ENVISIONING THE 2020 CENSUS
Lawrence D. Brown, Michael L. Cohen, Daniel L. Cork, and Constance F. Citro, Editors
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no. YA1323-06-CN-0031 between the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Academy of Sciences. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (No. SES-0453930). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2010). Envisioning the 2020 Census. Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations and Experiments. Lawrence D. Brown, Michael L. Cohen, Daniel L. Cork, and Constance F. Citro, eds. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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PANEL ON THE DESIGN OF THE 2010 CENSUS PROGRAM OF EVALUATIONS AND EXPERIMENTS
LAWRENCE D. BROWN (Chair),
Department of Statistics, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania
RICHARD A. BERK,
Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania
ERIC T. BRADLOW,
Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania
IVAN P. FELLEGI,
Statistics Canada (retired), Ottawa
LINDA GAGE,
California Department of Finance, Sacramento
VIJAY NAIR,
Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
JESSE H. POORE, JR.,
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Madison
ALLEN L. SCHIRM,
Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC
JUDITH A. SELTZER,
Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles
STANLEY K. SMITH,
Department of Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville
JOHN H. THOMPSON,
National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
ROGER TOURANGEAU,
Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, College Park
KIRK WOLTER,
National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Co-Study Director
DANIEL L. CORK, Co-Study Director
AGNES E. GASKIN, Administrative Assistant
MEYER ZITTER, Consultant
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2008–2009
WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair),
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM,
Department of Economics and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland
ALICIA CARRIQUIRY,
Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
WILLIAM DUMOUCHEL,
Phase Forward, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts
JOHN C. HALTIWANGER,
Department of Economics, University of Maryland
V. JOSEPH HOTZ,
Department of Economics, Duke University
KAREN KAFADAR,
Department of Statistics, Indiana University, Bloomington
DOUGLAS S. MASSEY,
Department of Sociology, Princeton University
SALLY MORTON,
Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
JOSEPH NEWHOUSE,
Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University
SAMUEL H. PRESTON,
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
HAL STERN,
Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine
ROGER TOURANGEAU,
Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
ALAN ZASLAVSKY,
Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director
Acknowledgments
The Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations and Experiments (CPEX) wishes to thank the many people who have contributed to our work. The panel is indebted to former Deputy Director Preston Jay Waite’s support during the developmental stage of the study and to the continued support from Daniel Weinberg, assistant director for decennial census and American Community Survey. Deborah Bolton and Randall Neugebauer ably served as principal liaisons between the Census Bureau and the panel, assisted by Gary Chappell, Joyce Price, Jennifer Reichert, and Donna Souders. All of these Census Bureau staff were responsive to requests from the panel for help in the development of agendas, the collection of supporting materials, and assistance with other logistical details. They have been a pleasure to work with.
Also, a number of Census Bureau personnel provided extremely useful presentations and supporting materials during the panel’s meetings in April 2007, July 2007, April 2008, July 2008, November 2008, and February 2009. In this regard, we would like to thank Teresa Angueira, Michael Bentley, Larry Cahoon, Joan Hill, Elizabeth Martin, Mary Mulry, Manuel de la Puente, Jennifer Reichert, Courtney Reiser, Annetta Clark Smith, and Frank Vitrano. Many of these individuals, along with others, also contributed to three very productive small group meetings of the panel (held in July 2007), and here we would like to mention interactions with Nancy Bates, William Bell, Sharon Boyer, Mary Destasio, Donna Kostanich, Laurel Schwede, Jennifer Tancreto, and Jim Treat. We would like to single out Jim Treat to thank him for his help in learning about a number of disparate areas of census planning, experimentation, and evaluation.
Our panel also benefited from the contributions of a number of outside speakers at our plenary meetings who gave generously of their talents. We thank Mick Couper, University of Michigan, and John Czajka, Mathe-
matica Policy Research, Inc., for their thoughtful presentations on Internet data collection and administrative records, respectively. Rosemary Bender of Statistics Canada provided useful insight on census research in Canada, contributing to a discussion organized by panel member Ivan Fellegi. Finally, Marios Hadjieleftheriou of AT&T spoke about the possible structure of a master trace system and the use of such systems in industry.
We would like to thank Constance Citro, along with Jay Waite, for developing the study. In addition, Connie participated actively in our panel meetings and helped with writing and editing this report, providing her usual insightful comments and suggestions. Her knowledge and experience of census history and procedures proved to be an essential and invaluable addition to our deliberations. We would also like to thank Meyer Zitter, consultant to the panel, for also providing important, experienced perspectives on the census and in particular for his advice on the potential use of administrative records in census taking. We express our gratitude to Agnes Gaskin, who has seen to it that the meetings of the panel run as smoothly as possible, facilitating the travel and other needs of the panel members, and formatting this report. The panel is also indebted to Christine McShane, who provided expert technical editing of the draft report.
