National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×

S&T STRATEGIES OF SIX COUNTRIES

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

Committee on Global Science and Technology Strategies and Their Effect on U.S. National Security

Standing Committee on Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This is a report of work supported by Contract No. HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIES AND THEIR EFFECT ON U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

C. D. (DAN) MOTE, JR. (NAE), Chair,

University of Maryland

JOHN GANNON, Vice Chair,

BAE Systems

RAKESH AGRAWAL (NAE),

Microsoft Search Labs

ROBERT BRODERSEN (NAE),

University of California, Berkeley

DANIEL T. CHIU,

University of Washington

JACQUELINE FLETCHER,

Oklahoma State University

PAUL C. GAILEY,

Fetzer Memorial Trust

HENDRIK F. HAMANN, IBM T.J.

Watson Research Center

DANIEL E. HASTINGS,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

THOMAS R. HOWELL,

Dewey & LeBoeuf

DONALD H. LEVY (NAS),

University of Chicago

FRANCES S. LIGLER (NAE),

Naval Research Laboratory

HEATHER J. MacLEAN,

Idaho National Laboratory

FAWWAZ T. ULABY (NAE),

University of Michigan

KATHLEEN A. WALSH,

U.S. Naval War College

HEATHER WILSON,

Heather Wilson & Company, LLC

Staff

DANIEL E. J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director

KAMARA E. BROWN, Research Associate

MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator

SHANNON C. H. THOMAS, Program Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
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Preface

In the spring of 2009, the Office of the Chief Scientist, Central Intelligence Agency, and the Defense Warning Office of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to review and analyze the science and technology (S&T) advancement strategies of six countries and to judge their likely impact on U.S. national security and competitiveness at present and over the coming 3 to 5 years and 10+ years. The sponsors also asked the NRC for recommendations to the U.S. government based on the study findings.

We wish to express our appreciation to the members of the committee for their diligent and dedicated contributions to the study and to the preparation of this report. The committee’s diverse experience contributed greatly to the broad perspective on S&T in the 21st century that is incorporated in this report. The committee is also grateful to the CIA and DIA for their sponsorship and to the intelligence community for its active participation throughout the study. The committee cannot thank the NRC staff members Dennis Chamot, Daniel Talmage, Marguerite Schneider, Kamara Brown, and Shannon Thomas too effusively for their dedication to the study and to the preparation of this report.


C. Dan Mote, Chair

John Gannon, Vice Chair

Committee on Global Science and Technology Strategies and Their Effect on U.S. National Security

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

R. Stephen Berry, NAS, Franck Institute,

Arthur I. Bienenstock, Stanford University,

Vinton G. Cerf, NAE, Google, Inc.,

Diane E. Griffin, NAS, IOM, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,

Richard Johnson, Arnold & Porter, LLC,

Jonathan D. Moreno, University of Pennsylvania Health System,

R. Byron Pipes, NAE, Purdue University, and

Paul Saffo, Saffo.com.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Julia Phillips (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×
   

 Regional S&T Integration,

 

20

   

 Academic Publications and Patents,

 

20

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

20

   

 References,

 

21

   

 Published,

 

21

   

 Unpublished,

 

21

4

 

CHINA

 

22

   

 Introduction,

 

22

   

 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy,

 

23

   

 National S&T Goals,

 

24

   

 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency,

 

25

   

 S&T Investments of Interest,

 

26

   

 Information Technology and Communications Sector,

 

26

   

 Energy,

 

27

   

 Biotechnology,

 

28

   

 Integration of China’s S&T and Industrial Development with Defense Modernization,

 

29

   

 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement,

 

29

   

 R&D Funding,

 

30

   

 S&T Personnel,

 

30

   

 Research Publications,

 

30

   

 Patents,

 

31

   

 Possible Scenarios in Chinese S&T,

 

31

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

32

   

 References,

 

33

   

 Published,

 

33

   

 Unpublished,

 

34

5

 

INDIA

 

35

   

 Introduction,

 

35

   

 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy,

 

36

   

 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency,

 

38

   

 S&T Investments of Interest,

 

38

   

 Key Programs Under the 11th Five-Year Plan,

 

38

   

 Major Accomplishments During the 10th Five-Year Plan,

 

39

   

 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement,

 

40

   

 R&D Funding,

 

40

   

 Human Resources,

 

40

   

 Higher Education,

 

