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Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future (2010)

Chapter: Appendix C: Social Security Options

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

Appendix C
Social Security Options

This appendix provides additional details on the illustrative policy options for Social Security presented in Chapter 6, but first further considers three matters: (1) a variety of measures of the program’s financial condition; (2) the earnings replacement rate; and, very briefly, (3) the policy option of individual investment accounts and the Social Security program.

MEASURES OF THE PROGRAM’S FINANCIAL CONDITION

Any single measure of the Social Security program’s financial condition and prospects is insufficient in light of the program’s multiple goals and the long period of time involved. The measures discussed in this section are not alternatives, but instead provide multiple complementary perspectives, some of which are applied to the illustrative options.

Program Solvency

The Social Security Office of the Actuary (OACT) defines program “solvency” as any time that the (Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance—OASDI) trust fund is in positive balance. In current law and under the intermediate projections of the Social Security trustees, the program is projected to become insolvent in 2037. Solvency is important in that the program has the legal authority to make benefit payments only as long as it is solvent; once the trust fund is exhausted, Social Security can pay benefits only from its dedicated tax revenue. A drawback of the solvency concept, however, is that it does not measure how healthy the system is in the long

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

run, nor does it take into account the broader budget implications of financing benefits outside the revenue streams now dedicated to the program. For instance, system solvency could be accomplished in a program-accounting sense by the federal government’s issuing new bonds to the trust funds or raising the interest rate on existing trust fund bonds. But from a whole-budget perspective, this accounting approach would not generate additional real resources to pay benefits. For that reason, this solvency concept can be criticized as allowing the risk that future generations must pay for current Social Security benefits; that is, improving program solvency (so defined) is not sufficient to achieve long-run self-financing.

Positive Cash Flow

If the Social Security system has a positive cash flow in any year, it means that revenues dedicated to the system are at least as large as those required to pay scheduled benefits. If the cash flow becomes negative, it would require cutting benefits, raising taxes, or redeeming trust fund assets. Under current law, cash-flow deficits will begin in 2017 and grow continually, exceeding 6 percent of the nation’s payroll by 2075 ($1.36 trillion dollars in 2001 dollars).

Asking that the system have positive annual cash flows is a straightforward and easy-to-understand objective: either Social Security is taking in more money than it must spend, or it is not. This principle is also consistent with the tradition of having Social Security be self-financing, and it does not require an understanding of the complexities of trust fund accounting. A drawback is that it does not indicate how soon the program would (or should) attain self-financing status, nor how it could (or should) be financed in the meantime, nor the role of the trust fund in financing benefits. Thus, meeting this goal is not, by itself, sufficient to ensure the long-term solvency of the program.

The 75-Year Actuarial Balance

Under current practice, Social Security actuaries report the actuarial balance of the retirement and disability programs as the net present value of Social Security system, that is, the present value of expected revenues minus the present value of scheduled expenditures over the “valuation period” of time that is used.1 The valuation period has historically been 75 years; recently, however, an in-perpetuity accounting period also has been reported. The use of the 75-year valuation period led to the computation that the 75-year shortfall in 2009 was equivalent to 2 percent of the nation’s taxable payroll. Although it is a useful mechanism for quantifying the magnitude of the financing shortfall, averaged over the valuation period, it has several

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

drawbacks. It ignores the timing of the cash outlays and cash receipts, and it conceals trends in shortfalls. For example, the 2 percent average actuarial deficit downplays the fact that today’s cash flow surpluses are more than offset by even larger cash flow shortfalls in 75 years, shortfalls that will exceed 6 percent of taxable payroll. Another drawback is that the 75-year time horizon ignores what happens to system finances outside the valuation period. Moreover, the criterion of actuarial balance can be viewed as biased against any reforms that advance-fund the system with investments and that experience paybacks beyond the 75-year window. In summary, the 75-year actuarial balance is a useful measure for this study, but it is only one of the indicators needed to assess the program’s financial condition.

System Assets at the End of the Valuation Period

Scheduled benefits under present law will, in 75 years, leave Social Security short by about $3.157 trillion or about $21,000 per current worker (in present value). Accordingly, one way to evaluate any Social Security reform proposal would be to ask how much it would reduce the size of this shortfall.

