VERIFYING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
METHODS TO SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AGREEMENTS
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the United States intelligence community. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the intelligence community.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15211-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15211-9
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Cover: Major sources and sinks of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Cover design by Van Nguyen.
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON METHODS FOR ESTIMATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
STEPHEN W. PACALA (Chair),
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
CLARE BREIDENICH, Independent Consultant,
Seattle, Washington
PETER G. BREWER,
Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California
INEZ FUNG,
University of California, Berkeley
MICHAEL R. GUNSON,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
GEMMA HEDDLE,
Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
BEVERLY LAW,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
GREGG MARLAND,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
KEITH PAUSTIAN,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins
MICHAEL PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
JAMES T. RANDERSON,
University of California, Irvine
PIETER TANS,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
STEVEN C. WOFSY,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
National Research Council Staff
ANNE M. LINN, Study Director, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
JANEISE STURDIVANT, Program Assistant, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair),
University of Maryland, College Park
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD CARBONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES,
The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ISAAC HELD,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ARTHUR LEE,
Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT,
University of Chicago
KIMBERLY PRATHER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
KIRK R. SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
XUBIN ZENG,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Member
GERALD A. MEEHL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
National Research Council Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Associate Program Officer
TOBY WARDEN, Associate Program Officer
JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
KATIE WELLER, Research Associate
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY-ANN FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
Foreword
Agreements to limit emissions of greenhouse gases are a current focus of international negotiations. Such agreements are sought partly because gases emitted from each nation spread globally in the atmosphere—a relatively inert gas spreads quickly in an east-west direction, then vertically and in a north-south direction. For gases with survival times of more than few years (such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, many fluorinated hydrocarbons, but not ozone), constant emissions in the northern hemisphere result in nearly equal atmospheric amounts both north and south of the equator after several years.
National targets for emissions are being discussed worldwide, as are baseline years against which changes are to be compared. But how well can we determine whether a nation is meeting its targets and how well do we know nation-by-nation emissions in baseline years, past or future? From my own research in atmospheric chemistry, I know that little research has been done to answer these questions. Similarly, governments have not focused much attention on how well these quantities can be estimated and monitored.
Physical scientists might assume that monitoring and verification would be based on physical measurements of greenhouse gases in air and water and processes involving soils and vegetation. Business leaders and diplomats might assume that self-reported data based on activities like fossil-fuel usage and other measures would be used for monitoring and verification. This report shows how data from both realms can be used and also how to improve the respective estimates.
The details of future agreements are not yet known; for example, will responsibilities apply to single nations or to multination regions? Will individual baseline comparison years be employed or will rates of decreases in emissions be specified differently? The authoring committee provides answers to some anticipated monitoring and verification requirements while also creating a framework from which specific information can be drawn, along with ways to improve scientific capabilities. Future agreements or carbon markets might include credits for uptake of carbon dioxide. This report’s discussion of agriculture, forestry, and other land-use activities can lead to improved, scientifically based estimates of the accuracy of uptake rates and methods of monitoring them.
This study was initiated by the National Research Council because of our perception that the questions above had not received enough attention from scientists, engineers, or governments. The authoring committee could draw from a very limited literature on these subjects and some of their findings and conclusions are original.
The extent to which monitoring and verification requirements will be incorporated into future international agreements on greenhouse gases and/or carbon markets will be decided by political and business leaders. This report informs those communities and scientists as to our current capabilities and also how to improve those capabilities over time. The committee chair, Professor Stephen Pacala, the other committee members, Dr. Anne Linn, and the reviewers deserve our thanks for this excellent report.
Ralph J. Cicerone
Chairman, National Research Council and President, National Academy of Sciences
Preface
Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for a variety of purposes, including gauging the success of mitigation measures, conducting basic research on biogeochemical cycles, and carrying out agency operations. Such estimates are made for a variety of gases, at a variety of scales and with a wide range of uncertainties. With negotiations for a climate treaty under way, it is timely to ask how well the greenhouse gas emissions of individual countries can be monitored and verified, and what improvements can be made to support a treaty. The National Research Council’s Committee on Methods for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions was established to carry out the following study:
The study will review current methods and propose improved methods for estimating and verifying greenhouse gas emissions at different spatial (e.g., national, regional, global) and temporal (e.g., annual, decadal) scales. The greenhouse gases to be considered are carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and perfluorinated hydrocarbons (PFCs). Emissions of soot and sulfur compounds along with precursors of tropospheric ozone may also be considered. The results would be useful for a variety of applications, including carbon trading, setting emissions reduction targets, and monitoring and verifying international treaties on climate change.
The committee met four times to gather input, deliberate, and write its report. After its last meeting, the committee prepared a letter report on the capabilities of CO2-sensing satellites to monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions. The most promising of these satellites—the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory—had failed at launch, and a decision on whether to replace it was expected before the committee’s final report was completed. A final decision on a replacement mission has not yet been made, and the information and analysis in the letter report are included in this final report.
The committee thanks the individuals who briefed the committee or provided other input: Fred Ambrose, Richard Birdsey, Mausami Desai, Leon Fuerth, Jeffery Goebel, Samuel Goward, Kevin Gurney, Bill Irving, Maurice LeFranc, Michael Levi, Hank Margolis, Paul McArdle, Gilbert Metcalf, Joseph Norbeck, Lee Schipper, Dale Simbeck, Karen Treanton, Riccardo Valentini, Rod Venterea, Wenwen Wang, Zhonghua Yang, and Linda Zall. The committee also wishes to thank the NRC staff in general and Anne Linn in particular for exceptional efficiency, supernatural patience, expert editing, and good humor. Her knowledge and assistance were critical and she made the process a pleasure.
Stephen W. Pacala, Chair
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Scott Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
Emanuel Gloor, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
Richard Goody, Harvard University (emeritus), Falmouth, Massachusetts
Isaac Held, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
Richard Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center, Massachusetts
Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
Denise Mauzerall, Princeton University, New Jersey
Arvin Mosier, U.S. Department of Agriculture (retired), Mount Pleasant, South Carolina
Michael Obersteiner, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Paul Wennberg, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William L. Chameides, Duke University, and Charles E. Kolb, Aerodyne Research, Inc. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.