41

   

 Research Publications,

 

41

   

 Patents,

 

41

   

 Conclusion,

 

42

   

 High Aspirations and Unifying Vision,

 

42

   

 Increasing Confidence in Indigenous Capabilities,

 

42

   

 Emergence of Globally Competitive Business Enterprises in Automotives, Pharmaceuticals, Information Technology, and Telecommunications,

 

42

   

 Suspicion of Neighboring Countries and Fear of Technology Denial,

 

42

   

 Inefficiency in Innovation,

 

43

   

 Development Challenges,

 

43

   

 Implications for the United States,

 

43

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×
   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

43

   

 Bibliography,

 

44

6

 

JAPAN

 

46

   

 Introduction,

 

46

   

 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy,

 

47

   

 Institutional Reforms,

 

47

   

 Increased Government Funding for R&D,

 

48

   

 University-Industry Partnerships,

 

48

   

 Reform of the Patent System,

 

49

   

 Green Innovation,

 

49

   

 Japan’s National Security Concerns,

 

49

   

 Role of Science and Technology in Addressing Security Concerns,

 

50

   

 Military R&D,

 

50

   

 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency,

 

51

   

 S&T Investments of Interest,

 

51

   

 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement,

 

54

   

 University-Industry Partnerships,

 

54

   

 Foreign Direct Investment,

 

56

   

 Start-ups,

 

56

   

 Social and Demographic Indicators,

 

56

   

 Patents,

 

57

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

57

   

 References,

 

58

   

 Published,

 

58

   

 Unpublished,

 

58

7

 

RUSSIA

 

59

   

 Introduction,

 

59

   

 Modernization of State-Owned Industries,

 

61

   

 Improved R&D Environment,

 

62

   

 “New Schools” Initiative,

 

62

   

 Military Infrastructure,

 

62

   

 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy,

 

63

   

 Short-Term Goals—2012,

 

63

   

 Mid-Term Goals—2015,

 

64

   

 Long-Term Goals—2025,

 

64

   

 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency,

 

64

   

 S&T Investments of Interest,

 

65

   

 Medical Technology, Medical Equipment, and Pharmaceuticals,

 

65

   

 Energy Efficiency, Generation, and Distribution,

 

66

   

 Applications of Nuclear Fission and Fusion,

 

66

   

 Telecommunications and Space Technology,

 

66

   

 Computer and Information Technology,

 

67

   

 Nanotechnology to Support Priority Areas,

 

67

   

 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement,

 

68

   

 Share of Nongovernmental Funding,

 

68

   

 Level of Foreign S&T Investments,

 

69

   

 S&T Personnel,

 

69

   

 Export of High-Technology Products,

 

69

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
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 Findings and Recommendations,

 

69

   

 Conclusion,

 

70

   

 Need for Transformation,

 

70

   

 Lack of Qualified Leadership,

 

70

   

 Rejection of International Partnerships,

 

71

   

 References,

 

71

   

 Published,

 

71

   

 Unpublished,

 

73

8

 

SINGAPORE

 

74

   

 Introduction,

 

74

   

 Net Assessment of S&T Investment Strategy,

 

75

   

 S&T Investments of Interest,

 

76

   

 Projected Advances in S&T Proficiency,

 

77

   

 Nation-Specific Indicators of S&T Advancement,

 

77

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

78

   

 References,

 

79

   

 Published,

 

79

   

 Unpublished,

 

80

9

 

MILITARY AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS

 

81

   

 Introduction,

 

81

   

 Grasping the Task,

 

81

   

 Current Context,

 

83

   

 The Expanding Global Threat Assessment,

 

84

   

 Identifying Drivers,

 

84

   

 Flagging Uncertainty,

 

85

   

 Assessing Military Impact,

 

85

   

 Net Assessment by Country,

 

86

   

 China,

 

86

   

 Singapore,

 

87

   

 India,

 

87

   

 Brazil,

 

88

   

 Japan,

 

89

   

 Russia,

 

89

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

89

   

 References,

 

90

10

 

RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES FOR THE UNITED STATES

 

92

   

 Introduction,

 

92

   

 21st-Century Global Science and Technology Innovation Environment,

 

92

   

 Indicators of Science and Technology Achievement Are Country Specific,

 

96

   

 S&T Talent in High Demand in All Countries,

 

97

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

 

   

