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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change (2008)

Chapter: Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
Page 154
Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
Page 155
Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12206.
Page 156

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Appendix L Biographies of Committee Members Gregory S. Parnell, Chair, is professor of systems engineer- American Statistical Association, a member of the board of ing at the United States Military Academy at West Point and directors of the ASA, and a former member of the ASA’s teaches decision and risk analysis, systems engineering, and Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics. operations research. His research focuses on decision analy- sis, risk analysis, resource allocation, and systems engineer- Luciana L. Borio, M.D., is senior associate at the Center ing for defense, intelligence, homeland security, research for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical and development (R&D), and environmental applications. Center and assistant professor of medicine at the University He co-edited Decision Making for Systems Engineering and of Pittsburgh. She also serves part time at the U.S. Depart- Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (Wiley ment of Health and Human Services (HHS) as an adviser and Sons, 2008), and has published more than 100 papers on biodefense programs. She is an infectious disease physi- and book chapters. He is a member of the Chief Technology cian and continues to practice medicine at Johns Hopkins Officer and Information Assurance Panels of the National Hospital. Dr. Borio’s work focuses on policies to improve Security Agency Advisory Board and is a former member the nation’s preparedness for bioterrorism, by supporting of the Department of Energy’s Environmental Management threat assessments, medical countermeasures development, National Prioritization Team. He is a senior principal with and medical response plans. Dr. Borio is an associate editor Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm, of the peer-reviewed journal Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: and a former principal with Toffler Associates, a strategic ad- Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, and she is co- visory firm. Dr. Parnell is a former president of the Decision managing editor of the Clinicians’ Biosecurity Network, Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research a real-time, online communications network designed to and Management Science (INFORMS) and of the Military facilitate communications among physicians during health Operations Research Society (MORS). He has also served care crises. She serves on the Global and Public Health Com- as editor of Journal of Military Operations Research. Dr. mittee and the Bioemergencies Task Force of the Infectious Parnell is a retired Air Force colonel with experience in space Diseases Society of America. She has lectured extensively operations, R&D management, and operations research. Dr. and has published a series of manuscripts and book chapters Parnell received his Ph.D. from Stanford University and is on biodefense-related issues. Dr. Borio is a member of the a graduate of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces. Infectious Diseases Society of America, Phi Beta Kappa, He has received several professional awards, including the and Alpha Omega Alpha. Prior to joining the Center for Bi- United States Army Dr. Wilbur B. Payne Memorial Award osecurity at its founding in 2003, she was a senior fellow at for Excellence in Analysis, MORS Clayton Thomas Laure- the Johns Hopkins University Center for Civilian Biodefense ate, two INFORMS Koopman Prizes, and the MORS Rist Strategies and assistant professor of medicine in the Division Prize. He was elected a fellow of the MORS in 1997 for his of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University. In 2002, contributions to military operations research. Dr. Borio left the Johns Hopkins Center to work full time as senior health advisor at HHS. There she implemented and David Banks is a professor in the Department of Statisti- managed mathematical modeling projects to assess the health cal Science at Duke University. He is currently chair of the effects of bioterrorism on civilians and to inform medical American Statistical Association (ASA) Section on Statistics countermeasures procurement activities for the Office of in Defense and National Security and is a past chair of the Preparedness and Response. She rejoined the Johns Hopkins Section on Risk Analysis. He is editor of the Journal of the Center in 2003 and continues to serve part time at HHS, 153

