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Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop (2010)

Chapter: Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
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Appendix B
Workshop Agenda and Presenters

AGENDA

Workshop on Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

January 13, 2010

9:00–9:30 a.m.

OPENING SESSION

 

Welcome and Introductions

Dana Goldman, University of Southern California

Welcoming Remarks on Behalf of the National Academies

Constance Citro, Committee on National Statistics

Welcome and Sponsor’s Perspectives

Richard Suzman, National Institute on Aging

Background and Context of the Workshop

Dana Goldman

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

9:30–11:00

SESSION ONE

Moderator:

 

Marilyn Moon, American Institutes for Research

Relative Merits of Current Models for Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

 

 

Presenters:

A Brief Overview of Background Paper on Current Models for Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

John Friedman, Harvard University

Medicare Cost Modeling for Health Care Spending at CBO: Capabilities, Strengths, and Weaknesses

Joyce Manchester, Congressional Budget Office

OACT Long-Range Health Expenditures Projections: Assumptions, Methods, and Purposes

Richard Foster, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

Role of MEPS as a Resource for the Nation’s Economic Models and Their Projections of Health Care Expenditures and Use

Steven Cohen, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality

Comments and General Discussion

 

11:00–11:15

Break

 

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

11:15– 12:30 p.m.

SESSION TWO

Moderator:

 

Jonathan Skinner, Dartmouth Medical School

Modeling Medical Technology as a Driver of Medicare Health Care Spending

 

 

Presenters:

Current Law Brakes on Health Care Spending Growth

Michael Chernew, Harvard University

Pharmaceutical Innovation, Future Health, and Spending

Darius Lakdawalla, University of Southern California

Medical Technology as a Driver of Health Care Costs

Kenneth Thorpe, Emory University

Comments and General Discussion

 

12:30–1:30

Working Lunch—continuation of discussion

 

1:30–3:00

SESSION THREE

Moderator:

 

Joseph Newhouse, Harvard University

Factors Affecting Health Status as Drivers of Health Care Spending and Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

 

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

 

 

Presenters:

 

Health and Health Care Cost Consequences of Obesity Among the Medicare Population

Justin Trogdon, RTI International

 

Role of Socioeconomic Status and Health-Related Behaviors in Driving Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

Eileen Crimmins, University of Southern California

 

Role of Chronic Diseases and Disability in Medical Spending Among the Medicare Population

Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford University

 

Comments and General Discussion

 

3:00–3:15

Break

 

3:15–4:15

SESSION FOUR

Moderator:

 

Dana Goldman

Needed Research on Aging-Related Issues Toward the Goal of Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

 

Panel of two key participants will lead off the discussion

Eileen Crimmins, Darius Lakdawalla

Comments and General Discussion

All participants

4:15–5:00

Closing Remarks

Constance Citro, Richard Suzman, Dana Goldman

5:00

Adjourn

 

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

PRESENTERS

Jay Bhattacharya is an associate professor in the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University School of Medicine.


Michael Chernew is professor in the Department of Health Care Policy at the Harvard Medical School.


Constance F. Citro is director of the Committee on National Statistics, in the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.


Steven Cohen is director of the Center for Financing, Access, and Cost Trends at the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.


Eileen Crimmins is associate dean of the Davis School of Gerontology and professor of gerontology and sociology at the University of Southern California.


Richard Foster is chief actuary in the Office of the Actuary of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.


John N. Friedman is assistant professor of public policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.


Dana P. Goldman is professor and Norman Topping chair in medicine and public policy and director of the Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California.


Darius Lakdawalla is associate professor in the School of Policy, Planning, and Development and director of research in the Leonard Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California.


Joyce Manchester is unit chief of the Long-Term Modeling Group in the Health and Human Resources Division of the Congressional Budget Office.


Richard Suzman is associate director for behavioral and social research at the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×

Kenneth Thorpe is Robert W. Woodruff professor and chair in the Department of Health Policy and Management of the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University.


Justin Trogdon is a research economist in the Public Health Economics Program at RTI International.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×
Page 107
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×
Page 108
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×
Page 109
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×
Page 110
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×
Page 111
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda and Presenters." National Research Council. 2010. Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12985.
×
Page 112
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Developing credible short-term and long-term projections of Medicare health care costs is critical for public- and private-sector policy planning, but faces challenges and uncertainties. There is uncertainty not only in the underlying economic and demographic assumptions used in projection models, but also in what a policy modeler assumes about future changes in the health status of the population and the factors affecting health status , the extent and pace of scientific and technological breakthroughs in medical care, the preferences of the population for particular kinds of care, the likelihood that policy makers will alter current law and regulations, and how each of these factors relates to health care costs for the elderly population.

Given the substantial growth in the Medicare population and the continued increases in Medicare, Medicaid, and private health insurance spending, the availability of well-specified models and analyses that can provide useful information on the likely cost implications of health care policy alternatives is essential. It is therefore timely to review the capabilities and limitations of extant health care cost models and to identify areas for research that offer the most promise to improve modeling, not only of current U.S. health care programs, but also of policy alternatives that may be considered in the coming years.

The National Research Council conducted a public workshop focusing on areas of research needed to improve health care cost projections for the Medicare population, and on the strengths and weaknesses of competing frameworks for projecting health care expenditures for the elderly. The workshop considered major classes of projection and simulation models that are currently used and the underlying data sources and research inputs for these models. It also explored areas in which additional research and data are needed to inform model development and health care policy analysis more broadly. The workshop, summarized in this volume, drew people from a wide variety of disciplines and perspectives, including federal agencies, academia, and nongovernmental organizations.

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