National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
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MODELING THE ECONOMICS OF GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION

SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP

K. John Holmes, Rapporteur

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This study was supported by funding from the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AM01-04PI45013/DE-DT0000010/002. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-16235-7

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-16235-1

Copies of this report are available from the

National Academies Press,

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Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
×

PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON ASSESSING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION

JOHN WEYANT,

Stanford University,

Chair

MARILYN BROWN,

Georgia Institute of Technology

WILLIAM NORDHAUS,

Yale University

KAREN PALMER,

Resources for the Future

RICHARD RICHELS,

Electric Power Research Institute

STEVEN SMITH,

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Project Staff

K. JOHN HOLMES, Responsible Staff Officer,

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director,

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator,

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant,

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
×

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE,1

Delphi Technologies, Troy, Michigan, Chair

RAKESH AGRAWAL,

NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

WILLIAM BANHOLZER,

NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan

MARILYN BROWN,

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

MICHAEL CORRADINI,

NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison

PAUL DeCOTIS,

Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York

CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES,

NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station

WILLIAM FRIEND,

NAE, Bechtel Group, Inc. (retired), McLean, Virginia

SHERRI GOODMAN,

CNA, Alexandria, Virginia

NARAIN HINGORANI,

NAE,

Independent Consultant,

Los Altos Hills, California

ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Independent Consultant

Seaford, Virginia

DEBBIE NIEMEIER,

University of California, Davis

DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,

Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

DAN REICHER,

Stanford University, Stanford, California

BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE,

Daimler-Chrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan

ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Independent Consultant,

Pflugerville, Texas

MARK THIEMENS,

NAS, University of California, San Diego

RICHARD WHITE,

Oppenheimer & Company, New York

Staff

JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director,

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

DUNCAN BROWN, Senior Program Officer

DANA CAINES, Financial Associate

ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer

K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer

LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator

MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer

E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant

1

NAE, National Academy of Engineering.

2

NAS, National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
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Preface

The 2010 National Research Council (NRC) workshop “Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation” was initiated by the Department of Energy (DOE) to help address the agency’s need for improved economic modeling tools to use in the development, analysis, and implementation of policies to address greenhouse gas mitigation. As understanding improves of the issues addressed by and the relationships among the climate sciences, economics, and policy-making communities, techniques and modeling tools currently being used will have to be improved or modified. Critical elements in these activities include the understanding and modeling of new technologies as they move from demonstration to deployment.

This is the second NRC workshop organized with a focus on economic modeling issues. The first such workshop, “Assessing Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation,” was held on October 2-3, 2008, in Washington, D.C., with the goal of gaining a broader view of the variables to be accounted for and techniques used when attempting this type of modeling.1 As a follow-up, the current workshop sought to delve more deeply into some of the key issues discussed in 2008. As with the first workshop, the second was an effort to engage leaders from the policy, economic, and analytical communities in helping to define the frontiers of and provide insight into the opportunities for enhancing the capabilities of existing models to assess the economic impacts of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

This summary captures the major topics discussed at the second workshop. It does not include any consensus views of the participants or the planning committee, does not contain any conclusions or recommendations on the part of the National Research Council, and does not offer any advice to the government, nor does it represent a viewpoint of the National Academies or any of its constituent units. No priorities are implied by the order in which ideas are presented.

The workshop itself was divided into four major sessions (see Appendix A), each including a moderator, a number of distinguished speakers, and a panel of discussants who provided comments and additional perspectives on the speakers’ presentations. The workshop was planned by a committee of experts who identified the major topics for discussion and selected speakers and participants well respected in their fields (see Appendix B for short biographical sketches). Papers submitted by the workshop speakers are reprinted essentially as received in Appendix C.

1

NRC (National Research Council). 2009. Assessing Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
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I would like to thank John Weyant, Marilyn Brown, William Nordhaus, Karen Palmer, Rich Richels, and Steven Smith for their extensive work in planning and executing this project. I also extend my gratitude to each presenter and discussant who contributed to this event. Jim Zucchetto and Peter Blair of the Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences provided valuable program direction, for which I am grateful. Jonathan Yanger also deserves special recognition for his program support on this project.

This workshop would not have been possible without the financial support of its sponsor: the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Policy and International Affairs. Inja Paik and Bob Marlay of the Department of Energy provided the planning committee with useful input which helped it to develop a workshop that proved both timely and valuable to the various policy, economic, and analytic communities engaged in the many aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation.

This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for quality and objectivity. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the review process.

Thanks are extended to the following individuals for their review of this workshop summary:


Paul DeCotis, Long Island Power Authority

Robert W. Fri, Resources for the Future

Charles Goodman, Southern Company (retired)

William Nordhaus, Yale University

Karen Palmer, Resources for the Future


Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the summary, nor did they see the final draft before its release. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution.


K. John Holmes

Rapporteur

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13023.
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Models are fundamental for estimating the possible costs and effectiveness of different policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a wide array of models to perform such analysis, differing in the level of technological detail, treatment of technological progress, spatial and sector details, and representation of the interaction of the energy sector to the overall economy and environment. These differences impact model results, including cost estimates. More fundamentally, these models differ as to how they represent fundamental processes that have a large impact on policy analysis--such as how different models represent technological learning and cost reductions that come through increasing production volumes, or how different models represent baseline conditions.

Reliable estimates of the costs and potential impacts on the United States economy of various emissions reduction and other mitigation strategies are critical to the development of the federal climate change research and development portfolio. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Academies organized a workshop, summarized in this volume, to consider some of these types of modeling issues.

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