Amount of General Revenue Transfer Needed

Currently, Social Security would require substantial additional revenue to pay scheduled benefits. If changes can reduce the need for these transfers, this would improve the program’s financial condition by this measure.

Actuarial Balance at the End of Valuation Period

As noted, the actuarial balance measure favored by OACT does not exclude the possibility that system finances could deteriorate rapidly at some time after the end of the specified valuation period. One way to test for this risk is by whether the actuarial balance is moving in the positive direction at the end of the valuation period. A drawback of this approach is that actuarial projections become more uncertain in the distant future. Still, achieving a stable or rising trust fund ratio—the ratio of assets to spending—at the end of the 75-year valuation period is therefore a useful supplementary test of the program’s long-term financial condition.

THE EARNINGS REPLACEMENT RATE FOR INDIVIDUAL WORKERS

Many of this report’s graphs and tables estimate Social Security retirement benefits as a percentage of individual illustrative workers’ preretire-

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

ment earnings. This definition of the “Social Security replacement rate for individual earnings” is widely used, not just currently by the Social Security Administration, but by others (see, e.g., Congressional Budget Office, 2001:20-21). However, these “replacement rate” figures may be—but aren’t always—markedly lower than those associated with other definitions of replacement rates, such as that used in most retirement planning, with the same or similar economic circumstances. Steuerle et al. (2000) warn against confusing the two definitions in policy discussions.2

Simply stated, the Social Security replacement rate as defined in this report compares that illustrative worker’s benefits on retirement with her or his preretirement earnings (below the maximum relevant for taxation and benefits), throughout her or his career, indexed by average earnings throughout the economy. In contrast, the definition of replacement rate used in most retirement planning compares a family’s income in retirement from all sources (e.g., Social Security benefits plus any labor earnings, income from pensions and income from private savings), to the family’s income from all sources, typically in the years immediately preceding retirement.

There are two basic distinctions between the two definitions of retirement rates. First, the Social Security definition understandably is limited to Social Security benefits, which derive only from covered payroll earnings. The retirement definition is broader—including all sources of income.

The second distinction between the two definitions is the simplest explanation of why the Social Security replacement rate often, but not always, is markedly lower than the measure used in retirement planning. The Social Security definition is for individual workers—not couples or other family groups—and thus excludes the Social Security benefits any spouse receives in retirement; it also excludes any spousal preretirement earnings. Because spousal Social Security benefits are often considerable, because there are now many two-earner couples (and likely to be in the future); because spouses’ labor force attachment and rewards increasingly approximate each other; and especially because most people enter retirement married, the Social Security replacement rate is generally lower than that used in retirement planning.3

The research on this topic calculates replacement rates from rich data sources, rather than solely the program’s administrative records: Lusardi and Mitchell (2007) and Mitchell and Phillips (2006, 2009) use data from the Health and Retirement Study; Biggs and Springstead (2007) use the modeling income in the near-term microsimulation model of the Social Security Administration, also with longitudinal microdata at both the family and individual levels. The last study focuses on one aspect of the question: the degree to which benefits and other income sources in retirement replace preretirement earnings, rather than replacing preretirement income from all sources.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

Writing in the Social Security Bulletin, Biggs and Springstead (2007:1) summarize their findings as showing “that replacement rates can vary considerably based on the definition of preretirement earnings used and whether replacement rates are measured on an individual or a [family] basis.”

INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ACCCOUNTS

For practical reasons, the committee did not consider options to fundamentally change the Social Security program as it has been structured from its establishment. Still, we recognize that many options exist and have been proposed to alter the program’s basic structure. One proposal has been to emphasize individual accounts by permitting wage earners to redirect part of their payroll tax payment to individual investment accounts for retirement—perhaps accounts that the wage earner would manage. This redirection of the payroll tax would lead to an offset—that is, a reduction—from regular Social Security benefits. There are many arguments on both sides of this approach; for discussion and analyses of various forms of individual accounts, see, e.g., Brown and Apfel (2006), Cogan and Mitchell (2003), and Furman (2005c).