Michael Cohen and Daniel Cork served as extraordinarily effective and essential co-directors for the work of the panel. They admirably fulfilled their responsibility for compiling, organizing and presenting most of the background material and basic research appearing in the report, and for skillfully organizing and drafting the report so as to integrate the panel’s opinions and concerns along with our individual contributions. They were responsible from the side of the panel in arranging our cooperative interactions with the Census Bureau, which have been essential in our deliberations. And their experience and common sense helped keep us on track and focused as a panel during meetings and during the process of writing our interim and final reports.
Finally, it has been a pleasure interacting with a very talented, energetic, and collaborative panel as we considered plans for evaluation of the 2010 census and for research and development to be carried out in the next decade to achieve as cost effective as possible a census in 2020.
This final report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the
following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Betsy Ancker-Johnson, vice president (retired), General Motors Corporation; John L. Czajka, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC; Shoreh Elhami, GIS director, Delaware County Auditor’s Office, Delaware, OH; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; Daniel B. Levine, Statistics, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD; Betsy Martin, consultant, Alexandria, VA; C. Matthew Snipp, Department of Sociology, Stanford University; and Alan M. Zaslavsky, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.
In addition, we thank the following individuals who served as reviewers for Experimentation and Evaluation Plans for the 2010 Census: Interim Report, which is reprinted in Part II of this volume: C.A. (Al) Irvine, consultant, San Diego, CA; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; J. Michael Oakes, Division of Epidemiology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis; Joseph Salvo, Population Division, New York City Department of City Planning, New York City, NY; Robert Scardamalia, Center for Research and Information Analysis, Department of Economic Development, Albany, NY; Frederick J. Scheuren, consultant, Alexandria, VA; and Judith M. Tanur, Department of Sociology and Behavior, State University of New York, Stony Brook. Finally, we thank the reviewers of the panel’s February 2009 letter report, which is reprinted as Part III of this volume: Barbara A. Bailar, independent consultant, Washington, DC; John L. Czajka, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC; C.A. (Al) Irvine, consultant, San Diego, CA; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; and Colm A. O’Muircheartaigh, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies, The University of Chicago.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Samuel H. Preston, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, and William F. Eddy, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Lawrence D. Brown, Chair
Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census
Program of Evaluations and Experiments
List of Figures
Part I:
Final Report
B-1 |
2010 Alternative Questionnaire Experiment, control questionnaires |
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B-2 |
2010 Alternative Questionnaire Experiment, structures of combined race and Hispanic origin question |
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B-3 |
2010 Alternative Questionnaire Experiment, variations on race question |
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B-4 |
2010 Alternative Questionnaire Experiment, variations on Hispanic question and hybrid approaches |
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B-5 |
2010 Alternative Questionnaire Experiment, other residence panel |
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B-6 |
2010 nonresponse follow-up enumerator questionnaire, record of contact box |
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B-7 |
2010 Confidentiality/Privacy Notification Experiment, control and experimental treatments |
Part II:
Interim Report
List of Tables
Part I:
Final Report
2-1 |
Estimates of Percentage Net Undercount, by Race, from Demographic Analysis, 1940–2000 (in Percent) |
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2-2 |
Per Housing Unit Costs, 1960–2010 U.S. Censuses |
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2-3 |
Census Bureau Life-Cycle Cost Estimates for the 2010 Census (covering fiscal years 2002–2013) |
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2-4 |
Coverage Improvement Programs and Procedures, 1970–2010 Censuses—Address List Development |
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2-5 |
Coverage Improvement Programs and Procedures, 1970–2010 Censuses—Publicity/Outreach |
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2-6 |
Coverage Improvement Programs and Procedures, 1970–2010 Censuses—Initial Enumeration Methods |
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2-7 |
Coverage Improvement Programs and Procedures, 1970–2010 Censuses—Follow-Up of Mail Returns |
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2-8 |
Coverage Improvement Programs and Procedures, 1970–2010 Censuses—NRFU (Nonresponse Follow-Up) and Post-NRFU |
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B-1 |
2010 Deadline Messaging/Compressed Schedule Experiment, deadline message treatments by form type |
Part II:
Interim Report
1-1 |
Topic Headings, 2010 CPEX Research Proposals and 2000 Census Evaluation Program |