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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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CLIMATE STABILIZATION TARGETS

Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia

Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by the The Energy Foundation under contract number G-0812-10616 and The Environmental Protection Agency under contract number EP10H001368. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.

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National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×

COMMITTEE ON STABILIZATION TARGETS FOR ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS

SUSAN SOLOMON (Chair),

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO

DAVID BATTISTI,

University of Washington, Seattle, WA

SCOTT DONEY,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA

KATHARINE HAYHOE,

Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX

ISAAC M. HELD,

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ

DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER,

University of Washington, Seattle, WA

DAVID LOBELL,

Stanford University, Stanford, CA

H. DAMON MATTHEWS,

Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec

RAYMOND PIERREHUMBERT,

University of Chicago, Chicago, IL

MARILYN RAPHAEL,

University of California, Los Angeles, CA

RICHARD RICHELS,

Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, DC

TERRY L. ROOT,

Stanford University, Stanford, CA

KONRAD STEFFEN,

University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

CLAUDIA TEBALDI,

Climate Central, Vancouver, British Columbia

GARY W. YOHE,

Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT

NRC Staff

TOBY WARDEN, Study Director

LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate

EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer

DAVID REIDMILLER, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Fellow

SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant

RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant

DANIEL BEARRS, Senior Librarian

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair),

University of Maryland, College Park

ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

RICHARD CARBONE,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

WALTER F. DABBERDT,

Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, CO

KIRSTIN DOW,

University of South Carolina, Columbia

GREG S. FORBES,

The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, GA

ISAAC HELD,

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ

ARTHUR LEE,

Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, CA

RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT,

University of Chicago, Illinois

KIMBERLY PRATHER,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA

KIRK R. SMITH,

University of California, Berkeley

JOHN T. SNOW,

University of Oklahoma, Norman

THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,

Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins

XUBIN ZENG,

University of Arizona, Tucson

Ex Officio Members

GERALD A. MEEHL,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

NRC Staff

CHRIS ELFRING, Director

EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer

MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer

TOBY WARDEN, Program Officer

MAGGIE WALSER, Associate Program Officer

JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

KATIE WELLER, Research Associate

LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant

JANEISE STURDIVANT, Program Assistant

RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant

SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate

DAVID REIDMILLER, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Fellow

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×

Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:

Marcia Baker, University of Washington

Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey

William Easterling, Pennsylvania State University

Jay Gulledge, Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Prasad Kasibhatla, Duke University

Haroon Khesghi, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company

Jeffrey T. Kiehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Corinne LeQuere, University of East Anglia

Gerald R. North, Texas A&M University

Matthias Ruth, University of Maryland

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert E. Dickinson, The University of Texas at Austin, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and George M. Hornberger, Vanderbilt University Institute for

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×

Energy and Environment, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The committee would like to thank the following individuals who offered direct input to the committee with meeting presentations and personal, phone, or email discussions, including: Todd J. Sanford, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CIRES, Kirsten Zickfield, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Michael Eby, University of Victoria, Jonathan Patz, University of Wisconsin, Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Joseph Goffman, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Dan Reifsnyder, U.S. Department of State, Reto Knutti, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Jeffrey Kiehl, NCAR, Leon Clark, PNNL, Eric Steig, University of Washington, Nigel Arnell, University of Reading, Phil Mote, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and Oregon Climate Services, Samuel Myers, Harvard University, and Andrew Weaver, Concordia University.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12877.
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Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe. Emissions reductions decisions made today matter in determining impacts experienced not just over the next few decades, but in the coming centuries and millennia.

According to Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia, important policy decisions can be informed by recent advances in climate science that quantify the relationships between increases in carbon dioxide and global warming, related climate changes, and resulting impacts, such as changes in streamflow, wildfires, crop productivity, extreme hot summers, and sea level rise. One way to inform these choices is to consider the projected climate changes and impacts that would occur if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stabilized at a particular concentration level. The book quantifies the outcomes of different stabilization targets for greenhouse gas concentrations using analyses and information drawn from the scientific literature. Although it does not recommend or justify any particular stabilization target, it does provide important scientific insights about the relationships among emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and impacts.

Climate Stabilization Targets emphasizes the importance of 21st century choices regarding long-term climate stabilization. It is a useful resource for scientists, educators and policy makers, among others.

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