THE COMMITTEE’S ILLUSTRATIVE OPTIONS

Improvement in the program’s 75-year actuarial balance is one—though only one—yardstick for how our options would make the Social Security program solvent in the long term. It is used below to show how several reform provisions contribute to the program’s financial condition during that period. Tables C-1 and C-2 provide additional details for current law and each illustrative option.4 (See Table 6-1 for basic information on each option.)

Option 1:
Changes in Benefits Only; No Tax Changes

This option would increase the 75-year actuarial balance by 2.02 percent of the payroll under current law, bringing the finances into balance by this measure. (As of 2009, the program’s current balance is −2 percent.)

For individual provisions of Option 1:

  • The change in the preretirement formula for monthly benefits would account for 1.25 percent of the improvement in actuarial balance. This provision’s “progressive indexing” of benefits to a combination of wage and price levels would generally increase the preretirement benefit calculation more slowly than the current in-

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

TABLE C-1 Projected Social Security Cash Flow as a Percentage of GDP, Selected Years, Current Law Compared with Options 1-4

Year

Current Law

Option 1a

Option 2b

Option 3c

Option 4d

2010

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

2015

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

2020

−0.5

−0.3

−0.3

−0.2

−0.2

2025

−1.0

−0.6

−0.7

−0.6

−0.5

2030

−1.3

−0.8

−0.8

−0.7

−0.7

2035

−1.4

−0.8

−0.8

−0.7

−0.8

2040

−1.3

−0.6

−0.4

−0.5

−0.6

2045

−1.2

−0.4

−0.2

−0.3

−0.4

2050

−1.2

−0.2

−0.2

−0.3

−0.3

2055

−1.2

−0.1

−0.1

−0.3

−0.3

2060

−1.2

0.0

−0.1

0.0

−0.1

2065

−1.2

0.0

0.0

−0.1

−0.1

2070

−1.3

0.0

0.0

−0.1

0.0

2075

−1.3

0.0

0.0

−0.1

0.0

2080

−1.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2082

−1.4

−0.1

0.0

0.0

−0.1

2084

−1.5

−0.1

0.0

0.0

−0.1

NOTE: A year’s “cash flow” is its Social Security revenues minus its expenditures. When the cash flow is positive, the balance in the trust fund increases (see next table). When negative, the trust fund balance decreases.

aChanges in benefits only.

b2/3 benefit growth reductions; 1/3 payroll tax increases.

c1/3 benefit growth reductions; 2/3 payroll tax increases.

dPayroll-tax increases only.

dexing to wage levels alone. (By and large, wage levels rise through time faster than price levels.) The new provision would begin in 2012 and its effects (relative to the current-law formula) would accumulate through 2049. Then the current-law adjustment would resume until 2070, at which time progressive indexing would restart.

  • Consistent with discussion by the Office of the Actuary of the Social Security Administration (2009a:3-5), the “progressive indexing” of benefits to wage and price levels that we use differs from the “progressive price indexing” developed for Robert Pozen in 2003, although for both, the preretirement calculation of benefits for most middle- and upper-earning workers would increase more slowly, as general wage and price levels rise, than under the current formula. In Options 1-3, this benefit-indexing formula would be unchanged from current law for about the lowest-earning 30 percent of workers and for disabled workers. For others, indexing would in effect be based on a mix of wage and price levels, with

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

TABLE C-2 Projected Social Security Trust Fund Ratio, Selected Years, Current Law Compared with Options 1-4

Year

Current Law

Option 1a

Option 2b

Option 3c

Option 4d

2010

360

360

360

360

360

2015

359

367

365

373

375

2020

315

351

334

353

359

2025

244

311

290

319

319

2030

153

257

233

270

277

2035

50

202

178

227

229

2040

0

155

128

187

184

2045

0

121

114

167

157

2050

0

100

113

151

131

2055

0

91

112

137

117

2060

0

90

117

120

96

2065

0

95

122

123

97

2070

0

103

132

125

93

2075

0

109

142

126

99

2080

0

112

152

130

99

2082

0

113

155

132

100

2084

0

114

157

135

100

NOTE: The “trust fund ratio” is the trust fund balance at the beginning of the year, divided by that year’s spending.

aChanges in benefits only.

b2/3 benefit growth reductions; 1/3 payroll tax increases.

c1/3 benefit growth reductions; 2/3 payroll tax increases.

dPayroll-tax increases only.

the price level becoming more predominant as career earnings rise, up to the maximum subject to the Social Security payroll tax. As a result, the rate of increase in the preretirement benefits would usually be greatest for the lowest earners, and decrease with earnings, up to the payroll tax maximum, but to no less than the rate of price inflation.5

  • Increasing the future age for full and early retirement benefits accounts for a 0.56 percent increase in the balance.

