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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2 (2010)

Chapter: Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
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Appendix F
Visualizations of Workshop Discussions

During the Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop, Lynn Curruthers, a visual practitioner, assimilated ongoing discussions at two workshop sessions and produced the three graphics presented in Figures F-1 through F-3 and, for ease of viewing, included on the CD provided with this report and in the PDF available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12834.

Figures F-1 and F-2 were drawn during the first of the morning sessions, and Figure F-3 was drawn during the summary session. The workshop attendees kept track of the graphics as they were evolving, and offered suggestions and changes to make sure that everything from the session discussions was included.

Figure F-2 is meant to be read as a continuation of Figure F-1. Figure F-3 was produced at the end of the day from the workshop attendees’ overall final observations.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
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FIGURE F-1 The first three key areas: Defining the Unknown, Avoiding Data Overload, and Gathering Outside Perspectives.

FIGURE F-1 The first three key areas: Defining the Unknown, Avoiding Data Overload, and Gathering Outside Perspectives.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
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FIGURE F-2 The second three key areas: Synthesizing Data into Narrative, Communicating to Key Stakeholders, and Advice.

FIGURE F-2 The second three key areas: Synthesizing Data into Narrative, Communicating to Key Stakeholders, and Advice.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
FIGURE F-3 Overall observations of workshop attendees.

FIGURE F-3 Overall observations of workshop attendees.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 79
Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 80
Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 81
Suggested Citation:"Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 82
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The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing.

The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

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