154 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY BIOTERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT where she advises on the requirements for and development the University of Colorado at Denver and is clinical profes- of medical countermeasures. She received a B.S. in 1992 and sor of preventive medicine and biometrics at the University an M.D. in 1996 from the George Washington University. of Colorado Health Sciences Center, where he teaches and She completed residency in 1999 in internal medicine at the guides graduate research on uncertainty analysis and causa- New York Presbyterian Hospital-Cornell Medical Center, tion in epidemiological studies. He is on the editorial board and subsequently completed a combined fellowship in infec- of Risk Analysis: An International Journal and is co-editor tious diseases (at Johns Hopkins University) and critical care of the Journal of Heuristics. He is a full member of the Insti- medicine (at the National Institutes of Health). tute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, the Society for Risk Analysis, and the American Statistical Gerald G. Brown is Distinguished Professor of Operations Association. He has chaired numerous conference sessions Research at the Naval Postgraduate School, where he has on various aspects of risk, uncertainty, network design, and taught and conducted basic and applied research in optimi- optimization. Dr. Cox was elected to the New York Acad- zation theory and optimization-based decision support since emy of Sciences in 1992 and was made a lifetime fellow of 1973, earning awards for both outstanding teaching and the Society for Risk Analysis in 1993. In 1994, he was a research. His military research has been applied by every recipient of the Operations Research Society of America’s uniformed service, in areas ranging from strategic nuclear prestigious ORSA prize for the best real-world applications targeting to capital planning. Professor Brown has been of operations research having profound business impact. In awarded the Rist Prize for military operations research and addition to hands-on experience and professional activities has been credited with guiding investments of more than a in telecommunications decision and risk analysis, operations trillion dollars. He has designed and implemented decision research, artificial intelligence, and applied statistics, Dr. support software currently used by two-thirds of the For- Cox has authored and co-authored more than 100 journal ar- tune 50 companies, in areas ranging from vehicle routing to ticles and book chapters on advanced aspects of these fields. supply-chain optimization. His research appears in scores of He holds more than a dozen U.S. and international patents open-literature publications and classified reports, many of on applications of network optimization, speech recognition, which are seminal references in the field. He is also a fellow and signal processing technologies in telecommunications. of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science and is a founding director of Insight, Inc., the leading John Gannon is vice president for global analysis at BAE provider of strategic supply-chain optimization-based deci- Systems. He joined BAE Systems after serving as staff direc- sion support tools to the private sector. He is a retired naval tor of the U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security officer and was recently elected to the National Academy of Committee, the first new committee established by Congress Engineering. in more than 30 years. In 2002-2003, he was a team leader in the White House’s Transitional Planning Office for the Anthony Cox, Jr., is president of Cox Associates, an in- Department of Homeland Security. He served previously in dependent, Denver-based applied research and consulting the senior-most analytic positions in the intelligence com- company specializing in wireless and optical network design munity, including as the Central Intelligence Agency’s di- and optimization software tools, customer data mining and rector of European analysis, deputy director for intelligence, predictive modeling, and decision and risk analysis technolo- chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and assistant gies. Dr. Cox has a Ph.D. in risk analysis and an S.M. in director of central intelligence for analysis and production. operations research, both from the Massachusetts Institute In the private sector, he developed the analytic workforce of Technology’s Department of Electrical Engineering and for Intellibridge Corporation, a Web-based provider of Computer Science; and an A.B. from Harvard University. outsourced analysis for government and corporate clients. Prior to starting Cox Associates in 1986, he consulted in risk He served as a naval officer in Southeast Asia and later in analysis, economics and statistics, operations research, and several Naval Reserve commands, retiring as a captain. Dr. artificial intelligence at Arthur D. Little, Inc., in Cambridge, Gannon has a bachelor’s degree from Holy Cross College Massachusetts. From 1987 to 1996, he managed applied in Worcester, Massachusetts, and master’s and doctorate research and high-technology product development efforts degrees from Washington University in St. Louis. He is an for US WEST Advanced Technologies in Boulder, Colo- adjunct professor in the National Security Studies Program rado. He was senior director of advanced communications at Georgetown University. research, business and engineering modeling, and network architectures. He is currently an honorary full professor Eric Harvill is an associate professor of microbiology and of mathematics at the University of Colorado at Denver, infectious disease at Pennsylvania State University. After where he lectures on topics in biomathematics, health risk graduate studies in molecular immunology and postdoctoral modeling, computational statistics, and machine learning. research in bacterial pathogenesis, he established a group that Dr. Cox is on the faculties of the Center for Computational examines the interactions between bacterial pathogens and Mathematics and the Center for Computational Biology at the host immune system to determine the molecular bases

