MONITORING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
The National Academies Press
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the United States intelligence community. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the intelligence community or any of its sub-agencies.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15871-8
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15871-0
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON INDICATORS FOR UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
MARK R. ABBOTT (Chair),
Oregon State University, Corvallis
ROBERT A. BINDSCHADLER (Vice Chair),
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
RITA COLWELL,
University of Maryland, College Park
JEFF DOZIER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
DARRELL G. HERD,
Defense Intelligence Agency, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM HOOKE,
American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C.
JOHN A. ORCUTT,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
HERMAN H. SHUGART,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
STEVEN WOFSY,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
CURTIS MARSHALL, Study Director (until October 2009)
KATHERINE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
CLIMATE, ENERGY, AND NATIONAL SECURITY TOPICAL PANELS
Panel on Atmosphere
STEVEN WOFSY (Chair),
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
MICHAEL J. PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
SCOTT SANDGATHE,
University of Washington, Seattle
CHRISTOPHER S. VELDEN,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
Panel on Oceans (Biological and Chemical)
MARK R. ABBOTT (Chair),
Oregon State University, Corvallis
ROBERT A. DUCE,
Texas A&M University, College Station
SHARON L. SMITH,
University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida
ROBERT TWILLEY,
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
Panel on the Cryosphere
ROBERT A. BINDSCHADLER (Chair),
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
KENNETH JEZEK,
The Ohio State University, Columbus
RON KWOK,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
NORBERT UNTERSTEINER,
University of Washington, Seattle
H. JAY ZWALLY,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Panel on Human Health and Other Dimensions
RITA COLWELL (Chair),
University of Maryland, College Park
JONATHAN A. PATZ,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
JEFFREY SHAMAN,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
DOUGLAS S. WAY,
MDA Federal, Rockville, Maryland
THOMAS J. WILBANKS,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee
Panel on Hydrology and Water Resources
JEFF DOZIER (Chair),
University of California, Santa Barbara
JAMES S. FAMIGLIETTI,
University of California, Irvine
DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER,
University of Washington, Seattle
DIANE M. MCKNIGHT,
University of Colorado, Boulder
Panel on Land-Surface and Terrestrial Ecosystems
HERMAN H. SHUGART (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
DAVID LOBELL,
Stanford University, California
JERRY M. MELILLO,
Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
DAVID B. WAKE,
University of California, Berkeley
CURTIS WOODCOCK,
Boston University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Panel on Natural Disasters
DARRELL G. HERD (Chair),
Defense Intelligence Agency, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM H. HOOKE,
American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C.
JAMES B. HULL,
Texas Forest Service, College Station
THOMAS B. MCCORD,
The Bear Fight Center, Winthrop, Washington
JAMES T. RANDERSON,
University of California, Irvine
DEBORAH S.K. THOMAS,
University of Colorado, Denver
Panel on Oceans (Physical)
JOHN A. ORCUTT (Chair),
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
D. JAMES BAKER,
Global Carbon Measurement Program, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
OTIS B. BROWN, JR.,
University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida
WALTER H. MUNK,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair, beginning September 2009),
University of Maryland, College Park
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD CARBONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES,
The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ISAAC HELD,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ARTHUR LEE,
Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT,
University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
KIRK R. SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
XUBIN ZENG,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Member
GERALD A. MEEHL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer
ED DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
TOBY WARDEN, Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Associate Program Officer
KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
LAUREN A. BROWN, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
JANEISE STURDIVANT, Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
Preface
In early 2008, the National Academy of Sciences began a series of activities to facilitate the increased involvement of scientists in answering questions related to climate and environmental change, energy, natural disasters, and national security. The goal is to advance scientific understanding of global climate change and other environmental and disaster-related phenomena, while considering the implications of this understanding for U.S. national security. As part of a suite of activities on climate, energy, and national security, the National Research Council (NRC) appointed the Committee on Indicators for Understanding Global Climate Change, which was tasked with identifying indicators that can increase the understanding of global climate change and environmental sustainability (see Appendix A for Statement of Task).
To begin, the committee sought input from a broad cross-section of physical, biological, and social scientists engaged in research in areas broadly related to environmental sustainability and climate change. Eight panels provided input (see pages v and vi for membership): cryosphere, land-surface and terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology and water resources, atmosphere, human health and other dimensions, oceans (both physical and biological/chemical), and natural disasters. The panels identified measurements and then metrics that, in their expert judgment, could serve as useful indicators. The panels also suggested illustrative locations around the globe where measurements of the underlying observations could be gathered. The exercise was intended to draw upon the scientific imagination of the participants and not the capabilities of any particular observing platform.
What follows in this report is the committee’s judgment of potential key metrics for monitoring climate change with an eye toward environmental sustainability.
The committee would like to thank Ric Cicone, Pam Matson, and Tom Parris for sharing their knowledge of environmental sustainability with the committee and panels. We would also like to thank the members of the topical panels for their hard work and dedication throughout the process and the writing of this report. The tables of indicators of climate change that they provided are an integral part of this report. Our sincerest thanks are extended to BASC Director Chris Elfring, Study Director Curtis Marshall, Associate Program Officer Katie Weller, Administrative Coordinator Rita Gaskins, and Senior Program Assistant Ricardo Payne for facilitating the committee process and the production of this report.
Mark Abbott, Chair
Committee on Indicators for Understanding Global Climate Change
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Kristen Ebi, ESS LLC., Stanford, California
Gerry Galloway, University of Maryland, College Park
Peter H. Gleick, Pacific Institute, LLC, Oakland, California
Robert Hirsch, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia
Kristina Katsaros, Retired, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Freeland, Washington
Aqqaluk Lynge, Inuit Circumpolar Council, Greenland
Clair Parkinson, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland
Tom Parris, iSciences, Burlington, Vermont
Tom Romesser, Northrop Grumman, Redondo Beach, California
Eugene Rosa, Washington State University, Pullman
Steve Running, University of Montana, Missoula
Ronald Smith, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
Karl Turekian, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Mary Albert, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Robert E. Dickinson, University of Texas, Austin, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.