  • Changing the cost-of-living adjustment to monthly benefits in retirement adds 0.36 percent to the balance.6

Option 2 gets roughly two-thirds of its effect by reducing benefit growth and one-third by payroll-tax increases. It improves the 75-year actuarial balance by 2.07 percent of payroll.

  • For the preretirement benefit formula, another form of progressive indexing is the only provision affecting benefits. It improves the

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

balance by 1.34 percent. This form of progressive indexing starts in 2012 and accumulates through 2061, after which the current-law calculation is reinstated.

  • While retaining the current-law cap on taxable earnings, the Social Security payroll tax would increase (from 12.4 percent) to 12.6 percent in 2012, 12.9 percent in 2020, 13.1 percent in 2030, 13.9 percent in 2040, decrease to 13.5 percent in 2050, and then finally decrease to 13.3 percent in 2060. Given the benefit change, this provision would add 0.73 percent to the 75-year balance.

Option 3 improves the 75-year balance by 2.05 percent—roughly one-third by benefit-growth reduction and two-thirds by increased payroll taxation.

  • A milder form of progressive indexing of the preretirement benefit formula would improve the balance by 0.63 percent. It would start in 2012 and accumulate only through 2021, when the current formula would be reinstated. However, progressive indexing would restart in 2060.

  • The existing rate of payroll taxation for Social Security (for earnings under the current-law cap) would increase to 12.6 percent in 2012, 12.9 percent in 2020, 13.3 percent in 2030, 13.8 percent in 2040, 14.4 percent in 2060, and finally to 14.5 percent in 2075. Added to the provision above, this tax provision would add 1.02 percent of payroll to the balance improvement.

  • The other tax provision would add a second tier of taxation for any earnings above the current-law cap. (There would be no credit toward benefits.) The second-tier tax would start at 2 percent in 2012 and rise to 3 percent in 2060. Given Option 3’s other two provisions, this one would add an additional 0.41 percent to the improved balance.

Option 4 achieves long-term program solvency by tax increases only, without changing the benefits scheduled under current law. It improves the 75-year balance by 2 percent.

  • For the existing payroll tax, the cap on taxation would be raised by an additional 2 percent above the current-law formula starting 2012, until 2048 when this tax applies to 90 percent of covered earnings. (There would be no benefit credit for earnings above the current-law cap.) This provision would make a 0.69 percent improvement in the actuarial balance.

  • Additionally, the rate of taxation under the raised cap would go up to 12.7 percent in 2012, 13 percent in 2025, 13.3 percent in 2040,

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

14 percent in 2060, 14.5 percent in 2070, and finally 14.7 percent in 2080. This provision makes a 0.83 percent improvement in the actuarial balance.

  • Furthermore, a second-tier payroll tax would be added for any earnings above the raised first-tier cap, again with no credit toward benefits. The added second-tier tax would be 2 percent in 2012, 3 percent in 2025, 3.5 percent in 2040, 4.5 percent in 2050, and finally 5.5 percent in 2060. This provision improves the balance by by 0.65 percent.

Table C-1 projects the program’s future cash flow, that is, its revenues minus its spending. After taking account of interest credited to the trust-fund balance, in a year when a year’s cash flow is positive, the trust-fund balance increases; when negative, it decreases.

Table C-2 projects each option’s year-by-year effect on the balance of the trust fund, relative to the next year’s spending, an indicator of how each option’s cash flow affects the current balance in the trust fund.

