Appendix C
Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop
Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals
Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II) June 19, 2007
Executive Summary [p. 2]
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OSTP requested NOAA and NASA to provide:
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An analysis of possible mitigation options of the climate impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification through 2026
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An assessment of the potential costs of these options
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Primary goal: Ensure continuity of long-term climate records
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NOAA and NASA analyzed the following options:
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Remanifesting the climate sensors on NPOESS spacecraft
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Placing sensors on currently planned non-NPOESS spacecraft
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Developing new gap-filling climate satellite missions
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Partnering opportunities
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Key results:
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Work in progress: still assessing options
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Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS
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Options consistent with Decadal Survey recommendations
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Partnering for altimetry could provide significant cost savings
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NOTE: B. Cramer, NASA Headquarters, “Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II),” presentation to the Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft Workshop, June 19, 2007, available at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ssb/SSB_NPOESS2007_Presentations.html. The presentation as delivered at the workshop has been reformatted somewhat for publication. Page numbers in brackets refer to the original presentation. All information presented is pre-decisional, and assessments involve preliminary rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates only.
Climate Sensor Impact Assessment (summarized from January 2007 NASA/NOAA Joint Assessment) [pp. 3-4]
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Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)
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Essential to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change
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Would continue 25+ year long data record
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Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS)
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Continuously monitors the Earth’s radiation budget to identify subtle long-term shifts related to climate change
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Would continue 21+ year long data record
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Ocean Altimeter (ALT)
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Monitors sea level
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Would continue 15+ year long data record
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Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) – Limb Subsystem
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Measures the vertical distribution of stratospheric ozone to monitor and understand the ozone recovery resulting from the Montreal Protocol
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Would continue 23+ year long data record
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Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS)
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Measures the global distribution of aerosols and their impact on the Earth’s energy balance, clouds, and precipitation
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Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS) – Reduced Capability
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Provides sea surface temperatures, sea ice and snow cover extents, soil moisture, ocean surface wind speed, water vapor, and precipitation rates even in the presence of heavy cloud cover
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Continuous records date back to 1987
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Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0930 Orbit)
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Multi-spectral imagers sample the spectral signatures of features on or near the Earth’s surface important to climate science
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For over three decades, scientists have depended on this imagery for a wide variety of weather and climate applications
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Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS)/Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0530 Orbit)
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No mitigation recommended for climate science
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Space Environment Sensor Suite (SESS)
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Not considered here
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Development of Mitigation Options [p. 5]
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Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS
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Developed options using following criteria:
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Minimize risk to measurement continuity
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First priority for existing climate data records
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Minimize risk to existing programs
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Cost effectiveness
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Economies of scale
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Leverage planned missions and sensors including partnerships with other space agencies
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Potential Mitigation Options [p. 6]
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Option 1: NPOESS + Gap Filler Climate Satellite
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Option 2: Sequential Climate Satellites
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Option 3: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy
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Option 4: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy & Operational Risk Reduction
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These options also include free-flyer altimetry missions and climate data record science support
Current Studies [p. 15]
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Work in progress: still exploring options
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NPOESS remanifest
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Assessed 2 options for earliest return to NPOESS flights (C2-C4)
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NASA procures and delivers sensors to NPOESS as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE)
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The Integrated Program Office (IPO) procures sensors via current prime contractor overseeing subcontracted instrument vendors
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Altimetry
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Altimetry capability explored as free-flying Jason follow-on and as advanced altimeter missions
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Climate satellite missions
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Examined 2 research-grade missions
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Additionally explored TSIS (total and spectral) on Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and International Space Station (ISS)
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Currently assessing CERES on NPP
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Examined 2 operational-grade missions
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Used sensor analysis from NASA plus spacecraft development analysis from NOAA Polar Extended Mission study (2006)
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Climate Data Record (CDR) Science Support [p. 16]
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Includes development, production, reprocessing, stewardship, and distribution
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Assumes data from all NPOESS certified sensors and mitigation sensors / sources
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Covers about 30 Climate Change Science Program essential climate variables
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Will be covered in more detail in following presentation
Free Flyer Climate Satellite [p. 17]
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Would fly in formation with NPOESS PM to provide imager data
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Two options were examined:
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Research spacecraft
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Planned 5-year mission
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Single string development with selective redundancy
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Inexpensive, non-standard launch vehicle
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Ground segment leverages existing systems.