 A  Biographical Sketches of Committee Members,

 

101

   

 B  Meetings and Speakers,

 

108

Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
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Acronyms and Abbreviations

A*STAR Agency for Science, Technology and Research (of Singapore)

BMD ballistic missile defense

BPD barrels per day

BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China

CIA Central Intelligence Agency

CNPq Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (Council for Scientific and Technological Development)

CRS Congressional Research Service

CSIR Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (Government of India)

CSTP Council for Science and Technology Policy (Government of Japan)

DAE Department of Atomic Energy

DIA Defense Intelligence Agency

DOD Department of Defense (United States)

DPJ Democratic Party of Japan

DST Department of Science & Technology (Government of India)

DSTA Defence Science and Technology Agency (Government of Singapore)

EDA electronic design automation

ERA Emergency Reaction to Accidents

FDI foreign direct investment

FINEP Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (Financier of Studies and Projects)

FYP five-year plan

GCI global competitiveness index

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×

GDP gross domestic product

GERD gross expenditure on research and development

GET-UP Growing Enterprises with Technology Upgrade (Singapore)

GLONASS Global’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (Global Navigation Satellite System)

GNP gross national product

GPS global positioning system

GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle

GWe gigawatt-electric

HTI High Tech Indicator

IC intelligence community

IED improvised explosive device

IGS information gathering satellite

IITs Indian Institutes of Technology

IMD International Institute for Management Development

IMF International Monetary Fund

INCT Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (National Institute of Science and Technology)

INSAT Indian National Satellite System

IP intellectual property

ISSCC International Solid State Circuits Conference

IT information technology

ITC innovative-technological centers

JBRICS Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Singapore

KAM Knowledge Assessment Methodology

KIP Knowledge Innovation Program

MDA model-driven architecture

MLTP Medium and Long Term Plan for S&T

MTI Ministry of Trade and Industry (Government of Singapore)

MRI magnetic resonance imaging

MWe megawatt-electric

NAE National Academy of Engineering

NIAC national information analytical center

NIC National Intelligence Council (of the United States)

NIE National Intelligence Estimate

NISTADS National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies

NISTEP National Institute of Science and Technology Policy

NRC National Research Council

NSF National Science Foundation

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PACTI Plano de Ação, Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação para o Desenvolvimiento Nacional (Action Plan on Science, Technology and Innovation for National Development)

PDM product data management

PHWR pressurized heavy-water reactor

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12920.
×

PPP purchasing power parity

PRC People’s Republic of China

PSA Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser (India)

PV photovoltaic

PWR pressurized water reactor

QDR Quadrennial Defense Review

R&D research and development

RD&I research, development, and innovation

RIEC Research Innovation & Enterprise Council

S&T science and technology

SARS severe acute respiratory syndrome

SERC Science and Engineering Research Council (of Singapore)

SPRING Standards, Productivity, and Innovation Board

ST&I science, technology, and innovation

STEM science, technology, engineering, and mathematics

TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review

UAV unmanned aerial vehicle

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An increase in global access to goods and knowledge is transforming world-class science and technology (S&T) by bringing it within the capability of an unprecedented number of global parties who must compete for resources, markets, and talent. In particular, globalization has facilitated the success of formal S&T plans in many developing countries, where traditional limitations can now be overcome through the accumulation and global trade of a wide variety of goods, skills, and knowledge. As a result, centers for technological research and development (R&D) are now globally dispersed, setting the stage for greater uncertainty in the political, economic, and security arenas.

These changes will have a potentially enormous impact for the U.S. national security policy, which for the past half century was premised on U.S. economic and technological dominance. As the U.S. monopoly on talent and innovation wanes, arms export regulations and restrictions on visas for foreign S&T workers are becoming less useful as security strategies. The acute level of S&T competition among leading countries in the world today suggests that countries that fail to exploit new technologies or that lose the capability for proprietary use of their own new technologies will find their existing industries uncompetitive or obsolete. The increased access to information has transformed the 1950s' paradigm of "control and isolation" of information for innovation control into the current one of "engagement and partnerships" between innovators for innovation creation. Current and future strategies for S&T development need to be considered in light of these new realities.

This book analyzes the S&T strategies of Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Singapore (JBRICS), six countries that have either undergone or are undergoing remarkable growth in their S&T capabilities for the purpose of identifying unique national features and how they are utilized in the evolving global S&T environment.

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