The tables show the reduction and then exhaustion of the trust fund under current law, its “recharging” through the reform options, and its maintaining a balance to 2084 that the committee considers adequate for program finance in the long run. The options were designed not just for program solvency, but to avoid cutting benefits so much, or raising payroll taxation so high, as to raise the trust fund balance much beyond the level needed for long-term solvency.

Also note that, under our illustrative reforms, at times in the future the cash flow is slightly negative, and the trust fund ratio drops below 100 percent—one yardstick of program finances. The ratio can drop below 100 percent for a limited period without threatening the benefits scheduled after reform. This is because, for example, while the trust fund ratio relates the start-of-year balance to that year’s spending, revenues enter the trust fund during the year. In fact, once a durable long-term balance is attained between annual revenues and spending—as our reforms do—a few years’ dip in the trust fund ratio need not signal impending depletion of the Social Security reserves. What would be most serious is a sustained downward trend toward the end of the projection period—which does not occur.

For Option 4, from 2060 on the trust fund ratio can drop as low as 93 percent and is never higher than 100 percent. Although this ratio avoids a downward trend, out of an abundance of caution it might be necessary to boost revenues modestly in the latter part of the century.

Tables C-3 through C-5 show real benefits, replacement rates, and payroll tax paid. They provide supporting and additional detail for Figures 6-5 through 6-13.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

TABLE C-3 Projected Monthly Social Security Benefits in 2009 Dollars, Selected Years, for Workers Newly Retired at Age 65, Scheduled Under Current Law Compared with Options 1-4, and at Various Illustrative Earning Levels

Selected Years

Current Law

Option 1a

Option 2b

Option 3c

Option 4d

Scaled Very Low Earner ($10,510 for 2009)

2000

564

NA

NA

NA

NA

2010

638

638

638

638

638

2020

689

642

689

689

689

2035

754

714

754

754

754

2050

887

799

887

887

887

2065

1,041

903

1,041

1,041

1,041

2082

1,249

1,029

1,249

1,249

1,249

Scaled Low Earner ($18,919 for 2009)

2000

738

NA

NA

NA

NA

2010

834

834

834

834

834

2020

901

840

901

901

901

2035

986

934

986

986

986

2050

1,161

1,045

1,161

1,161

1,161

2065

1,362

1,181

1,362

1,362

1,362

2082

1,633

1,347

1,633

1,633

1,633

Scaled Medium Earner ($42,042 for 2009)

2000

1,217

NA

NA

NA

NA

2010

1,375

1,375

1,375

1,375

1,375

2020

1,485

1,324

1,421

1,421

1,485

2035

1,625

1,359

1,435

1,523

1,625

2050

1,912

1,405

1,559

1,792

1,912

2065

2,244

1,572

1,711

2,069

2,244

2082

2,691

1,707

2,052

2,264

2,691

Scaled High Earner ($67,267 for 2009)

2000

1,582

NA

NA

NA

NA

2010

1,822

1,822

1,822

1,822

1,822

2020

1,968

1,716

1,842

1,842

1,968

2035

2,154

1,683

1,777

1,951

2,154

2050

2,534

1,653

1,835

2,295

2,534

2065

2,974

1,836

1,917

2,627

2,974

2082

3,567

1,926

2,299

2,720

3,567

Steady Maximum Earnere ($106,800 for 2009)

2000

1,779

NA

NA

NA

NA

2010

2,156

2,156

2,156

2,156

2,156

2020

2,396

2,062

2,213

2,213

2,396

2035

2,634

1,977

2,088

2,340

2,634

2050

3,094

1,875

2,082

2,748

3,094

2065

3,628

2,073

2,101

3,126

3,628

2082

4,350

2,122

2,520

3,128

4,350

NOTE: NA = not applicable.

aBenefit changes only.

b2/3 benefit-growth reductions; 1/3 payroll-tax increases.

c1/3 benefit-growth reductions; 2/3 payroll-tax increases.

dPayroll-tax increases only.

eThat is, at the cap under the current-law Social Security payroll tax.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

TABLE C-4 Projected Social Security Worker Benefits as a Percentage of Past Earnings Selected Years, for Workers Newly Retired at Age 65, Scheduled Under Current Law Compared to Options 1-4, and at Various Illustrative Earning Levels

