independently verify the emission inventory. Past analyses of ambient air quality data reveal that, in the South Coast Air Basin, in 1987, (1)Â actual CO emissions were about 1.5 times higher than inventory estimates; (2) VOC emissions were about two times higher; (3) NOX emissions were in agreement; (4) there was a large uninventoried source of unburned gasoline; (5)Â the agreement for VOC emissions was improving; and (6) these results were likely to apply nationwide. The good news is that VOCs, NOX, and CO are all declining, and that the most recent CO emission inventory is in agreement with ambient measurements. FUTURE DIRECTIONS The regionâs rapid growth is expected to continue, with a further doubling of population projected for the next half-century (McConnell, 1992). Despite sig- nificant progress, Los Angelesâ ozone and PM2.5 levels are still among the highest in the United States, and per capita energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions are factors of 2-5 above those in European countries. In response, among other things, California is requiring zero-emitting cars, replacement (or retrofit with a particle filter) of every diesel engine, renewable fuels, and greenhouse gas emis- sion reductions to 1990 levels by 2020, and 80 percent below 1990 by 2050. Planned regulations for light-duty vehicles include a parts replacement pro- gram and improvements to the Smog Check program (i.e., more vehicles to test, loaded mode testing for gasoline trucks, and evaporative emission control testing to detect liquid leakage). For forklifts and other large spark-ignited equipment, CARB is working on lower emission standards for new equipment, as well as in-use reductions through catalyst retrofits. For heavy-duty vehicles, CARB has a broad range of controls to reduce emissions from both new and in-use vehicles (i.e., OBD, reduced idling, chip reflash, gasoline tanker vapor recovery, and in- use inspections in environmental justice areas), but must go beyond these strate- gies to get the additional reductions needed. For off-road compression ignition (CI) equipment, although California is preempted by federal law from controlling a significant fraction (~80 percent) of this equipment, it is a huge source of emissions and large reductions are needed. California will work with the EPA to establish more stringent nationwide stan- dards for HC, NOx, and PM from off-road CI engines, and to implement in-use strategies to get additional reductions. For marine engines, California plans to get reductions from existing harbor craft through cleaner engines and fuels. For the ports, reductions from land-based port emissions are planned, including from cargo handling equipment and locomotives, heavy trucks, and dredges. The ports Chip reflash refers to a program between CARB and diesel engine manufacturers to install engine control software upgrades on engines with software which normally allows the engine to switch to a more fuel-efficient but higher NOx calibration during highway driving.
THE LOS ANGELES EXPERIENCE 297 of Los Angeles and Long Beach estimate that port-related vessels and vehicles account for 12 percent of the regionâs PM, 9 percent of NOx, and 45 percent of SOx. California has set a target reduction of 85 percent diesel PM exposure (from 2000 to 2020), in spite of a projected tripling of container traffic, and has set aside $1 billion for a mitigation fund (San Pedro Bay Ports, 2007). According to the Clean Air Action Plan, the ports are obligated to include projects related to truck engine replacement and retrofit, ship cold ironing, and other emission-control enhancements on their shipyard equipment. CARB will set standards for additives to control engine deposits. California has a goal of reducing diesel PM by 75 percent during this decade and 85 percent by 2020. This is being achieved with new emission standards, cleaner fuels, retrofits of existing engines, and enforcement programs. CARB and the EPA have adopted new vehicle standards that reduce emissions by 90 percent beginning in 2007. CARB will require aftertreatment on every diesel source where it is technically feasible. Low-sulfur fuel is required, as well as cleaner fuels like CNG and measures to reduce or to eliminate idling. Enforcement programs are used to minimize the effects of tampering and wear, especially in environmental justice communities. The policy that people of all races and incomes need equal protection from the detrimental effects of pollution is known as environmental justice, and has emerged as an important issue in California over the past 5 years. The debate focuses on the need for community controls in addition to statewide measures. In California, people who live near busy roads are disproportionately Hispanic, Asian, and black, and from low-income families. Several Dutch studies found reduced lung function and higher asthma, hayfever, and wheezing rates for chil- dren living near heavy truck traffic. California is also concerned about indoor sources of air pollution. ÂCalifornians spend, on average, about 87 percent of their day indoors. During that time they are often exposed to air pollution levels higher than those outdoors. While the sources and risk reduction measures are known, CARB and other agencies have very little authority in this area. REFERENCES Blumenthal, D.L., W.H. White, and B. Smith. 1978. Anatomy of a Los Angeles smog episode: P Â ollutant transport in the daytime sea breeze regime. Atmospheric Environment 12:893-907. Boucouvala, D. and R. Bornstein. 2003. Analysis of transport patterns during a SCOS97-NARSTO episode. Atmospheric Environment 37(Suppl 2):S73-S94. Cal/EPA (California Environmental Protection Agency). 2002. Environmental Protection Indicators for California (EPIC). CARB (California Air Resources Board). 2002. The 2002 California Almanac of Emissions & Air Quality. Sacramento, CA: California Air Resources Board, Planning and Technical Support Division. CEC (California Energy Commission). 2005. 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report, November.
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