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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

Summary of a Workshop

Gooloo S. Wunderlich, Rapporteur

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. N01-OD-4-2139, TO # 213 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institute on Aging. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SES-0453930). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15976-0

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15976-8

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Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2010). Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Gooloo S. Wunderlich, Rapporteur. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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STEERING COMMITTEE ON IMPROVING HEALTH CARE COST PROJECTIONS FOR THE MEDICARE POPULATION

DANA P. GOLDMAN (Chair),

Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California

ALAN M. GARBER,

Center for Health Policy and Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, School of Medicine, Stanford University

MARILYN MOON,

Health Program, American Institutes for Research, Silver Spring, Maryland

JOSEPH P. NEWHOUSE,

Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University

JONATHAN S. SKINNER,

Dartmouth Medical School and Dartmouth Institute of Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Dartmouth College

GOOLOO S. WUNDERLICH, Study Director

BRIDGET EDMONDS, Administrative Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2009-2010

WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair),

Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University

KATHARINE ABRAHAM,

Department of Economics, University of Maryland, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology

WILLIAM DuMOUCHEL,

Lincoln Technologies, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts

JOHN HALTIWANGER,

Department of Economics, University of Maryland

V. JOSEPH HOTZ,

Department of Economics, Duke University

KAREN KAFADAR,

Department of Statistics, Indiana University

SALLIE KELLER,

Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC

LISA LYNCH,

Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University

DOUGLAS MASSEY,

Department of Sociology, Princeton University

SALLY C. MORTON,

Biostatistics Department, University of Pittsburgh

JOSEPH P. NEWHOUSE,

Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University

SAMUEL H. PRESTON,

Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania

HAL S. STERN,

Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine

ROGER TOURANGEAU,

Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan

ALAN ZASLAVSKY,

Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

Acknowledgments

This report is a summary of the January 2010 workshop, Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population. The workshop was convened by the Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE) of the National Research Council (NRC). Support for the workshop was provided by the National Institute on Aging.

As chair of the steering committee, I wish to thank my colleagues on the committee for their helpful guidance and leadership in planning the workshop and moderating the sessions.

I acknowledge with appreciation the many people who participated in the workshop and contributed to its success. I thank all the presenters for their expert presentations and John N. Friedman for the background paper he prepared for the workshop. I also thank all the participants for their stimulating and insightful comments and discussion.

On behalf of the steering committee, I acknowledge with gratitude the contributions of staff. Constance F. Citro, director of CNSTAT, provided guidance and support throughout the project. Gooloo S. Wunderlich, study director, oversaw the detailed planning and organization of the workshop based on the guidance of the steering committee, as well as the preparation of this summary and responding to the comments of the reviewers. Bridget Edmonds managed the administrative details and workshop arrangements. Christine McShane, DBASSE senior editor, provided editing advice; Yvonne Wise, DBASSE production editor, processed the report through the final production; and Kirsten Sampson Snyder, DBASSE senior report review officer, efficiently shepherded the report through the report review process.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Marilyn Moon, Health Program, American Institutes for Research, Silver Spring, MD; Sally C. Morton, Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh; Karen Lynn Nonnemaker, Public Policy Institute, AARP, Washington, DC; and Barry M. Popkin, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Melvin Worth, Senior Institute of Medicine Fellow (retired), Sun City Center, FL. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution.


Dana P. Goldman, Chair

Steering Committee on Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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Developing credible short-term and long-term projections of Medicare health care costs is critical for public- and private-sector policy planning, but faces challenges and uncertainties. There is uncertainty not only in the underlying economic and demographic assumptions used in projection models, but also in what a policy modeler assumes about future changes in the health status of the population and the factors affecting health status , the extent and pace of scientific and technological breakthroughs in medical care, the preferences of the population for particular kinds of care, the likelihood that policy makers will alter current law and regulations, and how each of these factors relates to health care costs for the elderly population.

Given the substantial growth in the Medicare population and the continued increases in Medicare, Medicaid, and private health insurance spending, the availability of well-specified models and analyses that can provide useful information on the likely cost implications of health care policy alternatives is essential. It is therefore timely to review the capabilities and limitations of extant health care cost models and to identify areas for research that offer the most promise to improve modeling, not only of current U.S. health care programs, but also of policy alternatives that may be considered in the coming years.

The National Research Council conducted a public workshop focusing on areas of research needed to improve health care cost projections for the Medicare population, and on the strengths and weaknesses of competing frameworks for projecting health care expenditures for the elderly. The workshop considered major classes of projection and simulation models that are currently used and the underlying data sources and research inputs for these models. It also explored areas in which additional research and data are needed to inform model development and health care policy analysis more broadly. The workshop, summarized in this volume, drew people from a wide variety of disciplines and perspectives, including federal agencies, academia, and nongovernmental organizations.

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