 

Current Law

Option 1a

Option 2b

Option 3c

Option 4d

Scaled Low Earner ($18,919 for 2009)

2010

54

54

54

54

54

2020

52

49

52

52

52

2035

49

46

49

49

49

2050

49

44

49

49

49

2065

49

43

49

49

49

2082

49

40

49

49

49

Scaled Medium Earner ($42,042 for 2009)

2010

40

40

40

40

40

2020

39

35

37

37

39

2035

36

30

32

34

36

2050

36

27

30

34

36

2065

36

25

28

34

36

2082

36

23

28

31

36

Scaled High Earner ($67,267 for 2009)

2010

33

33

33

33

33

2020

32

28

30

30

32

2035

30

24

25

27

30

2050

30

20

22

27

30

2065

30

19

19

27

30

2082

30

16

19

23

30

Steady Maximum Earnere ($106,800 for 2009)

2010

27

27

27

27

27

2020

26

22

24

24

26

2035

24

18

19

21

24

2050

24

15

16

21

24

2065

24

14

14

21

24

2082

24

12

14

17

24

aBenefit changes only.

b2/3 benefit-growth reductions; 1/3 payroll-tax increases.

c1/3 benefit-growth reductions; 2/3 payroll-tax increases.

dPayroll-tax increases only.

eThat is, at the cap under the current-law Social Security payroll tax.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

TABLE C-5 Annual Social Security Payroll Tax Projected to Be Paid, Selected Years Current Law and Options 1-4, Various Illustrative Earning Levels (in 2009 dollars except as noted)

Selected Years

Current Law

Option 1a

Option 2b

Option 3c

Option 4d

Memo: Earnings (Current Dollars)

Average Wage Worker (about $42,000 in 2009 dollars)

2010

5,295

5,295

5,295

5,295

5,295

42,702

2020

5,919

5,919

6,158

6,158

6,062

47,733

2035

6,923

6,923

7,314

7,426

7,258

55,832

2050

8,146

8,146

8,869

9,066

8,738

65,696

2065

9,557

9,557

10,251

11,099

10,790

77,073

2082

11,458

11,458

12,290

13,399

13,584

92,405

High-Wage Worker ($67,300 in 2009 dollars)

2010

8,481

8,481

8,481

8,481

8,481

68,391

2020

9,480

9,480

9,862

9,862

9,709

76,450

2035

11,088

11,088

11,714

11,893

11,625

89,420

2050

13,047

13,047

14,205

14,520

13,994

105,219

2065

15,307

15,307

16,418

17,775

17,282

123,440

2082

18,351

18,351

19,683

21,459

21,755

147,995

Tax Maximum Worker (max under current law, $106,800 in 2009 dollars)

2010

13,028

13,028

13,028

13,028

13,028

105,063

2020

14,522

14,522

15,107

15,107

14,873

117,110

2035

16,955

16,955

17,912

18,185

17,775

136,731

2050

19,960

19,960

21,730

22,213

21,408

160,964

2065

23,415

23,415

25,115

27,192

26,437

188,835

2082

28,073

28,073

30,110

32,827

33,280

226,392

Very High Wage Worker ($200,000 in 2009 dollars)

2010

13,028

13,028

13,028

13,028

13,028

203,343

2020

14,522

14,522

15,107

17,311

19,521

227,302

2035

16,955

16,955

17,912

20,768

29,965

265,867

2050

19,960

19,960

21,730

25,250

41,608

312,839

2065

23,415

23,415

25,115

32,538

51,382

367,015

2082

28,073

28,073

30,110

39,236

64,684

440,024

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2009 Trustees Report.

aBenefit changes only.

b2/3 benefit growth reductions; 1/3 payroll tax increases.

c1/3 benefit growth reductions; 2/3 payroll tax increases.

dPayroll-tax increases only.

NOTES

  

1. “Present value” is a way to summarize various time paths of expected future cash flows into and out of the trust fund with a single number. The present value of these flows can be calculated by discounting those that are expected to occur in future years by the appropriate interest rate. For revenues, for example, this present value is in simple terms the sum that, invested at the stated interest rate, could generate that stream of future revenues.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Social Security Options." National Research Council. 2010. Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12808.
×

  

2. The program trustee’s report now uses the Social Security definition without calling it a “replacement rate” (Social Security Administration, 2009b:198-199).