APPENDIX L 155 for these complex interactions. More recently, Dr. Harvill Academy of Microbiology and the American College of has examined the evolution of closely related respiratory Epidemiology, a life member of the Council on Foreign pathogens of the genus Bordetella, examining the genomic Relations, and serves on the National Research Council’s and genetic differences that distinguish persistent commen- standing Committee on Biodefense Analysis and Counter- sals of all the animals around us from the acute and virulent measures. Dr. Morse received his Ph.D. from the University forms that infect nearly all humans, causing whooping of Wisconsin-Madison. cough only in those who are not vaccinated. His laboratory uses a combination of the approaches common to bacterial Marguerite Pappaioanou is executive director of the pathogenesis, bacterial genomics/transcriptomics, compara- Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges tive biology, and molecular immunology to understand the (AAVMC). Before joining AAVMC on November 1, 2007, evolution of these pathogens. she had served the previous 3 years as professor of infectious disease epidemiology in the School of Public Health at the Howard Kunreuther is the Cecilia Yen Koo Professor of University of Minnesota, which followed a 21½ year career Decision Sciences and Public Policy at the Wharton School, at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Her areas University of Pennsylvania, as well as co-director of the of interests include emerging zoonotic infectious diseases, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. with a special interest in influenza viruses, malaria, and HIV; He has a long-standing interest in ways that society can better bioterrorism and agroterrorism; disease surveillance; and manage low-probability–high-consequence events as they disease prevention and control. She actively promotes linking relate to technological and natural hazards and has published human and animal health and the use of data in formulating extensively on the topic. He is a fellow of the American As- evidence-based health policies. sociation for the Advancement of Science and Distinguished Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis, receiving the soci- Stephen Pollock is Herrick Emeritus Professor of Manufac- ety’s Distinguished Achievement Award in 2001. Professor turing and emeritus professor of industrial and operations Kunreuther has written or co-edited a number of books and engineering at the University of Michigan. He has taught papers, including Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to courses in decision analysis, mathematical modeling, dy- Managing Risk (with Patricia Grossi) and Wharton on Mak- namic programming, and stochastic processes. His recent ing Decisions (with Stephen Hoch). He is a recipient of the research activities include developing cost-optimal monitor- Elizur Wright Award for the publication that makes the most ing and maintenance policies, sequential hypothesis testing, significant contribution to the literature of insurance. modeling large multiserver systems, and dynamic optimiza- tion of radiation treatment plans. Dr. Pollock was the director Stephen S. Morse is founding director of the Center for of the Program in Financial Engineering and the Engineering Public Health Preparedness at the Mailman School of Public Global Leadership honors program. He has been area editor Health of Columbia University and is a full professor in the of Operations Research, senior editor of IIE Transactions, Epidemiology Department. He also holds an adjunct fac- president of the Operations Research Society of America, ulty appointment at the Rockefeller University. Dr. Morse and a senior fellow of The University of Michigan Society returned to Columbia University in 2000 after 4 years in of Fellows. He is a founding fellow of the Institute for Op- government service as program manager at the Defense erations Research and the Management Sciences, and was Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department awarded its Kimball Medal in 2002. He was a member of of Defense. In that position, he co-directed the Pathogen the Army Science Board and is a member of the National Countermeasures program and subsequently directed the Academy of Engineering. Advanced Diagnostics program. Dr. Morse was chair and principal organizer of the 1989 National Institute of Allergy Nozer D. Singpurwalla is professor of statistics and Dis- and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health Confer- tinguished Research Professor at the George Washington ence on Emerging Viruses and has served as an adviser to the University in Washington, D.C. He has been a visiting pro- World Health Organization, the Pan-American Health Orga- fessor at Carnegie Mellon University, Stanford University, nization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the the University of Florida at Tallahassee, and the University Food and Drug Administration, and other agencies. He was of California, Berkeley. During the fall of 1991, he was the the founding chair of ProMED (the nonprofit international first C.C. Garvin Visiting Endowed Professor in the Math- Program to Monitor Emerging Diseases) and was one of ematical Sciences at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and the originators of ProMED-mail, a network inaugurated by State University. He is fellow of the Institute of Mathematical ProMED in 1994 for outbreak reporting and disease moni- Statistics, the American Statistical Association (ASA), and toring using the Internet. Dr. Morse currently serves on the the American Association for the Advancement of Science, steering committee of the Institute of Medicine’s (IOM’s) and he is an elected member of the International Statistical Forum on Emerging Infections and was previously a member Institute. Dr. Singpurwalla is the 1984 recipient of the U.S. of other IOM committees. He is a fellow of the American Army’s S.S. Wilks Award for Contributions to Statistical

156 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY BIOTERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT Methodologies in Army Research, Development and Test- in the Statistical Sciences Group at the Los Alamos National ing and was the first recipient of The George Washington Laboratory. Prior to her move to Los Alamos, Dr. Wilson University’s Oscar and Shoshana Trachtenberg Prize for was a senior operations research systems analyst working Faculty Scholarship. He co-authored a standard book in re- in support of the U.S. Army Operational Evaluation Com- liability and has published 157 papers on reliability theory, mand, Air Defense Artillery Evaluation Directorate. She also warranties, failure data analysis, Bayesian statistical infer- spent 2 years at the National Institutes of Health performing ence, dynamic models and time series analysis, quality con- research in the biomedical sciences. Her research focuses trol, and statistical aspects of software engineering. In 1993 on Bayesian methods, with emphasis on reliability model- he was selected by the National Science Foundation (NSF), ing and information combination. She is the past chair of ASA, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics (NIST) as the ASA/NIST/NSF Senior Research Fellow. In in Defense and National Security and chair of the American 1993 he was awarded a Rockefeller Foundation grant as a Statistical Association’s President’s Task Force in Defense scholar in residence at the Bellagio, Italy, Center. and Security. She received her Ph.D. in statistics from the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences at Duke Alyson Wilson is a project leader, technical staff member, University. and the technical lead for Department of Defense programs

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The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates.

This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled.

Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.

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