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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2 (2010)

Chapter: Appendix C Workshop Attendees

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Workshop Attendees." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
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Appendix C
Workshop Attendees

Following is a list of the participants in the November 5, 2009, Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop held in San Francisco, California, by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies.

GUESTS

Stewart Brand, The Long Now Foundation

Mark Culpepper, SunEdison

Richard Genik II, Emergent Technology Research Division, Wayne State University

Philip Koh, Gartner Advisory (Singapore Pte Ltd.)

Darrell Long, Jack Baskin School of Engineering, University of California, Soquel

William Mark, SRI International

Mark McCormick, McLiera Partners, LLC

Jim O’Connor, Monvia

Benjamin Reed, Yahoo! Research

Ray Strong, IBM

Paul Twohey, Trumpet Technologies

Stan Vonog, Musigy

Philip Wong, The Walt Disney Company

Michael Zyda, University of Southern California GamePipe Laboratory, Department of Computer Science

COMMITTEE MEMBERS

Gilman Louie, Chair, Alsop Louie Partners

Harry Blount, DISCERN

Stephen Drew, Drew Solutions, Inc.

Danny Gray, Case Western Reserve University

Jennie Hwang, H-Technologies Group

Fred Lybrand, Elmarco, Inc.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Workshop Attendees." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
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Paul Saffo, Saffo.com

Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network

Alfonso Velosa III, Gartner, Inc.

Norman Winarsky, SRI International

NRC STAFF

Daniel Talmage, Study Director

Sarah Lovell, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow

Kamara Brown, Research Associate

Shannon Thomas, Program Associate

FACILITATORS AND VISUAL PRACTITIONER

Derek Bothereau, Monitor 360

Jessie Goldhammer, Monitor 360

Carolyn Mansfield, Monitor 360

Phil Nolan, Monitor 360

Teresa Smith, Monitor 360

Lynn Curruthers, Global Business Network

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Workshop Attendees." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 74
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C Workshop Attendees." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12834.
×
Page 75
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The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing.

The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

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