  

3. Taking the perspective of the past, however—and depending on the actual earnings history and benefit calculation—dual-earner couples may have either lowered or raised the whole-couple earnings replacement rate, compared to that for individual workers.

  

4. As said, like Chapter 6 and unlike the rest of the report, this appendix relies on the intermediate economic and other assumptions of the 2009 report of the Social Security Trustees, rather than Congressional Budget Office assumptions. In this way our detailed Social Security illustrations are consistent with the program’s data. A recent comparison of the two is in Congressional Budget Office (2009).

  

5. To estimate these three illustrative options, the rate of real wage inflation was taken at 1.1 percent annually, the long-term rate used by the Social Security trustees for the current intermediate projections.

  

6. For this and other options, the sum for the individual provisions may not equal the option’s total (here, 2.02 percent) because of interaction among the effects of the provisions.

REFERENCES

Biggs, A.G., and Springstead, G.R. (2007). Alternate measures of replacement rates for Social Security benefits and retirement income. Social Security Bulletin, 68(2), 1-19.

Brown, J.R., and Apfel, K.S. (2006). Point/counterpoint: Would private accounts improve Social Security? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, (Summer), 679-690.

Cogan, J., and Mitchell, O. (2003). Perspectives from on the President’s Commission on Social Security reform. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(2), 149-172.

Congressional Budget Office. (2001). Social Security: A Primer. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.

Congressional Budget Office. (2009). CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Social Security: 2009 Update. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.

Furman, J. (2005). Evaluating Alternative Social Security Reform Proposals. Testimony of May 12, 2005, before the House Committee on Ways and Means. Serial No. 109-22. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Available: http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=109_house_hearings&docid=f:24732.pdf [December 2009].

Lusardi, A., and Mitchell, O.S. (2007). Baby boomer retirement security: The roles of planning, financial literacy, and housing wealth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(1), 205-224.

Mitchell, O.S., and Phillips, J.W.R. (2006). Social Security replacement rates for alternative earnings benchmarks. Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper No. WP 2006-116. Available: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1094839 [December 2009].

Social Security Administration. (2009a). Estimated Financial Effects of the ‘Social Security Solvency Act of 2009—S. 426. Memorandum to Senator Robert Bennett from the Office of the Social Security Actuary, February 12, 2009. Available: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/index.html [November 2009].

Social Security Administration. (2009b). The 2009 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Steuerle, C.E., Spiro, C., and Carasso, A. (2000). Measuring Replacement Rates at Retirement. Series on straight talk on Social Security and retirement policy. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.

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A mismatch between the federal government's revenues and spending, now and in the foreseeable future, requires heavy borrowing, leading to a large and increasing federal debt. That increasing debt raises a serious challenge to all of the goals that various people expect their government to pursue. It also raises questions about the nation's future wealth and whether too much debt could lead to higher interest rates and even to loss of confidence in the nation's long-term ability and commitment to honor its obligations. Many analysts have concluded that the trajectory of the federal budget set by current policies cannot be sustained.

In light of these projections, Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future assesses the options and possibilities for a sustainable federal budget. This comprehensive book considers a range of policy changes that could help put the budget on a sustainable path: reforms to reduce the rate of growth in spending for Medicare and Medicaid; options to reduce the growth rate of Social Security benefits or raise payroll taxes; and changes in many other government spending programs and tax policies. The book also examines how the federal budget process could be revised to be more far sighted and to hold leaders accountable for responsible stewardship of the nation's fiscal future.

Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future will provide readers with a practical framework to assess budget proposals for their consistency with long-term fiscal stability. It will help them assess what policy changes they want, consistent with their own values and their views of the proper role of the government and within the constraints of a responsible national budget. It will show how the perhaps difficult but possible policy changes could be combined to produce a wide range of budget scenarios to bring revenues and spending into alignment for the long term. This book will be uniquely valuable to everyone concerned about the current and projected fiscal health of the nation.

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