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Operational spacecraft
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Planned 7-year mission with additional redundancy
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Standard launch vehicle
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Additional investment in ground segment
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Current cost estimate range for a 3-sensor satellite is approximately $700M-$1100M
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CDR Science Support is an additional $300M-$450M
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Altimetry Options [p. 18]
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NPOESS sun-synchronous orbits are NOT ideal for precision altimetry
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Flight of an altimeter on NPOESS is NOT recommended
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For this analysis, “free flyer” satellites in the NOAA / EUMETSAT JASON series are assumed
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Three satellites beyond JASON 2 required to provide coverage to 2026
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Costs estimated for JASON 3, 4, and 5
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Advanced altimeter costs also estimated
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May replace JASON class missions starting with JASON 4
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Independent of this study, U.S. Navy is working with the IPO to develop costs and options to procure an operational oceanography radar altimeter
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Current total cost estimate for a series of 3 missions ranges from approximately $1.5B-$2.1B
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CDR Science Support is an additional ~$200M
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Current cost estimate for a single JASON follow-on is approximately $470M with the potential for 50/50 cost sharing with partners
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TABLE Climate Goal Partnering Opportunities (Preliminary) [p. 19]
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Partner |
Sensor or Capability |
Timeframe |
Role |
Increasing Potential → |
EUMETSAT |
Jason-3 |
2013-2018 |
Mitigate |
NASA/Navy |
Adv. Altimeter |
TBD |
Mitigate |
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ESA/JAXA (Earthcare) |
APS/ERBS-like |
2010-20xx |
Mitigate |
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ESA GMES Sentinel 3 |
Altimeter |
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Complement |
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Navy (NPOESS) |
Altimeter (Op) |
2016-2026 |
Complement |
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Navy (DoD Space Test Program) |
Altimeter (Op) |
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Complement |
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CNES Megha-Tropiques |
ERBS-like |
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Complement |
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Chinese SOA (HY series) |
Altimeter |
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Mitigate |
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Brazilian Space Agency (Amazonia) |
Flight Opportunity |
2010/2015 |
Accommodation |
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EUMETSAT (MSG) |
ERBS-like |
on-orbit |
Complement |
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Chinese Met. Agency (FY series) |
ERBS-like |
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Mitigate |
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ESA PARASOL |
APS-like |
on-orbit |
Complement |
Related Concerns [p.20 ]
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VIIRS
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Reduced imaging capability for mid-morning orbit
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Discussions on-going with EUMETSAT about an advanced imager on METOP-D
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Optical Crosstalk
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MIS
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Reduced capability microwave imager
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First MIS scheduled to fly on NPOESS C2 (2016)
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Discussion on-going with JAXA about AMSR-2
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Pursuing several options for continuity of ocean vector wind measurements
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TABLE Near-Term Planning [p.21 ]
|
Decision/Funding Commitment |
Launch Readiness Date |
CERES on NPP |
September 2007 / FY07* |
September 2009 |
TSIS on LDCM |
January 2008 / FY09 |
Late 2011 |
JASON-3 |
Decision CY08 / FY10 |
2013 |
First Climate Free-Flyer |
Mid 2009 / Pre-Phase A FY08 |
2014 |
* Would require re-allocation of existing funds |
Next Steps [p.22 ]
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Listen closely to the input from this Workshop
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Continue to work with OSTP
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Continue dialogue regarding potential international and/or domestic partnerships